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Goldman's NFP Summary: "Hiring Remains Anemic"
On one hand you have Mark Zandi, whose ongoing attempts to brown-nose the entire administration and fill Romer's big shoes are getting outright pathetic. On the other, you have Goldman: "Report underscores weak tone of US labor market. Payrolls rise only 12k
abstracting from discharge of temporary Census workers as job losses in
state and local government offset most of a roughly in-line increase in
private-sector payrolls; prior data revised down. Household survey
confirms job losses, with jobless rate holding steady only because labor
force continues to decline. Wage and workweek data recover slightly
after weakness in June."
USA: Non-Farm Payroll Employment - Hiring Remains Anemic
Actual: -131,000 mom
Previous: -221,000 mom
Consensus: -65,000
Released: Friday, August 06, 2010 at 08:30 (New York time)
Hiring Remains Anemic
BOTTOM LINE: Report underscores weak tone of US labor market. Payrolls rise only 12k abstracting from discharge of temporary Census workers as job losses in state and local government offset most of a roughly in-line increase in private-sector payrolls; prior data revised down. Household survey confirms job losses, with jobless rate holding steady only because labor force continues to decline. Wage and workweek data recover slightly after weakness in June.
US-MAP: Nonfarm payrolls -10 (5, -2), with 1-point judgmental adjustment for revisions.
Unemployment rate 0 (5, 0), with a 1-point judgmental adjustment for labor force weakness.
KEY NUMBERS:
Nonfarm payrolls -131k in July vs. GS -75k, median forecast -65k.
Private payrolls +71k in July vs. GS +75k, median forecast +90k.
Unemployment rate unchanged at 9.5% in July vs. GS and median forecast 9.6%.
Average hourly earnings +0.2% in July (mom, +1.8% yoy) vs. GS and median forecast +0.1%.
MAIN POINTS:
1. Private-sector hiring remained anemic in July as employers added only 71k to their payrolls. Half of this (36k) was in manufacturing, where indicators are pointing to slower growth. Other cyclically sensitive sectors were weak, with temporary workers off 6k, construction down 11k, and retail up only 7k. State and local governments shed 48k jobs, presumably a reflecting of budget stresses as most of these jurisdictions began a new fiscal year in July. The discharge of 143k Census workers dragged overall payrolls down 131k.
2. Figures for prior months were revised down by a total of 92k for all payrolls, including the federal government. The revisions took 52k jobs away from the June increase in private jobs (though May was revised up modestly). Following these revisions, the trend in private hiring now features three consecutive months of increases under 75k, following much larger gains in February and March (averaging 200k). So the payroll data for Q2 support other indications of a significant slowing in US economic activity, except in manufacturing.
3. The parallel survey of households confirms the job losses reported in the headline payroll figures. Overall employment fell 159k in July and 315k on a payroll-adjusted basis (though this figure is quite noisy). The only reason the unemployment rate held steady was because 181k individuals left the labor force. The other measures of underemployment held relatively steady; for example, the U6 figure that includes marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons was flat at 16.5%.
4. Data on hourly earnings and workweeks were somewhat better - workweeks up 0.1 hour in both manufacturing (to 40.1 hours) and the broader economy (34.2), and wages rose 0.2%. But in both cases the data for June had been weak. The year-to-year trend in hourly earnings remains low, at 1.8%.
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Speaking of Goldman:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB-J8JtF-lE&feature=player_embedded
Hi, how are you this fine day? I see that you grabbed the top spot and provided a link to a YouTube video. Using Goldman as the tease, I followed your link. I have no opinion on the video topic, but I do feel that you misled me. If you have something to say, perhaps you should write up a contribution and offer it to ZH here: Create content.
I'm not certain how others may feel about your comment, and I may be just too dense to see the use for it. Please feel free to point out my error in appraising its relevance. Otherwise, I would appreciate it if you would post a comment that is on topic. Thank you for your time.
RR
Thank you for your civil tongue when expressing your opinion, something that's been in short supply on ZH of late.
Opportunities to spin are used by all sides of every argument, including those who claim righteous indignation and victimization. Not saying the video is correct, incorrect or just plain propaganda. But everyone has an agenda, something I've pointed out in some of my articles. Believe no one, including me. Do your own research, apply critical thinking and you'll live to see another day.
Yes, it was misleading.. In a way.. Perhaps the point that can be taken is how we are constantly being fed information on political and financial fronts that may not reflect the reality of the situation.
I also appreciate your civility. When I see the terror that Israel subjects Palestinians to, my opinion becomes strong and my determination follows.
When people wake up to the social injustices in one place, they are prone to see them in other places as well.
"A threat to justice anywhere, is a threat to justice everywhere" MLK
There is a strong connection between the forces of finance and the repression of society.
I agree with CD.. Do the research. While you may not have an opinion of how the world turns its back on the suffering of Palestinians, I feel there can be no justice until all people are viewed to have value. That does not begin or end at the shores of the Atlantic or the numbers on a bank account.
Yes, I stole the top spot. I saw the video and became enraged. Human suffering is at the top of my list of concerns. That will not change with any verbal assault or condemnation of my comments.
