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Greece Sets 10 Year Bund Spread Level For When Total Pandemonium Breaks Out At 450 bps

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Greek website bankingnews.gr reports that today's breach of 400 bps in spread to bunds on the 10 Year GGB is a very critical level, and that if spread widening continues, Greece "risks completely losing control" of its funding situation. The critical level in the 10 Year GGB spread to bunds beyond which all hell will break loose is 450 bps at which point "everyone will unload bonds and then control will be completely lost." (pardon our translation) Odd - no mention of CDS speculators having blown up Greece today: instead it is bond selling... How novel. The site also notes that while today's actions "should be a reasonable response and should reduce the spread, if that does not happen then Greece will completely lose control and very soon." This is likely the worst mistake that Greece could have done. By giving bond holders a bogey the target spread will become a self-fulfilling prophecy and will likely be breached in a matter of days. In addition, bankingnews.gr reports that 450 is a "milestone in the bond market as it represents a level beyond which the state will not be able to borrow."

A roughly-translated version of the article indicates the following key concerns for Greece:

1) In addition to new shorts, today saw the selling by many long-term investors. The shorts are testing the resolve of the EU and IMF to bail out Greece when funding costs become unacceptable.

2) According to well-informed sources, investors have indicated that a spread of 450 bps or higher will kill any interest in holding any more 10 Years leading to a sell off.

Yet what will a disclosure by Greece be without at least a little scapegoating. Sure enough: "While the spread widening was excessive, there is no plan or mechanism to prevent further widening. The hedge funds and U.S. investment banks have won the battle yesterday by forcing long-term investors to sell." Farewell Germany, old friend, hello America, new favorite scapegoater.

Greece is said to have 3-4 weeks in which it does not need to borrow new debt. Also, today's actions has allegedly not precluded Greece from seeking idiot investors out of the US for US denominated bonds. After today's market action we are convinced some mutual fund will be dumb enough to lend to Greece regardless what terms are put on the table or just how bad the Greek funding situation is. In the meantime, we believe Greece needs to roll several short-term bills. With all near-term debt exploding by several hundred points today, the next stress point may not be the 5-7-10 year part of the curve at all, but the ultra-short term side. And when overnight funding is in jeopardy, together with deposit outflows into stable countries, well, that is the end: even US dumb money may have to finally recognize that sooner or later.

 


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Tue, 04/06/2010 - 20:51 | Link to Comment EllisWyattOTC
EllisWyattOTC's picture

Athens Shruggs?

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:37 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Nice pun!

Athens is sort of the opposite of Atlas, though.  Instead of propping up the world, the world is propping up it.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 03:48 | Link to Comment ignorant
ignorant's picture

articles and opinions by banks running boy doesn't really matter

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 20:57 | Link to Comment TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Iceland’s Debt Rating Is Cut by Moody’s, to Negative

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 09:43 | Link to Comment mikla
mikla's picture

Iceland’s Debt Rating Is Cut by Moody’s, to Negative

I guess that makes sense.  After companies file for bankruptcy, Moody's will cut their rating below AAA.  So, I guess that's the same thing as Moody's waiting until after 93% of Iceland's voters vote "NO" to the IMF eternal indentured servitude to down-rate their debt rating.  (Of course, that was a month ago, so Moody's finally got around to it, huh?)

It's really hard to analyze income and liability streams to compute ability to pay, and come up with a debt rating.  That requires math, pencils, and possibly one of those computerizerator-thingies.  Waiting for bankruptcy filings and explicit sovereign defaults is a *much* easier way to rate institutions.

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:02 | Link to Comment truont
truont's picture

Revealing the yield tipping point? Calling the Germans "racists"? If I didn't know better, I'd say the Greeks WANT a sovereign debt default!

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:12 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Though really how would a default hurt them.  Sure the gov would not be able to borrow anymore but what is the framework for an EU nation to just say "FU! I'm not going to pay my bills!"

They already are going to have to go austerity, a default would be the best way to do it.  Hell they wouldn't even lose their currency, would just be clearing the slate.

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:19 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

There's only one reason why Greece hasn't already defaulted and re-introduced the drachma......pensions.

Telling the Greek public about austerity plans is one thing, telling them their pensions have vanished is another.

Molotov cocktail, anyone?

