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Greek Curve Goes Apeshit: Bloomberg Reports 3 Month Bid At 21.3%
If this information is correct, it is all over. Bloomberg calculates the yield on the Greek 3 Month as determined by the bid, or where investors are willing to buy it, based on BVAL sources at 21.3%. In all honesty the bid/offer market in the 3 Month are all over the place. HDAT gives it as 99.650x99.840, BVAL is at 99.470x99.773. The HDAT bid implies a yield of 14.049%, which is still game over for Greece.
Another way to see the carnage is the Greek CDS curve: 3M-5Y is at -185 bps!
Why is all of this relevant? Because as Market News confirms as we initially noted, Greece plans to sell €600 million in 6 Month and €600 million in 12 Month Bills on April 13. Sorry, if the 3M is anywhere close to 14% bid (let alone 21%), this is not happening.
In addition, the country faces E8.22 billion in bond redemptions on Apr 20, E1.585 billion in T-bill redemptions on Apr 23, a E2.278 billion coupon payment on May 10 and E8.086 billion in bond redemption on May 19. The PDMA debt chief Petros Christodoulou has already hinted that April’s funding needs are taken care of, but that the country needs to raise E11.6 billion by May.
Also, apparently the American syndication is not going too hot. Greece has now moved on to the bubble of last resort: Asia.
Christodoulou added that Greece will soon do a roadshow in Asia and the U.S. Soon after that, at the end of April or the very beginning of May, “we could be in the market with a global bond deal in dollars,” he said.
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with the austerity program, shouldn't the greeks stay at home and do their global roadshows via skype videoconference?
No one even bothering to trade the longer maturities? Onset of tunnel vision.
According to Leo, this is all just psychological.
According to me, this morning is the time to close Greek CDS long positions. Not so much PIIS.
Predator 93 to Predator 6
6 - Go
93 - Have copied the following transmission being repeated endlessly over the Greek command circuit. Use of Spanish by the Greeks may be of note.
Soy un perdedor I’m a loser baby, so why don’t you kill me?
6 - Copy
93 - Out
Beck apparently was nicknamed Loser and wrote it into the song as a joke. He played coffee houses and stuff and got picked up by a minor label, who got him local exposure, some popularity, and then the attention of a major label.
Seems to me, only after embracing his situation was he able to find success.
Soy un perdedor!
We are all losers Baybee, so why don't you kill we.
If we is the current structure and membership of society the deed is already done. One way or another we all contributed in our own way and are all effected by it since everyone is a member of the club called society. Since we are all losers then we are one step closer to settlement. MsCreant, we salute ourselves, each other and our fellow citizens.
Soy un Perdedor!
T-bill auction on Tuesday means bail out on Monday...50 yards on monday at 3% from the IMF then they borrow 6m t-bills at 1% from the Greek banks...
Come on TD- can't you read between the lines
Now that that's in full mushroom cloud mode, lets see which direction the dominoes fall. Will there be any flat rocks looked under in this mini armageddon? How can they stay in the Euro now?
Something big is going to have to happen. Place your bets!!
I guarantee they will get a bailout from EU or IMF.
Greece is just trying to scare the $h!t out of everyone by trying to trigger "systemic failure" fears. Hey, it worked great for Paulson and TARP, right? It could work for Greece too...
Note to self
Pick up more Cheese Doodles and Ammo....
question:why is the greek equity markets up? in fact all europe is green.
Is this a real question? There is no other color than green... Geesh!
Germany has 80bn of Greek debt- if Greece goes under, Angela has to write a big cheque to Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Allianz- to clean up after Greece's mess...Why not lend some money instead?
Nah, Germany can default too. And France. And US.
Thus the expression, debt sucks. Event Horizon, black hole sun, vortex.
Hey Greece, go towards the light, they are waiting for you on the other side.
Default Bitches, one and all.
+1
Default Bitches!
Very Soon....very soon. But JPM has to get rid of their silver short positions first.
Yessssss, my child. Go to the light.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTny4dbW9uM
I think you misspelled "Bernanke."
They'll get bailed out.
Have we all forgotten that the 'new normal' is zero accountability, zero responsibility?
Is it finally time for Spector to reveal themselves? Not so fast. We will wait for Greek to cave, china to raise rates (per Tylers previous post), and US market to dive. US market should correct anytime now if my calculations are correct... with help from the St. Luis Fed adjusted monetary base charts, the FED has been a sneaky little central bank and been tightning for 6 weeks now. Last time they did this (January) a nice correction took place.
