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Greece CDS Hits Fresh Record; Funding Crisis Now Official
The economic situation in Greece is getting worse by the day. Despite PM Papandreou's promises to the contrary, it is probably safe to say that the country is now in a full blown funding crisis; this is reflected in the country's fresh new record in its default risk as seen by credit traders. At 346 bps, it is just a matter of time before all hedges cover positions and this number explodes. Now it is the Eurozone's turn to promise it will not expel Greece from the monetary union: we think the likelihood of this action is increasing proportional to the number of times this possibility is refuted.
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buy the breakouts!
Best Greek export since the pledge pin.
Where is Project Mayhem?
Where is Project Mayhem?
"Now it is the Eurozone's turn to promise it will not expel Greece from the monetary union: we think the likelihood of this action is increasing proportional to the number of times this possibility is refuted."
LOL
dupe
anyone care to give odds on a mysterious oven mitt ES trade when SPX is down over 25 pts
Not today I'm afraid. Even the most managed markets (or maybe especially the most managed markets) need to retrace to the 50dma or lower bollinger band now and again, otherwise everyone gets nervous and suspicious and stops buying.
This is a High Stakes Poker game. The New York banksters have trillions courtesy of the US taxpayor. They use these monies to destabilize the CDS market (Greece)- needlessly. Germany responds by signing a multi billion $gas deal with Iran. This is how the US started WW2. History certainly repeats. Next: the US banksters/government will declare Germany a terrorist state; it will encourage Americans to enlist. Study your history.
Beware of Wall Street Banksters bearing loans.
Nazis. I hate these guys.
@Anon:
Did you just say that WWII was started by Wall Street using a taxpayer bailout to destabilize the global CDS market!? Are you going to tell us that the Holocaust never actually took place, as well?
What fucking history did you study!?
Also part of a "f..ing" history:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/sep/25/usa.secondworldwar
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/daily/nov98/nazicars30.htm
Only few examples. Our world is not as simple as black and white.
If you have more examples to validate your original statement, by all means, please share them. The assumption that Prescott Bush profited from slave labor does not imply that "the US started WW2," and stating Hitler's awe of Henry Ford's industrial practices led to Germany's invasion of Poland is simply ridiculous.
I recognize your innate desire to connect past events to current times, but this is just too much. Perhaps re-read your original comment, then my direct response, and try again.
Thanks for the readings.
[Edit]
Please start by expounding upon your thoughts of how the U.S. started WWII, and then site your suppositions accordingly.
Just 2 words. RED ALERT...
http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/2010/01/red-alert.html
Do not underestimate the Germans , they have long memorys - If the Greeks do not play ball they will be sacrificed
I too believe that, but let me go into details here.
I think ECB actually isn't FED and I pray for them to play this properly.
If anything - Greece can always borrow on tougher terms - providing collateral (gold, anyone?). I believe ECB wouldn't mind permanently taking greek gold in exchange for more (more, more...) loans and if they (Greek politicians) actually prove the dumbasses they are - taking it permanently and then kicking them out with nothing. That is, not bending the ECB rules.
In this way Greece would gain quite a few years to get their fiscal record straight (what they need) and they'd be able to stay in EU and EMU (what they want). The ECB would get their hands on more gold (what they want) and the EU would keep the greek market and territory (what they want and perhaps even need in the long run, geopolitically).
To me, this is a win-win :-)
Of course, to Greece it's a "win" only providing their lovely socialists are able to balance the budget in a few years. Ehrmmm.
i find you ABSOLUTELY RIGHT!!!
excellent understanding of grk affairs.
however, the end will come just later....
Why thank you Sir!
I owe much my understanding to the Thoughts of many people pondering this strange world of ours. As always, I can only offer a link to more information shared by people with a similar worldview. One of them is certainly http://fofoa.blogspot.com/
As for "the end", I am not sure what exactly are you referring to in this particular case. Is it the default of Greece or the end of the current monetary system - or perhaps something else?
Both of those and more.
