Good morning, worker drones: This Week in Mayhem

Good morning, worker drones: This Week in Mayhem
by Project Mayhem

Project Mayhem reviews the most important financial and geopolitical news of the past week and takes a look at the week ahead.

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LAST WEEK IN MAYHEM

Economic:

1) SEC report finds no internal corruption in Madoff scandal, despite near zero money being recovered. Zerohedge calls in the roflcopters in response to this pathetic SEC whitewash.

This was our reaction upon reading the SEC's bullshit report

"SEC inspector general David Kotz's report found no evidence of any improper ties between agency officials and Madoff"  
http://www.mainstreet.com/article/moneyinvesting/news/sec-madoff-oops-our-bad?cm_ven=msunited

Status: Fail.  Level: Epic.

Bob Chapman writes:
"The Inspector General has found the SEC incompetent, but not corrupt. We disagree - the SEC is corrupt, particularly in the Madoff scam. The current SEC Madoff probe is another scam. Money has yet to be found in any substantial amounts. The Fed, the NY fed and the Treasury know where all the money went and that is to offshore havens and Israel. That means high-ranking members of the SEC were in on it. We have not heard the end of this yet, and the results will be shocking."

http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=15076

Attorney Representing Amerivet Securities Makes Claim FINRA Insider Confirms Investment in Madoff
"There were a few bombshells that came out of our discussion, including a claim by Mr. Greenfield, the Amerivet Securities attorney, that somebody well-placed within the organization (FINRA) that told us, in no uncertain terms, there was an investment with Madoff."

"Did we just find the smoking gun which indicates that FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) actually invested in the Madoff Ponzi scheme?"
http://www.senseoncents.com/2009/09/attorney-representing-amerivet-securities-makes-claim-finra-insider-confirms-investment-in-madoff/

If you have not watched Harry Markopolos' testimony before Congress on SEC and FINRA corruption, we highly recommend you watch it in its entirety. To be honest it is rather sick the SEC can get away with issuing a report which is obviously lies.

An American hero tells us the goddamned truth for once

[markopolos video]
part1: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2001237832838852193
part2: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7042347976248432607

2) U-6 'real' unemployment skyrockets to a 26-year high of 16.8%

[u6 image]

This is what recovery looks like

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/real-unemployment-rate-hits-168

3) Gold-To-Dollar ratio reaches July 2008 levels; Hong Kong calls gold back home; Project Mayhem secretly defects to the gold bugs.

PM issues gold price target of $1200 or higher for Jan 2010; prepares to lol @ Prechter. 

Jim Willie writes:
"The Chicago trading pits integrate much more brain wattage than the NYSE floor, and far less bias based in crippling propaganda. The wisdom that emerged from Chicago pointed to the gold price rise as a result of two important factors that seem SPOT ON. Chicago buzz centers upon the perceived Chinese demand for gold, both at the official government level (sovereign wealth funds) and the popular street level (retail coin & bar buyers). The other buzz centers upon what could mushroom as one of the biggest stories to date, as it matures and develops. It is difficult even to describe accurately this factor. The Chinese announced they will permit their state-owned firms to dishonor elements of futures derivative contracts, and thus limit their losses, on a selective contract basis."
in Gold: Separation before Liftoff

Tyler writes on the ancient metal of kings
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-dollar-ratio-back-july-2008-levels-surging-au-collapsing-usd

Gold and Systemic Crisis
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-and-systemic-crisis

4) Insider Selling/Buying Ratio Doubles to 61.8x

" TrimTabs earlier disclosed that the ratio of insider selling to buying had averaged about 31x for August, with $6.3 billion of insider sales matched by only $210 million on insider buys. Insiders apparently decided to exit August with a bang, with the last week of insider transactions doubling the sell-to-buy ratio to 61.8x! Over half a billion in stock was sold, while a whopping $8 million was purchased."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-sellingbuying-ratio-doubles-618x

5) This Week In Mayhem Issues Congressman Pete Stark "Idiot of the Century" award

Pete Stark, brain damaged Congress Critter extraordinaire, makes the claim that debt is wealth before telling a reporter to "get the fuck out". Maybe this helps explain the garbage coming out of Washington DC.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/congressman-pete-stark-explains-leverage-tells-reporter-get-fuck-out

6) Dennis Kneale continues to be paid by CNBS to promote vile economic tripe (Kneale you may need to look up these words; remember v comes after t, mkay?). Denninger responds -- and nails the fail whale to the rail. Must watch.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1406-Kneale-Abuse.html

7) China agrees to buy $50bn in SDR bonds
"The International Monetary Fund(IMF) said on Wednesday that China has agreed to buy the first bonds issued by the agency for about 50 billion dollars." "According to the agreement, China would purchase up to 32 billion (around 50 billion dollars) SDR, or Special Drawing Rights, in IMF notes."

