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Goldman's Jim "BRIC" O'Neill Now Openly Taunting Market Skeptics
Jim O'Neill "Anyhow, dear grizzlies....bet your [sic] worried about today’s rally? See u later." Not sure this type of smugness by god's firm should be surprising, or even deserve to be pointed out, but we just wanted to store this for posterity, as we are confident we will return to this quote on many occasions in the future.
Full comment from the Joseph Cohen's transatlatnic twin.
Anyhow, I am off to sunny northern ( well at least, light) Sweden this pm for a client offsite, and back early next week. Some other thoughts;
1. China-US meetings. It certainly seems a much better tone exists between senior US policymakers and their counterparts in Beijing than earlier in the year. It is especially pleasing to see US policymakers stating that they recognize the signs of a rise in the contribution of Chinese consumption, and that global imbalances are easing. About time it was acknowledged.
2. The world 2010-19. As I mentioned last weekend, and in the piece I wrote in the Global Economics Weekly of 19th May, the China/US economic outlook is simply way more important than all this European stuff. So long as there is no major tightening of US financial conditions as a result of the European turmoil, from a global perspective, if Europe wallows in its own mess, then ……..I took another look at the chart Swarnali Ahmed created for me. We expect China to increase by $ 7 trillion this decade, nearly 2 x its current size, 2 times the change in the US, and equivalent to the change in the US and the other 3 BRICS put together. Not a single Euro area country will be in the top ten contributors.
3. The Euro area mess. It still seems to me there is so much emotional, subjective nonsense flying around. Irrelevant of the considerable challenges within many individual countries, in aggregate, the Euro Area is in modest, current account surplus, and its Broad Basic balance is in surplus too. And, even before the fiscal tightening announced in various Club Med countries in the past couple of weeks, the aggregate fiscal position appears better than the US.
4. Euro area issues. Despite the above, there is clearly a number of major challenges. And now the centre of attention is, now, rightly, Spain. Stopping Greek style financial market turmoil through Spain, and Spain dealing with its Cajas challenge is absolutely key. While calls for a US style stress test applied collectively across the Euro Area strikes me as a bit naïve, one for Spain seems a good idea. And if what our analysts think is true, the Spanish should be quite chilled about this. Javier PerezDeAzpillaga wrote a highly relevant piece on Tuesday on this topic.
5. UK issues. I had a dinner with a number of UK company CEO’s and Chairman last night, primarily retailers. I had dined with a number of them some months ago, and they acknowledged things had turned out better than they had expected back then. Despite that, virtually all of them were pretty negative about the future, worrying about VAT hikes, unemployment, how they might get home, global warming, Manchester City, you name it……….my answer was, we will stick to following the lead and coincident indicators. Couple of other issues. The UK PSBR- fiscal deficit in normal language- was revised down again in latest numbers. It is now £156bn, down from 167, which was down from 178 last December, i.e. 15pct lower than what was forecast just six months ago………amazing what a bit of growth can do for you…( no surprise there, UK –and other –deficits probably not as big as everyone worries about). UK GDP was revised up in latest quarter, continuing a pattern we have bored you about……..
6. Stop press on UK. Just as was about to move on to another topic, the latest CBI Distributive Trades survey shows a less healthy path. Guys from last night’s dinner will love that… See what Ben, Kevin and co have to say about it.
7. OECD forecasts for the world increased this week. Now they do have a tendency to move slowly, but it is quite interesting that a/they still went ahead with these upgrades, and b/ I noticed their China forecast for this year is 11.3pct now…………hurrah someone finally got to our vicinity.
8. SDR, constituents, usage and the Dollar. Mike Buchanan and I have just published a Global Paper on this important topic, exploring what currencies might be in it, as we go through the next decade ( definitely CNY, maybe RUR), and whether the case for suggesting it could and should replace the US$ is half decent or not- answer is, not really.
Anyhow, dear grizzlies…….bet your worried about today’s rally? See u later.
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Could Goldman be right this time?
Just like Obama is "right"..
