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Goldman's FX Team Validates Cynical Critics, Capitulates On EURUSD Recommendation ONCE AGAIN
A month ago, Goldman threw in the towel, revising its prior 1.35 estimate for the EURUSD down to 1.15, which prompted us to conclude that it is "Time To Go Long." A month later, following yet another massive P&L loss for all those who are still naive enough to listen to the Thomas Stolper led team, and Goldman has officially flip flopped yet again: "Weaker US growth, reasonably solid Euro-zone macro data and less political/fiscal disruptions than feared have been a feature of the past few weeks, and have motivated another forecast change to reflect more broad USD weakness than before. We now project EUR/$ at 1.35 and 1.38 in 6 and 12 months to reflect the fundamental outlook." And one wonders why GS' treatment of its clients is the butt of all jokes. In fact, Goldman has been kind enough to provide the performance of its 2010 Tactical FX performance, and at -5.3%, it is nothing for clients to write their LPs about.
For anyone wishing to find out why the EUR rally is now over, here are 87 pages worth of reverse psychology why Goldman is now selling euros.
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Goldman Sucks -- Open an account if you need a tax writeoff.....
and now, it is time to short the euro.
and now, it is time to short the euro.
I think I heard Lloyd Blankfein once say: "If God did not want them to be sheared, he would not have made them sheep."
Ha - go fucking figure.
1.2876 currently so since they want us to go long we should expect it around 1.21 again. What a joke GS is.
And in other "bad call" news, ZH has been calling for SPX 350, since the SPX was at 666, and is now at 1095
Now, does this make ZH evil? No. Just wrong on this particular call. So what.
ZH is not an I-bank
so what. Tom Stolper is an F/X analyst that has made a bad call. If he makes too many, and his clients don't find him useful, he'll be out on the Street. In fact, it is even possible that his clients don't care one iota about his specific F/X calls; rather, they may only care about the rationale he uses in making his calls, i.e. his underlying analysis. This is quite common on the Street; sell-side analysts that are valued for their analysis and rationale's but are perceived as not good "stock pickers"
You may be confusing Nic Lenoir (an investment advisor) with Zero Hedge (a conscientious objector to idiocy). In our opinion, Nic will be proven to have been optimistic (read the subheader).
Nic Lenior will get some calls right and some calls wrong, just like everyone else, including TD at ZH, me, and "insert analyst's name" at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., or anywhere else.
it is idiocy, in my opinion, is to ascribe some type of conspiracy theory to every call made by every analyst at GS. It may get ZH ratings, but it is misinforming your readers, not all of whom are as sophisticated and informed as you.
Paradigm of the USEFUL IDIOT...and we all wonder how the crooks continue to transact business with no prosecutions.
Q.E.D.
It was very confusing as to the owner of the SP 350 call, what with the tag lines of "Guest Post" and "by Nic Lenior".
No one is stopping you from perusing this site and creating your own ZH-like page in order to have your opinion of ZH validated by all of 3 users, in which 2 of them are in China trying to click on your ads so they can gain a penny.
What is going on lately? We have more and more clowns on this site saying "we're missing the parade," "get in or get out," and ZH is "misinforming your readers".. blah blah..
If you don't like what this site says, fine. JUST STOP PREACHING TO US ABOUT HOW MISINFORMED WE ARE BY READING THIS SITE DAILY. We didn't come to you - you came to ZH. We've had enough people tell us what we should hear and we're smart enough to decipher what is going on, with or without your uninformed opinion.
Last but not last, to defend GS on how they're not perfect on their analyst ratings is like defending Obama on how much budget restraint he's shown.
Q.E.D.
I am not defending GS' analysts bad calls, I am merely pointing out the obvious which is that every analyst and investor makes bad calls; what one hopes is that one's bad calls occurr with frequency < 0.5
What's more, I am simply pointing out the truth that there are sell side analysts that can not get a stock call (F/X call) right to save their life, and yet they are still valued by clients because of the insights they bring to the table.
It is just my opinion, but I think those that are informed and sophisticated, e.g. ZH, have a responsibility to truth; the people have been fed enough BS and we don't benefit from opposite-view BS here.
