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Gold/Silver Ratio: Silver Going Higher?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A topic we covered extensively in the past makes a second appearance, this time courtesy of Abigail Doolittle and The Weekly Peak, whose weekly musings focus on the much fabled ratio between the price of gold and silver. Some observations:

  • 323 B.C. – The ratio stood at 12.5 upon the death of Alexander the Great.
  • Roman Empire – The ratio was set at 12.
  • 12th to 17th Century – The ratio was around 12.
  • End of 19th Century – The nearly universal, fixed ratio of 15 came to a close with the end of the bi-metallism era and England’s attempt to demonetize silver and conceivably because the country had little of the precious metal.
  • 1980 – At the time of the last great surge in gold and silver, the ratio stood at 17.
  • 1991 – When silver hit its lows, the ratio peaked at 100.
  • 2003 - 2007 – This part of the bull market in silver caused the ratio to drop to 45 from 80.
  • 2008 – The ratio rose back to 80 on the Great Recession.

Much more in the full report below.

Gold/Silver Ratio: Silver Going Higher? (pdf)

 

 

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Sat, 11/20/2010 - 23:23 | 743789 honestann
honestann's picture

No, history does not tell a different story.  Tribes are abstractions.  Tribes are ideas/concepts in your head, not real physical entities/existents in the real world.  And therefore, tribes cannot "pick up a stone", "hurl a spear" or otherwise "fight".  Only the real, physical humans that you say are "part of those tribes" can "fight" or anything else.  And when history records that "tribes fight", they do not say --- but you should know full well --- that not every so-called "member" of those "tribes" did in fact fight.  Some hid.  Some ran away.  Some were sick or disabled.  Some were old and feeble.  Some were women not skilled or able to fight.  Some were childred too young to fight.  Some refused because they knew their "tribe" was in the wrong.  Some refused because they insisted on finding non-violent ways to avoid or end the fights... even after the fighting had started.

In fact, nothing has changed.  Lots of amercians refused to go kill "those gooks" in Vietnam, some because they considered "those gooks" just as human and worth of life as "us gringos", others because they considered "undeclared war is unconstitutional", others because they simply considered warfare to be inherently unjust except in self-defense.  And so forth.

The whole point is, it is invalid to lump those who refused to fight in Vietnam (or in any other battle, conflict or war in the history of mankind) with some arbitrary fiction.  Otherwise, how does your brain deal with "Japanese who fought in the US army against Japan in WW2", or "blacks who fought with the south in the civil war", or any number of other category-busting FACTs that exist throughout history?

Reality is 100% real, and 100% non-abstract.  An abstraction is a category, one kind of fiction.  If you understand what is an abstraction, and you always are careful to remember which ideas/concepts in your thinking process are and are-not abstractions, abstractions can be helpful.  They let us consider things that do not [yet] exist, and thus enable us to invent new things and processes that have not existed before.  However, most humans do not worry about the nature or difference between abstractions, fictions, real entities, and absolute BS.  And thus we live in a world of endless insane behavior.  To see further elaboration, see my other reply down just a ways from this one.

Mon, 11/22/2010 - 00:02 | 745507 delacroix
delacroix's picture

the sumerians say we were created, to mine gold, for the anunaki

Mon, 11/22/2010 - 04:34 | 745795 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

i read this a while back and kinda went-on-by...

i just read it again and laughed for 2 minutes. straight.

i'm not sure why.

cheers/tnx

Sat, 11/20/2010 - 23:13 | 743772 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

...work on your stereotypes...

Did you really say that?  You, who just stereotyped a whole segment of the population?

Lord amighty.  Ain't you the smart one.

Mon, 11/22/2010 - 15:31 | 747216 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

ug. i wish i could edit after-the-fact without making a mess of the thread.

above, i wrote "globally replace 'zionist' with 'greedy bastards' and ..."

i meant 'globally' in the text/replace sense (computer context).

as i re-read that, i see it could have been read with the *idea* that all 'zionist' = 'greedy-bastards', whereas the intention was to replace the *words*, which results in an entirely different interpretation. my hope was to get rid of the specific group reference and maintain the integrity of the thought.

when replacing the *words*/text:

 - 'zionists' are bad...

 - 'greedy-bastards' are bad...

please consider the intended difference, as i believe there are greedy bastards (and good folks) in every grouping of humans - gender/race/common interest/etc. i'm equally wary of all groupings. ("never underestimate the power of large numbers of stupid people" was a T-shirt i saw a few years back...)

it may have sparked an interesting chat, but apologies for my ambiguity. i now better-understand the perspective of the comment that immediately followed mine.

dam.

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:56 | 741907 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I have listened to Jim Rickards quite a bit and while I don't know if he's a zionist he does believe that religion is fundamental to civil society and is something that is lacking now...I could probably find the podcast where he says as much it was only a few months ago.  I don't agree with that but I still take his analysis of PMs and money seriously.  I don't know why you have a problem with citing someone that is right regardless of their religious beliefs.  It is more about the message than the messenger. 

