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Goldman's Hatzius Issues Another Preemptive Economy Downgrade Warning

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Very much in sync with our long-running projected timeline that Goldman will downgrade the economy within a month, to be followed by some more Hatzius-Dudley tete-a-tetes in which the current head of Goldman's economic team will make it all too clear that the Great Re-Redepression is inevitable unless the former head of Goldman's economic team sacrifices another 1-2 trillion in 25% linen/75% cotton fiatscoes at the altar of the supreme bankster, Hatzius just issued his second preliminary downgrade warning for US GDP.

To wit:

1. Durable goods orders disappointed expcectations with a 0.9% drop. It's a "what you see is what you get" report, as durables ex transporation and nondefense capital goods order ex aircraft likewise disappointed by a sizable margin. Indeed, the latter measure of core capital goods orders is now tracking at double-digit negative rates in the first quarter so far, although core capital goods shipments (which enter the GDP numbers) are still tracking +1% in nominal terms -- not great but not nearly as bad.

2. The data increase the sense of downside risk to our Q1 GDP estimate of 3.5%. However, it is harder to say how much they matter beyond this, as durable goods orders are notoriously noisy. Industrial production of business equipment continues to rise and the industrial surveys continue to look great, including for surveys of capex spending plans (the Philly Fed measure of this just hit an 11-year high in March). We would therefore downplay the broader message from the durable goods report.

 

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Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:35 | 1095046 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

US Federal Prosecutor tells Federal Judge that GoldmanSachs Board of Directors member said "I Plead The Fifth".

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-23/ex-goldman-board-member-invoked...

 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:59 | 1095195 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Execute him, next.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:35 | 1095050 bluehorsesandal
bluehorsesandal's picture

Hatzius is happy in his new function as "HFT" professional 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:37 | 1095059 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

They know that massive money printing covert and overt will continue.  I say this is BS on their part.  Rally will continue till all humans are dead.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:40 | 1095070 Thomas
Thomas's picture

But it is molesting Blythe.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:42 | 1095082 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

He's just buckin' for QE3. Keep the money coming!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:42 | 1095090 dbTX
dbTX's picture

always on the sunny side

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:45 | 1095094 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

yawn.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:45 | 1095103 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

another large quake in burma - 7

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:46 | 1095104 Bleeping Fed
Bleeping Fed's picture

Buy the GDP Fail!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:47 | 1095105 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Hatzius know's he an outlier so he's

hedging. JPM is already at 2.5% GDP

which basically sucks.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:46 | 1095113 thepigman
thepigman's picture

At 2.5% GDP, no net new jobs will be created

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:50 | 1095126 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Nor will there be any income growth.

They're just kiting stocks now on

POMO fumes.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 11:07 | 1095252 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

2.5%? Absent 11% deficit spending, what is the real GDP "growth" number?

Together we thrive.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:47 | 1095111 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Economy. Stock symbol aapl

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:47 | 1095120 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Hurry, the guy who lost his job, the house, the wife and his dog, also lost his cable and needs to hear this warning.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:52 | 1095145 Racer
Racer's picture

Great news for the market..... QE$$$$$$

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:55 | 1095166 g3h
g3h's picture

That sounds indeed like cover his ass.  But it is not that bleak.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 11:04 | 1095230 Alea Iacta Est
Alea Iacta Est's picture

Market is so screwy today.....

- Toyota announces all US plants may have to shut down due to supply chain disruption.

- Goldman warns on the economy

- Durable goods drop precipitously

- Consumer confidence tanks

MARKET SOARS!!

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 11:03 | 1095242 Racer
Racer's picture

Only POMO matters

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:20 | 1095580 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

yep, it is dry here. Hit 88 degrees in Austin a few days ago.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 11:05 | 1095238 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

GDP report tomorrow.

I really can't see earnings holding up going into April. Too much shit went down with wars, nukes, gas, earthquakes to keep the priced to perfection marker going.

And how many stopgap will they pass before taking on the debt celiing debates?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 11:07 | 1095243 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I'm leaning towards NO QE3. How will they shove that down with oil surging?

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:15 | 1095561 chairsatan
chairsatan's picture

Oil doesn't count... only iPads.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 11:05 | 1095251 cheesewizz
cheesewizz's picture

 So does that mean the rally keeps going, I got an eye on a few pigs that could fly on QE2.5

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 11:29 | 1095362 buzzsaw99
Thu, 03/24/2011 - 11:35 | 1095389 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Au and Ag at new highs of 1447 and 38.13 continue their inverse responce to warnings and declining economic numbers elsewhere, but these parabolic PM price increases, to me, are the warnings to watch - of upcoming disruptions in currency, trade, profit, GDP and consumer sectors, so well obfuscated and otherwise disguised as they are.

It's been said that short-term, gold is an inflation hedge, and long-term, a deflation hedge, but apparently the two have merged and the future is now.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:06 | 1095529 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

deflation/inflation is irrelevant.  Buying power is ALL that will soon matter.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 11:34 | 1095392 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Fuck Timmy Giethner up the A$$ with Blythes Silver Dildo.......

 

Take it dry TimmahY

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:17 | 1095848 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

I just realized... "25% linen/75% cotton"

This is why cotton is up...LOL

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 13:41 | 1095984 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

definitely using this rally in the market as a shorting oppty!: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/recent-march-rally-a-shorting-opportunity

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 14:58 | 1096287 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Hatzius and some other Wall Streeter shocked me a few weeks ago when they admitted,"housing will not recover for 8-10 years." They said recovery is linked to employment and they do NOT see that improving for years.

One of the few times I heard some truth from these Wall Street economists who usually game their book...

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 19:05 | 1097330 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Whatever GS says expect the opposite. Its all false flagging now as its rock n roll time.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 19:06 | 1114867 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

test..

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