This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Is Goldman's Flat Curve Indicative Of Aggressive Countperaty Risk Hedging?
Looking at the market one would think that Bernanke just announced an imminent death warrant would be issued to anyone who dares to sell. Yet not all is apparently good underneath the surface. The Goldman CDS curve is as flat as they come - if it was any flatter, it would be inverted. Which of course would mean that Goldman would qualify for IMF assistance. Yet rumors are rampant: some believe that the reason for the underperformance in the short end of CDS over bonds, is a rapid accumulation of short-dated (and thus cheaper) counterparty risk. Is the market once again mimicking the Paulson 2006 financials trade and hedging against a Goldman failure? Possible. We certainly give this rumor more credence than the other one floating out there, that Hank Paulson is coming back as CEO. That would only be possible if John Corzine and Robert Rubin were to all make a repeat appearance at the mothership.
Financial curve chart courtesy of credit trader.
»
- 5243 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
hank paulson
mother ship
anal probe
I haven't seen that many pretty colors since that acid trip on the beach in Miami back in the summer of 68. Cool man, far out. Of course, they had to throw cold water on me when I started humping the dog. But that's a story for another time. :>)
Watch the squid. It's a no-holds-barred survivor and it will eat it's mother and father it that's what is required to continue to spawn baby squids and bonus pool contributions. Remember their motto.
"Be all the squid you can be or get the f**k out."
I was thinking the same thing :)
Looks like the SEC boys have found the box with colour crayons, now they can't watch porn anymore at work :)
Did you guys missed this one ?
U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Expands by Most Since June 2004
Oh yeah. you were to busy switching the web came from island volcano to the oil spill. or something dramatic right ?
Can you guys get back to those times when you were not bearish/bullish biased. and get the facts for us ?
Thank you.
For someone who appears to hate this place as much as you do, you seem to spend an inordinate amount of time here. Are you a soon-to-die moth attracted to the bright light of ZH or a filthy cockroach who simply can't stay away from the ZH feast?
Man, I keep see you. I don't care of your comments. I have my opinions. you have yours.
Do you see me commenting on your stuff. get over it man.
English isn't just a riding style. Embrace the language used on ZH.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_riding
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_language
"Man, I keep see you. I don't care of your comments. I have my opinions. you have yours. "
But CD has his grammar, a rational belief system and logic...and worse for you... CD makes observations based on fact and logic...
You Are Out Manned Sonny Boy.
"Let's give'em the gunsel..."
Derek, is that you?
"Do you understand that the world does not revolve around you and your do whatever it takes, ruin as many people's lives, so long as you can make a name for yourself as an investigatory journalist, no matter how many friends you lose or people you leave dead and bloodied along the way, just so long so you can make a name for yourself as an investigatory journalist, no matter how many friends you lose or people you leave dead and bloodied and dying along the way? "
Was there really a time when ZH was not bearish biased? That was a solid report no matter how you slice it. Auto sales are much stronger today than anyone thought as well. Do we get that here? No, but there may have been a tremor by a big volcano in Iceland.
There are definitely times to be bearish as there are bullish. But to be bearish in the face of strong economic indicators is foolish. Couple that with GS and EU effectively out of the news and what's the driver to take the market lower? Nothing right now. That's why we're seeing a strong rally today.
Man. you said it better than me.
I came here frustrated. because it's a really nice place. with smart people.
Boy I hate to see them all short.
I really hate it. You know why ?
Because it gets to you how people on CNBC that I don't like. are better than this here.
Really hate it. I know another bunch of people are going to jump on me now. But I don't care.
I hate that ZH is becoming a joke now in front of a sort of V shape recovery.
Feel sorry for your English teacher. They just hung themself.
Smart ss ? how many language can you write ?
I'm not a native english speaker.
Why are you assuming everyone here is short? From what I've read in the comments over the past few months, many are either out of the market or long. Some dabble with shorts but not for long. I don't get the impression they are all short at all.
Explain why you think having a long term negative (short) attitude has anything to do with trading in the near term by being long? And why you would assume "Boy I hate to see them all short." This sounds disingenuous.
you are right.
Well CD, right from his/her/its own fingers. Another pair for you, but I expect these will go directly to Howard for auction to folks like Fab, Lloyd, and Barney.
And just above DMA is giving Harry a lap dance. Hi folks, all the ZHers are saying is that printing to infinity is a really really serious matter. It is so serious that folks who haven't studied monetary history might just want to re-think their position. Now, fer sure, if you can come with the refutation of ((fiat >> infinity >> society in deep shit)), then by all means. That would be the start of a kewl conversation. But for you to come here and prate and dance nonsense, well these folks have been mighty polite.