If anyone read "Margin of Safety" by Klarman, Zero Hedge had it up over the weekend, then you know how all of this will end. You know this because it has happened again and again and again over time. 20 years ago it was the junk bonds that blew up, now it is all those CDOs. All that toxic paper created by bankers just to earn commissions.
No, loudmouth Goldman is playing the old volatility dispersion game. If you have enough alumni friends around you sitting in at least 20 befriended hedge funds you can allow to do so, isn't Jim ? So why did you take tax payers money you carnival barker ?
He might want to stop in with those UK retailers again after they actually looked at their sales numbers
He'd need to brush up on the Heimlich maneuver if they reviewed those figures during dinner.
Wonder what they ate? Fresh human baby?
They should both STFUP!
Dear Mr Oneil,
I disagree with you.
Love,
The Euro
Where would it be without the SNB ?
Actually, BP could dictate today's final move. Any official announcement that there has been great success will give the market one more thing to be happy about and send it flying.
On the other hand, a grim prognosis and look out below.
I'm sure sooner or later he's going to parlay his attempts to throw darts blindfolded into a Tom Vu type-ad for financial advice..
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_KNJyR_TT3zo/RqKAWEao3_I/AAAAAAAAAFY/f1PGKSBtXs...
@HW
If you think BP has anything to do with this market move, it is another sign of your trollishness. This move is predicated by the strengthening of the Euro, which was itself predicated by the ChiComms saying that they weren't selling. Question is, do you believe the ChiComms? Since you seem to buy the CNBS/Liesman reporting, you probably do.
We will be told either nothing or that all is well until the markets close for the weekend tomorrow afternoon. Then the truth, if it is negative, will come out.
We must remember that as they plug this gusher, the pressure will build within, acting naturally to defeat any resistance they have managed to apply with the weight of the mud. They are trying to fill the entire pipe below the sea surface with mud in order to "plug" this gusher. It may or may not work and it may not last.
I know there's an analogy somewhere here to the oil spill, hiding the details, trying to plug it, etc, and the economy, and the morons who run it-- but I can't find it right now.
The pressure of the truth of reality, that the various governments efforts to deny the deflationary collapse by endless money printing along with public assumption of private debt to prevent that from crashing, is a natural pressure.
This pressure is so similar to BP trying desperately to stop the natural pressure of an uncapped well from destroying their own credibility, along with a sizeable portion of the economies of a few states.
They could care less about the environment. They are concerned about their short term viability as a company that is increasingly being discussed next to the words "nationalization".
I understand the next move is to plug the well by stuffing it full of overfed BP executives.
It's there, just keep looking!
Hint: 0bama at todays press conference...pathetic oil-soaked sea mammal.
Jim, than man in the bubble.
Jim only says that because he knows the US, EU, UK and now the stimulus addled Chinese refuse to let the crap hit the fan. He knows they wont allow the collapse which should have occured a long time ago. He knows they cannot stop releasing ballast as the sub sinks to the bottom of the sea.
he is right, but for all the wrong reasons. Jim represents the epitome of all thats wrong with the system.
Coldcall
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
President Kucinich also announced a new “Marshall Plan” for war-ravaged Europe, which has descended into near anarchy since the EU collapsed in late 2010. He called on the Italian Red Brigade army to end its siege of Berlin. He promised to begin an airlift of food for Europe’s starving millions, to be followed by industrial products to help European nations to begin to produce for domestic consumption. He called for an end to fiscal austerity and argued that since each nation had adopted its own currency with the collapse of the euro, each now had the ability to “spend by crediting bank accounts.” Hence, “whatever is technologically feasible is financially feasible.”
Wall Street rallied on the news, with Nasdaq reaching a new high of nearly 250 and the Dow hitting 1150—the highest levels seen since the Great Crash of October 2011. The dollar also rose on the news, to $52 per Chinese RMB. Optimism spread to Japanese markets, with the yen remaining close to 132 per dollar.