 

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:25 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

But hear me out.  So you act like a lunatic.  Calling everyone racist, demanding to dictate terms.  Sure you are insane but people are stupid you can spin it that you were trying to get Greece a good deal.  Then of course you don't get the bailout under you insane terms and forced to default as people will not lend to you.

"It wasn't me, it wasn't you!  It was the Germans/French/Americans/Space Aliens!" Now I doubt this is the play.  The leadership is doubtlessly looters so are all for getting a bailout, they just want to get their taste of the action.  I merely point out this scenario because it amuses me, and normally one could not do this because would have their currency absolutely hammered.

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 22:48 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

Could very well be a big game of "chicken".

If they win, they get the loot.

If they lose, they get some rioting to replace football (keeps everyone entertained), and then the gov't goes to an all cash "paygo" system.

Seems surprisingly rational to me, and likely whatever they do will be repeated elsewhere until the whole world is engaged in the new global sport.

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:16 | Link to Comment seventree
seventree's picture

I seriously thought the same thing reading this post. It's like Butch and Sundance after being chased to the cliff ... hold your nose and jump.

"Oh shiiiiiiiit!"

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:00 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

Is the USA economy falling apart by accident?

GS accidentally got rich while our country got poor! Coincidentally many other countries share our fate. And nobody saw it coming.

Its as if it was all done on purpose or all countries got stupid at the same time.

Meanwhile  on Blacklistednews i find we are being sprayed with chemtrail mix. Includes fine aluminum particulates. Oh Hurrah, we can breathe the soup. And we allow it !

Its discouraging that we as a public are being sprayed like vegetables, but then we are that now , arent we?

But then , when do we look up and notice?

Oh yea "hi  America, welcome to ausswich".

I think my anger is showing.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:11 | Link to Comment A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

There may be a method in their madness - they know they are screwed, but if the breaking point is very messy, other nations may fear collateral damage and do more to help.

The pension system is a lurking horror story, though not sure if this is why they haven't defaulted yet.  There are plenty of people involved in the malinvestment of funds, who would be quite happy to see they whole thing collapse, as it would divert attention from the general pilfering of the funds over the years.

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:09 | Link to Comment Bigdaddydvo
Bigdaddydvo's picture

Dead Man Walking...

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 07:14 | Link to Comment jm
jm's picture

Dead man just said "Call" and sometimes nothing is a pretty cool hand.

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:42 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Doesn't posting the 450 bps limit make it a target?

Could the Greeks be trying to game the system again by forcing a bailout?

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:34 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

That's what I was thinking.

Either they have a plan set for some miracle at 500bps and hope it only gets to 450 before they have to whip it out...

or, they are telling the vigilantes, "Here, man, look!  Come and get it." At that point, all hell breaks loose for the Euro.  (Boy, are those days going to be volatile! CHV all day long...)

Either way, these are clearly signs of some desparation on the part of the Greeks, that much is for sure.

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:27 | Link to Comment aus_punter
aus_punter's picture

so in addition to all their other mistakes the Greek treasury wants to short the dollar by issuing in the 144a market...... priceless !

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:46 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

"Gonna Loose Control"

WTF think already happened?
Better than Monty Python

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:50 | Link to Comment Mr.Kowalski
Mr.Kowalski's picture

There comes a point where even the IMF can't help, and Greece is rapidly getting there. If there is a serious selloff of the ten year, lights out. D-Day has arrived, Greece sinks into a grinding depression and goes back to the drachma. They really should've learned from Argentina, but alas..

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 21:53 | Link to Comment KenShabby
KenShabby's picture

OPA!!!

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 22:01 | Link to Comment Rick Blaine
Rick Blaine's picture

Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes.

(Sorry - I couldn't resist...it's one of the few things I remember from high school Latin.)

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 22:04 | Link to Comment deadparrot
deadparrot's picture

I believe Greece knows they will get the most help (IMF and EU funds) if they default early, so that is their goal. All the drama is just to make it look like the crooked politicians have the country's best interests at heart. "Please re-elect us! We worked so hard for you, but the cruel and nasty Germans/bond traders/etc. had it in for us. We're the real victims!!!!"

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 22:05 | Link to Comment Nolsgrad
Nolsgrad's picture

opportunity?