I will claw and tear at the system that has been designed to ignore human suffering and replace it with greed and commercialism. Nor will I apologize for it. No doubt an agenda. At least I will admit it and will not hide behind anything to project it.
It would be easier to sympathize with the Palestinians if they didnt fuckin SUCK so much
Okay.. you got me..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6ZX9aIfNUE&playnext=1&videos=HIcRt6gLX6g
Now that's just not fair. Showing how we're all humans that bleed and heal and laugh and cry and love our families and friends and work and play and are humans beings who just wish to exist in peace.
You've gone and ruined all that hate and anger that was so carefully built up. Now we're going to have to start all over again dividing each other so we can begin to hate again.
Thanks a lot.
Your Welcome..
I was gonna save it for the eve of "hate week".. LOL
Well if they stop the blood sucking the patient might begin the road to recovery.
EUR thru resist @ 1.3267
I'm really eager to see how the numbers are spun by various media.
Left/conservative/Republican/Fox will ream Obama on the numbers.
Right/liberal/Democrat/MSNBC will stroke the numbers accordingly.
Sigh.... the game goes on.
Atleast with the collapse Goldman will be dead and buried. Something good will come out of the ruins.
Sadly Goldman will be one of the survivors, based simply upon who has won so far. To consider that power will be totally redistributed during any collapse is naive in my opinion. Goldman has consistently shown it has the right connections. And even in a collapse, connections will save your ass.
Please remember one thing. After any collapse, please point out the people who will be willing to jump into the mess and bring back "order". The answer, of course, is the sociopaths once again. While means collapse will only hurt those who are most vulnerable and reward those who are most exploitive.
The only way around this equation is if the average Joe grows some balls and begins to take responsibility for his or her own actions and future. I don't see that happening until and unless there is a general spiritual awakening. One of the best ways of stopping a spiritual awakening in it's tracks is to drive people down Maslow's hierarchy of needs pyramid and get everyone to start looking at their navels rather than expanding their minds. That's precisely what's happening here and now.
Just an opinion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow's_hierarchy_of_needs
Agreed.. I would add that their greatest accomplishment was to transform our society to one where the individual only needs to show the appearance of concern for the suffering of others. This appearance of concern can easily substitute actual concern and accepted as charity while supporting the consensus that a large part of our society must live in poverty to accomplish social and economic advancements.
The thread about Food Stamps yesterday was a perfect example. The wolves came out in force to blame the poor for their need for charity. Even though this contradicts the knowledge we all have that our lack of good jobs with decent wages is the real culprit for the majority of poverty in this nation. I saw no mention of how our industry was shipped to the rest of the world leaving us with an ever increasing need for employment.
The successful conditioning of our nation's population never ceases to amaze me..
It's successful because we allow it to happen and willingly accept the programming. As long as we can be convinced that taking our slice of the pie won't hurt anyone else (or we can't see through our willful blindness or we can't/won't/aren't held responsible for the suffering of others) we can indulge in narcissistic gorging without remorse.
This is done through the systematic application of isolation techniques via TV/Movie/iPhone and other personal entertainment devices. So much easier to ignore that starving child on TV than that hungry next door neighbor pounding on your door, begging for help. Just remember that if you refuse the neighbor help, the next time the hungry neighbor shows up on your front door, s/he won't be nearly as polite.
Family first.......followed extremely closely by local community second. And sometimes we must place community first.
Well said. I would also add how difficult it is to stray from the conditioning and the verbal abuse along with the chastizing one recieves for taking a more objective view of our society.
Thought you might like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQ3xxwQvVnE&feature=player_embedded
Anemic
What a friggin Uderstatement.
The old solutions are failing. There is no evidence of cyclicity in the employment data ie there's no evidence that the normal business cycle will correct the situation. What we have is a breakdown in the old post World War 2 economic success formula for the US (and much of the developed world)
The clear trend is economic weakness. That's the only definite conclusion. And we already knew that simply from looking around us.
Governmental revisions to imprecise data, and statistical considerations relating to imprecision of the data even if one for whatever reason trusts the data, make the above discussion by Goldman of limited value.
It's more profound than that. One could say "weakness" when economic parameters like employment respond in the anticipated fashion to other parameters like monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and a cyclic upturn in inventory re-stocking. To name just a few. What we have here is nothing less than the collapse of what once worked, the post-war economic success formula. Call it a "bubble", call it what you want. It's burst. It no longer can produce what it once did and trying to revive it is like beating a dead horse. Worse, more easing like QE2 can stoke up inflation and a further collapse of the economic infrastructure.
We're just in a "stick your head in the sand" period of denial where people are just wishing and hoping that it isn't true.
If most Americans have a choice between extended UI or welfare and food stamps, exactly what mortgage and loan repayments are they going to make to the banks?
For the percentage of jobs shipped offshore, that same percentage of credit card, student loan, mortgage loans, and autoloans will default, and the same portion of bankers will vanish.
this report was anemic like Karen Carpenter was slightly underweight
YES WE CAN'T
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/08/untitled.html
Any comments on the exactly opposite move of the stock markets in Europe and the EUR/USD upon the announcement of the NFP numbers? This was a first for at least three years or so. Was it some kind of a major turning point?
Any replies explanations welcome.
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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