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90883/6746736.html

8) S&P P/E ratio is at 127.43. Nope that's not a typo. Hail mary, full of grace...

Mean-reversion is gonna be a bitch!

And here is the spreadsheet in case you can't believe your eyes, supposing you have a labor day hangover or whatever...
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS

Geopolitics:

1) CDC Forced Quarantine Docs Leak

FL Quarantine to Detention Facility Order Apr 09 252

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cdc-h1n1-forced-quarantine-docs-leak

H1N1 Swine Flu Pandemic: Iowa Contemplates "Forced Confinement" in a "Quarantine Facility"
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=15064

2) US Rules Out Negotiations With New Japan Govt on Base Deal 

"Japan's incoming Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has called for a review of the bases agreement, as well as a broader review of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States and the complete closure of the Okinawa base. The party has also promised to end the Japanese military's role in the Afghan War by the end of the year."

http://news.antiwar.com/2009/09/01/us-rules-out-negotiations-with-new-japan-govt-on-base-deal/

3) Georgia/Abkhazia-Russia naval blockade row escalates again

As was predicted in last week's column, the Georgia row has escalated further. MSM is still MIA. We suppose they will only report on this if and when carnage begins. You can be assured if this occurs, some percentage of Americans will confuse Georgia the country with Georgia the US state.
 
[saakashvilli image eating tie]

Saakashvilli, mentally unstable President of Georgia, eats his tie for the cameras.

Abkhaz rebels threaten to destroy Georgian ships
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=106037

[georgia image]

Abkhazia threatens Georgian ships as possibility of Black Sea naval skirmish rises
Mike Rivero notes:  Sergey Bagapsh would not be making these threats without the implicit backing of Moscow.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/6127798/Abkhazia-threatens-Georgian-ships-as-possibility-of-Black-Sea-naval-skirmish-rises.html

Russia condemns Georgia's attempts to seize ships off Abkhazia
"The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday Georgia's attempts to seize ships off the Abkhazian coast could lead to new armed conflicts."
"Aside from interrupting international maritime shipping, these actions of the Georgian leadership are an attempt to impose a blockade of the Abkhazian coast, which could lead to the deterioration of the situation in the region and new military conflicts," the Foreign Ministry's spokesman Andrei Nesterenko told a news conference in Moscow.
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090903/156011368.html

Russia warns Georgia against Abkhaz 'sea blockade'
"A Russian official has warned Georgia that attempts to block ships from reaching a Moscow-aligned separatist region of Georgia could end in military intervention."
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hMwNwByhP9L89m6jkmQOXgM6etqQD9AFRT503

4) This week in Mayhem nails it -- Arctic Sea was likely carrying stolen weapons

The individual who originally disclosed that the Russian vessel Arctic Sea was likely carrying weapons rather than Finnish timber receives death threats and is forced to leave Russia.

[picture of ship route]

Russia ship mystery editor flees
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8235647.stm

Let's hope he does not receive a gift of Polonium-210 in his drink like Alexander Litvinenko.

