Goldman's Latest EURUSD Outlook

Tyler Durden's picture

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Spitzer's picture

The Euro is a better currency then the dollar. It is taking the place as the least worse fiat

Long-John-Silver's picture

That's sort of like saying it's better to go over the cliff in a BMW than a Chevy.

narapoiddyslexia's picture

Or the least ugly whore... who might or might not knife you in your sleep. But, still, I can see where more responsible Europeans might salvage their fiat.

Spitzer's picture

Yes, the Euro is the least worst fiat, not the dollar.

Ahmeexnal's picture

Wrong.

CHF is the best choice. Specially pre-1967 coinage.

Spitzer's picture

ah yes that is the conventional wisdom and we all know how that ends.

Who doesn't know that the Euro is dommed ?

The Euro was designed to take over the dollar, that is why it exists. This is an easy fight for Trichet. He knows that his opponenent is a clueless keynesian retard. Notice how this morning Germany is talking about resructuring Greek debt ? Rate hikes and debt restructuring talk. The ECB is so much further ahead of the Fed that is no contest anymore.

 

barkingbill's picture

id rather go over the cliff in a bmw actually. 

barkingbill's picture

if you are bearish the dollar, then why not be long the euro? i am. 

FOC 1183's picture

"Cross asset relationships with currencies are typically unstable; over time, sensitivities of currencies to other assets tend to change. So our framework is trying to capture the most recent market sensitivities. For that reason, these regressions are run over a rolling sample of 12 months to reflect current market sensitivities"

 

meaning...by the time r-squared reaches 74%, the correlations (and thus model itself) are about to break down

alien-IQ's picture

I once used this same mathematical model to forecast the likelihood of Jessica Alba showing up at my door, naked, and immediately dropping to her knees and blowing me. The results were quite encouraging. It was a 92% probability. So I've got that going for me.

I am, however, still waiting for her to arrive...Any day now, though. For sure...Any day now.

narapoiddyslexia's picture

She's blowing Ben. That's what makes all those little sheets of green linen fly out his ass. And that's why he's always smiling nervously. You don't ever see a full-frontal picture of Ben standing, do you? 

alien-IQ's picture

I am now, more than ever, certain that Goldman has a Psychobabble Department that actually writes all this shit.

Urban Redneck's picture

They are positioning for a no-bid contract from the DoD to help them with their Powerpoints.

jkruffin's picture

You know what the worst part of it is?  It's not that Goldman is nothing more than a thief and crook organization, it's the fact that people out there still take their advice and follow what they say.  After all they did screwing people from 2004-2008 and beyond,  people still do business with these crooks.  Unbelievable!!!!!!!

Dick Darlington's picture

And those aggressively rising yields on Spanish govies plus the rest of the insolvent periphery is extremely bullish for EUR. Do these guys really get paid for this spin? Ah, of course they do, coz they always take the opposite side of the trades they recommend to their clients.

Portugal's picture

"Goldman is still calling for 1.50 on the EURUSD, driven by dollar weakness and increasing European interest rates (which will surely succeed in bringing the EUR to infinity, and then promptly lead to the destruction of the currency when half the European continent files for bankruptcy)" ...but when that happens, where will the USD be ?

bigargon's picture

Go Long Anal lubricant and Preparation H as we bend you over again.

SheepDog-One's picture

I didnt know it took highly placed anal-cysts in GS to do commentary on the drunken hobo currencies staggering down the alley arm in arm.

pendragon's picture

the amazing thing is that all these "smart" money managers have bought into this crap. the european periphery is a basket case. even john r taylor seems be be long the euro these days. the herd of sheep is charging off the cliff

SheepDog-One's picture

I sat at lunch Saturday with 3 bankaz at an ex-Bennigans for lunch, now its called Flatirons for anyone wondering, anyway my dad and my 2 brothers all bankers 'money managers' are completely clueless. One of them heads up a loan dept, believe me theyre all clueless as the avg sheeple youd see in any Walmart. 

pendragon's picture

it is as much the short sighted-ness as the clueless-ness. no-one really believes that peripheral europe can withstand higher rates but the idiots are still happy to pick up the pennies in front of the steam roller. someone else's money i guess

ZeroPower's picture

There's a difference between clueless retail bankers, and the true financier ballers.

pendragon's picture

the level of criminality?

falak pema's picture

dead on. One financial retail banker I know wants to bury alive the trading arm of his own bank. That's how bad the intra bank hatred lies. Blood on the walls...except that its the traders who make all the money even today...so they laugh at the rants of their retail colleagues who have no idea what's up ahead, and take their trader bonuses home to spend.

ZeroPower's picture

"wants to bury [them] alive" = do you figure he's jealous he's stuck in the shitty retail arm? Traders make the money, the invesment bankers, asset managers, pretty much any non teller or other retail banker provides some value added to the bank. Why do we still need tellers? Dont even senior citizens know how to withdraw funds from the ATM, or do e-payments? 

falak pema's picture

wants to Bury them 'cos he feels that sooner or later the retail arm, selling to private rich clients (he is a private client 'hyper rich' elite, banker) who do due diligence, will be pulled down when their trading arm will ruin the bank. He admits the shadow banking risk is ENORMOUS!

