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Greek 6M-1Y Curve Inverted, Spread Difference Between 3M And 6M almost 300 bps.
As an indication of just how royally... busted... things are in Greece, note the most recent GGB curve below. While the 10s30s inversion is not too surprising as at this point nobody expects Greece to be solvent for 30 years, what is more amusing is the inversion of the 6 Month - 1 Year points. Furthermore, the surge between 3 and 6 months over almost 300 bps indicates that the market is pretty much convinced D-Day for Greece will occur, as we expected, sometime between July and September. Which is two months before the Mid-Terms.... And is two months before the deadline that the fmr Israeli Deputy Defense Secretary said Israel will likely have to attack Iran by. Second half of 2010 should be significantly more volatile than the past 12 months.
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The way things are going, Greece won't get to May.
I'm almost in your cam with the May part. I believe it will implode in June.
EVERYTHING IS FINE. PLEASE ACCEPT THESE COMPLIAMENTARY DRINK TICKETS, AND GO BACK TO THE PARTY.
Wasn't getting drunk and partying what got Greece (and us) into this mess?
"Beer the cause of and solution to all of life's problems!"
Something like this, maybe
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw
Wells must be holding a bunch of Greek infected paper because it is up another 1.7% today.
Yes, apparently the US banking sector has never been so sound.
Well Well,
It appears we have finished the end of the beginning, and are now entering the mid-game! This is where is gets interesting (as in "may you live in interesting times").
Hey MB, got any gold? or just that pretty paper? I'm sure that debt-backed paper will be JUST-FINE! I hope you have cash (and no counter party risk!)
ZOR-BAIL:
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/04/zor-bail-greeks.html
REMAIN CALM
ALL IS WELL
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
The market message is quite clear; the chart says it all. The fun & games go on til the last naked Greek Olympian politician cracks...
Come on everybody, we're up until November. Don't you get it by now? After all we've been through there's no sense trying figure this out or strategize. We're under the thumb of big government who's current plan is to avoid at all costs, any kind of disruptiion until after election day. That's what this is all about tot his point.
ok playing along with this line of thinking, why doesnt the "government" get oil prices to $40 a barrel?
How could it? The main weapon they have in money printing, which is inherently inflationary. They can paper over all the problems they want but commodities and prices of real things will rumble upward at some level in response. Look at oil now, it's going up but demand is down and refineries are idling. Unless they plan a take down ad run into the perceived safety of the UST and USD then I expect commodity prices to steadily go up floating in a sea of endless liquidity supplied by Zimbabwe Ben.
The visible component is gasoline. Perhaps a a repeat of the 2006 playbook... Tons of money is indexed to the GSCI. Drop the weighting of gasoline. Every percent weighting is roughly $1b in futures. It doesn't have to be the squid; it could be anyone who owns a commodity index.
Just wondering how much USD per Bbl should ensure the “right” election results for Democrats?
Quick question, how many claims of voter fraud were made by the press and DNC faithful after the election of B. Hussein Obama?
Want to guess how many are going to be made after the elections this Novemeber.
um...what the hell happened? looking at my bbg (wish i could post it). the 6 mo went from 6.094% to 3.46%. yeah i realize the above post regarding the backtrack, but the 2yr actually tacked on about 20bps EOD.
Thats a pretty hefty move higher for the 6mo.
"If the bottom's falling out of your world then drink a pint of Guinness and watch the world fall out of your bottom"
Ouzo, Guinness what's the difference
Just a clarification, it wasn't the Israeli sectertary of defense that said Iran would be attacked, it was the FORMER (not current) secretary of defense..
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