5) Gates requests more troops for Craptakistan; dead soldier photograph leaks; 90 killed in NATO strike

Aug. 14, Lance Cpl. Joshua Bernard is tended to by fellow U.S. Marines after being hit by a rocket propelled grenade during a firefight against the Taliban in the village of Dahaneh

http://wearestjohns.com/ap-photo-of-lance-cpl-joshua-bernard.html

The United States now has more troops in Afghanistan than the Soviets ever did. ED NOTE: Let me let you in on a little secret: This war is about Caspian energy reserves and protecting the drug trade.
http://www.alternet.org/world/142388/obama_is_leading_the_u.s._into_a_hellish_quagmire/

US commander's report paves way for military escalation in Afghanistan
"The commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, has issued a dire assessment of the state of military operations there. The classified report sets the stage for an expansion of US troop levels in Afghanistan by as many as 45,000."
http://uruknet.com/?p=m57567&hd=&size=1&l=e

90 killed as NATO hits Afghan fuel trucks

"On August 22nd, a US air strike killed 90 Afghan civilians, mostly women and children, according to on-the-ground reports. The US has vehemently denied that claim saying instead that 30-35 Taliban militants were killed and only 4-5 civilians. After mobile phone video footage contradicted those claims, the US now plans to open a joint investigation along with the Afghan government into the incident. "

http://uprisingradio.org/home/?p=3226
http://rawstory.com/news/afp/About_90_killed_as_NATO_hits_Afghan_09042009.html

6) Iraq-Syria Row Escalates. Keep in mind Syria is aligned with Russia, who is renovating a deepwater port in Tartus on the Mediterranean Sea.

[syria tartus image]

Maliki Points Finger at Syrian Government for Baghdad Bombings
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki today formally asked the United Nations Security Council to launch an inquiry into last month's Baghdad bombings, and in particular into 'outside forces' who supported the attacks, an obvious reference to its publicly broadcast confessions implicating Syria in the attack.
http://news.antiwar.com/2009/09/03/maliki-calls-for-un-inquiry-into-baghdad-bombings/

[syria map]

 
Iraq Masses Security Forces Along Syria Border as Tensions Mount
"Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has ordered thousands of additional national police deployed to the border with Syria, saying it was needed to prevent insurgents from infiltrating into the nation. Tensions between Iraq and Syria have been rising in recent weeks as Iraq has sought to implicated Syria in last month's major Baghdad suicide bombings."

http://news.antiwar.com/2009/09/04/iraq-masses-security-forces-along-syria-border-as-tensions-mount/

7) Man leaps into river to escape wife's nagging

A man jumped into a fast-flowing river because he couldn't take his wife's nagging anymore.

Members of the ship's crew saw the man suddenly run out of his cabin with his hands covering his ears, and shouting: "I can't stand it any longer."

ED NOTE:  This sound like my ex-girlfriend. Eva is that you??

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25912783-5013016,00.html

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THIS WEEK IN MAYHEM

Economic:

1) Watch gold; particularly how it behaves during any sort of systemic deleveraging. PM forecasts a breakout above $1000 but with worst-case possibility of short-term decline to $800-850 during an equity crash. End-of-year forecast is $1200 or higher. And we will definitely get an equity crash. The only question is when.

Chart from Dr. Jim Willie's latest article

2) Weekly calender.  Rather uneventful.

It's mostly foreign news this week, except for Jobless Claims on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment / Treasury Budget on Friday.

source: cmegroup.com

Geopolitics:

1) Russia/Georgia and Af-pak: both these continue to destabilize. Hopefully we can remove them from our watch list soon, but that may be an opimistic assessment, particularly for Af-pak.

2) The Iraq-Syria row is slowly heating up. Remember these countries share a large porous border. There may be something to this or it may be more hot air. ZH eyes are open.

3) H1N1 spread. Governments may use this as a pretext for expanding control. Don't fall for the lies, because there is plenty of that these days.

In summary: We're all f*cked, it's getting worse, have a great weekend!

P.S.
Oh and if you are wondering what our fearless leaders are doing lately -- well let's have a look at Connecticut, shall we?  I have your answer!

House Minority Leader Lawrence F. Cafero Jr., R-Norwalk, far right, speaks while colleagues play solitaire on their computers as the House convenes to vote on a new budget for the fiscal year in the Capitol, in Hartford, Conn., Monday, Aug., 31, 2009.

Comments

[AnonymousMonetarist]

Good Morning Mr. <deleted >

More context for     S&P P/E ratio is at 127.43.