And as akak said, No Response is a Best Policy, but I'm just checking the water.
Maybe this ^
Don't we know that markets anticipate ?
You tell me that this market doesn't anticipate economic rebound on main street ?
I doubt that.
It's just like 2002/3 --- 2007
What economic rebound? If you have some insight as to where the jobs will be coming from I am all ears. The manufacturing jobs have left. The high tech jobs are doing their best to leave. Unemployed is the new normal.
haha....love that!
Another "trader" who has no idea wtf is happening. Markets are going up because markets are up. Technical trading with no fundamental understanding of VALUATIONS, earnings, or anything remotely tangible.
The power of infinite liquidity. You're willing to bet on a clearly corrupt, ponzi government that flings money at any problem.
I guarantee this will end in tears, the only question is timing. Yet, you suggest we climb aboard the crazy train. I hope you lose your wallet, because all you're doing is gambling.
Leech.
DMA-
I don't think many people here are shorting due to the complete disassociation with fundamentals and common sense that this market has....bearish views are one thing but aside from PM's, I don't believe many people are stupid enough to bet against that which defies all laws of physics/normalcy.
Just my .02
+10 man.
Exactly my point.
Yes they were bearish and they were right. I was bearish and I was right.
Why the heck do we look for price action if we don't care.
I mean sure you can find 100k bad news. but man cmon.
+10
The market functions on opinion informed or otherwise. I am a bear who is long because it works, and yes it works for now, and yes I know, I know the shit will hit the fan in due time. It always does.
I have failed so many fucking times "at being right" I have given up. The truth is not the same as a capital gain. We should rail against lies and fraud in conjuntion with the market action and that we do well. Separate that from the stupid and childish requirement of making money.
When was that ever easy to make money? Hey, for all you who went long this market, good for you and well played! You are either very smart, very dumb or very lucky, but good for you anyway and I hope you can repeat it.
ZH, we can giggle at the data, ridicule its foundations, and illustrate the lies embedded in these reports. But too many of us are taking this market run way too fucking personal and I know why, I feel it too. However, I will not commit financial suicide based on the naive principle the market should agree with me! The market or whatever it is does not care for and never ever cared for the truth. We all know this.
They will be right one day and for the reasons chronicled here, but until then do not make the ticks personal.
If you get a few million more people willing to pile in to... you might break even.
-----------------------------------------------------
"True. But you can make them lay down a higher bottom, which is what we've seen. DOW will not go below 9000 again in our lifetimes" Oct 2008
Nice call. Reminds me of in Titanic, "God himself couldn't sink this ship".
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/ETFs_%28A_to_Z%29/ETFs_S/threadview?m=...
This one was the best
"As I said earlier based upon the facts and the impressive response by governments worldwide, the S&P will hit 1200 by year end. Easily. Just look at all the good news out there concerning credit and liquidity. This is a no brainer." 2008
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/ETFs_...
Harry & DMA, again this is not a trading forum. Therefore, you are clearly misinterpreting the fact that the majority of people here are not "all short." That is a convenient figment of your imagination.
How is the EU out of the news? Assuming Greece does get its bailout (it has not even been voted on yet), it sends an ominous sign. The EU has had to rely on the IMF (the American savior of 3rd world nations) to help it pull a EMU member totally out of the markets in order to secure financing! In addition, they have suspended the use of 3rd party credit ratings in order to (literally) accept government junk bonds as collateral.
The only thing that can help Greece is equity of some form or fashion. This form will likely take the shape of default or restructuring. To make matters worse is that Spain, Ireland, and Italy are up next and they have BIG issues. Can the EU afford another $200 billion euros each to pull those companies out of the market as well.
I strong suggest you read "Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe", Prodi Says - I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire! and Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!.
You really shouldn't beleive everything you hear in the media.
Despite all ofthis, you still take newsbytes from the pop media and sovereign leaders as gospel?
Production of oil cleaning products is hitting a peak for no reason at all :)
I have taken the time to re-edit this post for the benefit of all concerned...
Distinguished colleagues, it appears that while reviewing web video capture of the Volcano cloud and the BP oil spill, you have inadvertently overlooked the following important data byte:
Mad Magazine Reports: U.S. Manufacturing Expanded by the Most Since June 2004
Can you please revert to being a fulltime CNBC data feed?
