Whether or not large nations actually go bankrupt, one thing is clear . . . Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner and their foreign counterparts have failed ...
Very quiet, boring day today. Keeping an eye on the European banks and the resilient semiconductors. If the girls can get themselves out of rehab and the banks cen get something going, then a reaction rally might be due. Otherwise, its back to "Risk Revulsion and Convulsion".
But abu dhabi stepped the last time this dubai thing was going to erupt in 2008, for those who had short memories like the folks here on ZH, that is why this thing never blew up earlier. You think Dubai government would need to ask for standstill had their AD bros across the sand decided to continue supporting them?
This time, the AD emirs know that shit cannot be wrapped in USD swap lines anymore, no banks wanted any shit to do with the Fed's USD. It says alot about the US of A even though its happening in the middle east.
Oh, get ready, some big european banks will be shut down next week and unlike what an earlier headline, it is not HSBC or Stanchart, brothers and sisters.
by MinnesotaNice on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:04 #143279
Nice to see that The State of California is honored among the Top Ten Highest Sovereign Default Probabilities... it shares those honors with Ukraine, Pakistan, Iceland, and Dubai... and they say the recession is over when our third largest state is on that esteemed list... give me a break... double dip here we come.
They also hold over 90% of their reserves in gold, the highest percentage of any central bank in the world. One of the leading figures in the Bank of Greece's history is A. Zolotas, whose family is even better known as goldsmiths.
Soon we won't be looking at the weekly toll of failed banks anymore, instead we will be looking at the weekly collapse of sovereign countries.
Brave new world.
The burning question: Will this be the catalyst for gold to fully decouple from the global fiat asset trash heap? I am sure we will get the answer sometime next week. (btw good luck boys and girls regarding your DEC COMEX delivery)
by Leo Kolivakis on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 15:15 #143343
ZH doomsayers, just keep buying the dips. Don't get all flustered with every negative news item. Next week, markets will skyrocket after US jobs report.
Leo- I think you would agree that the fundamentals of the economy are pretty bad. There has to be a tipping point at some time. Buying the dips works... until it doesn't. What makes you so sure that the status quo, up for no reason market will keep right on marching to the beat of a fairy tale drummer?
Comex will be handing out paper gold IOU's for DEC delivery, the DEC OI will clear out their vault alone, next look at Feb OI ! No way Comex let's any of their physical gold leave the vault, read the fine print.
As America tryptophans out and wakes up weary tomorrow, with half a trading day to "panic out with", this could be very interesting. Looks like nearly "perfect timing" by our financial overlords. Lots of Turkeys (aka Lemmings) getting cooked today.
by Leo Kolivakis on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 16:45 #143438
The timing of this is highly suspect (holiday weekend with low vol). Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are going to make a mint this week...stay tuned as tomorrow you will hear the chorus sing "the sky is falling again" and then by Friday next week it will be "the worst is behind us". Predictable bullshit. BUY THIS DIP!
by Ned Zeppelin on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 22:23 #143589
Leo: who is hiring? I know of no one. I think I see fairly deep into banking, construction, retail, office in the Phiily burbs and I see zip. In fact, it looks bleaker than ever in terms of 2010. So while I admire this the passion, I need evidence of some miraculous comeback in employment - the source and the sustainability.
Now, it occurs to me that the miracle can occur if .gov decides to simply make it up. I'll grant you that.
i think ZH commentators for the most part are naive about sovreign risk and master it little if at all, compared to the goood understanding of corporate risk and, to a much lesser extent, structured credit (including Tylerr and Co).
Ever realized that sovreigns have the monopoly of taxtation and effectively own their country and all its resources??
a) no threat of currency crisis here
b) Greece still has massively untapped taxation recenue, it can squeeze a LOT out of the massive grey undercover economy if it gets serious about that (like Italy)
C)if things get a LOT more serious, the European Union will with probability 1 bail out Greece - there is a snowball's chance in hell that the EU will let Greece default on its debt. That would spark massive contagion and jeopardize the EU's existence
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:47
#143162
Any charts for the swaps on Greece and Ireland?
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:52
#143168
Weakest link of the week?
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:52
#143169
dominos
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:09
#143177
new video from Bloomberg
Loftus Says Abu Dhabi Needs to Prevent Dubai Contagion
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:09
#143189
Guys, I will be at my desk at 6 am tomorrow..
So calm down, I will arrange a 2T swap line with Abudabi first thing in the morning.
SERIOUSLY A MAN CAN'T GET ONE DAY OFF. WHAT A WORLD.
Ben
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:17
#143195
PolishHammer(Jan Sobieski?)
ROFL
Happy T
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 20:00
#143526
But abu dhabi stepped the last time this dubai thing was going to erupt in 2008, for those who had short memories like the folks here on ZH, that is why this thing never blew up earlier. You think Dubai government would need to ask for standstill had their AD bros across the sand decided to continue supporting them?
This time, the AD emirs know that shit cannot be wrapped in USD swap lines anymore, no banks wanted any shit to do with the Fed's USD. It says alot about the US of A even though its happening in the middle east.
Oh, get ready, some big european banks will be shut down next week and unlike what an earlier headline, it is not HSBC or Stanchart, brothers and sisters.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:35
#143207
Is there a free site that allows you to check CDS rates of countries?
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:49
#143220
http://www.cmavision.com/market-data
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:04
#143279
Nice to see that The State of California is honored among the Top Ten Highest Sovereign Default Probabilities... it shares those honors with Ukraine, Pakistan, Iceland, and Dubai... and they say the recession is over when our third largest state is on that esteemed list... give me a break... double dip here we come.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:15
#143295
Last time I checked--California was still the 6th largest economy in the world. Of course that was a while ago but it's still close to it.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:39
#143322
I laughed when I saw "United Mexican States"...is that what the USA is called now?
