As Greece Embarks On The Road To Hades, Here Is How To Trade The European Implosion

Tyler Durden's picture

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Mercury's picture

Viegas has released a note explaining not only why Greece has just passed the Rubicon...

The Styx really...there's no re-crossing that one either!

Double down's picture

You can, but you have be rather special and it helps to be artistically inclined:)

 

Oh, and never look back

 

Bananamerican's picture

yea, charlie sheen could totally do the Styx!

dearth vader's picture

Bouts of eloquence... is this a literary blog?

bob_dabolina's picture

There is a guy on these boards whom claims that socialism and public unions have done wonders for Europe...

Where is that guy?

Shell Game's picture

He's busy re-arranging deck chairs..

Eally Ucked's picture

You know what, they still can get down from 35 days holidays, tighten down their medical programs and few other social programs when there is real need. What about you? 2 days vacations, 2k/mth bills for medical and fighting with unions? Massage Ben ass to print more so you can keep your standard of living, whatever it is.

MachoMan's picture

Like hell they can...  this is about as academic of an argument as I have ever seen...  PEOPLE HAVE GOTTEN USED TO DOING NOTHING.  They start adding hours every week or taking away vacation time and they're throwing molotov cocktails like there's no tomorrow.  They have fighting with unions too, it's just that the whole damn country is a union...

Where do you think fosters more capital investment?

Eally Ucked's picture

You see you even won't have free time to throw molotovs.

"Where do you think fosters more capital investment?" - don't understand Q but I understand that answer supposed to be - USA with 220 bln$ deficit in Feb.

MachoMan's picture

Presuming you have a job...  our labor participation rate is pretty ugly...  especially for our yoots.

Azannoth's picture

Socialism and unions have done wonderfully for those who bought gold/silver early, thx suckers !

Calmyourself's picture

He is over on the Japan thread, explaining how GW is real science and the Chicago Carbon Credit exchange is not closed down just taking a breather..

Wannabee's picture

He is also telling everyone not to worry about over heating reactors; nuclear like coal is clean.

NOTW777's picture

look at euro 1375 to 1390 in a flash

pazmaker's picture

yep, and the RSI on the 5 min, 15 min and 30 min chart is showing the EUR/USD as overbought but it continues to go up!

TheGreatPonzi's picture

"short Spanish and Italian cash bonds"

I'd gladly do it if the entry ticket was not several billion euros. 

Even Interactive Brokers does not propose sovereign bonds. 

alien-IQ's picture

time to declare the USD a natural disaster?

99er's picture

Was this whirlpool off Japan's coast the ominous sign for Europe?

http://www.rawstory.com/rawreplay/2011/03/what-massive-whirlpool-forms-o...

It's a small world.

plocequ1's picture

What? No mention of " The Taxpayer"?

treemagnet's picture

.....those damn unions!  Oh, sorry.  Did I say that outloud?

MarkTwainsMustache's picture

Good luck finding a repo desk to repo some Italian and Spanish cash bonds...

Plainview's picture

I'd prefer to short the Spanish and long the Italian. The Italian economy is simply not in as bad shape as the other four PIGS.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I cannot understand why Trichet does not put the entire M1 on the Euro balance sheet and recognize reality.

It must be fear of the German reaction more then worry for the US dollar ability to defend Europe.

But who really knows the mind of a central banker.

falak pema's picture

Angela Merkel. But she has a different agenda. Its complicated, playing at being Bismarck and..Atlas european.

ATM's picture

The German's biggest fear is inflation. They've had real inflation in their history whereas most of the rest of the Western countries had not experienced it. We've had depressions and our banksters like the Bernenk do everything to try to ward that off while the germans fear the next Weimar.

Doesn't matter, we're all fucked.

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Only in a Banana Republic like the good ol' USA, could the stock market finish up on a day like this. If you are unfortunate to hail from the good ol' USA, you should be deeply ashamed of that blight on humanity you call a country...

