This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Goldman's Big Picture View On FX, Beyond Just The Topical EURUSD

Tyler Durden's picture




 
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 05/15/2010 - 19:07 | 353985 truont
truont's picture

Who cares what Goldman Sucks tells it retail clients ("psst...MBS are a great investment, retail clients!").

We need to find out what Goldman Sucks prop desk is actually doing.  They had a 100% winning-trade Q1.  I'll bet the cheats will have a stunning record in Q2 as well...

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 20:23 | 354061 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

We need to find out what Goldman Sucks prop desk is actually doing

This is a repost:

GS will be either exonorated by the SEC or pay a token fine.

A few days before options expiration they will load up (through proxies off-shore) way out of the money calls.

The next day, SEC drops the news before option expiration that they have nothing on Goldman.

Bingo. 2k will make you 50k  

The other scenario (which was suggested to me by a ZH'r) is that they are pushing their stock lower and they take the company private on the cheap.

 

One more observation 

Grasso hinted that the SEC should consider putting controls so that what happened that Thursday does not happen again.

He said: "Controls either up or down"

What if... 

There is going to be a similar event in the opposite direction? that is Up.

Is it actually possible and can they do it?

Please weigh on this. If that happens, then what?

My gut feeling tells me that BSB will play god and there will be an upward attack early next week to burn the shorts

Just in case I bought a bunch out of the money calls.

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 21:58 | 354177 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Doubt you will find out anything about Goldie.

Here is a list of ties they have to mister nom de plume:

http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/46267

 

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 22:31 | 354216 macfly
macfly's picture

that is chilling, does this corruption know no bounds?

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 00:40 | 354302 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Well,

You may or may not know, cephalopods have 3 hearts.

It looks like we gonna need three large stakes through these hearts to end this tyrrany

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 00:50 | 354303 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Beyond EUR/$ we discuss how to position in FX for continued strong -criminal- activity across the world." Goldman Sachs

 

there. Fixed that for ya....

wonder why ANYONE is playing the market, long or short...

We won't get our chance at a "new jerusalem" until it's just the algobots and crickets....


Sun, 05/16/2010 - 07:32 | 354432 Apostate
Apostate's picture

You guys have to stop seeing the SEC as an organ with any kind of teeth.

It's merely a mechanism to keep corporate leaders from speaking freely.

Think about the Whole Foods CEO - he was hammered for writing about... his passion... on an internet forum. I mean, SEC allows the bailouts to go through, subordinating the entire economy to gross perversion, right?

And they throw Mr. Whole Foods against the wall?

This just exposes that, well, your treasured enforcement mechanisms are primarily there for keeping black people in jail for the hell of it while selling more bonds in an absurd dance of death. 

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 19:10 | 353990 unky
unky's picture

I would be really interested to know to what extend this is true. All other people said the Euro will go to 1.15 or the Euro will go to parity.

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 19:11 | 353993 cbaba
cbaba's picture

They expect Euro is flat 1.35 and Pound is flat 1.61 for the whole year??.

Do just the opposite, you will never see these high number this year.

 

 

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 19:17 | 353998 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

watch as they herd the peasantry on to the titanic and firmly belt them into their seats.......

and empty the wallets that float to the surface as the entire ship goes down.....

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 19:32 | 354008 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

The most informative document to have ever been gleaned by a bank holding company.

Is Goldman ever going to become something other than a taxpayer funded hedgefund?

One bankrupt entity (the U.S) backing an already failed institution (Goldman Sachs)

- No wonder gold is molesting all time highs.

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 19:32 | 354013 Robb
Robb's picture

Good , now that all the euro bears are in the open, its easier to clean house.

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 20:14 | 354055 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

The question is, if the euro has a relief rally, does gold experience downside pressure in sympathy?

That is the question I'm most intrigued by.

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 19:46 | 354023 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Thanks Tyler. Always good to see what The Enemy is saying (though may not be believing). Interestingly, despite their call that Fed policy will still remain accommodative, there were some US equity negative remarks.. perhaps they will have to turn their machines from suck to blow. 'Bout time.. I could use some wind at my back.


- From being net expansionary up until Q3 2010, fiscal policy will likely contribute negatively to growth for the rest of the forecasting horizon, i.e. in 2011.


- At the margin, the risks seem skewed towards more fiscal contraction in the US than in the Euro-zone, mainly because the large Euro-zone countries

(Germany, France and Italy) have run much smaller deficits than the US.


- While the growth boost is already in the process of fading in the US, it seems to be delayed by about two quarters in the Euro-zone, much of this likely to be due to the fact that European industry is more exposed to investment goods, which tend to lag activity in other sectors.

 

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 23:05 | 354230 DisparityFlux
DisparityFlux's picture

Is weakening Euro the opening for China to peg RMB (CNY) to currency basket?

http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=52526

http://cscanada.net/index.php/mse/article/viewFile/1064/1125

Will GS be a facilitator?

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 22:39 | 354220 Flounder
Flounder's picture

Ernie Capadino: [to a (GS) salesman] You know, if I had your job, I'd kill myself! Wait here, I'll see if I can dig up a pistol.

 

Can anyone send me a hard copy of this?  It should fit perfectly in the bottom of the bird cage.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 01:05 | 354310 Verum
Verum's picture

Tyler,

Check out the performance difference between GLD and PHYS over the last last 2 weeks, I understand that it is a short time period and the PHYS acts like a CEF, but something to keep an eye out for. Might be a story there (people finally realizing that GLD has no real claim?)