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 20:08
#143528
united spanish america
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 15:25
#143367
That economy was securitized a long time ago. All that's left is a payment book.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:44
#143331
Except Minnie double-dip suggests you come out of the other side above a flatline... what's that chance? Just askin' :-)
on Fri, 11/27/2009 - 00:39
#143662
Very good point Cat... it is a slow downhill slide from here... wonder if there is a letter in the alphabet to describe that trajectory :-)
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:55
#143225
Greek banks will head lower but at one point, I'd look to buy NBG:
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/11/25/afx7158742.html
Leo
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:35
#143315
I'd wait until the sovereign default is out of the way...
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:47
#143336
That's what I love about you Leo... always the optomist... let's see if "what goes down must come up" ... errrr... or was that the other way around?
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 13:00
#143228
That.....funny.......Greece FIRE!!!
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 13:52
#143263
DXY starting to rise,........
but so is GOLD.
The pieces are in motion.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 13:53
#143265
The Bank of Greece could be interesting as well. As the CB of Greece they own shares in the BIS and ECB (like the National Bank of Belgium).
http://eng.bankofgreece.gr/en/bank/legal_framework.asp
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 15:28
#143371
They also hold over 90% of their reserves in gold, the highest percentage of any central bank in the world. One of the leading figures in the Bank of Greece's history is A. Zolotas, whose family is even better known as goldsmiths.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:05
#143282
tomorrow dow -350
spx -38
nasdaq -57
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:17
#143296
And the dollar will finally bounce...
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:53
#143342
Hooray!
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 17:45
#143478
just for fun, I'll take the over...
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:20
#143299
Soon we won't be looking at the weekly toll of failed banks anymore, instead we will be looking at the weekly collapse of sovereign countries.
Brave new world.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 16:09
#143408
Boy, that's a relief!
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:50
#143333
The burning question: Will this be the catalyst for gold to fully decouple from the global fiat asset trash heap? I am sure we will get the answer sometime next week. (btw good luck boys and girls regarding your DEC COMEX delivery)
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 15:15
#143343
ZH doomsayers, just keep buying the dips. Don't get all flustered with every negative news item. Next week, markets will skyrocket after US jobs report.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 15:53
#143392
Leo, u bullish on the continued liquidity firehose from the fed/govt? u think uncle ben will re-up on QE 2.0? buy another 1.25 trillion of MBS?
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 17:16
#143462
leo is on record several weeks ago in one of his columns that he saw at that time no major events on the horizon.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 16:05
#143402
Killjoy
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 23:56
#143634
Leo- I think you would agree that the fundamentals of the economy are pretty bad. There has to be a tipping point at some time. Buying the dips works... until it doesn't. What makes you so sure that the status quo, up for no reason market will keep right on marching to the beat of a fairy tale drummer?
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 16:18
#143420
Comex will be handing out paper gold IOU's for DEC delivery, the DEC OI will clear out their vault alone, next look at Feb OI ! No way Comex let's any of their physical gold leave the vault, read the fine print.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 16:09
#143406
Ok, I am going to do a little victory lap here.....
Black Swans do not drift in, they are delivered by a cruise missile in the middle of the night, holidays, or on the weekend.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-o...
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/08/mania-c...
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/blow-of...
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/30-year...
As America tryptophans out and wakes up weary tomorrow, with half a trading day to "panic out with", this could be very interesting. Looks like nearly "perfect timing" by our financial overlords. Lots of Turkeys (aka Lemmings) getting cooked today.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 16:45
#143438
The timing of this is highly suspect (holiday weekend with low vol). Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are going to make a mint this week...stay tuned as tomorrow you will hear the chorus sing "the sky is falling again" and then by Friday next week it will be "the worst is behind us". Predictable bullshit. BUY THIS DIP!
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 17:19
#143458
Don't buy before Tuesday, Leo. Machines account for 70%+ of the market now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyToTwag34&feature=related
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 19:19
#143516
That is what investors have been taught.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 22:51
#143595
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhrZXnFSFGQ
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 17:21
#143463
don't you just love it when a plan comes together?
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 20:15
#143530
Asia down, look like the Nikkei wants to go to 9,000,
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=c&c=
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 21:42
#143571
The Nikkei is 12% off its YTD high. Yen/$ is under 86, as if Japanese exporters weren't having a hard enough time already.
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 22:23
#143589
Leo: who is hiring? I know of no one. I think I see fairly deep into banking, construction, retail, office in the Phiily burbs and I see zip. In fact, it looks bleaker than ever in terms of 2010. So while I admire this the passion, I need evidence of some miraculous comeback in employment - the source and the sustainability.
Now, it occurs to me that the miracle can occur if .gov decides to simply make it up. I'll grant you that.
on Fri, 11/27/2009 - 03:47
#143732
leo I hope thats sarcasm, and not hard drugs. a little hard liquor, not so bad
on Fri, 11/27/2009 - 07:26
#143824
don't count on a greek sovreign default guys.
i think ZH commentators for the most part are naive about sovreign risk and master it little if at all, compared to the goood understanding of corporate risk and, to a much lesser extent, structured credit (including Tylerr and Co).
Ever realized that sovreigns have the monopoly of taxtation and effectively own their country and all its resources??
a) no threat of currency crisis here
b) Greece still has massively untapped taxation recenue, it can squeeze a LOT out of the massive grey undercover economy if it gets serious about that (like Italy)
C)if things get a LOT more serious, the European Union will with probability 1 bail out Greece - there is a snowball's chance in hell that the EU will let Greece default on its debt. That would spark massive contagion and jeopardize the EU's existence
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