In his statement, President Kucinich said that the long “nightmare” was coming to an end. He struck a conciliatory tone when he responded to a question about the actions of the administration of President Obama in the early years of the Great Depression, which many believe to have set the stage for the Great Crash. “Look, President Obama as well as his successors followed the advice of economists—who continually called for more fiscal austerity, much like the misguided physicians used to bleed patients to death. They were, and still are, clueless. I promise you that I will ban all economists from my administration. I will not seek, nor will I follow, advice from economists.” After a decade of suffering over the course of the second Great Depression, the nation breathed a collective sigh of relief.
The President pointed to the experiences of China, India and Botswana, the only nations to escape the Great Depression. He recalled that just a decade ago, US GDP and the standard of living of the average American were many times higher than those in any of these nations. Indeed, Botswana was widely derided for its policies, which had generated hyperinflation. Yet, each of these countries had adopted a job guarantee and had developed programs that achieved full employment with wage and price stability. And while unemployment rose dramatically all around the globe, these three nations enjoyed full employment and rising living standards—indeed, all three have surpassed the US median real household income level. President Kucinich said that Botswana has offered to send advisors to help get America’s fiscal and monetary policy back on track. He proclaimed that the days of misguided fiscal austerity are over, and promised to “spend whatever it takes to get our nation’s workers and factories operating at full capacity.”
In related news, a handful of economists have declared their support for President Kucinich’s policies. Among them is former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who had recanted his belief in free market economics early in the depression. Over the years he has moved ever further to the left as he embraced reforms ranging from socialized medicine to abolition of private ownership of the means of production. While some economists have dismissed Greenspan’s public statements as the rants of “a senile old man” others have noted that the statements have become remarkably cogent in contrast to the testimonies he used to provide as Chairman. An early disciple of Ayn Rand, Greenspan’s recent testimonies now include obscure quotes from Marx, Lenin, and Rosa Luxemburg. He has also been calling for the elimination of the Fed, arguing that monetary policy and fiscal policy should be consolidated in the Treasury Department.
*Disclaimer: Some of the events reported here have not been fact-checked**.
**Disclaimer: Actually, none of the events reported here has yet occurred, although some are quite likely.
Garbage.
The yen will deflatively implode before the dollar. The yuan is being printed into oblivion.
" They were and still are clueless" should be changed to " at least they have met thier maker and we don't have to put up with that crap anymore"
Must read David Einhorn op-ed in today's NYT
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/05/david-einhorn-op-ed-easy-money-h...
Are you worried that we are passing our debt on to future generations? Well, you need not worry. Before this recession it appeared that absent action, the government’s long-term commitments would become a problem in a few decades. I believe the government response to the recession has created budgetary stress sufficient to bring about the crisis much sooner. Our generation — not our grandchildren’s — will have to deal with the consequences.
WTF?
This reads like a kid's letter from camp.
These morons run tha financial world?
Ah don' thin' so...
Duuude
I'm always amazed at just how truly stupid those in power and their mouth pieces are. Most public speak involves baffling them with bullshit.
I guess big wads of money in your pocket makes you look smarter, just like it makes you look more attractive with a larger penis.
Oh..so THATs why the girls laugh when I pull mine out. Damnit, why didn't I go to business school?
Don't forget to be amazed by the voters who (poor creatures) can't help but be just average, barely, in what they think of as intelligence.
my thoughts exactly - even the elites have been Cramerized.
It looks like "farcism" to those with excessive intelligence. Laugh, cry, pity them.
Guys, figure it out - it's the New York Times, not II (or ZH for that matter) - sure Einhorn could have "Greenspanned" the shit out of it and made himself look really smart, and made us, who are a little more financially astute than the US public at large, feel really smart and important because we can understand what the hell he's talking about, but that is not the point.
NYT is a mass-market publication and you need to speak to your audience to get your message across. If you want to persuade the "dum dums", you have to speak "dum dum". I think his article was incredibly lucid and to-the-point and I agree wholeheartedly with what he had to say.
It's amazing how fast the unthinkable can become the inevitable. We, as humans, tend to think in linear progressions, and the world doesn't work that way - In other words, when shit goes really bad (think one failed Treasury auction), it goes bad in an exponential way - hence the reason why words like "clusterfuck" exist. We could get to a point where we can't pay our bills as a country a hell of a lot faster than most people realize, and I, for one, don't want to see that shit.
