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Goldman's Jim O'Neill Plays Dumb Cop Again, Sees Commodity Prices Dropping, Contradicts, Well, Goldman

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Confused about the Goldman "approach" to forecasting? After reading the following most recent note from GSAM chairman Jim "BRIC" O'Neill you won't be: just predict the opposite of everything your other colleagues at Goldman anticipate, and you are covered. Indeed, in his latest note, the BRICster not only directly contradicts David Greely's latest note that the long-term prospects for commodities are strong as ever by saying that "This suggests to me that commodity prices could weaken further." (for what "this" is, read the note). As for Thomas Stolper's soon to be stopped out prediction of a EURUSD hitting 1.50, O'Neill has some contrarian cold water for that too: "In my book, even with the likelihood that the Fed will remain friendly post QE2 termination, the Euro belongs in a 1.20-1.40 range." So there you have it: one firm, an infinite number of outlooks. That way, they will always be right. As for who Goldman's clients should listen to? We suggest - nobody. But since that REDI/Sigma X feed needs serious soft dollar cash infusions, that is probably not an option. So just flip a coin. Someone will be right.

From Jim O'Neill.

Can Equities Rally Without Commodities?

What a week! In last weekend’s Viewpoint, in addition to highlighting the historical tendencies of markets in May, I suggested that commodity price strength didn’t make much sense to me. One week later, after the stunning correction to many commodities, I am struggling to get my head around the question: why does commodity price weakness go hand in hand with equity weakness? Put another way, if equities are to develop another leg to the rally that has been taking place since 2009, it will probably have to be led by something other than commodities.

ECONOMICS, EQUITY AND COMMODITY MARKETS.

There was a day when commodities, as an asset class, were seen as an alternative to both fixed income and equities. I know that many of my colleagues from various parts of the GS family can statistically prove that this remains the case. However, at times during the past decade, it has seemed that commodity prices have been a “bellwether” about the world. Furthermore, strength in commodity prices has been related to strength in many equity markets (as well as a major influence on some other markets such as some currencies).

From an economic perspective, at its most basic level, the price of any commodity is determined by its supply and demand and expectations about both. An increase in the price of a commodity can happen because of a rise in demand relative to supply, or a decline in supply, or some combination of both. In the years before the global credit crunch, it was often perceived that commodity prices were rising because of very strong global growth and limited supplies. Post credit crunch, the same general mood has prevailed.

Linked to this thesis, application of the GS long term 2050 growth projections and the potential rise of the BRIC economies suggest a general environment of very strong demand for commodities relative to supply. The GS Economics, Commodities and Strategy (ECS) department have published a number of articles to show this. In particular, Global Paper Number 118, October 12th, 2004; Crude, Cars and Capital, authored by D.  Wilson, R. Purushothaman and T. Fiotakis applied the original 2050 projections to the crude oil markets, and one of its conclusions was that there was likely to be a major supply and demand imbalance between 2005 and 2020.

Many market themes that have played out over recent years often relate to the basic tenet of this paper. Simply stated, Mr. Market seems to regard strength of commodity prices as a symbol of world economic strength, and weakness of commodity prices as a symbol of economic weakness.

THINGS ARE CHANGING?

Many market participants appear to have forgotten the days of the 1980’s and 1990’s where economic strength was not symbolized through rising commodity prices. During that time, we had two decades of declining commodity prices and, while there were periods of recession, we experienced two decades of global economic expansion. Could such days ever return?

Over the past 12 months, three different economic issues have developed in my mind that lead me to wonder whether things might be changing.
First, as commodity prices recovered sharply post the global credit crisis, headline inflation has, in turn, risen in many countries. And, in those less wealthy nations, including many of the Growth Market and emerging countries, rising commodity prices are a real challenge. In some developed economies that were most challenged after the credit crisis, rising commodity prices are quite a burden for those societies too. A feeling of  unsustainability about this has been going through my mind for much of this year.