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 22:23 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Subprime nation on a liar loan. Just walk away, you know, like the rich are already doing. Strategic default. It's all the rage. Revolting even.

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:32 | Link to Comment Augustus
Augustus's picture

When they move to the smaller quarters, how will they all fit into Macedonia?

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 22:26 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Where is Buzz Saw? Is this what he means when he keeps saying "blow me?"

http://andrearf.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/nuclear-bomb-explosion.jpg

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 22:37 | Link to Comment Nolsgrad
Nolsgrad's picture

"blow me" is code for I feel the need to post something without value

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:06 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

O dear MsCreant. I fear that is the price we all pay for watching TV. For seeking to satisfy every urge. For wanting more when having much. 

I always felt we as a nation would suffer serious karma for allowing Iraq to happen, and still goes on. So we all pay. Except the culprits. 

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:07 | Link to Comment putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

I am just in awe from today's ZH readings. Absolutely fantastic reporting. I urge everyone to contribute. Wow!

Mr. Obama now wants a VAT tax. Here in CT, they passed a law to tax people (job creators-500k+ earners) to pay more. All those Wall Street guys live here - many are good guys. I hear they will be leaving soon. Oops, just checked - many have left.

Just some musings from shitville. I digress.

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:22 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I heard on the radio today something similar has happened in Maryland, they passed a big tax increase on the Really Really Rich (RRR for Mogambo fans).  And then the RRRs left!  LESS tax money coming in from those greedy millionaires!

Oops!

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 00:05 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Yep, which is why I expect capital control and them to loot people as they are forced to leave the US.  I was not trapped in school I would be packing my bags right now.  Hell I would have dropped but my mom pleaded with me to finish law school...I think she wants to keep bragging right.

The more they tighten the more people will head for the door.  And that's what this country needs, a brain drain and capital flight.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 00:14 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

As you know Shameful, I've kicked around the idea of leaving too (Peru).

But, today at the gun range Mr. Beretta and Mr. Kalashnikov have inspired me to hang on and fight it out.

History does show, however, that when a country institutes an Exit Tax, that is usually the signal to leave.  We now have one.  I have been duly warned.

All of my ancestors have been here in the USA since the mid-1800s or earlier.  I will not let a lefty/crooked system drive me out without a fight.

Unless things get REALLY REALLY BAD!  Then it's the last flight to Lima...       ;-)

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 00:27 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Well I'm not a fighter.  And I have a youth of listening to old folks from the old country and my grandparents.  Talked to one man who was picked to be sent to Siberia but was two sick to travel, so he was given a 1 day reprieve, the next day the Germans drove the Soviets out.  He took his chances and ran while he could.  My own grandparents fled when tanks showed up, leaving everything they could not carry behind.  My family came as refugees, and now I'm seeing the same system here.  I have no interest in being sent to a dissident camp in Alaska.

You old guys got some fighting spirit.  My dad finally made up his mind that he would rather tough it out in the States so now we are looking at rural land for them and he is stocking up on ammo.  Still need to get them out of hte 401k, looking at Jauary for tax reasons.  For local probably Utah.  My folks are not LDS (nor am I) but Utah is making lot of great laws (pro gun, anti Cap and Tax, grabbing Federal land, anti Obamacare), better climate then Idaho or Montana, and both my mom and I both have LDS friends.  Their church is howling at them to get ready for really bad times, so at least they might be better prepared with stored food in case of a supply line break.

I'm still looking at the door, I can still hear those in my head stories to this day, and it still shakes me up.  Wish people would realize the police state we are walking into.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:02 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Wow, Shameful, your family history looks amazing.  Consider talking to ALL the old folks and get the info written down (photos too), we finished a 10 year project a few years ago to do our genealogy and family history.  We published 100 copies in hardback book form, 20 of which are still in my closet.

America (our ideals) is not yet dead!  But, the trend is REALLY BAD.  Maybe that can be changed, but probably not, who knows.

...

Utah is an interesting place (most places, though, are at least somewhat interesting).  The part I went to a bit over a year ago w/ mi esposa peruana was the southern part, Zion & Bryce.  A little cold for my taste, but in my dealings with the locals (Mormons or not?) I was kind of impressed.  Now that you can buy beer (and micro-brews) in Utah, well, that makes the state a legit place to live below the radar...