That's his point. All due respect to the big brains on ZH...
Smug, casual air of someone who knows he'll be ok, regardless of what happens.
In other words, what women like. (And there is the actual root of the problem.)
"Anyhow, dear grizzlies....bet your [sic] worried about today’s rally? See u later."
LMAO!!! Is this guy kidding me? How much do you get paid Squid Jim? Clearly, it is WAY too much. Us "grizzlies" see this rally for what it really is, an opportunity. Thank your prop desk for us. PS- YOU SUCK!
agreed - he just smoked whatever credibility he had left - why didn't he just sign off TTYL BFFS!
Heh. And someone smart enough to work for Goldman should know that your != you're ...
http://www.innovationsinnewspapers.com/index.php/2010/05/25/less-hype-le...
Lovely graphic on just how useless Brit austerity has been so far.
that is a great picture.
and the English will be rioting about those cuts within 6 months IMO
Hey, it's only a lot of debt if you are trying to pay it back
he obviously lives on another planet
What a fucking douchebag.
My thoughts exactly. He is the definition of a Douche.
Yeah, I hate this guy more and more. I hate him on principle, I do not care if he is right, he is just so.... revolting. He is like a flying whore.
Psycho. Completely bonkers. "...the China/US economic outlook is simply way more important than all this European stuff." *snicker* Hasn't he picked up a paper in the last 20 years? IT'S ALL INTERCONNECTED NOW, ASSMUNCH. Welcome to the Global Economy.
Hyperinflation, dow = 50,000 = gold
Goldman is never right.......but they do always try to separate you from your money.
Jim, the phone is ringing:
"Not sure this type of smugness by god's firm should be surprising, or even deserve to be pointed out, but we just wanted to store this for posterity, as we are confident we will return to this quote on many occasions in the future."
Tyler, I love you but didn't mom ever tell you not to play with your food? Now settle down and eat your peas and carrots. :>)
I like the whole comment. For once, it is homogenous and the last line sums it up well.
The guy has no insight over the future and turns it into a kid/counter strike players game.
The guy has lost the plot, cast some thoughts without bothering to know if they are cogent (he does not have to care, he will get paid) and taunts his opposition as a diversion.
Self serving remarks as usual from the ponzi masters. They need the masses to keep pumping their hard earned money into the stock market so they can sell. Nothing new here, move along.
401K = 201K = 101K = 50.5K =25.25K=0000
Self serving remarks as usual from the ponzi masters. They need the masses to keep pumping their hard earned money into the stock market so they can sell. Nothing new here, move along.
401K = 201K = 101K = 50.5K =25.25K=0000
Some of the best replies ever on ZH! LMAO, Thanks!
bob janjuah and the bears love to heap it on the bull camp when the market melts... move along, nothing to see here.
Oh, how cute...we're trying to take out yesterdays highs.
It's that so ugly its cute, like a pug.
Heads I win, tails you get the shitty deal....
One can walk away from a deal like this, hands in pockets, ashamed that one didn't realize the foolishness of gambling.
Or
One can punch the scammer in the face, and take back your country back.
Fuck Goldman Sachs, the Fed, the corporations, the Republicans, the Democrats, the ratings agencies, the sold out regulators.... Fuck them all. This ain't about whether GS can manipulate the little arrow higher with all of the Fed funny money for one more day. We know the score. It's either $10 gas, or a full on default/depression/an end to social support/mass joblessness. Fuck you Jim, and careful about opening your door; one never can tell when it might be a lynch mob come for a little neighbor to neigbor time.
+$10
He shouldn't talk to grizzlies when he's sitting in the middle of so much rotting fruit
Rotting fermented fruit! Jim Oneil may as well be taping NY Strip steaks all over himself surrounded by grizzlies!
How much more will some nations take out of Whore Street (i.e. Goldman Sucks) before some sovereign Wet Suits pay late-night calls?
Interesting lack of movement on the vix since the open. I would have expected a much more precipitous drop
Kinda sad as eventually an angry mob will be dragging him kicking and screaming out onto the street.
