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Greece Bailout Rumor

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP

There is a rumor of a bailout going around. It is worth watching as the Greece/Germany spread was wider by 17bps on the day again. It may be worth looking at shorting some bunds here, especially given that 10s rejected their 118-10 resistance yesterday in the US.

Good luck trading,

Nic

 

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Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:02 | 208916 ETF-Trader
ETF-Trader's picture

Pic?

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:07 | 208918 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I love domino theory.  Does this mean UK won't be putting Greece on the terrorist watch list like it did Iceland?

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 11:40 | 209101 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"UK won't be putting Greece on the terrorist watch list like it did Iceland?"

If Blair toady and  Uberfuck Gordon Brown doles out Brit tax payer money as political payola to cover uninsured deposits on banks the idiot Darling didn't regulate...

Then extorts Greece into paying Brown for his political payola the way he did Iceland...

And if Greek voters flip Brown the bird he so richly deserved...

Then yes Uberfuck Brown would put Greece on the terrorist watch list...

ESPECIALLY if putting Iceland on the terrorist watch list gave Brown a bump in the polls... Where do you think US politicians learned to be such disingenuous worms? From the mother country...

"Tony Blair can't be a war criminal... he listens to Oasis!"
   Rob Newman

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 11:57 | 209148 Busy-Body
Busy-Body's picture

Can anyone shed any light on the recent machinations for the Iceland referendum?  Thanks in advance.

Fri, 01/29/2010 - 01:03 | 210525 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Oh they got their sociopaths locked down pretty good over there. You should see a wonderful analysis of Tony Blair completely faking emotional reactions at princess diana's funeral.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:07 | 208920 dan22
dan22's picture

bond yields of the rest of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) have been rising steadily over the past month since a default of Greece will imply that they do not have an implicit guarantee on behalf of Germany, just like the collapse of Lehman Brothers took down the bonds of major banks around the world in September of 08.
http://israelfinancialexpert.blogspot.com/2010/01/when-will-euro-collapse.html

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:12 | 208923 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

So Ireland has made savage cuts in the interest of the ..........Greeks

If they called the Germans bluff their politicians must be great poker players.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:15 | 208926 taraxias
taraxias's picture

The Greeks are not the Irish. Tough austerity measures would have been met with riots in the streets. Brussels knows that.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:13 | 208924 Daedal
Daedal's picture

Who's going to bail Greece out? Turkey? Spain? LoL.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 10:18 | 208975 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

Bernanke and his boss.  The guys with all the money.   CHINA

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 11:12 | 209054 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

One thing is for damn sure it will not be the Euros.

While politically it must ostensibly come from

there it will be indirectly funded by mom&pop.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:20 | 208927 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

I call BS.  Nobody's going to bail Greece out because they know there's a bailout line forming, and the moment they bail out Greece the line forms in front of whoever bailed them out.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:29 | 208935 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yeah, I agree. It has to be dawning on the Eurocrats that the EU isn't going to make it through this as a whole. Why throw bad money after good?

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:28 | 208933 poydras
poydras's picture

Agreed.  Germany is unlikely to sign up for a bailout.  The prescription for deadbeat nations is devaluation and austerity.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:30 | 208936 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

German MoF denying through newswires

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:32 | 208939 10044
10044's picture

You never know, china might sell dollars to buy euros for greece, possibility

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:33 | 208941 asdf
Thu, 01/28/2010 - 10:06 | 208968 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

French official denies, also.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:38 | 208943 Grouch
Grouch's picture

German MoF have already denied this on newswires

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:49 | 208950 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Wednesday, January 27, 2010
SCREWED !!

http://inpoints.blogspot.com/2010/01/screwed.html

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:52 | 208954 heatbarrier
heatbarrier's picture

Europe Lays Plans for How to Bail Out Greece-NYT

The mechanism of any bailout would be complex since there is doubt as to whether the EU’s governing treaty permits such aid.

The question of whether the International Monetary Fund might become involved in a bailout appears to have divided euro-area governments. Some countries would prefer to see a regional resolution, while others see no problem in working with the supranational lender.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/29/business/global/29bailout.html

I bet IMF.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 09:58 | 208959 plongka10
plongka10's picture

i bet China.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 10:33 | 208989 heatbarrier
heatbarrier's picture

China Shouldn’t Rescue Greece by Buying Debt, Yu Says

“Let European governments and the European Central Bank rescue Greece.”

“China should avoid government bonds that offer high interest rates like that of Greece’s, as safety should be the first concern,” said Lu Ting, a Hong Kong-based economist with Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. China should favor debt of countries with a better economic situation such as Germany and leave bailouts to the International Monetary Fund, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a0qFe2Y.5GEI

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 12:20 | 209199 Art Vandelay
Art Vandelay's picture

"China should avoid government bonds that offer high interest rates like that of Greece's, as safety should be the first concern." So, what we're going to do, is buy more U.S. Treasuries, which are not only unsafe, but low yielding as well.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 10:22 | 208979 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Greece is really a putrid place that is a banana republic of a country. In actuality, it really shouldn't be considered a country at all. How it ever joined the Euro I will never know.
The people there are backwards as hell, and don't know their ass from their face. The sooner it defaults the better.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 11:01 | 209026 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Odds of the ECB undertaking an "extend and pretend" strategy via the IMF (or the Fed or China or Mexican drug cartels or just about anyone with a few ducats in their pocket): 99.999%

Odds of the ECB making a stand against a member state and causing a default within the Union (and taking down a goodly number of banks as an after-effect): 0.001%

It's probably even less likely than those odds. Extend and pretend, babies. Extend and pretend.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 11:24 | 209075 bokapita
bokapita's picture

100% correct. The mechanism will be various banks buy the Greek bonds and receive a guarantee on the old boy network that if push comes to shov ethey will be repaid by their national governments.

Business as usual in the core Euro states.

Thu, 01/28/2010 - 11:44 | 209117 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

PIGS? The manatra for the last 18 months is that central europe was going to crack? I didnt. Just more propaganda. Even rates in Hungary have been steadily declining.

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