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Good Numbers: Be Careful What You Wish For!
From Nic Lenoir of ICAP
With economic numbers in the US on the rise and surprising the market ever since the last Empire survey, the USD is on the rise. Many have placed bets on a weaker greenback and higher commodity prices. The rational is certainly understandable. I have been rather skeptical. While there is no doubt that the only way for the US to be competitive in the global economy would be a significantly weaker USD or protectionism, along with some reconsideration of certain social programs or union agreements, I have favored a stronger dollar because of the weakness of the USD and because I am highly doubtful that the current recovery is sustainable at all without massive stimulus. Truth be told it is the failure of QE 2.0 to bring lower rates in the US that made the USD turn. So I must admit while I had my eye on the right horse the catalyst was not the one I expected.
Recently my view has been strengthened as technically the USD has perfectly bounced on the 60-dma which we had recommended buying and is surging today following a strong ADP number. It seems now that beyond QE's inefficiency to lower rates, it is now the shot in the economy's arm provided by all the recent stimulus that is adding pressure on bonds and further pushing the DXY up. If we take out 81.95 this move will have a lot more legs than people anticipate.
Last night I pointed out to a few Fixed Income traders that we had a very interesting reversal in EDH2. With today's number Eurodollar futures have come under a lot of pressure validating the reversal. A break below 98.80 on a daily close would confirm further downside potential, and probably more USD strength.
On a completely separate note I have added the 10s/30s US Treasury curve chart. This trade is more bullish than bearish, but in complement with shorts in EDH2, we have held a huge support recently, and despite weakness in bonds the trade is still up 1bps since yesterday morning when we started highlighting it. As long as 100bps is not bypassed to the downside we should pull-back to at least 125bps.
Last but not least, while being wildly critical of the US policies, and similar ponzi schemes being carried out around the globe, I have noted recently concurrently with our USD bullish outlook that precious metals could come under pressure. Today silver broke the bullish trend support and gold sold off through the 50-dma. The risk is a pullback down to 25.90 in silver and 1,260 in gold. However both market will remain in secular bull cycles as long as central banks don't let the foot off the printing press.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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http://www.nashvillescene.com/imager/his-presidential-aspirations-just-got-a-little-more-complicated/b/original/1475404/c51c/Bill-Frist.jpg
Bill Frist Kicks ass but Haley Barbour would win in a pissing contest
Gold. Gold will be CRUSHED
Under all the new gold that's piled on top of it...
Yeah, I think price suppression here has some legs, I think $1050 will be the lowest it goes and will be an excellent buy at this price. Yes, I realize it's an excellent buy at any price, but if you're min/maxing, this is where I think the next entry point will be.
$1050 sounds good but as always I'll snif the air a bit when it gets there and then decide.
I found a pic of the JP Morgue out buying goldz.
http://imgur.com/s/ecEVO
LOL
Where's my munny bitch?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S805lTxqLSM
Gold doesn't need to go "down" very much. The US Dollar was strong in the 1970's and 1980's while inflation was high single to double digits. Unemployment is currently running DOUBLE the advertised rate due to people falling off of "assistance" so unemployment will take another 5+ years to come down to a "real" 5-6% or so. This means that while the economy recovers, without benefit of high wages, taxes effectively flat, capital gains pretty much toast (aside from estate taxes)--- and ENTITLEMENTS already legislated (spending will happen based on already committed budgets regardless of who's in office) you will continue to see USD-weakness despite the bouts of recovery-activity on the horizon.
What people fail to realize is that there remains a $5TLN annual hole in entitlements that rolls up each and every year. On top of this our government spends around $1TLN in defecit so you get a roll-up of $6TLN annually plus interest expense plus inflation --- on an economy that without benefit of "free money" and a ton of credit might be closer to $9TLN (GDP) annual run rate vs the $13-14TLN annual GDP that people like to talk about. Those figures are very real and are the underpinnings of why the Fed cannot afford to let off of the printing press--- even with the economy recovering, no matter who is in the White House.
The future is legislated and frankly, very much baked into the system.
We continue to opportunistically position clients with the end-game in mind, knowledge firmly in hand.
Shawn A. Mesaros
Pamria, LLC
When, when will this happen?
soon
The DXY, as a relative measure, is useless in assessing the "strength" of the USD.
Against a basket of hard commodities and PMs, the dollar is losing big. That's all you really need to know.
Nic
Didn't you have a feeling something bad was about to happen a few weeks ago? Whatever happened with that?
You had a bunch of charts that had you worried.
I just pay no attention to the doomers here and keep making money.
and i suppose that's why you're reading and posting here...
I read to learn what the professional fool is doing so that I may maximize my rape of their assets.
I post when the ignorance of what is posted becomes too much to "bear."
I'm guessing that as a good Tyler Sheeple, you prefer no one interrupt your orgy of ignorance of any reminders of how bad the information posted here has proven to be.
Quickly, junk my post and head to your bunker; there are beans to be eaten and bullets to be fired. Oh, and don't forget to pet your shiney stuff as it feels a little discouraged lately.
You sound like you got picked on high school one too many times - especially if you're dumb enough to talk bad about the "shiney stuff" when it has been on a major roll the past few years just because the "shiney stuff" isn't at its highs for an extremely short time period.
Deaf guy is right - if you're making substantial money, why you wasting your time here?
Besides - anyone who really makes money doesn't talk about it. You beat the odds and are getting "rewarded" for it with miniscule returns over a long period of time. Then again - regardless of what bulltards think, the stock market always rises slowly - and crashes quickly.
no mas is a blood tick with balls the size of his mouth riding a dying donkey through the mojave desert.....
No mas imbecil. You've added nothing of substance via your posts, just patronizing remarks.
When you care to offer substance and contribute to the discussion, feel free to come back.
Bullish or bearish is not your problem, childish is...
Ya you're a real heavy weight. You just got knocked the fuck out by a greased up deaf guy and a homer simpson. I think someone is being egotistical in a room full of humble people.
Wanna play bunker soldier?
Orchestral Maneuvres in the Dark- Bunker Soliders
Trained bodies in coordination
Is that a better way for bunker soldiers?
But it's a nicer way to spend a war
On lava beaches and sandy seaside
The rusting bodies are surplus now, then
We never taught them how to fight like that
The object's exercise is so compulsive
It's not a better way, but it still suits us
I'd give up rice fields to fight like you
It's not a better way
Though we are here to stay
Well, that might seem okay
Waves of people in strange directions
It's no use talking, there's no decisions
They gave up houses to be refugees
The mud in ditches is over their knees
The sand-bagged trenches are over our heads
This kind of warfare's become hide and seek
Though khaki uniforms are universal
Your propaganda is losing appeal
I'd give up rice fields to fight like you
I'd give up rice fields to fight like you
I'd give up rice fields to fight like you
I'd give up rice fields to fight like you
It's not a better way
Though we are here to stay
Well, that might seem okay
OMD lyrics read better in LOLcat..;)
"souvenirs" is the only good song they ever had anyway....
Is this idiot ever right about anything? Gold and silver will remain in secular bull markets no matter what the price? LMFAO!!! So 50% haircuts won't be a problem. He'll even say he predicted it. What a joke. Opinions are like assholes.
Fool's gold
Nic has one right call in the last 6 months, and he's back touting it.
Excerpted from www.harveyorgan.blogspot.com:
The harder you pull on a whipsaw, the harder the return action is gonna be! Just keep pumping the price of Physical lower with paper, watch the physical metal(s) get bought up and drive the price(s) (even the paper!) up again! Rinse and repeat -- does NO ONE learn from this??
Oh I see their mistake. If they had concentrated shorted madonna CD's it would have worked. But they conentrated shorted something people actually want. Effectively putting it on sale.
I suggest you pay attention to the MXN and CAD and Treasury market as US dollars flee across the local borders today. Maybe you can declare victory on your dollar strength and gold weakness once you break even from your original predictions.
