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Goldman's NFP Take
From Goldman Sachs
MAIN POINTS:
1. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 244k in April, more than expected, and previous months were revised up by a net 46k. Stronger retail employment accounted for much of the acceleration: this sector added 57k jobs after losing 3k in March. Partly this may reflect seasonal effects due to the timing of Easter, but most reports from the retail sector have been strong, and we therefore think the number is mostly clean. Total service-providing employment growth accelerated by a smaller amount - to 224k from 194k - due primarily to weaker gains in temporary employment (the hiring event by McDonald's Corporation would have appeared in leisure and hospitality employment, which grew at a similar pace as in March). Good-producing employment gains were roughly in line with recent trends, with a sizable increase in manufacturing and small but positive growth in construction employment. Government subtracted 24k from total payrolls; total private employment rose by 268k - the largest monthly increase since 2006. We see some reason to believe that seasonal effects could have added a little to nonfarm payrolls, but this does not look to be the dominant reason for the strong result (see yesterday's US Daily for details).
2. Results from the household survey were disappointing. Total household employment fell by 190k, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.0% (8.96% unrounded) from 8.8% previously. Results were somewhat better after adjusting for methodological consistency with the nonfarm payroll data; on this basis the household survey measure of employment would have increased by 50k. However, the labor force participation rate was unchanged during the month, indicating that the rise in the unemployment rate reflected job losses rather than an influx of persons into the labor force. While the news was discouraging, it follows four months of declining unemployment, and the level of the unemployment rate remains down 1.1 percentage points from its peak. The employment-to-population ratio fell slightly to 58.4% from 58.5% previously.
3. Finally, average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% mom, slightly less than expected. However, growth in both February and March was revised up. The payroll gains and better growth in average hourly earnings - plus the sudden drop in oil prices - should support consumer incomes and spending later this year.
4. After the Employment Report, our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) showed growth of 2.3% in April, down from 4.0% in March. The deceleration mostly reflects weaker survey-based data (e.g. the non-manufacturing ISM and Philly reports), and indicates a cooling in overall growth early in Q2.
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Goldman Snakes Bitchez!!!
I laugh every time they include that CAI in a report...if we can't grow our way out, we'll goalseek our way out!
See, even the smart goldman knew that the report is really good!
Did I tell you buy the FD?
Did SP went higher?
But did the CAI beat??
You bet, Goldman. Remains encouraging. Russell 2000 UP for the week. Well done.
BTW, I don't write /sarc at the end of my posts because most ZH readers are smart and understand I'm genuinely digusted by the entire state of things. And I've recently taken, what will likely to be the dumbest trade ever--admittedly, a short position on the most overvalued asset class in U.S. markets: the Russell 2000.
It's a contrarian bet, right. I mean its been the best of the indexes for 10 years now (equities in states), it's wildly overvalued and no one cares, and I've got every large status quo rep from Benny to Obama to Jamie working against me, along with about 180 million sheeple that have their heads buried in the sands. So what could go wrong, right?
I love it, that thing has traded up like a crackhead who just found a rock the size of a softball. Best of luck, it is freakishly overvalued.
Gotta love a good shill with a bad tell...
Gotta love PSLV this morning, up 6.5% versus SLV up 2.8%. Did people just realize THERE IS A DIFFERENCE? lol...
I'm a no0b... what's the difference?
lulz to you sir... PSLV is a trust run by eric sprott specializing in taking delivery of actually silver, the SLV is, well, a huge scam.
I thought paper is paper and physical is physical and that's pretty much that... no?
nope, PSLV is kinda like the anti-paper paper product. http://www.sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/
They actually have the silver, whereas SLV issues way more paper than they have OZ's to back it up, or so the rumor goes...
Thanks for the info. Time to do my due diligence.
Don,
Most don't get even this rudimentary point: Unless you have about 400,000 U.S. dollars in Sprott's Trust you will not get delivery--that is the bar to recieve delivery should one choose. Otherwise, you are as fucked as SLV if you want or need delivery--meaning you will always just hold a paper contract at this point which only underlies real silver. In the end, unless you are very very high net worth the difference of delivery really won't help you.
Aside from that, if you have a taxable account the Sprott Silver Trust is taxed at a long term rate of 15% (at least until the cap gains rate changes) and Silver Trust (SLV) is taxed at your ordinary income tax bracket no matter how long you hold the fucker.
So beware of those things: taxes, delivery, type of account held in, etc. before buying.
$400K!?!?!? Too rich for my blood. If I wanted a single bar whose value is that big, I'd buy gold instead anyway...
Thanks for the lesson 6.
excellent info. thank you.
All great points, I guess the only one I was trying to make is that at least PSLV will trade price wise AS IF THEY HAD THE SILVER.
Also, other than being a no0b, I noticed that the difference in price gain between SLV and PSLV brings their price moves for the last 5 days to be about in line with each other. PSLV fell harder since monday. So no, people haven't realized there's a difference is my guess.
Don't these assholes belong in jail?
There's no need for a pay raise when you can earn " squatter rent ". Bizarro economics.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-06/-squatter-rent-may-boost-spending-as-u-s-mortgage-holders-bail.html
lol
Wow.. i just called my primary dealer for silver in Downtown Manhattan... They aint got none! This is, in the three years I been dealing with them, the first time I ever heard the words 'out of stock' come out of the phone receiver while talking to them.
I'll tell you what, I haven' really seen any kind of shortage in my area. From what I can eyeball, my guy still has a few thousand ounces in his place and I see people (sheeple?) selling him new rounds, coins, and ingots every time I've been in there this week.
There is still a lot of silver to be had, at least for now. APMEX has tons of war nickels, 40%, and 90% junk. Also lots of bars. The Eagles will probably be the first to go "out of stock" then the Maples, then it will be a race to get all the other stuff-generic rounds, bars, junk silver etc. After that maybe a run on US nickels before they change the composition? So there's still tons of silver/copper/nickel/gold to grab, and still very cheap. It's just that the quality of silver available will probably diminish greatly by the end of 2011, and the premiums will go ever higher. Load up now, then go grab as many US nickels as you can for face value bitchez!
Can anyone enlighten me how to short Muni bonds?
Last few days should be a lesson for most of you.
Virtually any data point can be manipulated to goose stocks. And an unlimited supply of paper is always available to short at the COMEX and NYMEX to crush commodity speculators at will.
If you try to fight against Uncle Gorilla and his Infinite Fire Hose of Fiat, you will lose.
Isn't this one of those it's true until it's not type of things? I can't really speak to when it'll stop being true (if ever.) Any idea on if/when that'll happen?
Actually since 1998, those on the opposite side of the House of Fiat, have won HUGE 3x.
There will be a 4th. COUNT ON IT.
Funny how Goldman didn't mention the most positive jobs news for April. Didn't they remember that even Money McBags got a job?????????
Temp jobs deteriorated in the month of April quite significantly. While this may not seem like a big deal on the surface, temp jobs are a very good leading indicator to future hiring plans so the deterioration could indicates weaker future payrolls numbers: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks