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Goldman's Take On Greek Non-Expulsion News, And Record German Imports And Exports

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Last week we predicted that rumors of a Greek (self) expulsion are nothing but hot air, and an attempt to escalate so-far failing rhetoric at improving the economics of austerity. This was proven right, even as we also predicted, the EURUSD surprisingly remains sticky in the 1.438 area, meaning 120 pips in EURUSD was wiped out on purpose. Here is Goldman's take on this weekend's developments.

From Goldman's Dirk Schumacher

Policy makers discuss further help package for Greece. The head of the Euro group Juncker said after a meeting of finance ministers last Friday that "we believe that Greece will need a further program". According to FT Deutschland such a new program could include an extension of repayments of the loan provided under the first program as well as a reduction of the interest rate for these loans. Juncker also dismissed the idea that an exit of Greece from the Euro-zone was being discussed: "This is a stupid idea, it is not a direction we will ever embark on".

Newspaper Die Welt reports that the German government demands as a pre-condition for any further program that Greece will also negotiate a - voluntary - maturity extension with its private creditors.

The Troika of IMF, EU, and ECB will present middle of May their latest assessment on the implementation of the Greek adjustment program.

Metal processing industry plans to create some 80,000 additional jobs this year. The head of the metal sector employers association Gesamtmetall said in an interview over the weekend that the sector will add another 80,000 jobs until the end of the year. This is just the latest indication of the rude health of the German manufacturing sector, in particular when keeping in mind that average annual productivity growth is more than 3% for the sector.

German data releases today

Exports and imports surge in March. Exports (nominal, seasonally adjusted) rose by 7.4%mom after +2.8% while imports rose 3.0% after 4.1%. Exports and imports are both at their highest level ever, clearly surpassing now their pre-crisis peak. Net trade will contribute again strongly to growth in Q1:2011; we are forecasting GDP to be up 0.9%qoq in Q1.

 

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Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:11 | 1254847 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Elsewhere in Euroland, Irish 2yr debt over 12%.

But i thought they were fine after the injection!

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:16 | 1254854 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Irish Goby bond- and so on banks will suffer a similar haircut like Greek Debt

Between 50-70%

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:20 | 1254865 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Unlikely, according to ECB heads and the Greeks, but this would be my method of ending the clusterfuck if was a puppetmaster.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:17 | 1254856 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Seems that he's the only politician who has the balls to say things as he sees them and not bow down to the totalitarian and fraudulent EU-consensus.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:13 | 1254849 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Tell The German Banks why

 

Aareal Bank has lied in its NPL

 

Commerzbank is in default

 

Deutsche PostBank Greek Debt Exposure unsustainable

 

-German Bank has cooked their books in order to avoid a massive dillutive process.

 

*Germany is a sell, big sell.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:31 | 1254874 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And of course no one will investigate who paid the Spiegel to write such BS... In a society with laws, those behind that BS at der spiegel would be facing charges.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:42 | 1254896 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

lolmao

Those that have paid Der Spiegel, are the same that are running the Fed...and the scam financial market we are living in...

*US without exports strenght will have a severe hard landing next two years , specially in Munibonds and mismatch is Asset - Liabilities Performance.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 07:41 | 1254894 sangell
sangell's picture

I suspect the 'Troika' types who fashion these bailout/rescue packages forget that the EU has no restrictions on mobility. Thus what is likely to happen is, as these austerity measures and tax hikes begin to bite, those who can will flee. Why stay in Greece or Ireland if you can go elsewhere and escape the EU's plan?

The only people with an incentive to stay will be those on public payrolls or benefits.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 08:07 | 1254933 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The EU doesn't currently have restrictions on the free movement of persons.

The MENA immigration problem and the deadbeat debtor problem are driving States to seek a change to this.

The fact that there is no current legal mechanism to exit the EMU, leads to the current debate about whether EMU exit requires EU exit.  Creditor States won't allow swelling of their welfare roles with the migratory citizens of debtor States who default to the creditor States.