Finally, someone else who gets it! I've been dealing with the CAD for a while, though recently exited for the most part (to purchase real assets). Unlike most others, Canada has "surplus" resources (tar sands BS aside).
In this 2 year bad news is good news market, watch out for any actual good news as the certain top has been hit. Buy the peak, bitchez.
Nic, you have been the best contrarian indicator on this board. Now that you are going long, I now that the top is near
he doesn't write that stuff for this board!
That's besides the point. When perma-bears like Nic start to go long, you know that the mindset of the market has changed and one should be careful. We might be due for a pullback pretty soon.
If you are going to make predictions about the future, you better find a happy medium...
...or at least use a gay fortune teller!
ZH has polluted me, I was fooled into believing the 90% of the bullshit written on here, now I'm fucking broke. The market doesn't rise for two years and still be unsustainable, wake the fuck up!
Wow this post just exposes you as a real clown. Hillarious to see someone begging to buy the top, judging it 'sustainable', but is broke along the way due to some blog? <:oD
Hey Sheeple-Dog One, is this the top? Are you going on record as calling this the top?
Tyler loves you man, you can sleep well tonight.
Don't look now but things are getting better out in the world beyond your basement walls. Much, much better!
If by better you mean that patience is growing thin and serious physical violence against dipshits, loudmouths, annoying fucktards, slimey brokers, crooks, scumbags and lowlifes of all stripe is right around the corner.... Then Yes... Things ARE getting better.
OH yea things are getting MUCH better, for sure. And one day soon none of you trolls will be seen again.
Dontcha know? ZH was created as a huge social studies experiment. Thanks for playing.
Many a truth spoken in jest
Maybe you missed the disclaimer ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->>
wait, you lost your money and it's ZH's fault?
Might I inquire as to what you invested in?
by the way, if you've lost money, avoid this:
http://www.behaviorgap.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Sentiment-Survey-5...
Nudedude, The chick in here is not a Nudedudette but she will certainly cheer you up:
http://www.google.com/images?q=meghan%20fox&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox&oe=UTF-8&rlz=1I7GGLL_en&um=1&ie=UTF-8&source=og&sa=N&hl=en
Nudedude can't afford anything close to that anymore.
ZH hasn't really been the place to come for money making tips over the last few months. I have lost some money shorting too - thankfully only a small percentage though.
Fortunately (unfortunately?) my wife ignores anything I say and has made a ton buying all kind of crap financial stocks. Just hope she can be persuaded to sell before it's too late.
nude
happy (horseshit) days may be here again but why is my checking account still bringing a bupkis interest rate? What of the thousands of municipal/corpoRAT layoffs to come in 2011...the continued deterioration in the housing and CMBS market...Ben's continued ZIRP and POMO's...ramping food and gas prices....
How you can confuse the slurping sounds coming from the Hogs of wall street feeding at Ben's Oligarchy Buffet with a healthy, vibrant economy is beyond me....
ES
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/01/es_3907.html
I don't blame ZH, but these type of websites claim to spew the truth and crucify the MSM, even when the MSM is right. I've learned these sites pick their spots, ignoring data that won't support their bullshit.
I've learned my lesson not to believe most of what is on the net. For every Rosenberg there is fifty guys just as smart and as rich that are saying things are improving. These doom websites just move from story to story, whatever will support them, however flimsy the proof is. How many flash crashes have been called on here, 100?
Yeah! Well I'm still gonna buy silver, because a guy named Turd on the internet told me to, that's why!
Good move Cheesy Bastard! Nudedude is just a f_ckstick/troll griping because he missed his daily dose of anti-dep meds.
Well well what do we have here.
Is this the influence patrol. Or the influenza patrol. What kind of disease are you? Can our immune system identify the invader and kill it. Film at a 11.
Sheep dog, what a appropriate name for you, how long have we been calling for a top, 18 months now. The economy always finds its equilibrium, always, this time is no different.
With 4 trillion in stimulus and unherd of intervention. Now thats what i call equilibrium.
Your top will called one day too... Haha...
Please go on with enumerating your strategy and show us all how brilliant you are...