Sat, 11/20/2010 - 07:35 | 742916 FreddyInBangkok
FreddyInBangkok's picture

something that is lacking now...

 

not enough Luciferianistics?

Sat, 11/20/2010 - 22:31 | 743705 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Hey dipshit Rickards and Price are far from Zionist shills.  Not even worth explaining myself to you.  Piss off! 

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 14:29 | 741660 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Buy silver, snitches!

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 14:33 | 741674 moregoldplease
moregoldplease's picture

Gold 1353.6 and silver 27. at the moment

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:03 | 741779 eblair
eblair's picture

Question for you guys.  I bought some silver rounds today that are just produced by the dealer.  They are cheaper than say Eagles and the dealer will actually buy them back at the same rate.  I guess he moves the rate from time to time, but not daily.  Probably more like monthly.  I can give you the site if you like.  Yep, zero spread.  My thinking was this.  I'm betting/hoping silver goes to the moon.  In that case, the money I save by not paying a premium for Eagles or Pandas or whatevers is better put into more actual bullion.  Comments?   Observations?  Thanks in advance. 

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:10 | 741800 PapiBow
PapiBow's picture

rounds are just bars with the same thickness, the thinner the bar the better is to check for authenticity. Coins, esp. American coins if to be used in the US, will ALWAYS be a much better choice because common people will recognize them and trust their authenticity, you will always have a problem with rounds and bars and you will have to sell them to a dealer with discount. American Eagles will preserve premiums because US Mint will probably discontinue them when silver goes much higher. The best deal for common folks are 90% old US coins

 

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:12 | 741804 eblair
eblair's picture

Well, this dealer will presumably buy them back at the same rate at which he sells them unless he decides to close up shop.

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:32 | 741858 PapiBow
PapiBow's picture

if this a reputable dealer with large volume then do not worry whether they buy back or not, better work on more fiat money and buy 90% old US silver coins

 

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 17:06 | 742100 eblair
eblair's picture

Notice, these guys have zero spread on their own coins.  They are in Malmo Sweden.

http://www.libertysilver.se/buy/liberty+silver+rounds

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:15 | 741817 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I just pay the premiums for Gold Eagles and Silver Eagles because they are more familiar here.

I do think that it does not matter very much as long as you can buy Au or Ag in any reasonable form.

You do have a good point that by saving the +/- $3.00 premium allows you to buy 6.5% more silver.

Sat, 11/20/2010 - 23:25 | 743785 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

If silver does perform well there will be counterfeits.  The Chinese are making some that the grading services have done double-takes over.  Even producing them in graded slabs that are counterfeit.   The premium for American Silver Eagles will be a pittance in the long run, and the recognition well worth the extra.  Junk silver is a good choice as well.  Get the common coinage like Washington quarters, Franklin halves, and Mercury (winged liberty) dimes.   We'll be back to paying a quarter for a loaf of bread in no time!

Handy links:

http://www.coinflation.com/

http://www.goldprice.org/ebay-gold-prices/

http://www.convert-me.com/en/

http://bullion.nwtmint.com/mybulliontracker.php

http://www.fisch.co.za/orderonline.htm#pricing

http://www.onlygold.com/TutorialPages/Coin_specsFulScreenVersion.htm

And, last but not least, start at the beginning!

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:04 | 741784 mraptor
mraptor's picture

http://www.dailypaul.com/node/144488

 

The new Financial Regulatory Reform law mandates that the Commission institute hard position limits in the derivatives trading of all commodities of finite supply; energies, metals and agricultural products.

...

The One Percent Solution

I propose that the Commission adopt a hard position limit in the contract equivalent amount of no more than one percent of the world annual production of any commodity of finite supply.

..

 

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:08 | 741796 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

PMs moving vert in unison.  Lookin' good!

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:20 | 741829 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

I can't buy silver.  I've got no more room for silver in my safe. Neither does my dad. We were buying several comex bars under $9 spot during the Great Ressesion. (Thanks JPM!) I did buy 5 oz of platinum on Monday though. I have to do something to help America and since I can't buy anymore silver I'll have to settle for platinum. I love helping my country.

Sat, 11/20/2010 - 04:22 | 742845 honestann
honestann's picture

Of course you know this, but you're not helping your country.  You're helping honest, ethical, productive individuals everywhere on earth.

Mon, 11/22/2010 - 00:07 | 745512 delacroix
delacroix's picture

buy another safe

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:42 | 741878 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Thought I'd stick a little market summary & forecast in here. You can, of course, find regular updates on my new blogspot page.

We all saw the gold and silver lows on Tuesday but we didn't get excited about calling a bottom until the re-test of overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. From there, both charts look great, silver in particular.

Silver has led Big Brother Gold for over 90 days now as troubles at the silver Comex have spilled over into the gold pits. Look for more of the same in the coming weeks. 

