Goldman's Team Jan 2010/2011 Economic Roadmap, Key Risks, And Rate Projections

Tyler Durden's picture

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Anonymous's picture

So.... the GS outlook in a nutshell..
no economic collapse...no dollar death...no hyperinflation...30% unemployment rate (tolerable, acceptable..the new social standard)...all's good.
Bonus coming. Check.

You starve in street
I drive Ferrari
It's okie dokie.

-BlarlesMbo

Cursive's picture

I refuse to read anything from GS.  I don't know if their using reverse psychology or reverse reverse psychology.

CoopDeluxe's picture

It's double secret reverse upside down psychology.  You need 3-D glasses to fully understand it.

Careless Whisper's picture

i think these reports are a complete waste of time.

Nolsgrad's picture

thanks for telling us you've got zip for investable assets

Careless Whisper's picture

OK dewd, that conviction buy list is really really good.

Mark McGoldrick's picture

"You need 3-D glasses to fully understand it."

 

Hilarious!  

 

Nolsgrad's picture

and yet you took the time to comment on this?

Careless Whisper's picture

and I took the time to post this story that has been swept under the rug. Glass falls from Goldman's new skyscraper headquarters at 200 West in Manhattan. Residents concerned for safety. Goldman's response: my bad. free hot chocolate.

Fusco said Goldman Sachs has offered to compensate Danischewsky for the lost revenue at the skating rink, as well as a local café owner who had planned to sell pastries and hot drinks at the rink on opening day. But given the frequency of the accidents at the company’s new headquarters, committee member Jeff Mihok said Goldman Sachs ought to be doing even more to support the neighborhood

link to story and video of Goldman managing director explaining that the safety of Goldman employees necessitates action.

http://www.tribecatrib.com/news/2009/december/429_tishman-glasscracked-two-weeks-before-falling-from-goldman-tower.html

 

 

SilverIsKing's picture

UPDATE:

 

BANK FAILURE FRIDAY (6 Total)

AmTrust Bank, Cleveland, OH - $2.0 billion

The Tattnall Bank, Reidsville, GA - $13.9 million

First Security National Bank, Norcross, GA - $30.1 million

The Buckhead Community Bank, Atlanta, GA - $241.4 million

Greater Atlantic Bank, Reston, VA - $35 million

Benchmark Bank, Aurora, IL - $64 million

TOTAL COST TO DIF = $2.4 billion

 

Pedro's picture

Thanks for the update Silver.  I was so distracted with all the job 10% celebration that I completely forgot about bank failure friday.  BTW, these are all on the east time zone, are there more to come on saturday for the the western 3/4's of the USA?

Pedro's picture

So, GDP from 3% in 4th qtr to 1.5% late 2010 as per the opening paragraph?  What about 1st, 2nd, 3rd quarters?  Are quarters 1 & 2 finally when we will have (when they will allow us to have) the correction?

order6102's picture

Fed mandate: price stability and maximum employment. GS is right. Fed on hold in 2010.. Asset price target (gold, SPX, falling USD, GS bonuses) is NOT Fed mandate... 

Good weekend reading (old but good) 

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/mishkin20070410a.htm

Anonymous's picture

here's a vid mash-up on Goldman Sachs on YouTube... even has the Duke make a surprise appearance..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6r60CRgJ1k
but here's another
where Old Boy of famous Korean movie takes
on Vampire Squid:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9yvSmSGjNg

Shiznit Diggity's picture

Very well reasoned forecast but any moron knows that ZimBen will keep hugging the zero bound at least through 2011.

Nolsgrad's picture

How about you guys come up with your own thoughts/outlook rather than the continual GS bashing

Y'all have great stuff but this continuous GS bashing is getting old

Anonymous's picture

You can never bash GS too much.

Anonymous's picture

My own thoughts would exclude Goldman Sucks and Lord Blankfein bashing and move right on up to assassination of ALL Goldman Sucks Big Jefes and dicksuckers, current and past.

You know, the usual suspects who bankrupted the entire global financial system, used AIPAC to donate trillions to political campaigns, and generally bought up all the financial real estate by direct violations like, ahem, alleged inside trading, bribery, quid pro quos, and the rest of the counterfeiting genre. Those like Bobby Joe Rubin (Chief Perp) Alan Greenspan, Dick Fuld, Larry "The Dork" Summers, Timmay Geithner, Benny bernokio, Henry Paulson, Peter and his bro Orszag, Gary Gensler, etc, ad nauseum.

Bashing is too too kind for these bastards. Off with their filthy heads.

Careless Whisper's picture

@Nolsgrad   go connect with the wilderness with your other NOLS buddies.

Goniff Sachs is a hedge fund.