... you see the corruption daily, clear as day, and yet you sit there doing nothing to change it.

jimijon's picture

I think you meant "Bernanka Republic"

Bananamerican's picture

no, this land is MY land....

Calmyourself's picture

Where is this bastion of justice and fair play in which you reside?

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

no thanks, not taking responsibility for government evil doers

Leo Kolivakis's picture

State finances collapsed in the first two months of the year, creating a fiscal black hole reaching 1.15 billion euros.

According to figures released by the Finance Ministry on Friday, revenues have fallen short while expenditure has overshot the mark, forcing the government to look into adopting further measures to save this year’s budget.

Revenues in the January-February period were 865 million euros off the target set by the Finance Ministry.

In comparison with the same period a year earlier, revenues were 9.2 percent lower, with the ministry blaming the differences on last year’s boost in road tax which was not repeated, fewer contributions from a one-off tax imposed on companies and less revenues from salary earners.

What is unusual is that the ministry had not set lower targets due to the anticipated revenue drop connected to these three reasons.

****

Meanwhile, Prime Minister George Papandreou heads into a meeting of eurozone leaders in Brussels on Friday afternoon aiming to convince his counterparts that Greece should be given improved terms for its 110-billion-euro loan package.

traderjoe's picture

Are you still bullish on Greek bonds? 

Austerity doesn't work. Revenues will continue to decline. The 'no pay' campaign will bite further. 

Greece will have to default. Better to do it sooner, and get it over with. I hope it's a total default though, and not some negotiated re-structuring. 

RoRoTrader's picture

Nice to see you again, Leo and always appreciate your informed insights.

Already short the IBEX35 and looking to sell into rallies so was wondering how you might play this situation?

Thanks as always. Hope to meet you someday.

The Axe's picture

good luck trying to get that trade on,,,Paulson maybe....please not a shot in hell-or hades

pazmaker's picture

Maybe the dog and pony show in Brussels today is propping up the EUR

The Axe's picture

another low for the dollar--another low volume melt-up for the computer driven ponzi

hambone's picture

Anybody explain how the 2yr Greek bond is 4% higher return than their 10yr (12.8% vs. 17%, respectively)???

If 2yr paper is mega high risk and requires 17% to incent buyers, 10yr is less risky and only requires 13% to excite buyers???

bob_dabolina's picture

Simple.

10yr paper is radiated by beams of sunshine and backed by jaguar blood. The low supply of jaguars make them more valuable.

-Ben Bernanke

hambone's picture

LOL - awesome.  I don't think there could be a better answer.

 

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Get those two golden coins for the boatman, Greece.

The boatman only takes real money, not any fiat shit.

citta vritti's picture

copper or bronze will have to do

william the bastard's picture

How to trade Greece and Spain?

Short the bonds!

Genius, sheer genius Holmes!

A Man without Qualities's picture

Privatizations of state owned businesses are somewhat complicated by the fact there are all sorts of hidden liabilities/ losses.  There's all sorts of nasties, hidden loans to the government (in exchange for cash flows to keep the bills paid), unaccounted for pension obligations, derivatives that don't need to be market to market.  If there was a chance in hell they could sell these things, they would have done it years ago as they never miss a chance to flog anything that's not nailed down.  

I've worked on a deals with a couple of these Greek state owned enterprises and they are so far from being viable going concerns it's not even funny.

EconomyPolitics's picture

Short Spanish and Italian CDS?  

The whole European contagion thing should in my opinion stop after Portugal.  CDS spreads on both are way off their highs while portugal is very close.  

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CSPA1U5:IND

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CITLY1U5:IND

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CPGB1U5:IND

To be quite honest I think a better strategy would be a spread play of shorting Portugal and going long on Italy. 

Spain is a wildcard as their cajas need recapitalization and it is estimated to be between 40-120 BB Euros to get them solvent.  While markets think that they are going to stay solvent, it all depends on how severe the cajas crisis is and wether or not Spain will bail them out (OK everyone knows they will).

 

 

firstdivision's picture

Wow, we're up 1% today and rightfully so with a day full of good, positive news all day.