Do consider looking at leaving law school (as well as traveling to candidate countries) so you can build up your savings and check out the world.  You may find that living under the radar here in America may work for you.

If not, and if you have $50,000 (or more) saved up, AND know Spanish, that there are legitimate options open to you (esp. if you are SINGLE, latinas for good reason like American sensibilities), then you have an option of South America.

...

That's it for me tonight!  My ice-cold berry flavored vodka (in an ice cold glass) is now helping me in my glide path to a restful sleep.

ZH is my best internet communication re the dangerous times ahead.

Good luck my fellow investors.  Buenas noches!

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:26 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Wished I had more family records.  Found out that used to be a noble family back in the day, and the last name is very unique (Internet says no other matches) and has an interesting meaning.  But like I said they came over without much. 

lol well my dad is a drinker, and happy about that.  To my surprise their cigarette tax is low, also a plus for my dad.

I'm planning on checking out places.  This summer looks like the visit to the homeland with my dad.  I want to go with him since I never picked up the language, my mom made me stop.  Turns out I was 4 and could not speak English but had not problem talking to my grandparents and dad.

I would quit school but my folks are insistent.  For better or worse I am a dutiful son.  But to make up for it I'm working full time as a programmer...meaning that I don't do much other then work, school, and ZH (which bleeds into work and school),

I do have a lot of savings actually, just not 50k.  I was naturally a saver which helped and working again I hold onto a little over 55% of my income for savings.  Though my Spanish skills suck right now, forgot most all of it.  I'm probably better at Mandarin at this point.  Grew up in Phoenix so I really don't have an excuse either.  I know there were some opportunities.  Talked to friend of mine and he knew some guys who got recruited to work in Guadalajara as software developers but that was pre-crash.  Don't know what the IT field looks like south of the border these days.  Hell I'd be more then willing to go to Latin or South America, growing up in Phoenix I saw my share of very attractive Hispanic girls :)  Maybe I should look at Latin and South America again.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:47 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

I have an interesting software design for you. marubozoathotmail

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 02:26 | Link to Comment delacroix
delacroix's picture

shameful, look into staking a mining claim. the requirements are simple, the fees are low. you can develop the property. I think its at least 10 acres. i'm pretty sure utah is open to it. no big investment, leaves you mobile.   a little RV encampment, with off grid power, is doable

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 04:23 | Link to Comment Privatus
Privatus's picture

I suggest you give serious consideration to the notion that studying law in a nation that is throwing away its constitutional heritage with both hands is a colossal waste of time and money. If you know how, trade. If you don't, you can learn (start by reading Trend Following by Michael Covel). Escape to a jurisdiction that does not consider you to be its chattel. With zero capital gains tax, Hong Kong and Singapore come to mind.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 07:44 | Link to Comment FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

As a retired shark, I respectfully disagree.  In a situation with rapidly changing laws, lawyers become even more valuable.  I can barter my legal services for just about anything.  If you're a general practitioner, your services will always have value.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 08:27 | Link to Comment SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

I may see you in Lima (also have connections there).  But of course, as you know, Peru is tightly bound to the dollar (real estate transactions often conducted in USD, for example). Hmmm...

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 10:53 | Link to Comment gilligan
gilligan's picture

I too have Sth America lined up as an option for a future home.  It has a lot going for it. 

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:08 | Link to Comment fUny1
fUny1's picture
We bailed out Goldman and Gang and now they’re back at it again making us poorer at the pump while actively working to destroy what is left of our economy.

If GS, JPM, and the rest of the RICO RACKET is a counter party to any loan or speculative trade or even a hedged trade, every sovereign nation should do what China did and walk away.

http://funy1.blogspot.com/2010/04/we-bailed-out-parasitic-bankers-and-now.html

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:11 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

What ever happens the next few days....

Anyone with the balls to go into Greek stocks during the midst of the panic will more than likely see a 300% return in the next 18 months.

LOL...

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:13 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Anyone remember what happened to the MerVal after the 2001 debt blowup?

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:16 | Link to Comment Budd Fox
Budd Fox's picture

Always pragmatic and spot on! Well done Robo....

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:16 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

Big game of sovereign-level chicken; this is only the beginning.

The edges are fraying bigtime.  WTF is in it for Greece to have this magical, special "funding" we keep hearing they'll lose?

