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Greece Deterioration Hits Nitrous: IMF, EU, ECB Find Greek Plan €4.8 Billion Short
Greeks just can't catch a break. Market News reports that a "joint report drafted by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank finds that the calculations contained in Greece's budget plan falls €4.8 billion short of what is needed to meet its deficit cutting objective this year" according to senior Greek government officials. Well, our RBS spin-unadjusted take on this data is bearish to quite bearish for the country's Moody's downgrade prospects, which is the gating factor to utter and total chaos once the GGB are no longer accepted as collateral by the ECB. Not to mention Greece's bond issuance propensity (but anonymous government sources have said about 50 times this week the.bond.is.getting.done), and its Bund spread, which at last check was set to probe recent record wides. In the meantime there is no bank run, repeat NO BANK RUN in Greece.
And for the benefit of a presumably budget conscious RBS (which just paid itself the same amount in billions as it just cost taxpayers in Q4, somewhere north of $1 billion), here is the balance of the Market News release:
The report asserts that the Greek government is underestimating its debt service payments for this year by E1 billion and is too optimistic in estimating that it can generate an additional E1.2 billion of revenue by cracking down on tax evasion, the sources said.
It also says that Greece will not get as much funding from the EU budget as it projects.
As MNI reported earlier Thursday, Greece has already signed onto E3.5 billion in additional budget cuts and tax hikes to try and plug the gap. However, a top official at the Greek finance ministry said the government will not try to produce the extra E1.3 billion that would be required, for fear of social unrest and of "strangling the economy."
In any event, the E4.8 billion discrepancy detailed in the report is not necessarily the final and definitive figure, a senior finance ministry source said. The European Commissioner for Monetary and Economic Affairs, Olli Rehn, is expected in Athens Monday to discuss the report and the alleged discrepancy.
Rehn said in Brussels earlier today that he expected to see the report on Friday.
We are looking forward to seeing just how the much anticipated amicable resolution which RBS is so eagerly predicting, unravels.
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Tonight we dine in rating agency hell!
Ironically, those Spartans had mostly contempt for what we view as money or currency.
I absolutely love the fact that "Nitrous" is used both as an accelerant (technically an oxidizer for internal combustion or rocket engines) as well as an anesthetic (laughing gas) that puts people to sleep. Sometimes I have to laugh at Nature's joke on humans.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrous_oxide
Talk about stupid - as kids we'd go race our nitrus cooled 240 Z's around the neighborhood then come into the basaement and get high as shit on the stuff. Maybe that is what is wrong with me today. At least I can say we had one hell of agood time.
Judging from the "Datsun 240Z" reference (yes folks, that's what they called Nissan before it was Nissan) you and I are about the same age. I've often thought that our generation was the first that had access to some incredible technology without the experience (aka "smarts") to know what was really dangerous. Add in some underdeveloped frontal lobes and the situation was ripe for disaster. The fact that "we" survived our youth with all this unregulated technology is a testament to our luck. It certainly wasn't my brains that saved my ass on countless occasions.
http://www.conceptcarz.com/vehicle/z8205/Datsun-240Z.aspx
LMAO - We had it so good. We could screw anything, DUI's did not exist and many other positives. A helmet. WTF was a helmet for except football? Kids today are so screwed. Big brother is coming down on all of us.
Yeah, and my generation grew up with AIDS, the war on drugs, pervasive surveillance and absent parents. We hate you.
Yeah, well, tough shit...LOL. (sorry, couldn't resist)
On the other end, had a Datsun B210 (Honeybee), a true beer can with a 4 speed. Lots of milage with no safety. Owned about 2 months. POS
The Datsun 240Z was not much better. But it was Japan's first real effort to produce (for America) an affordable sports car for the masses. It was Japan's version of the Austin Healy Sprite I owned, only with much better electrics and a stronger engine. They all rusted through in 3-5 years if you lived in the north and any bumpy road brought out all the rattles and knocks. But they were still more reliable than a lot of the Detroit iron of that era.
BTW, if you owned that Honeybee today in decent condition (particularly of you had it in the yellow and black paint job) you would have a collectors item on your hands.
Sprites and MG Midgets. Then on to the Opel GT -- hooked. End of journey.
I too had a lime green B210. Cheap to fix and drive. Easy to push start when the battery died. Holes in the floor board. My girl friend (future wife) was impressed that I could control the car without functioning breaks. Kept it until the front shock mounting rusted through and the chassis fell. Kids these days are wimps.
"Kids these days are wimps."
Yeah! I didn't even have functioning A/C in my car until I was 40 and I had to walk 10 miles through 6 foot high snow drifts to my first job as CEO. :>))
Just take a look at shares prices of all canadian banks going up all the time and you will laugh more, they "make" money in any conditions! Now the world can come down in smoke and they will rise anyway, thanks to canadian government and skillful propaganda, they must milk their own artificial cows.
I had most of my money in Canadian banks, I bailed and now I am shorting them, so far I am even on that but they lost their shirts in 08
Hilarious Cog.
BTW, it looks like the fractal equivalent panned out as expected.
jc
John,
Since your comment yesterday about "fractal equivalent" my brain has been working overtime. Sometimes it takes one small comment for the mind to push through a logjam. While I've always been aware of and even looked for fractals in nature and in the "products" of humans, the "equivalent" part was a real eye opener for me. For some reason, it really opened my mind to all kinds of secondary and tertiary applications.
Thanks!
I musta missed that one. Explain?
