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Goldman's Attempt To Ambush Dollar Aborted, Tactical Shorts Closed As Stop Losses Hit

Tyler Durden's picture




Just as the year end onslaught on the dollar was spearheaded to a climax by Blankfein's minions, so did Europe finally decide to convulse under an unbearable lead of ridiculous mispriced "assets" and vomited up a whole load of troubling financial data, which spread from Greece to Austria to Ireland, setting sovereign CDS to multi month highs. Obviously, this did not help the weak dollar case and cost GS traders a few hundred million.

A note to traders indicates that while Goldman has not lost the war of intergalactic domination, it too, can lose the occasional battles:

Last Friday we were stopped out of two tactical trades, long EUR/$ for a potential loss of 1.8% and long GBP/$ for a potential loss of 1.1%.

Timing was clearly not optimal, and we were too early in fading the recent improvements in US data and the impact of Greek budget tensions. The technical break of important moving averages may have amplified the Dollar rally.

However, we continue to believe that the risks to both crosses remain skewed to the upside. In particular the balance of payment situation remains very Dollar negative. We also remain focused on very stretched speculative short EUR/$ and Cable positions and the related unwinding risks. We would therefore continue to look for opportunities to position tactically for Dollar weakness.

Fear not Goldman, there is only three months at most before Bernanke announces that he will be forced to buy all MBS from the end of QE 1 into perpetuity. In the meantime we suggest you do what you do best: short the dollar and bet on the imminent demise of America's middle class.




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Mon, 12/21/2009 - 06:57 | Link to Comment Apocalypse Now
Apocalypse Now's picture

I thought Goldman recently stated (reported here in the last month) that they expected a 20% dollar rally and that it would occur between 3 days or 3 months.  It would appear that the trades listed above contradict this dollar strength statement.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 07:14 | Link to Comment estaog
estaog's picture

All their reports have a disclaimer saying their proprietary traders may take positions contrary to the analysis for clients.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 12/21/2009 - 07:14 | Link to Comment Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

I was just about to say it, but Apocalypse Now said it for me.  A month or so ago Goldman came out with a "short the EUR/USD" call saying dollar strength was coming and it was silly to be long EUR/USD at these levels.

Yet another example of Goldman bullshit.  Why anyone listens to these guys when they talk out of the side of their mouth is indeed a mystery.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Whats the word for it? When GS says or does one thing and then the opposite thing happens/ or is what they are really doing?

anyway, yup. More of God's work.

 

One thing they ought to learn, and I hope it happens, you don't fuck with the Infinite.

 

 

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 07:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 12/21/2009 - 08:31 | Link to Comment Chumly
Chumly's picture

The Yin and the Yang, Order Out of Chaos, Divide and Conquer...blah, blah, blah.  Uncle Screwtape will be proud of his minions.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

And thus the monster reversal up in EUR/USD since the first NY alarm clocks went off...  Also USD/CAD drops over 1% in that time - gold?  unchanged.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 12/21/2009 - 10:10 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Yes we had to bail out those that placed

40:1 bets against America.  Short dollar,

long oil, crush the middle class.  Then for

some reason the "crush trade" went against

them and what did they all do?  Run to

Uncle Sam to get 100 cents on the dollar.

After they got it what did they do?  Run

oil back to $70, gasoline back to $2.50,

interest rates back to 30%, and we know

they would go further if they could.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Is it more un-American to short U.S. equities or to short the USD?

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 10:46 | Link to Comment geopol
geopol's picture

un-American??

Do what ever it takes to make money, Cursive..

As for un-American..

Let the Congress be your guide..

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

It's more un-American to send your employees to Spain on the threat of a windfall profits tax, or on massive bonuses executive may receive.

Good thing Goldman doesn't need to worry ablout that though... our so-called "leaders" in Washington have them covered.

BTW, that's a nice money grabbling fat man you have next to your logo, Tyler.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Yeah and many thanks to the political critters who gave USD away like candy, fucking the voters, and unleashing this "burst" of patriotism on the USD.

 

Nice work.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 12/21/2009 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

Welcome back Tyler.  The only thing better than fresh napalm on a fine Monday morning is the bare knuckle burst of Goldman's nose.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 12/21/2009 - 13:08 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 12/21/2009 - 14:15 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

The USD rally won't stop until the Euro hits 1.3737.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 14:16 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

OK.  About that USD supply problem (which Goldman seems to have).

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dark-gray-swan-no-more-foreign-dollars-...

Remember this?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/faber-gold-and-800-sp-barrier

I quote from the latter:

"...There will come such a time in the near future, when the flight from risk assets, engineered by the Fed, will become as pervasive as today's dollar carry trade. Ultimately the Fed is more interested in low rates than 100x+ P/E's (one hopes, or else a gaggle of retarded monkeys can do Bernanke et al's job better). And with Treasury QE done, and MBS being gamed to the point where the FRBNY is doing all it can to obfuscate just what is really going on in that particular market, one can be sure that Bernanke will be all too happy to sacrifice equities at the bond altar."

Heh...

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 20:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 12/21/2009 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 12/22/2009 - 00:15 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 12/22/2009 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Marla Singer
Marla Singer's picture

We're not in the habit of censoring comments that don't have credible threats of violence in them, or that aren't just one big blob of nonsense but this comment was pretty tempting to axe on the second rationale. Still, I think one might agree that the jewish traditions emphasizing the import of professional status, hard work and top-notch education (price no object) might be a stronger contributor to the effect you are seeing than any conspiracy. But then, that would be a boring comment, no? If nothing else, your screed seems to have prompted at least a pair of comments with better signal to noise ratios than your original.

Thu, 12/24/2009 - 04:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 12/22/2009 - 01:59 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/23/2009 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 12/23/2009 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 12/24/2009 - 04:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 12/26/2009 - 07:18 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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