Kind regards,
DMA
LOL
Mad Magazine has this to say to all you ZH perma bears. US Manufacturing Expanded by the Most Since June 2004. (Of course, let's not compare actual numbers, just the 10th derivative.)
So there! Take that you ZH perma bears. :>)
BTW if you look closely at the hand, it appears there just might be 6 fingers, with another finger bump on one side. Must be a GS hand especially grown for double dealing.
A great book on mad magazine and William gaines is:
http://www.amazon.com/World-William-Gaines-Bantam-Y7841/dp/B0007AG3EA/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1272929576&sr=1-1
Its been about 30 years since I read it (when I was 5 years old!) but Gaines was quite a character.Great read...
Bail them all out. Who gives a fuck. Just don't raise my taxes until my car is paid off and I purchase my Macbook pro 17". Maybe by the time the shit hits the fan I'll be fucking 6 feet under. Until then, Rally on.
Aren't you going to buy the Ipad to?
Is that the one with wings or without?
This is sarcasm. I am a taxpayer who is ready to throw in the towel.
Throwing a towel is ok. At least it's not a pound of flesh into an IRS building...lol
The market no longer considers Goldman as backed by the full faith and credit of the United States. Flattening CDS is in store for all of them if sovereign backing withdraws.
I'm not going to be sarcastic from now on.
It's not fair. I value the work of ZH.
But I would like to see a more balanced view.
Sure get the bearish news. talk also about good news.
You will end up just like MISH.
you can't even comment know there.
He is still with california going bankrupt.
C'MON GUYS. Is Cramer better than you ?
Hate it. this is very bullish market. look at earnings man.
How does a rotten market that's manipulated to **** and pumped up with hot air and gubbermint stimulus equal good fundamentals? Please elucidate.
The only way to trade would be (IMHO) to realise what's actually happening, take advantage and get out - hoping that you're smarter than the robots and that you can forsee when they pull the plug before they do. Too risky IMO.
DMA ~ Direct market Access Trader ,sounds like a robot to me.. :-)
Mate, I fundamentally HATE this market, I really HATE it...but I'm not paid to love it..., not paid to be right or righteous, not paid to follow fundamentals. I am paid to make money!Been long again since June/July 09, done 15% in 09 and am at 3.42% YTD just holding 4 indexes. I am not a stock picker, dun believe in that, and I have done the most money (58%....yes u right, 58) in 2008. I know for sure all this madness will end up in blood and tears...but so far DMA is right.
You stay long....until the moment comes to short it again...
Moaning and bitching because the "market" don't want to be right or righteous or doesn't follow our private criteria of fundamentalism...is a waste of time...and life is too short.
Dude,
California IS going bankrupt.
Mish's observations ARE correct and they do not matter. The man is not lying
The bearish news ARE the truth, and they do not matter. Spin is the only thing that seems matter. This market behaves like a drunk. It all too conveniently ignores enormous heart stopping problems in order to climb the wall of worry. It seems to lack any intelligence, foresight or survival instinct. That is what gets me.
Something here IS really wrong!
For this reason there IS no balanced view, such a position would be dishonest.
This guy obviously doesn't look at how overpriced PE ratios are.
Did you not question the dot com bubble DMA? I can clearly remember folks spouting off about the new dot com business model, which as far as I could tell, meant positive cash flow was no longer a requirement
Ca and many other states are bankrupt and the piper will be paid....
excuse me, but you are allowed, in fact you are ENCOURAGED< STRONGLY ENCOURAGED to sell any gold or silver stock.
and hey, anyone else hear the rumor that the Justice Dept is looking at JPM for silver manipulation on the Comex?
has the sun exploded? did I miss it? who woke up the justice department?
I suggest making a fake funeral procession to the GS headquarters this friday. They flowers could be placed and poems - good buy GS could be read. The dress code all black of cause.
The day this crowd turns into Bernanke Bulls would surely be the day to pull up your socks and run for the hills...
THE ANGRY MOB:
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/05/mob.html
DOW/SP500 intra day chart gives bullish signal.
Interesting ...
MARKET UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
What happens to global flow when the biggest prime broker takes a face plant?
Here's a piece from Felix Salmon in Reuters on that slimeball Bob Rubin:
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/05/01/blaming-rubin/
And for something spicier, check out Matt Taibbi's blog.
Seriously? Paulson?
If he goes back to Goldman Sachs, I figure somebody will probably burn the place down. That'd just be too cute by half.
Currently, SP500 futures indicate the March 2009 bear market rally may be ending.
We should get confirmation this week.
MARKET UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0