• asiablues
    02/08/2010 - 20:24
    A look at the relationship between sovereign risk, the price of oil and investment strategy in a possible Financial Crisis 2.0 scenario.
  • George Washington
    02/08/2010 - 17:20
    Whether or not large nations actually go bankrupt, one thing is clear . . . Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner and their foreign counterparts have failed ...
  • RobotTrader
    02/08/2010 - 15:56
    Very quiet, boring day today. Keeping an eye on the European banks and the resilient semiconductors. If the girls can get themselves out of rehab and the banks cen get something going, then a reaction rally might be due. Otherwise, its back to "Risk Revulsion and Convulsion".

Greece Plunges, Stock Market Down 7%+, CDS 20 Wider To 212

Tyler Durden's picture




Contagion effect is spreading as the weakest link in the Eurozone catches fire.

5
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by alexdg
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:47
#143162

Any charts for the swaps on Greece and Ireland?

by bugs_
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:52
#143168

Weakest link of the week?

by depression
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 11:52
#143169

dominos

by AN0NYM0US
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:09
#143177

by PolishHammer
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:09
#143189

Guys, I will be at my desk at 6 am tomorrow..

So calm down, I will arrange a 2T swap line with Abudabi first thing in the morning.

SERIOUSLY A MAN CAN'T GET ONE DAY OFF.  WHAT A WORLD.

Ben

 

 

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:17
#143195

PolishHammer(Jan Sobieski?)
ROFL
Happy T

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 20:00
#143526

But abu dhabi stepped the last time this dubai thing was going to erupt in 2008, for those who had short memories like the folks here on ZH, that is why this thing never blew up earlier. You think Dubai government would need to ask for standstill had their AD bros across the sand decided to continue supporting them?

This time, the AD emirs know that shit cannot be wrapped in USD swap lines anymore, no banks wanted any shit to do with the Fed's USD. It says alot about the US of A even though its happening in the middle east.

Oh, get ready, some big european banks will be shut down next week and unlike what an earlier headline, it is not HSBC or Stanchart, brothers and sisters.

by TomB
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:35
#143207

Is there a free site that allows you to check CDS rates of countries?

by heatbarrier
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:49
#143220

by MinnesotaNice
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:04
#143279

Nice to see that The State of California is honored among the Top Ten Highest Sovereign Default Probabilities... it shares those honors with Ukraine, Pakistan, Iceland, and Dubai... and they say the recession is over when our third largest state is on that esteemed list... give me a break... double dip here we come.

by Howard_Beale
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:15
#143295

Last time I checked--California was still the 6th largest economy in the world. Of course that was a while ago but it's still close to it.

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:39
#143322

I laughed when I saw "United Mexican States"...is that what the USA is called now?

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 20:08
#143528

united spanish america

by JohnKing
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 15:25
#143367

That economy was securitized a long time ago. All that's left is a payment book.

by ZerOhead
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:44
#143331

Except Minnie double-dip suggests you come out of the other side above a flatline... what's that chance? Just askin' :-)

by MinnesotaNice
on Fri, 11/27/2009 - 00:39
#143662

Very good point Cat... it is a slow downhill slide from here... wonder if there is a letter in the alphabet to describe that trajectory :-)

by Leo Kolivakis
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 12:55
#143225

Greek banks will head lower but at one point, I'd look to buy NBG:

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/11/25/afx7158742.html

Leo

by A Man without Q...
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:35
#143315

I'd wait until the sovereign default is out of the way...

by ZerOhead
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:47
#143336

That's what I love about you Leo... always the optomist... let's see if "what goes down must come up" ... errrr...  or was that the other way around?

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 13:00
#143228

That.....funny.......Greece FIRE!!!

by Rusty_Shackleford
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 13:52
#143263

DXY starting to rise,........

 

but so is GOLD.

 

The pieces are in motion.

by Zontar
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 13:53
#143265

The Bank of Greece could be interesting as well. As the CB of Greece they own shares in the BIS and ECB (like the National Bank of Belgium).

http://eng.bankofgreece.gr/en/bank/legal_framework.asp

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 15:28
#143371

They also hold over 90% of their reserves in gold, the highest percentage of any central bank in the world. One of the leading figures in the Bank of Greece's history is A. Zolotas, whose family is even better known as goldsmiths.

by JamesBrrando
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:05
#143282

tomorrow dow -350

spx -38

 

nasdaq -57

by Howard_Beale
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:17
#143296

And the dollar will finally bounce...

