Goldman's NFP Take: "Latest Job Readings Will Not Have An Immediate Affect On The Monetary Policy Outlook"

Tyler Durden's picture

Just out from Jan Hatzius

1. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 216k in March, more than generally expected. Growth over the past two months was revised up by 7k. The modest acceleration in employment came from faster growth in business services and fewer losses of state and local government jobs. We did not see much impact from better March weather: construction employment growth slipped to -1k from +37k previously, and leisure and hospitality employment growth decelerated (to +37k from +48k).

2. In the household survey, employment gained 291k, helping drive the unemployment rate down another tenth to 8.8% (8.828% unrounded). The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 64.2%, implying that the drop in the unemployment was due to job growth rather than departures from the labor force. Broader measures of unemployment also declined, with the U-6 measure reaching 15.7% (from 15.9% in February). The employment-to-population ratio rose to 58.5% from 58.4%.

3. There were a few modest weak spots in the report. First, average hourly earnings were unchanged for a second month. Second, the average work week failed to increase. Although this was expected by the consensus, worker hours remain below pre-recession levels and should be gradually rising over time. Third, the average duration of unemployment rose to a new high of 39.0 weeks (note that a methodological change at the start of this year lifted the mean duration of unemployment). Fourth, diffusion indexes reflecting the proportion of sectors with rising employment were generally soft.

4. Overall a healthy payroll report, but not a very large surprise relative to consensus expectations. In our view, the latest job readings will not have an immediate affect on the monetary policy outlook.

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El Hosel's picture

    Gee Wally,

  Its Goldilocks.... Just right, cook those books at a medium pace.

whatz that smell's picture

goldilocks, bitchez!

mission accomplished! keep the eyes on the Russell 2000 and the old print high of 856.48. god loves a pigman!

Mae Kadoodie's picture

goldilocks for the moment. however the Fed's walk in the forest will soon come to the QE fork in the road. hmm, which path to choose?

John Law Lives's picture

Why did TARP money go to keep the great vampire squid solvent?

Robslob's picture

Translation: Please hold your stocks while we dump them.

Cdad's picture

In our view, the latest job readings will not have an immediate affect on the monetary policy outlook.

Unless someone in the room next to where Duncan Niederauer takes his afternoon dump accidentally says, "Computer, end program."  And then....then you will see a wild-assed immediate affect on the monetary policy of the criminal syndicate known as Wall shhhhhhh.  That one last algorithm that is still buying in that co located room is, well, special.

Central Bankster's picture

Mission Accomplished.

slaughterer's picture

"In our view, the latest job readings will not have an immediate affect on the monetary policy outlook."

Interpretation = monetary policy outlook already changed radically last night as Ben was looking at this job readings.  We cannot control him any more as much as we would like.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea after losing 400,000 avg jobs weekly for 2 1/2 years, 130,000 jobs somewhere no one knows exactly where, surely signals mission accomplished.

Bryan's picture

Tyler, please fire your proofreader.

chinaguy's picture

Notice how the Birth/Death adjustment (the calculation of which appears to be proprietary) dropped the number exactly where they wanted it...not too hot, not too cold...

SheepDog-One's picture

'Lattes job readings' so all the new jobs are Starbucks barristas?

QQQBall's picture

"Everyone into the Pool"




The Vampire Squid

Catullus's picture

"because they did QE2 for no imaginable justification other than inflating stocks. Jobs really have no bearing on this anyway. Continue to BTFD."

Kina's picture

Message to BB. Keep digging that hole, were are almost to China.