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Greece Is Now Riskiest Country In The World, 50% Cumulative Default Probability
With its CDS at 875, today, Greece is riskier than dictatorical (but Fed Free) Venezuela and perpetually bankrupt Argentina. All the hedge funds who went long Greek bonds with or without protection are getting destroyed. And some very prominent names did. We are waiting for the latest HSBC report to confirm this.
Country Spread CPD
- Greece: 874.22 50.66
- Venezuela: 841.28 44.57
- Argentina: 832.50 43.17
- Pakistan: 708.40 38.22
- Ukraine: 601.41 34.24
And looking at the contagion effect, these are the countries that are widening the most today. Might be time for the IMF to bail out Dubai again.
- Saudi Arabia: 77.68 +11.63
- Emirate of Abu Dhabi: 112.17 9.70
- Lebanon: 297.43 +25.49
- Croatia: 241.58 +19.75
- Romania: 268.21 +19.79
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So will Europe be punished by having to face the facts first and be forced to come to terms with austerity? Will they come to aid of the USA when we have to come to terms with austerity?
we are Greece we are the world - now hold hands kids..damn how cynical I have become.
And because the biggest hedge funds are invested I would bet our government and the IMF (is there a difference?) are going to find a short-term solution that lets these hedge funds get out whole.
The French banks are taking it Greek style.....
Why Greece Will Default
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/feldstein22/English
El Erian on Greece (CNBS warning)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1477966146&play=1
WE'RE NUMBER 1!
WE'RE NUMBER 1!
WE'RE NUMBER 1!
Oh wait. That's not a good thing ...
No, there is 100% of default probability. All these system come down eventually, been since the very beginning of civilization.
60-80 years or a generation or so and the system starts collapsing on itself.
Mr. Whitney seems to agree with you:
http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney04272010.html
He seems to indicate that if you regulate entities correctly that the system will not collapse. That is the lie.
"The reforms which are now being debated in the congress, (Too big to fail, off-balance sheet operations, derivatives trading, securitization) miss the larger point. Regulators must have the authority to intervene WHEREVER they think it is necessary to ensure that institutions are adequately capitalized, that lending standards are strictly upheld and that credit production is carefully monitored by trained government supervisors."
Eventually you will not be able to expand at the rate needed which MUST grow exponentially. It doesn't matter what the government does or doesn't do, it will collapse... humans would have to have unlimited power.
Yes, he is correct that the system has flawed architecture but not for the reasons he specifies. The credit system MUST expand exponentially or it starts to collapse... it started to collapse in 2007 and it is still collapsing, slowest trainwreck ever. See Federal Reserve Z1 report... credit expansion has been negative for a year, you are already in the black hole, there is no out, there is only in.
In 2007 credit was expanding at a $4.7T rate, now it's negative, you can't pay on $53T of debt with negative credit expansion, which is why the call it a death spiral.
http://www.armfa.com/blog_images/debt_1952_segment.JPG
Sheesh - it must suck to be considered more "risky" than a crazy-land like Pakistan.
I'm sure this is bullish. Somehow.
And US futures continue to soar
A terrific buying opportunity. Stocks are on sale this morning. I expect all shorts to cover by 9:35.
The liberal welfare state model is unravelling as a viable economic system.
EUROS AND ICARUS
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/04/euros-and-icarus.html
The VAGs (Venezuela, Argentina, Greece) are really getting pounded this morning.
+100 best acronym yet.
I understand Uncle Ben has already started buying up shares of Greece ala AIG and plans to pay 100 cents on the dollar for the outstanding debt.
Yep, I posted this last night in the "I Am The U.S. Taxpayer" story Tyler ran yesterday. The default so far includes about 10 countries hovering the 50% default factor. Just a matter of time.
I don't understand how $45 Billion bailout helps Greece anyway? That barely covers the interest payements on their bonds they have already sold. Seems like all of our leaders are ecleptic morons.
or may be puppets of a RUTHLESS AND MONOLITHIC CONSPIRACY ...:)
They must feel like fucking champions beating Chavez in the retard race!
Chavez is a democratically elected President. The election was certified by Amnesty Int., as I recall.
Bush the 3rd is more of a dictator than is Chavez.
Why do all the business major/economic types insist on referring to Chavez as a "dictator"?
Is it just Allende without the U.S. assassination?
Is it just that it's difficult to accept that a guy running on a socialist platform can be elected?
Pre-Chavez oil majors were sucking the gross lion's share of the oil wealth out of that country, with no benefit to the population. Post Chavez, no.
Socialism is a disease, no doubt, but the corporate sovereign sodimization that was occurring before the Socialism was a worse disease.
Eventually something is going to be Too Big To Bail Out ( TBTBO ). Not Greece, Not Portugal, maybe Spain, and for sure Europe is TBTBO. Only solution then is default, restructure, and inflation.
How does one go about calculating CPD, seems like a very interesting stat to track over time