Goldman's Alec Phillips Explains Why It's "All Downhill From Here" On Census Benefits To NFP

Tyler Durden's picture

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Brett in Manhattan's picture

"No matter what, at this point nobody is willing to stick their neck out and discuss the lack of improvement in private sector hiring."

________

According to Paul Krugman, we need to start spending more, even though we have no savings and are in debt up to our eyeballs:

 

http://www.slate.com/id/9593

The Hangover Theory
Are recessions the inevitable payback for good times?
By Paul Krugman
Posted Friday, Dec. 4, 1998, at 3:30 AM ET

Powerful as these seductions may be, they must be resisted—for the hangover theory is disastrously wrongheaded. Recessions are not necessary consequences of booms. They can and should be fought, not with austerity but with liberality—with policies that encourage people to spend more, not less.

 

 

UGrev's picture

You want me to spend more, Krug? let me save up enough money so that I feel rather safe. Safe enough to know that if I can feel comfortable plunking down CASH for everything..and I mean EVERYTHING within my means. If I can't buy it with cash, I don't need it.  But I can't get there because I'm being taxed up the yowza..and I'm not able to save enough, fast enough because our money is worthless, junk!!

breezer1's picture

krugman is a classic example of what happens when you get too much education.

Ragnar D's picture

That must be the same "education" of "education spending".

Surely you mean "too much schooling".

 

Mark Twain:  "I have never let schooling get in the way of my education."

SteveNYC's picture

Reading that, convinces me that the guy is a fucking tool.

cossack55's picture

Maybe he can form a "Post-Census" hiring plan to count all the former census workers now unemployed.  Then, of course, he can hire those just counted as unemployed to count those who just counted them.  Permanent jobs, permanent war, permanent peace, permanent oil volcano.  Perfectly permanent.

MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

I was trying to come up with the wording for this 'approach'.  I think you did it justice.  I feel much better now.

Sir, you do understand why I'm here asking questions in behalf of the US Census?

Uhh, because you can't get a job anyplace else?

VK's picture

Just send all those census workers to the Gulf to count tar balls and then start cleaning up the place. That'll provide jobs for sure.

MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Crowdsourced-brilliance!  Thank you VK! 

I think I now see a way out this.  Simply apply the census-employment model to pretty much any and every problem you can identify...You can't adjust if don't measure -- so let's start counting!

I know there's probably some skeptics, but if you GET it, then you realize this approach has that infinite fiat-like quality about it.  If counting the population doesn't fix it -- then count them two or three times.  If counting tarballs doesn't normalize our world, then count the grains of sand affected by said tarballs.

If that still doesn't quite get us 'there', then the obvious thing to do is to revise the Census charter.  Rather than a mandate to count the citizenry once every 10 years, we change it to ONCE EVERY 10 MINUTES.

If they do this, I predict a flood of employment.

wolfsonite's picture

Great job copying Jon Stewart's joke --- verbatim.

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Yeah, Goldman talking down the economy....fundamentals must definetely be improving.

bada boom's picture

And which side of the office does Alec work on?

Prop = proprietary trading internal profits

or

Prop = propaganda for internal profits

I am afraid of most single headed snakes, but two headed..

Wynn's picture

"First, a quirk in the calendar meant that the payroll survey week (i.e., the week that includes the 12th of the month) tended to fall a several days later in those first few months this year than it did ten years ago."

First snow, now calender quirks; boy these bean counters sure are creative, if nothing else.

alexwest's picture

...

Most forecasters, including ourselves, consistently overestimated the effect that the census would have in the first few months of the year

...

only stupid  #ssholes would analyze this or that..

real life  analysis is pretty  simple.. read daily treasury//cbo..

#1 thorough may 2010

personal incoem taxes  down 8 % ( off horrible 2009 )

SS taxes down 3.4%

unempl benefits - all time high, running +60 % over 2009

food stamps = same all time high

 

NO RECOVERY , NO DOUBLE DIP

alex