Gonzalo Lira vs Rick Ackerman: "Slicing Up" The Logic Behind The No-Hyperinflation Argument

Tyler Durden's picture

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I Am Ben's picture

Hyper-what now?

Hard1's picture

-All that glitters is not gold.

-Gold glitters

Therefore gold is not gold

(Is that a sound argument Gonzalo?)

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

"All that glitters is not gold," means that not all glittering things are gold. It does not mean that nothing that glitters is gold as you seem to interpret the statement.

Hard1's picture

Dude... you seriously need to lighten up. I obvoulsly understand the sophism in my argument, you don't seem to understand something that us humans call a joke. Or did you really think that I just convinced myself through logical steps that something is not itself?  You can stop scanning the news and go back to trading Mr. Algo.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Elaine - Well you don't have to dissect if you can just tell me why this is suppose to be funny?

Mr. Elinoff - Ha! It's merely a commentary on contemporary mores.

Elaine - But what is the comment.

Mr. Elinoff - It's a slice of life.

Elaine - No it isn't.

Mr. Elinoff - Pun?

Elaine - I don't think so.

Mr Elinoff - Vorshtein?

Elaine - That's not a word. You have no idea what this means do you?

Mr Elinoff - No.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_4M1Tz_SdM

Hard1's picture

(deleted double post)

sdmjake's picture

"In a social democracy with a fiat currency,
all roads lead to inflation."

 —Bill Fleckenstein

falak pema's picture

then to monetary over-dissipation which leads inevitably to deflation... as we saw with John Law...

Pladizow's picture

"There will come a time when a person who finds a penny in the street, wonders whether it was a dime when someone dropped it." - James Dines.

financeguru500's picture

You know what's funny?

Many people in the U.S. don't even realize how much control we have over things like the price of oil. If you even mention that people should consider being responsible about their personal fuel usage they quickly reply back how it's their God given right to use however much fuel they feel like using.

Consider this for a moment. If every driver in the U.S. could cut their gasoline usage by 1/3rd each day, we could cut U.S. oil consumption by 3 million barrels. That would be enough of a cut to start bringing the price of oil back down. Considering the U.S. consumes around 18-19 million barrels of oil each day and world oil production is around 80 million barrels per day 3 million barrels is a lot. Roughly 4% of world oil production. If every driver ocould cut fuel usage by half each day it would be roughly 4.5 million barrels or almost 6% of world oil production. Imagine if all the sudden there were an extra 4.5 million barrels of supply sitting around each day. That is a huge amount of oil and the price of oil would plummet. We could see $1.50 gasoline again.

The impact that the U.S. citizens have is tremendous. We are the largest consumer of oil in the world and we have the chance to change prices for ourselves. Rather than trying to hold politicians accountable we need to hold ourselves accountable. This bull crap about God given rights to consume as much as possible will result in unaffordable gas pretty soon.

I know no one will care about what I say and there is no way to change the U.S. citizens to think about things like this. But I just wanted to bring up that it is under our control and we can make a difference.

I Am Ben's picture

 

All is under control. Carry on.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

FOFOA just picked apart Ackerman too at his latest post.

fofoa.blogspot.com

Heavy's picture

He did more than pick him apart, he wrote something highly educational which everyone reading this should read immediately.  I sent it to everyone I know as soon as I was halfway in.  Very to the point and a very sharp point at that.

Arthor Bearing's picture

You are entirely correct. I only reply to emphasize one thing you said, that it's time to stop trying to hold our politicians accountable. They're not accountable. We cannot count on political solutions, nor should they even be attempted at this point. It's up to us as individuals to try to structure our lives in a sustainable and responsible way. The politicians and most people will stand in our way for a long time but once they begin to understand how high the stakes are everyone will figure out ways to drive less (e.g. bring jobs back to local communities to end the commute) and consume less (backyard gardens in suburbs, for one thing). I'm gonna spoil the ending: good wins out over evil.

NotApplicable's picture

Amen! Politics (and political "solutions") are evil. The only solution for us (as individuals) is to stop feeding the beast with our support.

I'm going to unspoil your ending: there is no end, but rather a constant vigilance to be maintained (in the form of education) to ensure evil is not given free reign by becoming yet again empowered via an institution of control.

Freedom is the answer! Now what was the question?

Abitdodgie's picture

Every year in the western world 4-5 million drivers get of the road , however in the developing nations ,China, India, etc 40 million drivers take to the road per year , so it is of little consequence what the western world does now .

Flakmeister's picture

All fine and dandy.... price goes down and people say, hey I can drive more because it is cheaper...  Do you still write letters to Santa?

Arthor Bearing's picture

But once prices rise people will find ways to get along without it. I don't usually recommend drugs for people's problems but you might benefit from Valium

Flakmeister's picture

Naw... am partial to cannibis though.

We will see how America deals with $6 then $10 gas.... The kicker is that any demand destruction here is more than compensated by increased demand elsewhere. The US no longer drives global oil demand...

Arthor Bearing's picture

"partial to cannibus" that makes two of us mein freund 

Heavy's picture

You know what pitchforks are good for right?  (other than improving governance by improving governments) ...Pitching weed into the new American economy by the shovel full!  Selling pitchforks here!!!  (for silver)(not selling weed because the price is set to drop (relative to silver), can I somehow short weed...never mind that does not seem ethical...)

Pladizow's picture

Yeah, and IF my aunt had nuts she'd be my uncle.

Flakmeister's picture

If your uncle had that rack, I'd wish he were my mother...