' a P/E ratio of 133.9 with the index down 34% from its October 2007 all-time high can't be taken seriously.As these examples illustrate, in times of critical importance, the conventional P/E ratio often lags the index to the point of being useless as a value indicator... based on the latest 10-year earnings average, to reach a P/E10 in the high single digits would require an S&P 500 price decline below 600'

http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2009/09/mr-valentine-has-set-price.html

Also

Concerning possible flashpoint : if China Anstalt Syndrome strikes, one must consider,

'Beijing is likely to expedite the process of unification with Taiwan and possibly try to achieve the goal by 2012, an expert attending a cross-strait forum said yesterday. Lai I-chung, an executive member of the pro-localization Taiwan Thinktank and former director of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) International Affairs Department, said that 2012 is a year important to Taiwan’s survival.If Beijing’s economy continues to deteriorate, its leaders are likely to adopt drastic measures to divert public attention, Lai said. '

http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2008/12/yuan-watch-2012-unifiication.html

By the way <deleted> says thanks for the pie.

[TumblingDice]

Well done and muy interesante Senor Mayhem.

I could barely get through the whole report because you have three 3's leaving me utterly confused. Pretending that a new list was being started at 5 eased my mind and allowed me to keep reading but I am still recovering.

In terms of under the radar geopolitical developments, this site http://www.enterprisecorruption.com/ (I do not usually frequent the site but it does contain some gems from time to time) captured some interesting coincidences concerning the North Korean hostage negotiations and the arms trade of N with Iran. Basically the escapades of the ANL Australia needs investigation, it left North Korea with a shipment of weapons on July 25th apparently being monitored the whole way by the US, on August 4th Bill Clinton conducted his "negotiation" for hostages and now we see a seizure of the ship. Curious to say the least.

The Syria and Iraq thing is very puzzling. It could be just huge dance-off on the border but it could also be something more, definitely needs to be watched.

Denninger has a great new rant/article about the pesky mathematical impossibility of solving this debt situation with more debt. Well deserving of a read as he crunches a few numbers and exposes the current policies for the inevitable failure that they are.

[Project Mayhem]

hah, thanks. pardon my numbering I am composing on a netbook.  corrected.

[Frank Owen]

Don't know if you've ever heard the song 'worker bees" by Billy Talent.. I think you might appreciate the lyrics....March on, worker bees!
Know your enemy!

We take our orders given by the queen
We're not the killers, we're the worker bees
If you resist us you will feel our sting
Surrender now before the swarm sets in

Protect the hive from enemies!
Protect the hive from enemies!
Follow the herd mentality!
Can we fight to save our souls?

March on, worker bees!
Know your enemy!

A pollination coming from the west,
And in a flash we will invade your nest
Supply of honey flowing bottomless                   <---------------- hilarious
Play by our rules or you'll be powerless

Protect the hive from enemies!
Protect the hive from enemies!
Follow the herd mentality!
Can we fight to save our souls?
And we'll march... along, with our blindfolds on
And we'll ride... the rails, with our pistols drawn
Can the Lord... above, forgive what we've done?
Can we fight to save ourselves?

And we'll march... along, with our blindfolds on
And we'll ride... the rails, with our pistols drawn
Can the Lord... above, forgive what we've done?
Can we fight to save ourselves?

Can we fight to save ourselves?
Will we die to save our home?

[Anonymous]

Interestingly all the bees of the hive (strange since they live only about 6 weeks each), know their keeper. Indeed, if the keeper die, an old wive's tale goes, you must "inform" the bees or they will die of grief or abscond. I place an old, well used garment over the hive in the spring, and then, noticeably, no matter my location, the bees will come, when necessary, to inform me of some need. They take pains to fly hard into me without a sting.
They need either greater space, better cover or shade, better water source, or protection from predator. My german ancestors have raised them for probably a millenia.
They attack or sting only when the hive is forceably invaded or if many workers are killed by sloppiness.
Swarms will never attack and sting until a hive is established. They permit drones to sup endlessly at the honey stores until the breeding season ceases or winter approaches. Then they are cast out to die. They have primitive but effective communication to specialize in the gathering of pollen, honey, resins. They know honey supply is limited and push themselves hardest when the nectar flows most freely, fielding workers in ebb and flow with nature's supply.
They aren't immune to corruption. It is their greatest flaw. If unguarded or dead hive be close, they will cease gathering and commence thieving raw honey until it all be gone, but in the process lose their capacity to do the required field work, and the abundance is quickly consumed, and the hive dies. Must never disincent them with the freebie, subsidy, easy candy. Must make provision for their larger needs, allow their nature to work, stand aside and take only a small percentage of the store for your pains. Greater than 30% honey cull and you kill them over their winter's hibernation.
Great beekeepers have healthy crops, healthy hives, a wealth of honey.