WTF is the IMF going to do other than shove the debt up their asses?  The pensions are getting cut either way, and austerity is coming.  The only question is do you sell out your national assets to the bankers or do you tell them to EAT IT.

For Greece?  They should say what Iceland said:  fuck you.  Bring the fucking overlevered banks down too.  This inflation pump and dump is as old as the Bank of England itself.  They used the Sterling Bill as a weapon of imperial war for centuries.

The banks lent "Greece" money the banks themselves never had via the innovation of fractional reserve.  So why should they pay it back at all?  Everyone should be asking themselves, if a goldsmith gives you a paper loan and he never had the specie backing it, do you *really* owe his ass repayment?

The terms are "give us your islands" and you other national assets in exchange for the fact that the fucking banks that kited the checks and invented the credit money happen to be sited in OUR countries.  Fuck you Germany, fuck you France, fuck you United States, fuck you Goldman Sachs.

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:30 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

+10^2

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:33 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I'm getting a, a, what, a meme that DEFAULT may be a word we hear more going forward than the BAILOUT we are all tired of.

I do not owe anything to anyone (ex. each month paying off our credit card bill).

Default does not look so great to us 'creditors'.

...

OK trav7777, I hear you re taking 'made up' money from corrupt bankers.  But, real men and real nations should pay their just debts.  Greece ran up their debts partyin' on.  And they want Germany to pay for that?

I hope that Greece HAS pissed off the IMF enough so that they (we) do not lend them anything.

So default already (not my phrase)!  Robo may be right, just wait until things look REAL BAD and buy that by-then hated stock market.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 00:10 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Real nations?  Who can pay their debts?  Japan can't, we can't, UK can't, I'm not sure most of Europe can.  The West decided to go insane with debt and spending polices and will reap the whirlwind.  It will be default through ether devaluation or repudiation.  Well the other door is eternal debt slavery, oppressive taxes, and nothing to show for it.  Which will force people with skill to wherever they can go to get away from the oppressive taxation and government control.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 00:21 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

By "real men" and "real nations" I mean that in the sense of my grandfather's Will.  He did not rack up debt like a drunken Club Med partier (or an American Eden like California).

So, if the Defaulters don't pay, it is we Savers (Creditors, if you will) who get the stick.

Hey, just because (for now anyway) I have shelved my idea/plan to leave does not mean I have to live on the grid 100%, feed the beast 100%, etc.

I am preserving capital (via gold and assets overseas) that my daughter will get...  Better yet, that any grandchildren that should come my way...!

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 00:36 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Well those men are dead and in the ground by and large.  Now there is nothing socially wrong with being up to your eyes in debt.

Yep the savers will get hosed which is why pensions will fail.  Gold is hard to devalue thank God.  And if one is smart and holds physical then it's hard ot pry out of their hands.

Getting off hte grid or having a place to go is good.  I mentioned above my parents are looking at rural Utah.  Because if things go bad I expect the cities to get really, really bad.

It's cool you are planning enough to leave something behind, I'm just hoping to not how to send back to much.  It's my most fervent wish that my parents will be able to get their funds and into a good investment so I won't have to take care of them or have to send money back.  Though on the plus side for me if they stay here and do have their money safe they can keep on eye out for my sister and my nephews.  I had already resigned myself to having to send her money if things got bad.  She refuses to save, refuses to learn a skill, and firmly has her head in the sand.  Any time I bring up the topic she just shuts down.  Thank God my brother in law is a saint, wish he made more money but nicest guy I have ever met.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:35 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Because I am now fairly drunk now (ice cold vodka from the freezer) though, see above comments as well re Utah, and the the other thread where I comment re you (Social Security).

I think that you ARE in a position to help yourself and most loved ones to survive a catastrophe.

O/T, I have talked with various people who say that law SUCKS as a profession (moral dilemmas inflicted upon you by bosses), though you would know better than me.  If you can land work now/soon that brings in $, that might be better than an uncertain future in a field (law) that appears to me (FWIIW) that makes smart people unhappy.

Not knowing you, I would say get the money (drop out of law school) and put it where you think is best!  YES, check out foreign locales, but check them out in detail, not just a 1 week tour sponsored by a banker....

You are a trailblazer.  Look before you leap.  But, there is a big world out there for those w/ skills (you) and you do not need a law degree which is not worth much ex-USA.  Language skill is more important than lawyer skills in general.