Banjo's picture

I assume by "we" cut our consumption by 1/3rd each day, you mean "we" the people.

I would be intrested in breaking down how much oil is used by

  • Industry
  • Government including Military
  • Private i.e. "we" the people.

In the private section can you find the spectrum of people in the 20% that control 80% of the nations income and wealth and contrast their fuel consumption against the remainder of the population the 80% or roughly 240 million people that control 1/5th of the nations wealth.

Then run fuel and oil reduction numbers.

I am guessing that most of these lower income and asset holding American citizens take less vacations (especially involving airline travel) and they probably don't spend and extra 30% of fuel driving for the sake of driving after all you do have to get to work to pay the bills, I would guess they have less fuel consuming toys like, boats, jets, sports cars etc..

It would be an interesting data series to filter out and examine.

 

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yesterday here at ZH there was an article that had a pie chart showing that the bottom 80% held only 7% of the nation's wealth.

The top 1% held something 40% plus.

Anytime something like this that is so much more extreme than the ubiquitous 80 / 20 rule is a sign of trouble ahead.

Huskybritches's picture

How would one go about cutting fuel consumption by 1/3 if all you do is drive to and from work every day?  Would you park your car on the side of the road when you're 2/3 of the way to your destination?  Furthermore, how would one cut it by half?  Would you drive to work and walk home, then the next day walk to work and then drive home?

Manthong's picture

Hedge your bets.. Hyper-Stagflation.

Best protection is a diversified portfolio; Ag, Au and Pb.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ $39

+ $1450

+ 9 mm

+ 7.56 x 39

HK's picture

I saw the chart yesterday and meant to comment.  Let's say those are dollars instead of marks.  In Jan 1921, gold was at $1349, similar to today.  Less than 3 years later, it was at $87 trillion dollars.  Imagine that, we'd all be rich!  (sarc/off)

 

Yes, I understand that the ounce of gold would buy a nice suit in either case, but can you even fathom the surrealness of that sort of situation?  I mean, what comes after a trillion, because 12 ounces would get you there.

Banjo's picture

The thing is if you have gold you have a "real" store of value.

You may or may not be rich it depends on what you can "exchange" it for.

There is the story of a German bellhop and this may be pure BS however it was crazy times and people were desperate.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/morgan120800.html

The combined money supply rose from 12 billion marks to 63 billion marks during the war. Prior to the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany a bellhop was given a gold coin as a tip. He saved this coin (Gersham's law) and continued about his business. During the worst of the hyperinflation this same bellhop bought the entire hotel at which he was once employed, for that same gold coin he had saved earlier.

goldsaver's picture

+ 7.56 x 39

DoChen... did you mean 7.62 x 39? Unless you are into some serious handloading and bullet casting.

disabledvet's picture

"Cats and dogs living together.  TOTAL CHAOS!  But you Lenny..you could be saving the lives of a MILLION REGISTERED VOTERS."

"Get that guy outta here."

Pladizow's picture

Wher u bin, Lira?

falak pema's picture

he can be excused...he's been looking at your boobs too long!

jswede's picture

you're.  so.  freaking.  wrong.

promise to come back here by the end of the year -- after all, you guaranteed hyperinflation in America by the end of 2011.

Popo's picture

I hope Lira likes the taste of crow.

MachoMan's picture

I asked him to make a falsifiable hypothesis and here she is:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-hyperinflation-part-ii-what-...

Methinks MushyMan has lain down the gauntlet? I doth think he has!

 

I already said what I think will happen, but I have no problem saying it again: A Treasury bust and subsequent run to commodities, sparking hyperinflation, before the end of 2011—but very possibly this coming Fall. 

 

See, I got balls and a big ol' cock-ring wider than a silver dollar, and have no problem showing them off. 

 

Any questions?

 

GL

 

pazmaker's picture

Thanks Machoman.  One must be accountable for their words.

goldsaver's picture

You do realize that there are 9 more months this year.... right? Claiming victory the first inning is not wise grasshopper

Metropolis_Minx's picture

Last time I looked, it was only April of 2011. Lira has months to be right or wrong.

LawsofPhysics's picture

This "flation" debate goes nowhere.  All that matters is buying power.  Some will have it and some won't.  It does not matter if we are talking about individuals or companies.  What is coming is beyond both inflation and deflation.

 

hedge accordingly.

Heavy's picture

Try taking out "buying"...in order to shorten to "power".  And, after some additional improvements, we have:

"The 'flation' debate only leads us to views of the void.  All that matters is power.  Some will have it some will not.  Individuals, corporations, bankers, IMF, BIS... all, in the end, are held in the firm grip of physics.  What is coming is beyond any of us.

Act accordingly..."

 

There...that should be pretty junk proof... :-)

In the long term, Power=Energy=Electric&Oil  Have a nice day.

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

not sure who is right. therefore i buy silver. thus all silver is right. or something like that.

hannah's picture

who cares if we have hyperinflation for a month and then a depression for 100 years....i call that a depression.....we cant have hyperinflation for a long period of time. oil goes to $200 and we crash into a depression.

i dont get what the arguement is...?

 

spiral_eyes's picture

you can very easily have a hyperinflationary depression. what counts is the quantity of money weighed against goods and productivity. keynes' dogma will keep the fed pumping and dumping through a depression to "raise aggregate demand".

hannah's picture

you didnt 'say anything'...? printing money doesnt raise demand...that is stupid. we have record suppies of oil yet oil is up in price because of speculation...not supply and demand. you cant bump up demand with money printing.