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Greece Update: Another Risk Record As Prime Minister Openly Talking Against Speculation, Lehman Deja Vu
At this point using the words "Greece" and "record" in the same sentence is starting to get uncool. Alas, today, it has to be said one more time. The country's CDS is now at 387 bps, another all time wide, while the spread to Bunds is just getting plain silly. Of course, the chorus of voices begging for calm is increasing, with Spain's prime minister the latest to claim that "nobody will be leaving the euro." It is unclear at this point if he is referring to Greece or Spain. This is coupled with Papandreou saying that he is "seeing speculation in world financial markets" regarding his country's risk, and the ever ubiquitous "rumors can create problems." Dick Fuld surely can sympathize.
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How unfortunate...then again they made their bed, now they have to lie in it. Speculation indeed...
I hope something bad happens, it's been a long time since we've seen anything really resembling a panic, and it would be good to refresh everyone's memory.
I agree; the markets complacency is unfounded and will inevitably be punished. Lets have it now and get it over with so we can get on with investing and away from sheer speculation.
Either Greece goes down (rates go parabolic) -
Or the Euro goes down (forced to eat it, setting dangerous expectations for the future)
You can't have both ways.
You can't "blame the speculators" or legislate against inevitability.
Given the rising popularity of "the euro goes down", they might just choose that in order to up the ante on Banana Ben.
The Germans must be sitting in wonderment, thinking "just what have we got ourselves into"?
Except their thinking that in German, instead of English... if you know what I mean.
They are thinking:"Auf was zur Hölle haben wir uns da eingelassen?"
Global economy, Greece and loan dumping since 1990 has hit us hard.
Dick Fuld for Prime Minister of Greece!
C'mon china, sell your FRNs
Hedge funds think an interview with CNBC David Faber is in order.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIWCwwn8JjI
Does anyone know how Greece came to
today? A refresher they have a current account deficit 15% of GDP reliant upon external funding due to no home bias.
Such is the case, they did recently come to
market with a euro denominated sovereign that was 4x's oversubscribed
the euphora was short lived however. The saga continues.
Greece has been running massive deficits with little regard to the future for decades. They ultimately should get punished. Couldn't happen to a nicer country, if you can call it that. Did anyone say Banana?
Be careful what you wish for Greece/U.S!?!
anyone have a clue why and how their issuance was oversubsrcibed?
Who bought????
Oh, I forgot, we don't need to know.
Rumour has it that the Greek Govt. leaned on the Greek banks to 'Encourage' them to buy up the issuance.
In other words, the ECB bought it indirectly. This is just SOP: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/piigs-moment-fracking-approaching-sp-jo... . Greece and the other PIIGS have been leaning on the EU in this fashion for over a year now.
And so? that behavior is positive. They are trying to develop
a market to self fund/home bias. No laws
broken there that I know of. Your mistake
is the first word "rumor" Start with facts
and go from there.
markets have a tendency to latch on to
the lastest trend. As long as we have
markets; public issuance can get done at
a price. The deal was priced cheap to
the lenders perception of what Greece
needs to pay in order to borrow money.
Which begs the question what fundamentals are folks eyeballing
in the CDS market to create such conviction of a Greek default? The trend
da jour, unsubstantiated rumors?
California to be the next...........
Or Illinois.
Pelosi plans to pull that rabbit out of the hat in time for the November elections.
Of course, as soon as Time's Man of the Year is reconfirmed, all will be well with the universe, or at least the futures markets.
Blah. One can imagine that the respective governments are milking this to the maximum...the euro is doomed to success, weaker is better for the likes of France and Germany. Until the periphery countries are much stronger they will continue to act as balast/vents for inflation and deflation to save the teutonic overlords and control prices in the homeland.
R in Strasbourg.
So how does the squid play this one?
Umm...what about bankrupt California, which is bigger than Greece as far as the US is concerned? I guess that's all the more reason for the dollar to rally, no?
Yeah but the dollar is old and crumpled while the Euro has to lose its shine yet.
Further it is expected that the Fed will step under CA to soften the fall while nobody knows what is in play in Europe. Do they have a Bazooka Paulson to frighten the EC into throwing money in a black hole? Will Germany provide money for all failed states? No chance, they know they'll have the same fate as California: tax money flowing out to never be seen again... [in a war at least you own the land afterwards]
I'm not defending the actions, just reminding that it is the unknown that exacerbates the crises. Once fucked, that's it.
Greek is the word is the word that you heard it has move it has feeling.
Sorry. I'm compulsive obsessive and all that jizz.
:P~
Does anybody really care what happens to greece or the euro in general? They built a brick shit house and forgot the mortar. Who cares?
The rise and fall of roman bathhouses.
What an epic drama?
-MobBarley
Cali is toast for sure,but remember they don't follow FASB. GASB permits them until June. So maybe god's work is to hit the UK and Europe first before the US starts airing out its own dirty laundry.
The Dick Fuld comment is priceless, Tyler. Thanks for starting the day with a good chuckle.
I didn't follow the Lehman bankruptcy very close when it happened, nor did I know much about Fuld. I've been reading the book Too Big To Fail which tells about the Lehman deal and how Fuld dealt with it. Pretty amazing if I can believe the accuracy as portrayed by the author. I felt sorry for the guy - but not for very long. :-)
The Germans are extremely wise in financial matters. the Greek situation will be no surprise to them at all. This is not the first time Greece has stabbed Germany in the back. Just go back to WW2 history. Greece fought hard for the USSR Red Army's communists. Germany knows exactly what Greece is and stands for. It is only news to uninformed Americons.
in europe u have the other paulson(john) shorting piigs debt. But he's barbelling it no doubt. Now California is way more interesting. They have an economy that is 5-6x larger than Greece.
This on GATA, article from FT
Goldman Sachs trying to broker Greek bonds to China
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/65ac74fc-0aaf-11df-b35f-00144feabdc0.html
Cheers!
What I'd like to know is, who in their right mind would lend Greece money for 10 years at 6.2%?
a better question would be who in their right mind would lend California money at 5% for 20 yrs?
Who lent the money to the Banks?
after perusing the remarks I guess you guys who like to spec in the blog market are putting on the Greek sell the rumor buy
the fact trade?
Athens Police see corporate thefts rise.
One financial crimes investigator's embezzlement caseload has doubled since the economy tanked in fall 2008.
"Before, when everything was running good and things were rocking, people had a cushion" that let them absorb losses, Detective Beverly Russell said.
Russell saw her average load increase from about a half-dozen embezzlement cases to between 10 and 15. "People have been stealing all along; they're just getting caught more when the economy got bad," she said.
http://www.onlineathens.com/stories/012710/new_555180466.shtml
Dec 29 The Economist: Russia, China
Mexico at "high risk" of social explosion next year. An article you might want to
have handy this year. Surprised unrest
is on the rise? You would get cranky too if you
were hungry and frustrated with your present circumstances.