THANKS FOR REPLYING FOR ME
IN THIS ORDER, GREECE THEN THE MONETARY UNION THEN THE REST
Yeah, but can you imagine what the price of Gold would do if Greece offered up Gold as collateral? Remonetizing Gold! Thats what its all about, baby!
Sir, I believe there are two distinct ideas in your post which, in my mind, do not necessarily imply one another:
1. Greece offering its gold as collateral for ECB loans or ECB demanding just the same.
2. Remonetization (demonetization - depends on word usage) of gold. I am not sure we are on the same line here, so I would just briefly describe it as freeing the physical gold of all paper constraints and promoting it to the wealth asset par excellence. You can read more about this process here: http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/12/gold-ultimate-un-bubble.html It is just an example, prof. Fekete, Jim Sinclair and many others believe this precise thing is going to happen, eventually.
I am not particularly well acquainted with the technical data on on the greek debt so I dare not to give a timeline of this "prognosis". (That is, when will be Greece refused to be funded anymore or when servicing their debt will become a insurmountable. It might not be that far ahead though.) I imagine, however, that gold being used as a collateral for greek loans does not necessarily need to trigger the re/de-monetization of gold. For one thing, in this collateral gold can be always valued "at market prices" and I am personally inclined to believe this will be the case. So much for the greek wealth, then. They will get "a deal of their lifetime"! (Please note the irony :-) )
However, I think you are absolutely correct that this process of recognizing gold as "something valuable", as "gee we better take hold of it too" is precisely what gold re/de-monetizations means! There even seem to be first "golden" shoots of this process in wider markets, for example http://www.risk.net/energy-risk/news/1559062/cme-accepts-gold-collateral-trades . You see, ECB and many other giants recognize this. Many wise men are patiently waiting for this moment you mentioned to happen while the "investors" sell their gold for "high prices", try to earn "profits" and/or cling to their precious paper wealth.
How far we are from a total run on paper I dare not guess - but it will be a spectacular show to watch indeed!
Kind regards,
mhhe
Deleted a double post.
Greek ego. They will walk.
I admire the Greeks for playing hard ball with the ECB unlike us Dorks in Ireland - we have made some sacrifices for the German savers but if they ask us to bleed again then I think our best option is to leave and recreate some currency linked to sterling , alas we have no sovereignty left as the goverment in Dublin has given all its power to Frankfurt
The strange political atmosphere here is a product of the power illusion in Dublin - Trichet runs this place period
Fuck the Greeks. They wanted to wade in the tall grass with the big dogs, and don't appreciate the smell of the piss when they're up to their ears. They lied for membership, hiding their budget woes in defense expenses, calling it a national security issue what with Turkey and all. That was back in what, 81? They continue to lie to this day! You admire the greeks? Fuck man, their lies threaten to lay waste to the currency you and I live by.
You say Ireland has made sacrifices for the German savers. Just in passing, what's in Frankfurt? Ireland's bankers have fucked you all over, period. Like Iceland. Same thing, only different silly accents. You all should be thanking god for the "German saver". Hey, you all supported the nazis back in the 30's. What the fuck? At least now it's not being shoved down your throats! And if you really think that tying yourselves to the pound sterling is wise, well, why the fuck am I even talking to a moron like you? You don't know shit!
I like your colourful writing style APC , tell me do you drive your Armoured vehicle to the local supermarket.
Now where do I start - ah yes the question of national sovereignty -I have no doubt that the Greek goverment are grossly corrupt alas like my own ,but if you believe in a clear chain of command there first priority is to those they represent so therefore what happens in Frankfurt should be of secondary interest to them. A capable goverment should be able to negotiate a lasting deal that would be in both their interests. Also I myself did not vote for this currency but I accept the will of the people to give away their liberty.
As for the 1930s this little country was fighting a economic war of survival when the commomwealth of which Ireland was still a member engaged in a trade war - if we buckled then our independence would have been a very short experiment rather then just a short experiment.
During the war we remained independent (kind of) but on the side of the allies in terms of releasing allied prisoners while holding Axis prisoners etc etc
Some of us still understand the power of London and indeed Rome to change events in their favour and events in the 1950s came to a head where we either accepted independent poverty or wealthy serfdom - we choose the latter and now we have neither.