Well, if this rally doesn't "stick" today, bulls are gonna be in a world of hurt.
Nothing but 'DOW 10K desperation mania', HairyWanger.
Jim (BRIC) Oneill sounds like a Yahoo! message board poster! 'Buy this stawk, cuz its goin up, got us an anal-yst upgrade'... these Wall St guys are adolescent punks!
I have sent Sven with the baby oil to meet him at the airport.
This guy is like a promoter for a leper piano player. Sure shes lost a few fingers, but.........
C'mon, Jim...only 28 more days of completely wrong prediction and you'll have suck-cess-fully shot the moon!
You can do it!
Good heavens the typos... he wrote this in the airport bar on the way out I assume?
Not to get all biblical but the phrase, "pride cometh before the fall" certainly seems appropriate to his bear taunts.
You know, in the olden days, the banksters used to mock the rabble too. The thing was that, back then, the rabble were a lot more scary.
Mandy in hot pink...mmmmmm
Ezekiel 33:6
Worry over todays rally? What does he mean, the futures prop job to DOW 10,100? Gee if the guy is celebrating a 1990's market level with this kind of in-your-face smugness, it actually comes across as fear to me!
Jim O'Neill is an idiot. I wish he'd use his ill-gotten GS wealth to buy out his beloved Man U. and fuck off to old Trafford for good.
On a related note, there's a picture of his underling Erik Nielsen on page 6 of this week's Financial News. Erik eerily bears a strong resemblance to Jim. I guess these inbred wankers must all be related to each other in some way.
He sounds pretty smug for what looks like a resistance test on the indexes. What are the odds the algos can push this sucker back up above the 200-dma?
Maybe he knows some pending news, that he thinks will juice the market. Right now the price action is as dry as dessicated coconut.
I don't think you guys are getting it. Judging by how much it spiked earlier they might need people to not just short but short hard to feed them enough go juice.
Sounds like either a taunt to sucker you in. Or a false bravado to scare you away. Thus weeding out the wimpy bears and only supplying the hardiest of stock that they need to get this pig back to 1050.
No Jim. Absolutely not worried. Unlike you, I invest and do not speculate. My positions are structured so that I cannot be stopped out. See you in a week when Spain get monkey hammered.
Incidently, I am copying this gem - "the China/US economic outlook is simply way more important than all this European stuff" -
That one will hunt you for the rest of your career.
That ongoing buying support I detected has morphed into a rally...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
This man's constant obsession with BRICs can be explained here.
THICK AS A BRIC:
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/05/thick-as-bric.html
A frank and intensive discussion yields no results – as Geithner abruptly ends joint news conference; the French European minister cheerfully admits that the EU has broken the Treaty with its rescue package; financial markets recovered some of the recently losses yesterday, but the euro has reversed its temporary gains; the rally was prompted by a Chinese denial that it would get out of euros, but analysts remain convinced that the crisis affects China’s strategy; Philip Stephens says Merkel’s zero-sum Europe reminds him of Thatcher’s policies, except that Europe won’t be able to stomach a Europhobic Germany quite as well; Gillian Tett says global investors are beginning to realise that they can look forward to a Greek haircut; Paul Krugman says Reinhart and Rogoff are wrong on the magic dividing line of a 90% debt-to-GDP ratio; Otmar Issing, meanwhile, attacks his countrymen’s obsession with speculators, saying this deflects from the true cause of the crisis.
Someone didn't get the memo. Then again Jim can ascribe it all to his anxiety induced bravado, more widely known as LDS.. er .. Goldman envy.
http://www.eurointelligence.com/
... in aggregate, the Euro Area is in modest, current account surplus, and its Broad Basic balance is in surplus too. And, even before the fiscal tightening announced in various Club Med countries in the past couple of weeks, the aggregate fiscal position appears better than the US.
Man, if having access to those uncut green shoots goes with being a Goldmanite then the true meaning of Goldman envy becomes apparent to hopium smokers everywhere who are still addicted to the hallucination that Goldman actually cares about them. Must be dragon chasing season up in Sweden this weekend...