Poor beekeepers have a good year and none thereafter.
The USA lost its apiarist skills, its bees have gone rogue.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_That_Corrupted_Hadleyburg

[Anonymous]

amazing metaphor & practical tidbits all rolled up into 1.

wonderful comment, thank you.

[MinnesotaNice]

sorry... that repeat thing just takes on a life of its own :(

[MinnesotaNice]

sorry...

[MinnesotaNice]

will someone explain to me how you can get 6 duplicate entries like this... sorry...

[MinnesotaNice]

Super interesting...

[MinnesotaNice]

Super interesting...

[MinnesotaNice]

Super interesting...

[Frank Owen]

I appreciate the bee allegory... but the bees would have been fine without relying on the keeper in the first place. Of course, the queen would have been bred for that purpose and sent out through the mail system in a little box to the keeper (owner). It is the keeper who receives the benefit, and the bees become submissive to the keeper instead of the queen (one of their own) who has their own best interests at heart. I like Clemens, but has the ideal Hadleyburg ever really existed? can it? Thanks for the thought provoking reply.

[Anonymous]

Wow. Thank you. I am continually amazed at the intelligence of our fellow creatures.

[AN0NYM0US]

some perspective on S&P PE ration from dShort

TTM P/E ratio = 133.9 (Aug 31 close)
P/E10 ratio = 18.3

http://dshort.com/articles/2009/SP-Composite-pe-ratios.html

also great article from Tim Knight posted at his site a short while ago

The True Middle Class

http://slopeofhope.com/2009/09/the-true-middle-class.html

[MsCreant]

I see you debagging. Just sayin'.

[Ned Zeppelin]

I like my tie with fava beans, and a nice claret.

[spanish inquisition]

Interesting editorial on Japan.

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/perspectives/news/20090905p2a00m0na001000c.html

[straightershooter]

With the DPJ taking over the power, Japan is no longer the puppy of the US.

With the Obama taking over the power, USA was no longer the puppy of the Israel.

Get used to it.

[TumblingDice]

The dollar index is what this ratio is comprised of, not dollars. The dollar index is determined by the dollars strength against other currencies. As far as I can tell this ratio does well for spotting the divergence of gold from paper currency.

For example if the DXY satys at 78 and gold rises to $2000 the ratio would syrocket and it would indicate that the dollar is not losing ground against any other currency except for gold. The ratio helps measure whether the strength in gold is due to dollar weakness or if it due to the loss in confidence in fiat money overall.

[Project Mayhem]

okay try again seems to be working at the moment

[Steak]

Project, a very comprehensive summary.  I humbly present for consideration another geopolitical conflict that is getting very little attention in even international press.

There is a growing insurgency in Yemen pitting minority Shi'ites against the governing Sunnis.  Sunni fear of Shia oilfield workers revolting has been a controlling factor in Sunni foreign relations for decades. 

Saudi- Iranian War fought in Sa’ada: http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=1202&MainCat=2

Yemen's instability could draw regional players into fray: http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0827/p99s01-duts.html

Also, I am ever grateful for a new forum topic "The Runway" that focuses on economic models.  I understand you are crafty with the mathwork and are working on a few models of your own.  I would very much like to hear the specifics of that endeavor :-) 

[Project Mayhem]

Thanks , I had no idea about Yemen.  The info is much appreciated.

[Altan311]

Almost forgot, PM could you check this out please? Seems someone just one the presitigous best paper award at the University of Liege in belgium for  this. Long and short, standard model of physics totally wrong. Even more bizarre is the similarity between this paper, and many concepts from one Stoyan Sarg, a bulgarian physicist who wordked under the Soviet SRI (Space Research Instititute) for many yeard before moving to Cananda. I have a copy of Sarg's 700 page textbook, PM me if you need help finding.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8IcciRHGvQ&feature=channel_page

[Anonymous]

ATTENTION EARTHLINGS ZERO!