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:53
#143342

Hooray!

by reading
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 17:45
#143478

just for fun, I'll take the over...

 

 

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:20
#143299

Soon we won't be looking at the weekly toll of failed banks anymore, instead we will be looking at the weekly collapse of sovereign countries.
Brave new world.

by Assetman
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 16:09
#143408

Boy, that's a relief!

by NRGTDR
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 14:50
#143333

The burning question: Will this be the catalyst for gold to fully decouple from the global fiat asset trash heap? I am sure we will get the answer sometime next week. (btw good luck boys and girls regarding your DEC COMEX delivery)

 

 

 

by Leo Kolivakis
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 15:15
#143343

ZH doomsayers, just keep buying the dips. Don't get all flustered with every negative news item. Next week, markets will skyrocket after US jobs report.

by dumbquant
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 15:53
#143392

Leo, u bullish on the continued liquidity firehose from the fed/govt?  u think uncle ben will re-up on QE 2.0?  buy another 1.25 trillion of MBS?

by deadhead
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 17:16
#143462

leo is on record several weeks ago in one of his columns that he saw at that time no major events on the horizon.

by Pedro
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 16:05
#143402

Killjoy

by the phantom
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 23:56
#143634

Leo- I think you would agree that the fundamentals of the economy are pretty bad.  There has to be a tipping point at some time.  Buying the dips works... until it doesn't.  What makes you so sure that the status quo, up for no reason market will keep right on marching to the beat of a fairy tale drummer?

by depression
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 16:18
#143420

Comex will be handing out paper gold IOU's for DEC delivery, the DEC OI will clear out their vault alone, next look at Feb OI ! No way Comex let's any of their physical gold leave the vault, read the fine print.

by steveo
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 16:09
#143406

Ok, I am going to do a little victory lap here.....

Black Swans do not drift in, they are delivered by a cruise missile in the middle of the night, holidays, or on the weekend.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-o...

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/08/mania-c...

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/blow-of...

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/30-year...

As America tryptophans out and wakes up weary tomorrow, with half a trading day to "panic out with", this could be very interesting. Looks like nearly "perfect timing" by our financial overlords. Lots of Turkeys (aka Lemmings) getting cooked today.

by Leo Kolivakis
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 16:45
#143438

The timing of this is highly suspect (holiday weekend with low vol). Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are going to make a mint this week...stay tuned as tomorrow you will hear the chorus sing "the sky is falling again" and then by Friday next week it will be "the worst is behind us". Predictable bullshit. BUY THIS DIP!

by heatbarrier
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 17:19
#143458

Don't buy before Tuesday, Leo.  Machines account for 70%+ of the market now.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyToTwag34&feature=related

by steveo
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 19:19
#143516

That is what investors have been taught.

by heatbarrier
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 22:51
#143595

by delacroix
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 17:21
#143463

don't you just love it when a plan comes together?

by heatbarrier
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 20:15
#143530

by Green Sharts
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 21:42
#143571

The Nikkei is 12% off its YTD high.  Yen/$ is under 86, as if Japanese exporters weren't having a hard enough time already.

by Ned Zeppelin
on Thu, 11/26/2009 - 22:23
#143589

Leo: who is hiring? I know of no one. I think I see fairly deep into banking, construction,  retail, office in the Phiily burbs and I see zip. In fact, it looks bleaker than ever in terms of 2010.  So while I admire this the passion, I need evidence of some miraculous comeback in employment - the source and the sustainability.

Now, it occurs to me that the miracle can occur if .gov decides to simply make it up.  I'll grant you that. 

by delacroix
on Fri, 11/27/2009 - 03:47
#143732

leo I hope thats sarcasm, and not hard drugs. a little hard liquor, not so bad

by Anonymous
on Fri, 11/27/2009 - 07:26
#143824

don't count on a greek sovreign default guys.

i think ZH commentators for the most part are naive about sovreign risk and master it little if at all, compared to the goood understanding of corporate risk and, to a much lesser extent, structured credit (including Tylerr and Co).

Ever realized that sovreigns have the monopoly of taxtation and effectively own their country and all its resources??

a) no threat of currency crisis here

b) Greece still has massively untapped taxation recenue, it can squeeze a LOT out of the massive grey undercover economy if it gets serious about that (like Italy)

C)if things get a LOT more serious, the European Union will with probability 1 bail out Greece - there is a snowball's chance in hell that the EU will let Greece default on its debt. That would spark massive contagion and jeopardize the EU's existence

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