Good luck!  You appear to be just what the world needs: a risk taker who wants good results.  Buena Suerte!

...

Ahh, the berry flavored vodka has achieved its result!  Nite, nite fellow ZH-rs!

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Oh the law profession is a nightmare ATM.  It's rough in normal times and it's a total warzone for jobs.  My income will be higher as a software developer, and I will be able to go do different locals a lot more easily.  At this point it's a sunk cost and like I said would leave if not for the pressure from my parents.  On the plus side almost done with 2nd year and only 1 left and I have structured it so the last year should be the easiest with the lightest class load.  2 years down and 1 to go I'll see it out and hope that it will turn some head when I apply to American companies overseas.  Try to sell my wacky background BS Accounting, Law degree, and my software experience.  On the plus side I don't think an MBA would have added much value either, and I didn't get one on the advice of a prof who told me that after my accounting course load I would not have gotten much out of it.  Might also get a BS in Computer Science (employer will pay for it without forcing me to stick around after) if I think they can keep the ball in the air another year after next.

Initially I went to law school because I wanted to open a software firm with my friends.  We have some IP rights for some really cool software and had a line to sell to a couple casinos.  Even talked to them and demoed it then things went to pot and they backed out.  They don't want to implement a whole new system right now.  The plan was I would handle the finances, legal stuff, and some dev stuff.  Another friend would handle the lead dev stuff (and he owned the IP for the casino software), and another friend would also do some dev stuff and troubleshoot for the clients.  Well the economic shift shot that plan in the face.

Totally agree on checking places out and I do have a lot of vacation to burn so I plan on going to these places and not going on a guided tour.  I plan to get off the plane go to a hotel I only reserve for a few nights then lose myself for a few weeks.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 00:38 | Link to Comment Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

Amen.  Default is not the problem.  Default is the solution.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:30 | Link to Comment 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Now were talking.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 08:49 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Now THAT is an avatar.

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:31 | Link to Comment Rider
Rider's picture

Ya...

 I kinda recall greece, was the most powerful empire centuries ago, just like USA today... last year I mean.

When this bond-carnage will happen to the great USA empire?

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:38 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Rider, I suspect it will not be too long.

Although, this whole sh!t-storm has been going on so long that maybe we should plan on this whole thing dragging itself out, longer, longer, longer.

Until the system breaks all at once.  We are not immune as you point out.

Iceland, Greece, Dubai.  Contagion coming to a country near you soon?

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:42 | Link to Comment Mark of Zerro
Mark of Zerro's picture

How does this bode for the Euro?  Is it too obvious to say that the Euro will crater?  Or, will some kind of delapidated logic move the Euro to all time highs?

 

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:22 | Link to Comment Budd Fox
Budd Fox's picture

First a flight to quality and up the US$ ( is already happening..), then the next target on...) then one of the PIS ( No G..that is gone!) and in 10 years reserve currency ...the Yuan, free floating....rinse, repeat the fiat currency game with the New Empire.

Just need to sail through carefully mate...

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:22 | Link to Comment Budd Fox
Budd Fox's picture

First a flight to quality and up the US$ ( is already happening..), then the next target on...) then one of the PIS ( No G..that is gone!) and in 10 years reserve currency ...the Yuan, free floating....rinse, repeat the fiat currency game with the New Empire.

Just need to sail through carefully mate...

Tue, 04/06/2010 - 23:54 | Link to Comment sushi
sushi's picture

Why don't the Greeks just cut taxes? If they cut deep enough the resulting growth would give them a surplus such that they could retire all the debt.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 00:36 | Link to Comment Stranger
Stranger's picture

Hum, the problem is that they need to keep paying the armies of bureaucrats, retirees and, well, armies so they don't burn down the capital.

They need to raise taxes to do this.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:54 | Link to Comment Orly
Orly's picture

Actually, the problem is not with charging too much for taxes in Greece.  The problem is in what the government receives.  There is rampant corruption and massive tax evasion in Greece, amongst other things.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 00:41 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Everybody should wait patiently in line, no pushing... or trying to break in.