At a minimum, we are likely to encounter more mini periods of volatility, where rising commodity prices, food and energy in particular, choke off some economic activity as consumers and business adjust to the higher costs. In countries where overall inflation rises more because of these rising prices and central banks tighten monetary policy, subsequent tightening financial conditions will slow down growth and probably lessen their contribution to the demand for the commodities in the first place. It appears as though we might be going through such a period right now.

Suddenly, economic data in many economies has disappointed, and while there could be a number of explanations, it seems quite feasible that the degree of increase in energy and food prices might be a guilty culprit.

Second, and linked to the first point, as I mentioned last week, the role of China in particular is key. GS has a proprietary GDP indicator for China called the GSCA, the GS China Activity indicator. In recent years, it has had a very good relationship with commodity prices, presumably signaling the critical role that Chinese demand plays in the commodity markets. In recent months, the GSCA has slowed a lot, and yet, commodity prices – at least until the past week – hadn’t. This suggests to me that commodity prices could weaken further.

More broadly, softening in key global leading indicators following the release of many May PMI and ISM indices would suggest the same trend.

Third, bringing it back to China, and getting really specific to energy and oil in particular, China’s long term economic planning is increasingly based on a world different from the one modeled by ourselves in 2004. If you reanalyze global oil demand assuming that China will deliver on the energy consumption plans it has unveiled as part of its latest 5-year plan, their oil demand will not grow even close to the magnitude shown in Dominic and team’s 2004 paper. Indeed, Anna Stupnytska and I showed in another paper, Global Paper Number 192, The Long Term Outlook for the BRICs and N11 Post Crisis, December 2009, if you substitute the Chinese plans into the same equations as the 2004 paper, 2050 global oil demand would be 20 pct less.

If I think about all three of these things together, what happened in commodity markets last week was not surprising at all, and more weakness in the near term wouldn’t be that surprising either.

MARKETS NEED TO BEHAVE FOR THEIR OWN DETERMINANTS.

As this relates to other markets, it doesn’t necessarily follow that any additional weakness in commodity prices will translate into more equity market weakness, except in the obvious cases where commodity companies are a major market component. It certainly shouldn’t follow that correlated risk reduction on the back of commodity price declines should have lasting consequences for other market prices, for example additional Yen strength. This would seem somewhat ludicrous and, if needed, I suspect G7 policymakers may have to act again.

As it relates to the directional trend of equity markets, however, the last week’s events do draw me to a conclusion that if equities are to develop another leg into higher prices, it probably won’t be sustained if it is simply the result of commodity prices recovering. If commodity prices go straight back up, it will add renewed pressure to headline consumer prices in China and elsewhere, probably resulting in additional monetary tightening.

If commodity prices don’t move back up, one of the beneficial consequences is that it will make it probable that a number of central banks won’t need to tighten as much as otherwise, possibly not at all, including China and maybe also the ECB. It is interesting that ECB President Trichet didn’t utter the magical phrase “strong vigilance “at this week’s press conference.

Can equity markets rally without leadership of commodity companies and prices? Of course they can, but I shall leave the sectors most likely to all of you to ponder.

EURO WOES.

There is one other topic that I need to touch upon. After already showing a big response to Trichet’s less hawkish stance than expected, the Euro took another hit late Friday as rumours circulated of a special meeting to discuss Greece and a possible debt restructuring and even talk of them exiting the Euro. Not surprisingly, these rumours were denied but, despite this, the Euro ended close to its lows for the week, having given back 6 big figures of its latest strength. I am not overly surprised by this Euro decline either, as the case for the ECB tightening further has just been weakened. And, it continues to seem to me that some risk premia is warranted, as Europe’s leaders struggle to come to grips with the immense challenges of creating a more credible and successful European Monetary Union. In my book, even with the likelihood that the Fed will remain friendly post QE2 termination, the Euro belongs in a 1.20-1.40 range.