Chemba
I think you'll find that many readers of ZeroHedge don't like to be confronted with an opinion that runs counter to their own, especially if it pertains to gold, the upcoming apocalypse, or their indoctrinated and archaic views of right-wing politics.
From a psychological perspective, it's really quite fascinating. As someone very astutely pointed out yesterday, the truth does not unite; rather, it divides.
To be honest, that dichotomy provides wonderful entertainment.
One larger degree intent of my comment is the astute observation someone (I don't know who) made that; people are entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts
ZH delivers a lot of incredibly interesting and insightful facts and analysis, with some attached investment hypotheses and opinions. That's great. But then it often wanders off into conspiratorial opinions -- presented as, and received by those less informed, as facts -- which, in my view, debase the value of the otherwise exceptional content.
Thing is Chemba, GS doesnt make bad calls. They just recommend them.
I'm a new reader of ZH and may be missing the boat here. But I don't see the site as having a single opinion on anything. There's a general trend toward cynical libertarianism, but I've seen posts lean left and right within the same day.
I don't hear any single voice of authority here, just a lot of smart people grinding axes and making guesses based on their personal theories.
To ascribe any particular opinion "to ZH" seems ridiculous to me, like ascribing a position to Pajamas Media or the Huffington Post.
The best stuff comes from commenters anyway. I think the best info on the site comes commenter dissections of sloppy posts.
"Conscientious Objector to Idiocy" ~ Amen Brother Durden, count me in
Yehaw! Time to short the market and the euro.
i m a newbee...in markets.....but according to this new GS message.....we should be shortin the EURO ...am i correct??
No, they advise to be long the EUR, the thing is that everyone is sceptic about Goldman predictions because the last couple of month their FX advise has been wrong... so they are being sarcastic.
GS appears to be one of the dumbest banks around by their calls. Does anyone really believe this mega bank is really as stupid as they appear with their counter calls? There's method to their madness, you can bet your wad on it. I'm not exactly sure what it is or why they want to appear so stupid, but you don't get to be GS by being as clueless as they have appeared lately.
Like any good bowler GS likes to line up the pins before knocking them down.
gs can't manipulate foreign exchange so they are wrong more often there.
the strange thing is that if they look at the charts the euro positions haven't been so hard to spot. there is much less silliness trading in FX than on the NYSE where two or three firms can control the whole market if they want.
...and one wonders how they make profitable trades for 63 straight days for the quarter ending March 31st.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/unfuckingbelievable-goldman-has-zero-tr...
Does the word "cheating" ring a bell?
How long will this 'talk your book and then do the opposite' shtick fly until it gets fuckin obvious to everyone?
GS tells people to do this, do that - and then post zero-loss trading days while most of the punters are either out or hoping & praying not to lose money.
Bill Gross tells people he is buying Gilts - just before the UK reveals that its public debt is 4T pounds sterling, more than twice what was thought.
Even the damn government tells people to buy houses through their tax credits - the first sign of a serious housing price correction. (Altho I guess the government always does lose money so they aren't necessarily doing the opposite.)
Is this like a lesson from hades almighty to get people to quit taking advice and just start doing for themselves, and/or pull all funds out of everything until the world starts making some damn sense again?
EUR technicals are, I think, about $1.32 and then next would be $1.37 (IIRC). At some point it's supposed to fall to $1.165 and then something like $1.12. More technical levels.
And so bloody what. If the Boyz really want to do some fleecing they'll get everyone focused on the technicals and trading that way, and then move the market to some other level, with huge swings all along the way to take out stops both ways. Why not? Why confine your robots to technical levels if all the punters are heading for those, and all the advice out there is set to those too? And if you can move the markets to wherever you want due to unlimited government backstop, no risk, and 'co-ordinated ramping' among the central banks?
If the markets aren't really free, then there's not a lot of point participating as a punter, I think, until they are, except maybe as a fun sort of gamble. No matter what advice the Big Boys publish at large.
