Greek 30 Year Bond Cash Price: 50 Cents

Tyler Durden's picture

For a stunning reminder of just how much of a haircut the market is expecting on Greek debt in actual cash terms, look no further than the country's 30 Year bonds. These are now trading just above 50 cents on the euro. That's a "50% off" blue light special and roughly comparable to the recovery the market is expecting on the paper. Alternatively any "liability management exercise" price on these notably above 50 will result in a Greek revolution.


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the mad hatter's picture

coming soon to a Treasury near you.

Josephine29's picture

In case people are wondering what things were like before the "rescue" of Greece here is an explanation.

As we approach Easter 2011 I thought it was time to look for some perspective and so I looked at the situation on Easter 2010. The Greek two-year goverment bond yield was 5.79% and the ten-year was 6.53% in what was already something of a crisis. Last night they closed at 22.07% and 14.87% respectively and the changes are rather eloquent about what has happened over the past year. When you consider the capital employed by the Euro zone then the inversion of short yield which now way exceed longer ones is analagous to a football goalkeeper catching a shot but then in an attempt to start his own teams attack somehow throwing the ball into his own net.


Perhaps we should call it an anti-rescue....

Doc's picture

But Leo Kolivakis told me to buy!

hedgeless_horseman's picture

True, he did.  But you didn't, right? 


Stormdancer's picture

I did buy a chinese solar cell phone charger....

Doc's picture

Hell yeah.

It was between that and gold and well... you know... gold doesn't like yield... and you can't like eat it or anything...


EvlTheCat's picture

Now you know why he bitches incessantly about pensions.  His financial advice sucks and he needs an end of life bail out when he runs out of his own money.

Doc's picture

Hell yeah.

It was between that and gold and well... you know... gold doesn't like yield... and you can't like eat it or anything...


High Plains Drifter's picture

Leo doesn't believe the hype......

Otherspeoplesmoney's picture

Ah yes the old "i was talking to my family back in Greece and they are still going out for dinner......" investment strategy.  So glad Zero Hedge stopped posting him given the lack of interest in his shallow end commentary..........what he's still have a good heart T.D most would have kicked him to the curb.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Well, if Greece is leading California (Illinois, etc.) by a couple of years, then things could get real ugly here too.  I saw the Keratea video, what, yesterday.


NONE of our financial problems have been solved.

NO ONE of significance of those who caused our crisis are in jail.


Preparation.  Diversification.  Agility.  <--- Three good words to know.

thames222's picture

Liking those three words.  Is that a slogan for your company?  You're right, though, virtually none of our problems have been solved, not even since 2008.  there never was any recovery, this just feels like a very long recession.

hugovanderbubble's picture

Appreciate Post Tyler.



Catullus's picture

You said so yourself, she kidnapped herself.

redpill's picture

Nothing is fucked here, dude!

Cleanclog's picture

When will PIMCO open a yield inversion fund?  

franzpick's picture

I traded 30 yr. US bond futures in 1980 when they were below 57.

It's happened here before and someday those prices will return.

Cleanclog's picture

Same - remember when Money Market instruments hit the usury ceiling and we couldn't trade things yielding more than 22%?  At the time I could never imagine an 8% bond or mortgage rates below 10%.  Now, we've been below 6% for so long people think rates are high.  The current complacency is mind-boggling.  VIX below 15!

NotApplicable's picture

Of course, back then the Fed had yet to complete construction of the Rube Goldberg Magic Money Machine, which sterilizes any market it enters by occupying both sides of every conceivable trade.

You could call it the VIX fix (for the time being, anyway).

IQ 145's picture

 Ah, so that's why you have that Avatar name. The grand old man of bonds. One of my favorite quotations comes from him; "Bonds are instruments of guaranteed confistication".

Silver Bug's picture

They should be worth nothing. The only thing making them worth anything, is the fact that people think that the ECB will simply bail them out again. Which they more than likely will. But that can only go on for so long. Not my cup of tea.

Cow's picture

But "Professor" Jeffrey Sachs (Columbia) said "I don't think we are anywhere close to the worst cases of sovereign default"

Hugh Hendry: "I Would Recommend You Panic"

Lotionboy's picture

QE5 Bitchez! lol

Nancy Pelosi and Charlie Rangel Debating Their Fate As The Dollar Dies

DrStrangelove's picture

Shave and a Greek haircut 2 bits, 30year Greek bond, 4 bits

Lotionboy's picture

Dr. You are a very busy man..I see you everywhere...God Bless

Dick Darlington's picture

30Y Greece has been trading around 55 cash for a long time and lately moved towards 50. It's the short end of the curve which is most exposed when the clippers come to do some "liability management exercise". Can't wait...