Yesterday John used the term "fractal equivalent" when talking about reading charts. I asked him to explain, which he did, and which I took as his looking for repeating patterns and FIB points.
His use of that term sparked my brain in other ways. I know fractals well, having studied them, but for some reason his usage of the "equivalent" term lit a fire in me.
The guy has elaborated on fractals from EW point of view (no affiliation): http://fdralloveragain.blogspot.com/
Yep, I love his blog.
Ah.
If you want another metaphor, try "re-entrant coding".
The financial system is fractal because it is re-entrant. The former is a manifestation of the latter.
In re-entrant coding your function calls itself, over and over, until it finds a halt condition and then it propagates "halt" all the way back up the re-entrant thread. If it doesn't halt, it runs until eat eats the entire universe (which fortunately is limited to the memory and storage space of the hardware it is running on.)
All kinds of seriously weird things emerge from re-entrant code, and it can be viciously difficult to debug. But it is often the best possible tool to manage certain kinds of problems that retrace themselves.
It is the best way to simulate living systems and to make thing from no-thing.
The financial system is one huge re-entrant coded function and it's been running that way for about 500 years. Outputs become inputs and it eats it's own shit, changing only slowly.
You see Fib sequences. They are the tracks. The financial system is alive. It is eating the universe. I'm not at all sure what the physical limits are.
cougar
I have found accusations of nazism to be an effective negotiating technique. Perhaps it could work for Greece;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7309861...
Tyler, it might be easier for you to simply post up anecdotal stories and reference accounts of what occurred in Argentina and/or the USSR in order to keep your content "fresh & current" with minimal effort.
Trust me, no one will notice the difference if you just use a global search & replace function to substitute the words Greece, Spain, Italy, UK, and eventually the USA, for Argentina and/or USSR.
I think one of the best encapsulations of what is happening (soon, on a global basis) is captured perfectly in this exchange in The Emperor's New Groove:
[Kuzco and Pacha are tied to a tree branch floating in a river]
Pacha: Uh-oh.
Kuzco: Don't tell me. We're about to go over a huge waterfall.
Pacha: Yep.
Kuzco: Sharp rocks at the bottom?
Pacha: Most likely.
Kuzco: Bring it on.
"As God is my witness, I swear I thought turkeys could fly..."
-Arthur Carlson
They can fly.
Especially in a strong wind...
That episode brings a smile to this old man. For those out there who don't understand the reference, please see below.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_WKRP_in_Cincinnati_episodes#.22Turkeys_Away.22_.2810.2F30.2F78.29
they can.
The WKRP Thanksgiving episode reference is a stroke of genius and made my day!
Absolutely King Dollar rules.
For now.
Love the Greek anti-Nazi fingerpointing. The Guns of Navarone being broadcast tonight all over Greece.
Dear Tyler, RBS (Robber Bank of Scotland) also found some consolation in moving into new US HQ (they have probably been very successful in cost-saving as well so they could save some money for this)
"Bailed-Out UK Bank Unveils Flagship US HQ"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35455899/site/14081545
This whole article is so EXCITABLE.
The Greeks and EU/ECB are posturing for an impasse, so the USFed will bail out the PIIGS. Everyone wins! The Greeks win, the other PIIGS win, the EU core wins, and Americans don't care! Because America cannot audit the FED, and will never know that the FED bailed out Greece. Americans will contentedly sip beer watching ESPN, while their currency erodes beneath them.
Right, and America shouldn't care as long as it holds a magic World's Credit Card with NO-Limit set on it...
It occurs to me that if you want to determine whether the Fed will bail out Greece, you need only determine the amount of real, unhedged exposure of US banks. Goldman, for instance, of course has absolutely no exposure, just like with AIG.
Time to pull another GS....
This time the fee doubles to $200 million....
For taking all the public heat....
Make it $300 million....
There is just so much heat....
After all GS is effective....and the IMF and others are not....
It's their own fault for bringing up Nazi gold. Seriously, if the Germans are bailing you out, why would you bring up Nazi gold ?!
> Well, our RBS spin-unadjusted take on this data is bearish to quite bearish for the country's Moody's downgrade prospects, which is the gating factor to utter and total chaos once the GGB are no longer accepted as collateral by the ECB.
Am I misunderstanding something, or is Greece likely to be caught by the scheduled tightening of the ECB's collateral requirements well before Moody's downgrades it?
http://www.paulhastings.com/assets/publications/1471.pdf?wt.mc_ID=1471.pdf
I presume that the rush for a big bond issue is partly to beat the March 1 (2010) deadline?
Maybe the Greeks can just strike some more--yeah, that'll scare us!
Pathetic--nothing worse than a loser who won't admit he has lost...
Not pathetic. The Greek people are pissed that their elected reps have secretly boosted their debts to unpayable levels, and now the bill has come due. The American people are going to do the same, as they realize their elected reps have done the same, and screwed us all. Thanks, Big Bro!
Sorry--gotta call bullshit. The Greek public was absolutely complicit in the development of their present predicament: featherbedded public "jobs", widespread tax evasion, etc.
Lazy and dishonest is a hell of a way to go through life, but somehow they managed it on a grand scale...
[Lazy and dishonest]
Gah! You just blew yourself out of the water. Wasn't worth it. Not around here.
Sign Of The Times?
Dubai Aquarium Springs A Leak
http://gulfnews.com/gntv/news/dubai-aquarium-springs-a-leak-1.588565
This is a discussion about the BIS Nuclear Option, which I have not heard in other discussions. A great read. It's around the 4th page if you print it.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2010-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-08%...
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