The latest ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary projected that the 2010 general government balance will be a deficit of 19.75 percent of GDP, which is the sum of the ‘underlying’ deficit of 11.5 percent of GDP and the capital transfer into Anglo/INBS of 8.25 percent of GDP. In short, the government will need to raise more taxes and/or cut spending.
The Irish Budget Deficit is Projected to be 19.75% of GDP!
GS does not have clients, only counterparties.
Partially correct. In Equities and FICC the majority of their clients are in a "counter-party", non advisory, non-fiduciary relationship. In those cases, GS' obligation is to bid or offer clients "best price", e.g. NBP
In IBD, GS is an advisor role, e.g. Ford doing a debt deal, and so GS would be obligated to work in client's "Best interests"
In GSAM, GS could be acting as an advisor or even as a fiduciary, i.e. managing O.P.M.
How to win in today's markets:
You max out the cash you can take from your TBTF credit cards. Put ALL that money opposite of GS's calls. There's an 80% chance you make huge money. However, if GS was actually right and you lose, you don't pay back your CC. Now that I think of it, even if you make big money, why bother paying back the credit card at all? Now, that's CHANGE I CAN BELIEVE IN!
Disclosure: I am not a PhD from a respected institution, so proceed with caution.
The best approach to take re: GS prognostications is to ignore them completely.
Otherwise you risk something akin to the scene in the Princess Bride where Vizzini justifies, re-justifies, etc. ad nauseum why he should choose one wine glass over the other.
Does any one truly read through these GS ANAL-LYST monthly reports?
Tyler,get this GARBAGE outta'a here bro.
I'm still reading the full GS report but after the first 10 pages, it seems that Goldman is just telling its clients to momentum trade the EUR/USD. Only problem is it is advising its clients to follow the momentum a full week and a half to 2 weeks after the run has started. Its time frame is also highly suspect. It believes there could be macro and political risk in the 3 month window, causing EUR/USD to dip to 1.22, but somehow, this risk is completely removed in the 6-12month window, leading to a 1.3+ target...
not as yet ...you have missed out their 3 month forecast which stands at 1.22. So a few more points on the upside is still warranted in the Euro trade
ES tanking, EUR and GBP rising --> new paradigm? Or is this the standard 3-day Goldman "guarantee" period to their "cunter-parties" of their latest "Buy Eur" call?
As warned about for some time... EURUSD daily chart is bullish.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/about
No, the EUR/USD is bullsheet.... the EUR is getting propped up by the PPT big time (its their Yang moment of their Yin and Yang shell game). While every other Yen cross-pair took a nose dive this morning, the EUR/JPY meets obigatory resistance and reverses at 112.50. The propping up of the EUR is utter BS in relation to any "flight to safety" as opposed to whatever else. The FX manipulation is the last big charade in the Grand Deception - it could actually play out for a long time. Where else are the diabolical world bankers going to make their trillions during the greatest deflationary period mankind will have ever seen?
At some point in time Uncle Screwtape will instruct his minions to "flush" and the EUR will follow, but only when Uncle Screwtape gives the go ahead.
The charts show that, for now...the way this market is, we could turn on the dime.
Is there a Mendoza line for stock/fx forecasting? Of course, this particular Goldman 'forecast' unit would be looking up at the pitcher's batting averages, so what's it matter?
Tyler, important one.
GS is still recommending short EURUSD. Check page 2 of the report yourself, their short term target is still 1.22.
I just dont want anyone to try selling it thinking GS said buy, they didn't.
All they did was make the most fucked up FX prediction I have ever seen. 1.22 to 1.35? As we go into a slowdown? Fucking lunacy.
Stay long to 1.33, stay short DXY to the equivalent.
I agree Mephisto, about 81.50, nice Fib level, then strength again, probably coinciding with the Euro Stress test info
The DXY is running down to 81 maybe, bounce and then the market crash will resume
I paid a lot of attention to uup and UDN. udn hit a really nice double bottom from last march. so in my view had the markets been allwed to do what they should we would had close to a bottom in stocks as well. so I eally don't know what to say.
I think they might be right this time, with one exception: instead of 6-12 "months" it might be more like 6-12 DAYS.
-5%? lmao
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