 

Love how GDX has been decoupling from the S&P lately.  This is another one of my signposts that confirms the tides are turning.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 02:18 | 354333 primefool
primefool's picture

This type of analysis has an analog in the types of forecasts that lead tp SPX 1300 in 6 months( by guess who!!). It has a mindset at the other end of the spectrum from the mindset that wants to buy canned food and move into a cave.

This type of analysis makes several assumptions:

- Nothing is fundamentally broken in the world of finance.

-Things are basically normal and historical relationships/corellations are valid.

-Policymakers are very good and will not let anything bad happen.

And if this type of analysis had led to nothing but losses for investors over the past decade. So what? We insist on repeating it. Your typical pension fund type "investment managers" love this stuff. It reduces their blood pressure and allows them to move at their usual snails pace doing academically sanctioned things. And when they lose(which is most of the time) - they have plent of excuses and rationalizations.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 02:28 | 354336 primefool
primefool's picture

Continuing: Imagine you are a pension fund manager. Uou are not very smart - and kinda know it ( otherwise you would have a hedge fund). Now you take two contrasting philosophies:

1. Taleb: We are all freaking doomed. You could wake up on any given day and find you have lost 30-50% on your investments. Your whole world could be turned upside down in moments - and there is no way for you to predict this - or se it coming.

2. GS: Ignore all these chicken little types. Everything is fine. We can make all kinds of detailed predictions by doing all kinds of correlation analyses. And what we conclude is - everything is fine. Just reeelax.

hey, Mr. pension manager - who makes you fell better? If you lean towards the Taleb view - what exactly are you supposed to do? Do you sit in 3 month T-Bills with 99% of the money and buy way out-of-the money options with the remaining 1%? How will you explain this to the investment commitee ( who are mostly plodding academics who have'nt had an original though in decades)?

No - far safer to take the Road Of The Cephalopod!

Maybe you have a sneaking suspicion you are a patsy and being set up for a good shearing - but thats OK - you are used to it. At least you still have a job.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 07:28 | 354430 Apostate
Apostate's picture

You may perhaps wish to re-evaluate your opinion of hedge fund managers! There's not much separating most of them from the Pension funder.

GS analysts will say whatever their boss wants them to. They're obligated to mouth whatever they need to in order to protect their "friends" and punish their "enemies." It's a bizarre little corrupt system.

It's also easy to make "predictions" when you can easily pump and dump assets at will and collude with governmental organs.

As the Neocons used to say... they "make their own reality." 

The Talebs of this world are roundly disliked by your average greed-head. He's that annoying guy pissing in the punch bowl. No one likes to be wrong... many would prefer to die and still maintain the illusion of being correct than to accept an error and live.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 15:33 | 354939 Devore
Devore's picture

Pension fund managers do no such analysis. As long as they invest with the mainstream herd, their a** is covered because everyone else was doing the same, it was the "prudent" thing to do. If they are contrarian, and severly underperform the market, or god forbid have losses as a result, they will be sued 10 ways to sunday. It's a no win situation for institutional investors, as long as they're in "good" company, they're doing fine.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 06:37 | 354411 LMAO
LMAO's picture

Should we take a contrarian view to this GS doc. ? We know they will take the most profitable side of the deal anyway totally disregarding and maybe even contrary to any info they feed the sheeple.

@ Flounder

I don't have a bird cage.... so what to do?

LMAO

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 07:57 | 354451 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

My bullish USD warnings since 2009 on weekly and monthly charts have not changed and further USD strength and thus EURO weakness is still expected, so USD rally and EURO downtrend will continue.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 09:08 | 354497 Tart
Tart's picture

Greece pays it dues on May 19th.

Goldman sees Euro at 1.35 on 3, 6 and 12 months

Record number of Euro shorts

Options expirations on Friday.

 

----------------

Low volume rally time!

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 14:12 | 354838 poorold
poorold's picture

they are going to do the same in the EU as they did in the US.  you will not make money betting on the downside.

 

you will have no choice but to ignore the reality of the fundamentals and go long and stay long because that's just the way the manipulated markets are going to be manipulated.

 

play along or get crushed.

 

the MSM focuses the mobs on only one thing--the stock market.  and as long as the stock market is okay, the world is okay (move along, nothing to see here mentality.)

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 15:37 | 354945 Orly
Orly's picture

Notice how these numbers are going to keep the DXY (US Dollar Index...) in the 80's for the near future?

 

Yes, I am talking to you, Grand SuperCycle.

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 19:36 | 355344 Matto
Matto's picture

Wait, so gold! man! was long Euro and getting stopped out several times.. and yet didnt make a losing trade last quater? Proof positive they trade agaisnt their retail subscibers?

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 07:58 | 1340841 sun1
sun1's picture

I have to admit that I have never heard about this information I have noticed many new facts for me. Thanks a lot for sharing this useful and attractive information and I will be waiting for other interesting posts from you in the nearest future.keep it up. car insurance

Mon, 06/20/2011 - 14:53 | 1385718 sun
sun's picture

You got a really useful blog I have been here reading for about an hour. I am a newbie and your success is very much an inspiration for me Carrollton Dentist

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!