THIS MAY BE THE BLACK SWAN YOU'RE LOOKING FOR...

DON'T STOP

[Project Mayhem]

This is phenomenal ... I will have to review the paper after re-reading parts of the Feynman lectures but I think this is on point .   The standard model is garbage, and we know the various U.S. black projects have been experimenting with a unification of QED and gravity for some time now.  Just look at the list of papers from this spook at LANL

B. Hasslacher, A. Neveu, "Dynamic charges in field theories", Nuclear Physics (1979).
B. Hasslacher, M.J. Perry, "Spin networks are simplicial quantum gravity", Physics Letters (1981).
B. Hasslacher, "Spontaneous curvature in a class of lattice field theories" Physica D(1991).
B. Hasslacher, M.W. Tilden, "Living machines", Robotics and Autonomous Systems (1995).
Dashen, RF; Hasslacher, B; Neveu, A "Semiclassical bound states in an asymptotically free theory" Physical Review D (Particles and Fields); 1975;

Corrigan, E; Hasslacher, B "Functional-Equation for Exponential Loop Integrals In Gauge Theories" Physics Letters B; 1979; v.81, no.2, p.181-184

Hasslacher, B; Mottola, E, "Asymptotically Free Quantum-Gravity and Black-Holes" Physics Letters B; 1981; v.99, no.3, p.221-224
Hasslacher, B; Perry, MJ, "Spin Networks are Simplicial Quantum-Gravity" Physics Letters B; 1981; v.103, no.1, p.21-24

etc

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brosl_Hasslacher

please email me at project.mayhem.research [at] gmail [dot] com

[Altan311]

Will do, composing now, also I would watch most of the videos at youtube.com/alienscientist, tremendous amount of info about black projects. Going to scan some selected pages from the Sarg book so you can get an idea of his summary of concepts. Dude doesn't even think the big bang happened; each galaxy has complete life cycle, and Gamma Ray Bursts are the semi visible part of the invisible rebirth of galaxies. CMBR red shift is radiation slowdown in the empty euclidian style space inbetween galaxies which have an ether of sorts made of the helical strucutres that propogate out from mini black hole style protons ala Haremin's Schwarzschild Proton, which I believe is the same effect found by Sarg. More soon, just getting first coffee down...

[MinnesotaNice]

I really enjoy your geo-political summary each week... it adds another dimension to what may impact the financial markets. 

Still not in agreement however with the H1N1 government control issue however... their control on that front is a complete illusion... I work in the health care industry every day... and they are still trying to find the opening to the paper bag that they found themselves in... they are just praying the mortality rate doesn't spike and I guess Washington State should give us our beta test site:

2000 Washington State Students Report Signs of Swine Flu

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/health/06flu.html?_r=1&ref=health

(hat tip Quantum Noise)

[Steak]

I'm based out of GA and the Southeast has been hit very hard with the flu.  A big difference I see between Washington State and GA is that we're not testing for H1N1 let alone reporting it.  Doctors here are of the mind that its best not to even tell their patients its H1N1. 

Nonetheless this whole mass infection could turn out to be a good thing (so long as mortality rates stay as low as they've been).  If enough of the population is infected (and thus immunized) early there can be a critical mass of immunity in the population to limit the spread during the height of the season.

[MinnesotaNice]

I agree that it would be a good thing if more people (who have no underlying health issues) got the H1N1 virus right now while it is relatively mild... an actual infection should provide much better immunity than the vaccine... and will reduce the viral load in communities if/when it mutates into a form that has a higher mortality rate.  

[Project Mayhem]

thanks.. . no i absolutely don't want everyone to agree otherwise we will never arrive at the truth.   i'll trade you links heh

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

[MinnesotaNice]

That is so interesting that you follow Recombinomics... I have been following Recombinomics for a long time... ever since the bird flu... watching the clusters develop wondering when one would just take off in our over-populated world. 

In fact I talked with Dr. Niman via email when the H1N1 crisis occurred and it was clear the government had no idea what was going on (as evidenced by Obama returning from the epicenter with our government completely unaware of the risk... and there was indirect information out there from reliable sources that something significant was going on in Mexico)...  and I had to prepare our business... I love following him... he is kind of like the ZH of the pandemic world.