Why don't you give me your name and I can run you through some of my little helper systems and see how your strategies are working?
No?
Just wanna talk some shit... I see.
OK your Fantasy Strategy beats mine... I give up... You win.
After 3 year of BS technicals, we bring out.... more technicals.
Somehow, I REALLY DON'T CARE!
And for silver, If god loves me, it will go back down to 25$!
But because I've done enough shit in my life to go to hell 50 times in a row I don't really count on it.
The stock market comes down to earnings which are soaring with no sign of slowing down. As a Canadian, Americans think that 10 million fat lazy unemployed Americans will crash the worlds economy, doesn't mean shit in the grand scale.
As for a few piss ass European countries defaulting, big fucking deal, countries have defaulted forever and things have always recovered. Sure there will be another recession if you can wait 7 years. It's the same regurgitated bullshit on here day after day, and none of it ever materializes, anyone ever figure that out.
I'm just a dumb fool with no investing experience who thought he could make some easy money and lost a lot. I was duped into this depression bullshit, live and learn. I believe that people who have a negative outlook on life are the ones who preach doom and gloom because their life sucks and want to drag others down too, that's mostly what hang out on websites like this. Others couldn't be bothered wasting their time on here and are out making things happen.
So your stupid... Just like all the other stupids out there.
You don't have to believe anything. Yet you choose to believe "the ZH BS" and then blame them for losing money?
Why don't you take up something that is more your speed and will make you happy instead of bitching at people about your pathetic life?
Something like drinking bleach, or cleaning loaded weapons...
Are you really telling us that this rally in stocks is based on fundamentals and good earnings? You propably think the rally in oil is based on demand and supply? Do you mean earnings like the big banks have which is based on the biggest fraud in the history of the world, thanks to arm twisting of the accounting board by the government to change the FASB rules ( under the threat of tanks in the streets by Paulson and co). This is liquidity bubble created by the FED and cannot continue forever and you will be the last one to know when the rug gets pulled and stupid retail bagholders will be left to hold the bag. It happened before and will happen again and if you think you can time it then good luck to you.
"I'm just a dumb fool" Given what you've said, you could've just stopped there and made your point succinctly.
This is odd. I've listened to the losers on zerohedge and made 60% on my silver purchases and 30% on my gold. This is more than anyone investing in stocks would have made.
Maybe you're listening to the wrong zerohedge retards, like Robotraitor?
" I believe that people who have a negative outlook on life are the ones who preach doom and gloom because their life sucks and want to drag others down too"
Just like liberals are jealous of people with more money than them, isn't it? You may be right up to some extent. Everybody has some emotional biases. But if their life "suck", maybe the current society has something to do with it, and thus there is a big problem in the current society, don't you think?
Except that the current economy has nothing to do with "life". A blown-up of the Ponzi pyramid of fractional banking and socialism would be the most joyful event of the last centuries, and would allow free men and women to start rebuilding a country based on truth, freedom, honesty and justice.
nudedude...
"I'm just a dumb fool", you could have just stopped your post right there. If you can't look at this current market and see that it is built on a foundation of crap then you are indeed a dumb fool. Just like the folks that threw themselves out of windows in 1929 when the market melted the f#$k down. The market is great and making all kinds of fiat returns, until one day it doesn't.
Internet advice: Grains of salt optional but strongly recommended.
"Many have placed bets on a weaker greenback and higher commodity prices"
Not me...
USD strength keeps returning because USD larger time frames continue to give bullish warnings !
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
And at the bottom of it all, anything can happen at any time. By tomorrow open for all anyone knows they decided overnite its time to pull the rug. It will happen, can happen any day now and no one knows better than anyone else.
I dont see much in those charts to show much strength, the top one shows just under upper trend and the lower chart shows a megaphone that could go either way. Besides it all just depends on what other currencies do. I think the Euro drops, that will buoy the dollar some, but its all a bunch of fake crap.
What I think..
http://viewfromthewilds.blogspot.com/2011/01/to-qe-or-not-to-qe-that-is-question.html