HoofHearted's picture

I was actually only surprised that the prices for the Greek 3 month and 6 month were so high. Who would take a 5-7% yield when you consider the default risk? It's just not worth it. And it's probably why silver is up $4 an ounce in the last couple of days.

NotApplicable's picture

Who? How about those in the know who are front-running the next bailout, like say, Bill Gross maybe?

Perhaps he knows they (EU/IMF/Uncle Ben) are going to prop them up for a few more months, but two years, no way in Hades.

Miles Kendig's picture

Gee, I thought it would take a month for Greek 30s to hit 40c.  I may have been overly kind.  No wonder German banks are going ape shit while France remains silent.

Stormdancer's picture

France has lots of experience surrendering so they're pretty phlegmatic about it all.  Relatively new experience for Germans....

DrunkenMonkey's picture

Indeed, my french friends still cringe when I remind them that France capitulated and Paris was occupied 6 weeks after the Wehrmacht crossed the border.

Stormdancer's picture

Vive la Vichy!  :)  There's always a silver lining though.  It's a trait that makes French military surplus rifles some of the best deals in the world.


"Never fired, only dropped once!"


I guess if we get tired of these endless military adventures we could make ourselves feel better by invading Quebec :)....close to home and it would be over quickly.

newworldorder's picture

The rest of Canada might have something to say about that.

Miles Kendig's picture

Heck, most every western Canadian (that's west of the Ottawa river) I know would gladly give Quebec to us.  No need to invade, unless were looking for more stimulus

Tipo anónimo's picture

Yeah, something like "Now we know what it feels like to be freeeeee" or "remember that time that Uncle Sam drop kicked our wicked step-mother down the stairs?"


Canucklehead's picture

I've got one of those.  A pristine MAS Model 1936.  Just like new.

If the CAD gets any stronger, Quebec may surrender to you rather than wait for an invasion.

Miles Kendig's picture

At least French battleships don't have glass bottoms so sailors can wave and say: "Buona vedere gli amici come si passa da".  I hear that Quebec financial battleships do tho.


Gordon Freeman's picture

Fiddy cent, bitchez!!

jmc8888's picture

Blue light specials always signified crap, so it's perfect.

But considering that greek debt if fraud, and unpayable (if somehow one would refute the first, one couldn't the 2nd), 50 cents seems a tad too rich to me.

Greek Pension funds should get out now, and since they were screwed, reimbursed.  That's standard procedure for dealing with defrauded pensions...and prosecutions.  Sure it's another country, but the right thing to do is the right thing, and there are obviously similarities, we're not talking about Aboriginees, it's Greece..birthplace of western democracy.

As for everyone else, you know what you got yourself into, or should have. The writing's been on the wall for years. 

Plus those running the pensions, need to be barred from handling public money again.  Plus any potential kickbacks or impropriety should be looked at.

johngaltfla's picture

Thankfully the ECB has this contained.

To the EU for now.

oogs66's picture

all the PIGS were weak today, does it really mean nothing or is the stock market just that much smarter than anyone else? 

Hephasteus's picture

Buy at half price.

Sell at half price.


asteroids's picture

I predicted a year ago Greece would take the money. They aren't stupid. Then, they will say "NO" and "fuck you". They have a tradition of doing this and anyone that has studied soverign defaults knows this. The only question is before or after Easter. We know the answer to that. It'll be at least 45 days after Easter. Study your history boys.

Mr Sir's picture

Rumor is 10yr maturity extensions for all outstanding Greek debt with new 3.5% coupons....if bondholders don't approve then it's an immediate 50% haircut for those not willing to play ball. All of those london hedge fund morons which bought 2013 Greek notes thinking it was money good, see you in 2023, or at your next haircut appoitment next year.

ambrosiac's picture


ΒTW some London hedge fund morons angling to position CDSes just managed

a fine bit of manipulation -- all via a sky-is-falling email that went quasi-viral.


Whatever the meek may do, the credulous shall inherit nothing.

Athens prosecutors are on the job. 


Mr Sir's picture

The sky has fallen for Greece, the bailout money will run out by August 20, 2012. They either extend maturities or haircut. They will extend first cause the banks holding paper at par will not have to write down their holdings. After that, Greece will haircut cause the math doesn’t lie….Greek government statistics do.

tomster0126's picture

Poor there any light at the end of the tunnel for the country?  their situation is just way to sticky to even touch right now.