You open your comment with your respect for the Greek's playing hardball with the ECB. That's a laugh! More like the ECB making hardball noises toward the Greeks, if you ask me. And so they should, although there's something to be said about due diligence. A monetary union before institutional reform was, is and always will be a mistake.
Should the Greeks follow the Irish example, and tighten belts, then ok, whatever. But the wooden horse at the gates worked once, and should not be allowed to work again. They lied then, they're lying now. So I say cut em loose. Leave the euro? Fuck em. Throw em out!
Look, I live in France. Sarko is running an 8-9% deficit. The rules allow for 3! You think the "German saver" should have to cover the french also? And when it all sours, (and sour it will), should we be blaming "Frankfurt"? The City, maybe, (and don't get me going on the brits) but lets be easy on the krauts, no?
Listen, we're not talking about Icelanders being asked to cover the losses of their bankers.
You touch on the central problem of the European Project - none of us knows for sure who runs the place - there is no clear chain of command and if you ask me nobody has the authority to speak for Europe.
For example we do not Know who instructed the Irish Goverment to Bail out the bank bond holders - was it corrupt Irish Bankers or the Germans or upa lumpas, I have no idea, all I do know is that the Irish goverment is too stupid to act on its own initiative and was following orders and I find this unacceptable
During the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007 I began to transfer my money out of banks and into Irish goverment debt as we had a low debt ratio - it also gave me a sense of Patriotism but to be honest it was a chiefly a selfish decision.
By the spring/summer of last year it became obvious that the Irish goverment would socialise the debt beyond the temporary guarantee they gave for 2 years - after that I got out of most paper assets.
Also I learned that the Rothschild bank themselves have taken over as "advisor" from either Merrill lynch or Morgan Stanley(I cannot now find the article on the Sunday Business Post)
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark here , the goverments are following orders from a higher authority that I cannot see
You can not see, yet you mention them in your post,..yes they hide in plain sight our grand old masters!
http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scplps/ecblwp10.pdf
Not quite as simple as just walking away, even if they wanted to.
Between real sovereigns there is no law only understandings - Europe is still a tribal society in its gut despite the best efforts of our betters to civilise us - the elite can only push so far and they know it , ask Leo
It's funny how Gold keeps plunging only during CRIMEX sessions.
Yeah, it doesn't matter that the biggest economy on earth is way beyond bankrupt; let's focus on f--king Greece.
+100
....so many diversionary tactics available, so many to choose from.
i'm thinking North Korea is due again.....
You gotta make everything wrong so that theres no clear right pathway out of it. It's like a 7 layer kevlar wrong vest.
As far as I am concerned, Euro is just another fiat currency. Gyrations among them do not interest me and are meaningless since they can be created out of thin air and manipulated at will. Gold cannot be. All we are witnessing in Gold is CRIMEX driven "bucket shop drives" (as Jesse Livermore called them). That's what the US "financial system" is - one giant bucket shop.
The Euro has 15% Gold reserves. The Archetects of the Euro knew the COMEX would go bust one day and that Gold would be set free! When Gold is set free from the Paper Gold manipulation, currencies structured like the Euro will trade side by side with Gold. Gold will be "Wealth Par Excellence" meant for savings and the Euro will be for transactions. When Gold is finally set free, the Euro will soar because of its structure and the Dollar will collapse!
fofoa.blogspot.com fofoa.blogspot.com fofoa.blogspot.com fofoa.blogspot.com fofoa.blogspot.com fofoa.blogspot.com
Regardless of what happens in Greece, Euro is heading to 122 by year-end.
So, the ECB could provide a pop to the Euro by lowering interest rates and other central banks could create new quantitative easy programs (Japan) or sell more of their own currency (Sweden).
Is there anything else that could cause the Euro to turn around violently before 1.34?
hey, what if Greece took Leo's advice and just bought all the dips? wouldn't that solve their debt problem?