Large groups of unemployed people do not view the system as a solution.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 00:35 | Link to Comment WSMassiv
WSMassiv's picture

I can't wait to see this unfold.  It has to be good for the dollar, which in turn is apparently good for stocks, gold, silver and bonds!  Everything wins!!  I love this new economic system!  Roulette where everyone wins!! Yeah!

 

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:04 | Link to Comment leftcoastfool
leftcoastfool's picture

Since Gordon_Gekko hasn't posted this yet, I feel obliged to do it for him:

 

"Just declare bankruptcy, stiff the idiots who bought your bonds and GET IT OVER WITH ALREADY."

 

I agree, GG

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 01:39 | Link to Comment 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

What time does Greece part 3 start, I dont want to miss it.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 02:01 | Link to Comment Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

Greece is surely overplaying its hand. And what happens when game of chicken is taken too far - caboom happens, big p. sound surrounded by brown noise and never ending regret. 

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 02:10 | Link to Comment Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

"Income based repayment


On July 1, 2009, the federal government's new Income Based Repayment (IBR) program went into effect. The IBR program was created to help college graduates manage their increasingly large student loan payment obligations. Under the program, a borrower’s monthly student loan payment is calculated based on income and family size. A borrower is allowed to pay 15% of his or her discretionary income to student loan payments, with any remaining debt forgiven after 25 years. The program is open to graduates with a federal Stafford Loan, Graduate PLUS Loan, or Consolidation Loan made under either the Direct Loan program or the FFEL program.

The new legislation enhances the IBR program. Under the legislation, borrowers who take out new federal student loans after July 1, 2014, will pay 10% of their discretionary income to student loan payments, with any remaining debt forgiven after 20 years."

 

 

brow a 100K, invest, make a minimum payment for 20 years & Yohoo - JACK POT.

 

RE next....

 

 

welcome to the USSA.  

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 02:32 | Link to Comment Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

health law summary:

"

For individuals


  • U.S. citizens and legal residents will be required to have health insurance by 2014, with some exceptions. Those without insurance will face a tax penalty of as much as 2.5% of taxable income.
  • Existing employer-sponsored health insurance plans will be allowed to remain essentially the same except the plans will be required to extend dependent coverage to qualifying children through age 26, lifetime limits (and eventually, annual dollar limits) on coverage must be eliminated, waiting periods for coverage cannot extend beyond 90 days, and insurers will not be able to deny coverage or charge higher premiums to people based on their health status and gender.
  • Medicaid eligibility will be expanded to include individuals under age 65 whose income is less than 133% of the Federal Poverty Level.
  • For families with incomes up to 400% of the Federal Poverty Level, tax credits and subsidies will be available to purchase health insurance through state-run exchanges, and to offset out-of-pocket costs.
  • Contributions to a health flexible spending account will be limited to $2,500 per year. Reimbursementsfrom health FSAs and HRAs for over-the-counter drugs will be restricted, and tax-free reimbursements from HSAs and Archer MSAs for over-the-counter drugs will not be allowed, while the tax on HSAs and Archer MSAs increases for distributions not used for qualified medical expenses.
  • A rebate of $250 will be available to Medicare Part D (drug coverage) beneficiaries who reach the coverage gap (donut hole) and the coinsurance rate for costs within this gap are gradually reduced to 25%.
  • Adults with pre-existing conditions will be able to purchase coverage from temporary high-risk pools until 2014, when coverage cannot otherwise be denied for pre-existing conditions.
  • A national program will be established to provide limited reimbursement for long-term care expenses for individuals who participate by contributing to the program's cost through voluntary payroll deductions.

For employers

  • Employers with 50 or more employees that do not offer health insurance coverage will generally have to pay a premium tax of up to $2,000 per full-time employee.
  • Employers with more than 200 employees must automatically enroll employees in health insurance plans from which employees may opt out.
  • Employers providing health insurance must offer a voucher to qualifying employees to purchase insurance through an exchange.
  • Qualifying small employers may receive a tax credit for providing health insurance to employees.

Tax changes

  • The threshold for itemized deductions for qualified medical expenses will be increased from 7.5% of adjusted gross income (AGI) to 10% of AGI, though a temporary exception will be maintained for those 65 and older.
  • The tax for Medicare Part A (hospitalization coverage) is increased 0.9% for individuals with earnings exceeding $200,000, and for couples with joint earnings greater than $250,000. Also, high-income taxpayers will be subject to a surtax of 3.8% on unearned income, such as capital gains, dividends, annuities, and rental income.
  • The law imposes a 10% tax on the amount paid for indoor tanning services. "
Prepared by Forefield Inc. Copyright 2010. :(   )

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 05:46 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

WHERE ARE THE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS people already put into Medicare yet are too young to have received any benefits? Will the US Gov be sending out refund checks or was the Medicare PONZI scheme just stolen by the US Government?