Anonymous's picture

My oh my, what a well-oiled machine the global economy is - a terrific analysis assuming nothing of significance happens over the next 2 years. A good old-fashioned Luck Rally, that;s what we've got goin' here.

Anonymous's picture

Dollar doesn´t matter???
Tell that to Asian investors who buy u.s paper at 4% a year,.. while loosing 10-20 % against their own currency wich they pay their living expences with,... yes, yes,.I know,..Asians are stupid, locked in a catch 22,.(well until they decide they are better off cutting of their nose to save their face),. and surplus dollars can only be parked i Treasuries??,..NO, THEY CAN BUY, NOT JUST GOLD,..but food, for their starving population (that would be rual China,.hint,..ticking political unstability timebomb prevention),..and the Japs could buy commodities and build some more brigdes to everywhere!,..And when they decide to do something i.e spend the dollars on something usefull,...try then asking them for some more loans,..ups! rates on treasuries will need NASA assistance to retrieve.
Wake up average Joe,.
M. Copenhagen

Bob's picture

Fed funds rate at -5% is what they really should be getting?  Kudos to the banksters for doing so much with so little.  My heroes!

Anonymous's picture

they are wrong, job creation will be much stronger starting in Q1 than they are expecting - look at productivity surging and all the other labour market indicators - the FED will make its first hike in June 2010. For better economic forecasts, you might want to read the economists at SocGen.

mbasham's picture

This GS research is for their less than $1B clients and then for general distribution. Meantime, GS prop desk is positioned for FF rates higher than 1% by end of 2010 and it is one by one telling its bigger clients starting with largest assets to get positioned the same way. GS will instruct lapdogs Timmy and Benny to change policy once their favored clients are also ready for big bond losses.

ex ante's picture

just watch the 5YR note

Unscarred's picture

I think I know why you say that, but I would still like to hear your reasoning.

Thanks.

Miles Kendig's picture

GS joins DB in their insistence that the greatest threat to global stability rests in the prospect that they might not be able to enjoy negative real rates on the money they gamble with.

assumptionblindness's picture

"Genuine Risks....."?

1.  A much stronger economic recovery.

2.  Worries about a renewed asset bubble.

What about more bank failures, soverign defaults, FDIC insolvency (Oops!  Too late!), FHA/Fannie/Freddie collapse, failed Treasury auctions, CDS/IRS counterparty exposure (AKA systemic risk), and political/civil unrest (beyond teaparties).  At Goldman Sachs it would seem as if nothing can or could go wrong.  This is the same hubris that Bernanke is an expert in.  The willfull blindness to obvious (and significant) risk is the very reason why their conclusions are worthless.

The thing that this report reveals to me is that the Fed will continue talking but will absolutley NOT do anything about interest rates.  If the bond markets weren't being flooded with central bank money (or should I say "funny money") then the yeilds would be through the roof.  It is going to be VERY INTERESTING to see how this all ends.  It ain't gonna' end in an orderly manner, that's for sure! 

TraderVix's picture

Nothing really new or groundbreaking here. It's funny that even ZH has its own "sheeple".

harveywalbinger's picture

Beware false prophets

Technical pattern predict

Snake oil subterfuge

 

Anonymous's picture

Dear SilverisKing,

The FDIC had to give 6 of the purchasing banks loss share gaurentees on much of the assets. The 2.4 billion you quote is the best case figure. The actual cost will be delayed until later next year perhaps. You won't know about that cost incurred to the FDIC, just as we don't know what cost incursions the FDIC is having to make good on at this time from the past.

The FDIC does have a 600 billion free money lifeline from the FED but how long do you fathom that will hold?

Looking at the number of banks that must be shuttered I'm going to hazard they can close between another 200 to 400 banks before that's all gone. Of course, that's a WAY overly optimistic POV that only the mainstream media would actually try to sell to anybody. Banks are deteriorating fast and by the time the FDIC get's around to closing bank #100 (out of perhaps 3000 that will need shuttering?) they'll be in the red again.

Ok so let's say the fed keeps printing money and handing it to the FDIC to close banks...that's a form of QE after all.

Fact is that lately, whenever I stop to calculate a mental picture of 6 months from now in any particular category of the economic model...I arrive at the edge of an infinite cliff.

-MobBarley

Anonymous's picture

Wow...and these are the smartest guys in the room...it is truely a shame at how much confidence that most people in the world have lost in the financial casino the USA has now become...

"A common rule of thumb is that a 10% trade-weighted dollar depreciation raises the level of CPI by just ¼%."

Chopshop's picture

This is why JH gets paid the big bux ... transcribing a note like that into a blue-tooth while being driven to work.

All bs aside: this is a fantastic note to combat utterly childish sell-side anal-ysis such as BAC's gold to 1500 pos puff piece.

Thanks for sharing it wish us, TD.