At this point it seems to me to be a chicken and egg conundrum as to which issue will be resolved first, but they cannot be separated and resolved separately.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 10:31 | 1255358 Bubbles the cat (not verified)
Bubbles the cat's picture

Wothu!?! You mean Greece ain't leavin the Euro!?! Well I'll be....

And German exports are at a record high (imports too but that's for another day....). Well I'll be.....

Has someone got their fingers in the till?

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 12:26 | 1255860 nauagos020
nauagos020's picture

 

hello i am Greek.

I am a real estate developer (with no loan obligation) and even now in the so called greek-crisis i am building 5 apartment buildings, 1 office building and 2 holiday-residence complexes.

PLEASE listen carefully what i have to say about Greece.

Greece is one of the poorest countries but the Greeks (as an average) are very wealthy.

I am not talking about wealth being happy, healthy and so on.

Greeks (as an average) own more real estate that any other,

They do not rely on lending as much as other eauropeans or americans

They have gold (especially english gold pounds) that no average european or american has

I am not saying they are good people or that they have a lot of exports i am just saying they are wealthy.

However the wealth they have you cannot find it anywhere because it is no declared anywhere.

My friend that works for 850 euros per month has 4 acres of land outside the city near the sea, 24 gold coins (worth 6000 euros) he got as a gift from his family on the day he was born 25 years ago, and his own apartment he bought with no loan for 230000 euros (i am not talking about what his family owns but what he owns). How can this happen? he gets his 850 euros, he has a second job (as a plumber-not declared) that gets him another 850 euros (where he pays no taxes-poor Greece), he has a farm in the 4 acres that gets him minimum 1000 euros (from selling produce) also not declared anywhere (so he pays no taxes-poor Greece) and some times (3 or 4 times per year) he earns another 2000 to 2500 euros doing part time jobs  (like waiting or plumbing in hotels in summer-not declared and tax-free ofcourse). So he gets 10200 from his day job thatbecause in Greece until 12000 income you pay no tax he is tax free and 25000 euros from the rest that are tax free. so with a clean income of 35000 spending less that 9000 per year (no rent or mortgage) say 10000 with his vacations (health insurance and so on have been discounted from his 1050 euros pay giving him 850 euros) he gets 25000 euros in his bank each year.

That is why greek people are rich but Greece as a country is poor. The example i gave you can happen in smaller numbers (however not vry often) but at the most of time can be really magnified in case we talk about doctors, lawyers and so on that make  with the same method (these are real - calculated numbers) 200000 euros at least but they declare 12000 geting away tax free.

sure there are poor people and rich people like any country, sure there are people loosing their homes to the banks like every country.

But as an average believe me

Greeks are wealthy.

So whether Greece leaves Eurozone or not, whether drachma comes back it doesnt really matter.

All that matters is that the Banksters (Rothchilds and the gang -imf fed central bank of Greece...all properties of the same families...Rothchilds and the gang) come and get Greece for a  fraction of what it really costs. It is happening and it will continue to happen and the Greeks will beg for it to happen so that they continue to have theur 25000 at their bank accounts each year because they do not care what happens to the railway stations, the ports, the energy/water companies. They may even give them free like we did with Meganisi Island that the Rothcilds bought to build homes for the super rich just a cople of months ago(they bought land with value 60 mil euros for 6 mil euros).

To sum up...

do not worry about the Greeks just worry about Greece (but why should you-Greeks don't) and wahtever you do always remember it does not matter what you feel or what you do you are not in control no one except a few, very very few people are and what they want will happen and you DO NOT  know what will hapen NOONE does. You just guess.

Mon, 05/09/2011 - 17:19 | 1256944 TK7936
TK7936's picture

"record German Imports And Exports"

How embarising. We really need to start acting more poor. Maybe if we pretend to not have any money our european friends will believe it.

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