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Just received my SS statement. My employer(s) and I have now put $200K  into the system. If only half of that had been invested or better yet, put into physical gold...What a monumental waste...

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 04:08 | Link to Comment yabs
yabs's picture

I just wish they would get this over with why prolong the agony for all of us we know this stock market must sonk at some point so why don't hey just let it I thought a worldwide depression was what Soros etc want if you listen to all the conspiraices so why are they trying so hard to hold it up

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 05:43 | Link to Comment ZimbabweBen1991
ZimbabweBen1991's picture

Well it looks like its going to be a hot summer in Europe. At this point they will ultimately bailout Greece but wait till next year when its Spain,Portugal,Ireland and Italy's turn.There is going to be alot of rioting this summer in Athens.

Well Greece can either call 1-888-ECB-CASH or 1-888-IMF-CASH wonder who will pick up first? I mean one of them will save greece right? Oh yeah I forgot. Results May Vary. Sorry Greece.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 06:07 | Link to Comment macroeconomist
macroeconomist's picture

So funny to see so many people from U.S trying to make fun of the Greek situation..Reminds me a nice Turkish saying that goes more or less like 'that who shat on his pants is taking the piss with that who pissed on his pants' lol. Lets see what sort of funnier games U.S treasury will have to play if FED stops monetizing the debt.,Poor Greeks, you would be as well off as U.S only if you could print as much...

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 07:08 | Link to Comment ZimbabweBen1991
ZimbabweBen1991's picture

I agree with you. Over here in the US in five years we will be in the same position as Greece. If we monetize only half of the debt and unfunded liabilities we will have an stagflation holocaust. California is soon to be our Greece in two years so yeah the sov debt crisis is not only limited to Europe but to the Unites States.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 07:57 | Link to Comment FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

It reminds me of that neat experiment where they took a chimp who had never seen a mirror and they put bright paint on the chimp's nose.  They then put the mirror in with the chimp.  The chimp laughed for a long time at the new chimp, who had funny paint on his nose.  Eventually, the chimp learned what the mirror was, and then wiped the paint off his nose.  That is a true story.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 07:54 | Link to Comment FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

Of all of the factors that I have considered as I have descended into the depths of doomerism, the one that keeps coming back as the one that will govern is the psychology of how people react in a situation in which the status quo is rapidly changing for the worse.

I have read many quasi doomers post that "we will come together" or "people will use initiative - we're adaptable" or "there is a long history of Americans rising together to face a challenge" or some other such animal stomach type notion of camaraderie.

I've concluded that the above wishes are symptomatic of the distinctly human, unfortunate quality of dealing with unpalatable facts by ignoring them or rationalizing why they aren't what they are.

When have we ever "come together" as humans to "face a challenge" when the challenge hasn't been some other group that needed a beat down?  I read the Grapes of Wrath.  Well, most of it.  When times get tough, many will help others.  But many will not only not help, they will go out of their way to not help.

Thus, doom.

With regard to Greece, and Bush the 3rd's crony who raised the specter of a VAT, the fact that most people in Greece and the U.S., respectively, don't respond with a long, quizical, "why don't we just spend less money? Duuuuuuh" tells you all you need to know.

Shrinking pool of water, and virtually everybody is going to use the govt. machine to feed their own mouths first, even when it means the pool gets smaller as a result.

Doom.

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 08:38 | Link to Comment MAGICWIZARD
MAGICWIZARD's picture

I think it's time to grab some popcorn as the show is about to begin.....

Wed, 04/07/2010 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I can't read this anti-Greek propaganda. You guys have no idea about what is going on in Greece. It's actually disconcerting reading this nonsense. Even Greek television hit it on the head this morning: the crisis right now is mostly psychological. Get over Greece, and keep your eye on the real debt woes developing in the United States.

Fri, 04/09/2010 - 03:40 | Link to Comment mark456
mark456's picture

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