[Miles Kendig]

+1.

I have been reading Recombinomics for some time and have found that site to be simply awesome.  It is nice to know that there are readers of it here.

MnN. since you are directly involved I was wondering if you are familiar with the work of Hope-Simpson and some of his ideas how flu spreads and what you think of these ideas as they pertain to our current circumstance?

Any insights you could provide would be most welcome.

[MinnesotaNice]

For those who don't know about Hope-Simpson:

Hope-Simpson proposed that symptomless carriers became infective in response to a seasonal stimulus and then infect others causing simultaneous explosions of disease in widely different areas. Furthermore, he concluded that those who got sick were not particularly contagious. He proposed that the stimulus for infection "is dependent on variations in solar radiation, an extraterrestrial influence unaffected by the rapidity of human travel. The rapidity of influenza spread was as rapid in previous centuries as it is at present because it does not depend on case-to-case transfer."
He added, "The primary agency mediating seasonal control remains unidentified." That is, something is weakening our immune system, every year, as regularly as changing of the leaves and declining vitamin D levels, but he didn't know what it was.

I feel that there is something that affects the spread of influenza more than just person-to-people proximity and contact... if that was not so then the cases of influenza would be constant year around.  Just look at the huge cluster of students at Washington State that just became ill... 2000 of them... you cannot tell me that the mere act of them going back to school created the conditions for a flu outbreak... I just don't buy that... people have been together all summer in night clubs, camps, movie theatres, large office buildings, hotels, restaurants, hospitals, etc.... and no large outbreaks like this of the flu.  But just when the amount of solar exposure is decreasing we see a huge influenza cluster... so for most of us supplementing with Vitamin D or increased exposure to sunlight might be a good thing in the winter season (however talk to your doctor before adding vitamin supplements).

What do you think?

[Miles Kendig]

I think world society knew more about physics in 1800 than we know about influenza today.  I cannot but help to consider that there is more than a bit of wisdom here.  For the folks that don't know this physician was a general practitioner in England who started asking some very astute questions regarding influenza after he discovered that the herpes virus causes shingles years later.  As you said, he wondered why flu outbreaks happened at the same time, at widely dispersed geographical locations that shared the same climate in an era when travel was much more difficult.  His observations and the follow on work in this area involving influenza outbreaks in the tropics during the rainy season in patterns that mimicked (albeit in a muted way) his observations I believe may provide furtile ground for further study.

In essence what I am thinking is that for influenza to really get rolling it needs time to "seed" humans, especially when a "new" strain is attempting to cross the animal/human barrier for the first time (as in H5N1) rather than what I suspect may well be a last hurrah for H1N1, even with this new reassortment.  We'll see.  Fact is that my kids & I are taking vitamin D supplements, albeit vary carefully since we were instructed that it is easy to become toxic.  I wonder if tanning beds would be an alternative or if those provide the kind wrong rays?  

Thanks for your considered and informative response.

[Gordon_Gekko]

As usual, excellent work PM.

[Ruth]

Let the tie eating contests begin, priceless!  Let the tie hanging, I mean, eating contests begin here with the banksters.  Either way, I think the outcome is choking, carry on!

[Thoreau]

having lost a brother in vietnam, i know it's hard for the family & general public to see pics of dead/dying soldiers; but it's a travesty that the true face of war is hidden under the guise of patriotism & "supporting our troops." war has become nothing more than a detached video game that occurs somewhere outside of our safe disneyesque-dreamworld. put those pics on the frontpage; give the soldiers their 15-minutes of acclaim; and let the american public sleep on it... if they can.

[Anonymous]

in my dumb bunny days i used to think that the
war in the middle east post 911 was about terrorism..
i have since discovered that it is about the
bush crime syndicate's oil deals with osama
bin laden, pipelines across iraq and afghanistan,
and darker more sinister machinations of global
conquest....america has 1500-2000 military bases
around the world? to protect america? no - to
conquor and destroy....

the people in the pentagon and cia or pyschotic
kooks...their strategy is to create interminable
unwinnable wars to perpetuate the military
industrial complex state and all of its secrecy...

the wtc were destroyed by military grade
nanothermite created at skandia labs....it was
farce just like gulf of tonkin....the only thing
that the stupid bitch baby bush could do was
laugh and read goat stories while daddy bush
pulled the strings...

porter goss was having breakfast with the head
of isi pakistan intelligence the morning of
911 to direct the air attacks from his cellular
phone...

barbara olson was not even on the flight which
hit the pentagon and had no conversations at all
with husband ted...

it's a farce people....a grand illusion for
creating strong delusion...

