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Graham Summers Weekly Market Forecast (the End Game Approaches Edition)

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

Stocks have
started to break down in a big way again. It looks as though we’ve entered a
wide trading range on the S&P 500:

 

 

If we don’t
bounce hard at 1,300, we’re going to 1,250 in short order. The $1 million
question on everyone’s mind is whether this is just a correction or the start
of another Crisis.

 

The US
Dollar is indicating it could very well be the latter:

 

 

As you can
see, the US Dollar looks to have just
broken out of a falling wedge pattern. The ultimate target for this breakout,
if confirmed, is over 84. The only thing that could instigate that kind of move
would be a full-scale Crisis (the last two significant US Dollar rallies were
due to the 2008 Crash and 2010 Euro Crisis, respectively).

 

If this
happens it will be the Eurozone that starts it. The debt problems over there
have no spread to Italy, a country far too large for the EBC to bail out. And
with the European banking system being just as, if not even more saturated with
toxic debt as the US’s, we could see a systemic collapse over there from just
about anywhere: Portugal could take
down Spain which could in turn take down Germany, etc.

 

Indeed, the
Euro is hanging on for dear life at 140. A break below this level would
indicate we are at the beginning of a serious breakdown in the Eurozone. That
would be the trigger to watch for the beginning of REAL trouble.

 

 

However, one
thing is clear: we are fast approaching the REAL Crisis.  And there’s no shortage of Black Swans
to hit either. The Euro problem isn't going away. In fact, it's now spread from
Greece to Italy and Portugal... the latter county now being officially rated as
"junk."

 

Meanwhile,
China is experiencing a liquidity Crisis on par with the Lehman-collapse. In
fact, a recent bond auction there failed to sell EVEN HALF of the bonds offered
(there's not enough capital available).

 

And then of
course there's the US where we have only two weeks to deal with the debt
ceiling before we begin a default.

 

The next
Crisis is literally at our doorstep. And it’s going to kick off another 2008
episode as all the over-leveraged players (read: EVERYONE) will have to sell
positions to meet margin/ redemption calls. However, this time around we’ll
also see civil unrest as people lose their social safety nets (unemployment,
social security, etc).

 

On that
note, if you’ve yet to prepare for these issues, you can download my FREE
report devoted to showing in painstaking detail how to protect yourself and
your portfolio from the coming ROUND TWO of the Financial Crisis (round one
wiped out $11 TRILLION in wealth).

 

I call it The
Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit
.
And its 17 pages contain a
wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own,
which to avoid, and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market
(this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

 

Again, this
is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, go to http://www.gainspainscapital.com
and click on FREE REPORTS.

 

Good
Investing!

 

Graham
Summers

 

PS. We also
offer a FREE Special Report on the inflation situation in the US. This other
FREE Special Report, The Inflationary
Disaster
explains not only why inflation is here now, why the Fed is
powerless to stop it, and three investments that absolutely EXPLODE as a result
of this.

 

All in all
its 14 pages contain a literal treasure trove of information on how to take
steps to prepare AND profit from what’s to come. And it’s all 100% FREE.

 

To pick up
your copy today, go to http://www.gainspainscapital.com
and click on FREE REPORTS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Tue, 07/19/2011 - 01:19 | 1469261 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

October is going to be interesting.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:58 | 1468815 r101958
r101958's picture

Right. Whenever the desire to purchase our treasuries starts to wither our ratings houses execute a shock and awe downgrade campaign on the the Eurozone. All the while keeping our debt rated AAA.....and we are shocked that there is a now a crisis with the Euro?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:45 | 1468771 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Would Obama count as a "Black Swan"?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:02 | 1468659 chump666
chump666's picture

Once you can swing like Summers then you can talk sh*t.

Taleb called Sept 11 a black Swan post event.  Point is Black Swans are ambiguous, but potential events.  If you trade in the markets you wanna look at these events.  Summer is watching China, and I would too, with a bond market flop and a liquidity crisis pending.  It amazes me that China hasn't been factored in as a massive black Swan event (anytime soon)...just hard to time.

Nothing is predicatble.  Summers hedges on 'events'.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 20:44 | 1468594 Sambo
Sambo's picture

You have misunderstood the meaning of black swan.

A predictable event cannot by definition be a black swan.

What was once a black swan has become white...keynesian economics is a failure and we have known that for a long time. No black swan there.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 19:50 | 1468439 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

  I actually laughed out loud when I looked at the charts. There's no way this dude is going to survive as a trader.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 19:49 | 1468433 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 A dreadful example of a newsletter; and that's a field where there's really stiff competition for "worst".

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:31 | 1468055 aaronb17
aaronb17's picture

Yeah, I remember the last time you said the collapse was coming -- right before the huge fall 2010 rally, remember?   See here: 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/it-just-me-or-2010-feeling-lot-2008

Of course this time you might be right ... but it'll be luck, not skill.  If you're always screaming for a crash, you will of course be right once in a while.  And those who haven't gone broke following your advice all the times you were wrong will be grateful. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:25 | 1468032 problemfixr
problemfixr's picture

Let's see if I can do a Graham Summers Cliff Notes:  Shit is bad, it's real bad now and it's going to get worse.  I mean really, really bad.  Download my report.  Did I miss anything?

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 22:19 | 1468881 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

and it's FREE

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 18:03 | 1468049 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Other than he needs you to work on his keyboard, no.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 15:58 | 1467730 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

"there’s no shortage of Black Swans to hit either"

Dang it, by definition you cannot predict a black swan, obviously you've missed the gist of Taleb's swans.

Tue, 07/19/2011 - 01:21 | 1469266 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

They arrive in flocks.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:30 | 1468732 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the real question is whether that giant H&S confirms...I had a friend wanting to short the start of the right shoulder and I said wait till 1350+.  Either this thing should break down past the neckline hard or rally like fuck off of it a la that big July H&S

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:35 | 1468070 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

You're correct, but also wrong.  By definition you can't predict it, but you can observe it moving through the financial system like a great white shark just under the ocean surface.  You don't know what it is, but it's just out of sight and waiting to strike. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 21:08 | 1468675 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

wow-4x b striking.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 18:05 | 1468152 JohnG
JohnG's picture

I see what you did there, repeating yourself like Summers.

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:31 | 1468059 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

You're correct, but also wrong.  By definition you can't predict it, but you can observe it moving through the financial system like a great white shark just under the ocean surface.  You don't know what it is, but it's just out of sight and waiting to strike. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:31 | 1468052 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

You're correct, but also wrong.  By definition you can't predict it, but you can observe it moving through the financial system like a great white shark just under the ocean surface.  You don't know what it is, but it's just out of sight and waiting to strike. 

Mon, 07/18/2011 - 17:30 | 1468044 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

You're correct, but also wrong.  By definition you can't predict it, but you can observe it moving through the financial system like a great white shark just under the ocean surface.  You don't know what it is, but it's just out of sight and waiting to strike. 

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