THE BEAUTIFUL GAME.

Actually there is one other topic too, my usual favourite. May 28th will now see arguably the two best European football clubs slugging it out again when Manchester United meets Barcelona at Wembley. What an evening in prospect and what a build-up the next 3 weeks will be. Will it attract as many viewers as the Royal Wedding? Apologies to all those of you asking me for help with tickets, it is exceptionally difficult.

Jim O’Neill

Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

 


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Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:50 | Link to Comment silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

Perfect trading records everyday for everybody..

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:50 | Link to Comment DutchTreat
DutchTreat's picture

The Double Headed Squid.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 08:21 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

you mean like sell Timberwolf I to their clients, then bet against it?

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:57 | Link to Comment Mr Sceptical
Mr Sceptical's picture

I agree on euro belonging between 1.20 - 1.40. Everything else in the note is just bull shit...

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 08:01 | Link to Comment Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

AM Silver surge.  Slow grind up in overnight.  Maybe too much too quick, but . . .

(Could be a London head fake as seems to be volatile.)

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:58 | Link to Comment Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

The squid knows I have been doing the opposite of what they recommend, now they are recommending both directions to throw me off.

 

 

 

<HELP> for explanation.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 08:28 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

It's a form of parasitic adaptation. Even though most of its clients are still gullible enough to follow its advice, the squid has sussed that some people (such as yourself) are no longer blinded by its ink sac ejections and profit by following the diametric opposite of its soothsaying. This disturbs the squid because it runs counter to its goal of accumulating more of everything.

The squid has adapted to your ability to see through its inkscreen by sending out legions of cuttlefish (which, according to wikipedia, are among the most intelligent invertibrates) which then proceed to issue all possible recommendations on all possible issues.

This benefits the squid in two ways. First, it becomes more difficult to discern the squid's true recommendation and its paired opposite, the recommendation for its clients. Second, after its clients lose a metric assload of money, it can point to the cuttlefish which made the best recommendation and then blame the clients for not following its advice.

 

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 08:36 | Link to Comment rocker
rocker's picture

Speaking of parasites, when will they put Lord Blankfein and Neel Kashkari in Jail ?     Still waiting.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 08:03 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

no different than selling MBS to your clients and then betting against the mortgages for defaulting

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 08:18 | Link to Comment silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

Heads we win Tails you lose..

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 08:07 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Short dollar trade is crowded.

Correct range for the Euro is $1.20-$1.40

Which means lower PMs, bitchez.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 08:28 | Link to Comment Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Euro appears to be rallying.  Check that.  Greece won't shut up.

That short dollar crowd moved long dollar last week.

(Long dollar could have more staying power if Greek drama continues dominating the headlines.)

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 08:27 | Link to Comment gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Global Paper Number 118, October 12th, 2004; Crude, Cars and Capital, authored by D.  Wilson, R. Purushothaman and T. Fiotakis applied the original 2050 projections to the crude oil markets, and one of its conclusions was that there was likely to be a major supply and demand imbalance between 2005 and 2020.  HAY I KNEW THAT. This is like saying it might rain roughly 500-600 times between 2005 and 2020. These guys are better than the GREAT CARNAK..........

GS just another MAGNETAR

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 08:42 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

Silver on its way to 30 after a short blip when greed temporarily equated selling  panic. 

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 09:21 | Link to Comment JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

You make some good points, but not buying today on anticipation of better prices in a year is a bit of a gamble. It is also plausible that hyperinflation kicks in by end of the year and our opportunity today is lost. Considering your projection of silver eventually hitting $100 in the foreseeable future, it would seem that buying now is an acceptable risk for paying a bit more now versus not being able to buy at all later.

But I want to say I like your posts as they seem well considered and prognostic to the degree I have followed them over the last few months.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Hedging the forecast. That way if it goes sour you simply show them the hedged forecast.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!