[Anonymous]

Aye. Amen buddy.

Anybody who sends soldiers in harms way should be hold accountable that soldiers die...and don't die pleasantly, they die bleeding, they die screaming, they die with fear, and they die young.

War is not glory, is not patrotic fanfare...is blood and tears and limbs of soldiers.
They will go in harms way, they will continue to go because a soldier knows what Duty Honour Country means...they know because they pay the price.

Let this price be well known. Let be well known it the ultimate, gruesome bloody price.
Soldiers die in war.

The public should know that...treat each of those soldiers as your son or daughter..do send them in harms way only for a solidly worthy cause...or there will be no place for you but the darkest Hell.

[Anonymous]

I lost my oldest brother in Nam, 1966, he was 19. remember the names scrolling down the old b/w crt? gulf of tonken sp? never happened.

[Anonymous]

I lost my oldest brother in Nam, 1966, he was 19. remember the names scrolling down the old b/w crt? gulf of tonken sp? never happened.

[SWRichmond]

Yeah.  As I get older I find myself unable to watch more than a few minutes of "Band of Brothers", for example.  The realistic portrayal brings it home; I have an uncle I've never met because of WWII, and I have a son, and while I see heroism, devotion to duty, and comradeship, I can't stop thinking about what these men should have been doing all that time instead of what they in fact were doing.  The older I get the harder it gets. 

War for a government that now has come to hate us, and actually tells us so repeatedly?  Not likely.  Support the troops by bringing them home.

[Miles Kendig]

SWR, no doubt. 

This 100% disabled vet with my son an active duty Marine would most definitely like to see the process of taking the nation to war returned to the process envisioned by the founders.  I have seen what a "war" of limited national disruption is and it is sickening in so many fundamental ways.  War is the most extreme measure a nation can undertake and if compelled to do so then the whole country needs to go to war since it very existence is threatened or a nation should not go at all.  It would appear as though the US government is so overwhelmed that it is having ever increased problems deploying its coercive powers in coherent ways and is left with blundering about to great ill effect for all directly or indirectly concerned.

[MinnesotaNice]

Agreed... war should be the maximum force needed to accomplish the mission in the shortest period of time to protect the continued existence of a country.  I cannot believe we are still sitting in Afghanistan and Iraq after all these years... if you are going to do something then do it right... have we forgotten the draft if we need more men and women... this is like Chinese Water torture watching this slow drip of bodies come back home while we make little progression. 

[Miles Kendig]

Indeed.

I suspect that the last thing that our leadership desires is any sort of progress that calls our continued presence in the 'stans into question.  PM is quite correct on this point from my perspective.  The whole Afghanistan situation is about having a serious military presence in that specific area for the reasons specified and perhaps one or two that are under the radar.

[Altan311]

Fuck yeah bring em home, and for the record I can't stand when people call such a notion patriotic. The honor of duty and service for your country  can only prevail when thee boys have an honest and honorably mission to perform. Protecting the Golden Triangle Opium trade and Caspian energy reserves might not fit in that category ;) Side question, has anyone heard of one Christopher Story from http://worldreports.org/  ? Speaks alot about the intelligence community fueled drug trade. Also, I recently found out extremely pure sniffable heroin has taken ove rmy old high school.

[Miles Kendig]

Way more money in heroin + it fills a needed gap in the great international circle route of washing liquidity through US controlled institutions.

Yep.  there is a huge problem with super pure heroin everywhere right now.  Cheap.

[I need more cowbell]

"In summary: We're all fucked, it's getting worse, have a great weekend!"

Indeed. I have a bottle of 25 year Macallan that I'm going to polish off today. I have a newfound philosophy on the occassional splurge. I am amazed the other party is giving me something really good, for these funny colored pieces of paper. Sweet.

[Anonymous]

Great scoop for Ambrose of the Daily Telegraph

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100000821/ch...