Next week brings option expiry on Tuesday which promises to be interesting. Absent some really bad, armageddon-type news, however, I seriously doubt that the EE will be able to get it going downward too signifiacntly. Maybe a push back down toward todays lows and from there 1340 but that should be it. Once Tuesday is over, we rally the rest of the holdiay-shortened week. Probably finish the week near that all-important 1370-75 level.

In silver, well, all bets are off due to the massive OI and ongoing delivery crisis. Look for an option expiry-related low down near 26.40 before closing next Friday near or above 28.

All of this sets us up for a big, big first week of December. $35,000,000,000 in new POMO that week virtually assures a big up week for the metals. I'd expect new contract highs that week in both silver and gold. Its going to be one helluva ride.

For more, don't forget about www.tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com.

Turd, out.

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:56 | 741905 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Thx for your great commentary Turd!

I do drop by your blog from time to time.  I'll be watching first week of December as well (although I may be frontrunning the planned bank withdrawals...).  

Best of luck!

Sat, 11/20/2010 - 23:34 | 743808 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Thanks!  You are bookmarked, just below this one:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:47 | 741892 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Eric Sprott on Kitco Radio Nov. 17:

"I think silver is going to be the investment of this decade."

http://www.kitco.com/ind/kitcoradio/

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:54 | 741901 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

Check out this post....I've noticed a spread of about $1.00 between the physical silver bars and the ETF's also, it seems that there out of stock, with more in after the end of the month.

 

http://displacedema.blogspot.com/2010/11/spread-between-physical-silver-and-etfs.html

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 15:56 | 741904 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

or Gold going lower?

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 16:27 | 742011 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

As silver and gold become monetary again,  35 (maybe +/-10) sounds like a reasonable ratio.

http://gold-silver.us/what_silver_gold_buys.html

 

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 17:21 | 742127 walküre
walküre's picture

Give the gift of SILVER this Christmas.

All your kids, grandkids, spouses, family and close friends.

DO NOT GO TO WALMART. Go directly to your local silver dealer!

Stop the nonsense of upgrading your useless electronic devices yet again. Stop purchasing useless plastic shit that kids will forget about the moment the Christmas music stops playing and dessert is being served.

Give SILVER.

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 17:55 | 742228 iota
iota's picture

I've now convinced 3/4 people to do just that in the last month.

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 17:56 | 742230 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I just purchased a 100 oz. Silver Engelhard Bars, At $1.50 over spot. Looking to add a bunch more.

Also 100 oz. Silver Johson Matthey bar for 1.60 over spot.

Sat, 11/20/2010 - 22:24 | 743694 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

You're an idiot to be paying what you're paying for silver and then going on ZH boasting about it.  Chump!

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 18:39 | 742328 CashCowEquity
CashCowEquity's picture

Damn you high rollers with your 100oz bars..im relegated to 1oz coins up to 10oz bars

:-/

lmao

Fri, 11/19/2010 - 20:28 | 742518 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Scotiabank refused to sell me some gold at 312 dollars an ounce today.

Sat, 11/20/2010 - 02:07 | 742770 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Monthly gold and silver charts are parabolic and I expect a substantial correction.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Sat, 11/20/2010 - 10:15 | 743015 done with them all
done with them all's picture

Silver as gifts is a perfect way to get people to remember what money actually is and  feels like. I am giving Silver Eagles this year as gifts, and even carry a couple in my pocket daily just for the good feelings it gives.

Sat, 11/20/2010 - 16:09 | 743362 jaro_g
jaro_g's picture

well, if silver becomes monetary metal again, we will see the historical gold-silver rates again i think ... 12 : 1 (or 16 : 1 as the geological ratio on earth?)

Sat, 11/20/2010 - 23:21 | 743790 MOAB
MOAB's picture

I bought gold and silver (platinums my favourite) but once I felt comfortable that I had enough Au (90oz) its been all Ag since then. trying to get my clueless father to buy metal and i tell him to buy only silver. with the ratio still around 50:1 (probably not by next week) a purchase of silver is the same as buying REALLY cheap gold cause you will be able to swap it for shitloads more gold later (if you want).

and in reference to the ratio and where its heading, i would be surprised if it even slows down before 20:1. Guess it depends on whether the public (small money) wakes up before "professional" money managers (big money). check out david morgans stuff on youtube re: silver

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

http://jsmineset.com/

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html

http://www.gata.org/ - for humour, cause its fun watching the GATA guys get their own back on the bankers and crooks.

Im just waiting to watch the fireworks from GLD, SLV fraud being discovered en masse. got a ringside seat and a flipdown heatshield.

Mon, 11/22/2010 - 07:09 | 745876 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Hmmmm ... a very interesting observation from a commenter on Max Keiser's blog:

End of August 2010, JP Morgan announces to its traders that it is closing proprietary commodities trading desk (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-31/jpmorgan-said-to-close-prop-trading-desk-to-meet-volcker-rule.html).

 

What happens to the silver market?

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!