SheepDog-One's picture

I think even most of the bigwigs are pretty much clueless brainwashed yes men.

Global Hunter's picture

I agree SheepDog, this is what they learned in Finance undergrad, then MBA then as juniors in their banks or brokerages.  Its similar to nuclear industry experts saying "ah well it was the tsunami that caused the meltdowns it can never happen again." 

This stuff was not covered in their textbooks and most educated people have lost the power of intuition and their sense of logic is askew. 

SheepDog-One's picture

Thats right, hardly anyone now has any ability to think past what the herd thinks, what theyre told to think by talking heads on TV, even the big bankers think what theyre told to think by a director.

ZeroPower's picture

Sure, brainwashed to the fact that theyre (mostly) loyal to their firm. Whats good for firm XYZ is thus good for me, so i will be brainwashed to do/say whatever is beneficial to this end.

Means to an end isn't always right, but i propose the means to an end isn't right in many other professional instances.

Cdad's picture

"...what is important is that due to some regression model thingy, the EUR has room to run..."

Huh?  Come again?  I knew I should have taken foreign language classes in high school.

Just like the criminal syndicate Wall Street banker on the BlowHorn [CNBC] just now, one of hundreds asked the same thing in the last two years, the question, "What is it going to bring investors back into the market?"  His answer:  paraphrasing, we think investors have come back.

In bizzaro world America, and especially if you are a member of the New American Marxist/Banker Party, if you say it, it is.  Never mind the facts.  If you got Ben Bernanke pumping up your trading account every single day, then investors have returned.

And also, because of regression model thingys, little Miss Euro the bimbo has room to run?  And this will bring down oil on continued dollar weakness, and metals too?  WTF?  Someone best check the fluoride levels in the drinking fountains over at Goldman Sachs.  I mean if you are going to ram the market up, fine...just say it.  But all this other stuff?

SheepDog-One's picture

'EUR has room to run'...apparently the highly placed colonic GS anal-cyst believes one of the currency hobos staggering down the alleyway is about to get a second wind and sprint out into the freeway traffic?

Cdad's picture

LOL!  You kill me, Dog.

And just now...oh good grief...Steve Liesman is literally trying to kill himself by drowning in a glass of his own kool aid.  He simply refuses to accept that inflation is rising even as his colleagues prepare an emergency intervention on his behalf.  Good grief, even M. Francis just pants'd the guy.

Someone earlier commented on Liesman being the suck up man...holy cow...bingo.  I wonder if Ben Bernanke will announce an emergency rate hike just to save Steve's life?  If he drowns on set today, Bernanke is going to have to take responsibility for his death.

Steve!  Stop!

ZeroPower's picture

Liesman, man oh man.

Missing Jeff Macke or at least Santelli : Liesman rounds.

Jack Sheet's picture

Highest quality, Good-Housekeeping-seal-of-approval bullcrap.

carbonmutant's picture

Goldman must be buying Dollars...

Cdad's picture

Exactly.  I cannot wait for Goldman to change its mind on Monday morning about....EVERYTHING.  We thought the Euro had room to run...but it didn't...and we JUST LEARNED that half of Europe is...er...insolvent.  Sorry.  Buy dollars.

Again, it is almost like they either think the entire nation is blind...or stupid.  I rather think the criminal syndicate is actually the retarded kid in the room.  Just look at the Lutnick puke from last night on Kudlow.  I really think these bankers are just dumb as rocks.  Someone prove me wrong, please.

SheepDog-One's picture

I believe even the big banksters are just drones who do as theyre told, and happy to do it as long as the free money keeps flowing. They ask no questions, and know NOTHING!

Leo Kolivakis's picture

''Themistoklis'' is Greek for Timmy! LOL!

Oh regional Indian's picture

At some point, all fiat must implode into worthlessness. When will that point come?

When war becomes WAR. And you can bet yoru bottom benny, WAR is around the corner, given that many wars are well underway. It's a classic pattern.

All this shamelessness that we see on display is due to inside knowledge that the great re-set is on it's merry way. As Gurdjieff said, the inexplicable tendency of humans for periodic, reciprocal destruction.

Most people and sheeple and institutions are just collateral damage.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/06/18/of-tipping-points-and-shape-shifting/

SheepDog-One's picture

We'll soon see some 'Pearl Harbor event', like what kicked off WW2 big time after wars had been going on for a couple years already. We're about at that point to see it, and in this coming case like Pearl Harbor, they knew all about it ahead of time.

Ahmeexnal's picture

 

Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: 'Account overdrawn.'

 

 

 

AGoldhamster's picture

Unfortunately I have again to disagree - GS will again be right:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vQQFSJ75HSk/TacksqCrPqI/AAAAAAAAANc/M9eVMVTaPY4/s1600/EURUSD_20110414A.png

Just a matter of time. Latest within the next 6 weeks, but likely much earlier.

milanitaly's picture

2. Stay long 10-yr Spanish Bonos vs. Italian BTPs, opened at 54bp on 25 February 2011, for a target of 0bp and a stop on a close above 80bp, now at 61.7bp.

Are they crazy? Target 0bps!!! Spanish bonos 5,42% Italian BTP 4,73%

Do they want the italian default? Do they know that Spain will discover gold under Madrid?