What they *should* have done is followed the GS model and bought all their own CDS. Hey, maybe they did! It's like one of those ancient Greek comedies: you know the one, Aristophanes' /The Producers/.
Macro funds are behind this move, like Soros breaking the Bank of England on the Pound. But these hedgies better be careful, they have no idea who they're fucking with. Elladara!!!!
Macro funds are behind this move, like Soros breaking the Bank of England on the Pound. But these hedgies better be careful, they have no idea who they're fucking with. Elladara!!!!
Macro funds or not, one thing is sure:
EU will bail out Greece. You can see each day comments from EU officials saying they won't, but that's as much BS as if Obama would say they won't bail out California. Probably one shpild even buy greek stocks in what has become the biggest socialism of all times !
Nothing is more sure of happening than when it has been officially denied.
From the ECB's point of view surely there's no reason to throw Greece out of the Euro before, at the minimum, seeing what the IMF can do to to recapitalise and force cuts?
"we think the likelihood of this action is increasing proportionally to the number of times this possibility is refuted."
Isn't this like Moore's law or something? It was certainly true for the banks.
joining the euro isnt like joining a club ,where you can be expelled. its like going to prison where you just get punished more for non compliance.
the ecb will make sure they stay in.
can you imagine the pressure on a us state if they wanted to leave the union. can you imagine the feds kicking out california. i doubt it.
They should boot Greece but they won't. The Germans sure don't want a bunch of currency devalued exporters dumping goods in their market. Greece is the EU's Lehman Brothers and they are well aware the contagion it would spread. The IMF will probably be called in and make then take their medicine.
The New York banks financially destabilized the world and bankrupted western europe in the 1930's. The New York banks financed and armed Stalins Red Army which declared war on europe. so New York is at it again. Nothing new here folks- as long as you have been a student of history. I assure you soros, Goldman, JP, AIG are heavily involved in the Greek sitiation.
Maybe AIG sold Greece CDS to the Greek government at 50bps? So, nothing to worry about, it is all covered....
Didn't Soros demand EU-Bonds recently ? I think this is part of the scheme...another way to fleece Germany again.
EU is one big clusterpluck which screwed most of the members and created 80,000+ bureaucratic jobs in Brussels. I mean they even have someone measuring the length of bananas to make sure they meet EU standards? Now what sort of operation is that??
Greece - your on your own, good luck.
Clustered....check.
Phucked....check.
Greece? Whats the big deal?
Another domino, that is all.
What this means though, is that the EZ is starting to go, and when the EZ starts to go, UnGreat Britain goes (this spring), and then Japan goes (next fall), and then the US goes (March 2011). This of course should come full circle with the EZ being the last one to submit to the IMF and World Bank (Summer 2011). When I say goes I mean merely defaulting on debt or devaluing currency (one in the same I guess). That is all, nothing big. Go back to sleep, worker drones.
Mr Lennon Hendrix is correct in the overall, there's some steps along the way left to the imagination of the reader, and the time line may not be that compressed, but overall, I'd say that's about the order of events that will lead up to a US default as I've been saying for a long time. I think that's the ultimate plan, an all out complete economic emergency (Currency Crisis!) that will require rather drastic peace keeping measures here in the states.
-MobBarley
While the comments (and actually to a lesser degree, the articles) on ZH and FOFA et. al. make fascinating reading, I think the point often missed is that this whole game has so many variables, so many many variables (geo-politic/politick/real-politic/social/historical/known-historical/actual (whatever that is)-historical/cultural...you get the drift), that any discussion on these issues can only capture/en-lighten micro-trends. Micro-trends in a massively rigged game at that.
Still, fascinating reading.
As an aside, is mhhe Another, friend of Another or merely copying their style?
Mmhhhhhhhh..... fascinating.
Here in India, the masses are being led, cluelessly, to their demise.
The end game though, is definitely nigh....
Fun!
I can only concurr with one broad opinion on this board: what is happening in Greece will result in more integration, not disintegration of the EU superstructure.
Greece will not be kicked out but brought even more within the authority of the EU.
I absolutely do not share the vision on gold and stuff. If gold was the key to sovereignty, it will be known by now.