Once conditions reach this level I hardly believe a bailout will do much to calm investors. Besides, the amounts that IMF/EU provided only gets the can kicked until May(ish) so it means little. You have to deal with these things preemptively to keep the lid on it, and Greece has done nothing but flail about.
I agree. I think at this point, serious trouble is brewing. TARP was "the bailout" after Lehman. It was supposed to solve the issue. At this point, watching the same process unfold again on the sovereign level, people have to be thinking, "hmm... so the bailout didn't solve 'the problem' last time, it won't this time either." The bailout psychological voodoo is getting worn thin. We are moving into stage 11 billion of this fiasco we're in the middle of. Very scary.
Well looks like that USA VAT tax is going to have to come in around 50% or so, enjoy.
Bailout Mania wont end gradually on a long sliding scale, it will be a screeching halt.
---Insert saganaki joke here---
Smart play would be for German pension funds to play angel and lend to Greece at 'only 10%' then get USA taxpayers to cover via IMF.
Too smart?
32bn of debt left to be raised in 2010 Glen.
43bn next year of which 27bn are maturities.
A 50bn credit line will cover your maturities till December 2011.
This story is so over - 150bn for AIG whats a 50bn loan to Greece nothing- just a fart in the wind
how on earth can the markets still be up?
If this doesn't tell everyone on the whole planet that this is a rigged game I don't know what will
Yes, I'm perplexed by this same fact. Markets acts like its already discounted this whole affair. There are so many blaring gigantic shorts in this market (XRT for example). I am so tempted to start loading up on puts. But this non reaction by the market to, at the very least, uncertain and widereaching news makes it harder to press the buy button.
The European stock markets remain unimpressed so far - they remain steady.
I'm still betting on the bailout.
Okay... and then what? Peace and roses everywhere?
I do no see the problem as long as Greek banks can take all the auctions financed via eonia. Just a few calls from PM to the right guys...
the main question to me is it if makes any sense to continue to talk about something called "convergence" and "europe"...
I am really fed up with this politicians and markets.
What are you all talking about? This from the AP this morning:
Stock futures rose Friday as concerns about Greek debt problems wane and on signs that the economy is continuing its slow, steady recovery.
Futures on popcorn I can understand. Anything else I'm not so sure.
GS up .80 in after hours as their Hellenic CDS portfolio has matured and is being harvested as we type.
Edit--GS up 1.35 on the open.
Hedgeless' target 200, eta @ 9-1-10
Shouldnt we be bailing out Los Angeles? This is fucking bullshit. Im sorry, I forgot. Greece was first in line.. Sorry, Rally on. Google to 19,000 a share.
Largely crickets chirping in the MSM. If/when bailbout happens, wonder if Greek bondholders take a major haircut, as EU says we'll help out, after moral hazard bites more than a few guys in the arse.
GS is short Greece, they helped hide the sausage. Greece's own bank's are short (as per ZH). Greece will fail.
Bring it. Get this show on the road.
US bank stocks are on a tear. What could go wrong? Borrow at zero% from uncle BS (Ben Shalom) and lend to uncle Turbo at 4.3% -- who needs consumer and small biz lending? Party on, dudes.
A small little fly in the ointment of soaring earnings (and bonuses -- YEAH!!!) is asset quality. While Wall Street focuses on the income statement, the BS (balance sheet) is completely ignored. All the TBTF are churning out stellar earnings reports while rapidly growing insolvent under the weight of non-performing (delinquent or foreclosed, er... corrosive and toxic) assets.
Mark-to-myth. A thing of beauty.
I am sorry for repeating myself again but I cannot explain why you can have a risk of sovereign default and a possible breakup of the Euro when all risk bank bonds have not been eliminated first.
Could someone please explain the logic of destroying your base money first while leaving outstanding private debt intact.
The absurdity of the situation is beyond a mere joke - it is mind boggling
It's only mind-boggling if you think in conventional terms.
Hypothetically speaking (of course), exactly what would you do if you wished to recreate a feudal social structure and have the majority of the serfs accept their status voluntarily?
NOTE: Go read the personal journals, the autobiographies, and the biographies of the wealthiest men of the late 19th and early 20th century, like Cecil Rhodes. Go read how the 5 largest banks wrote the bill that would later create the Federal Reserve and what those very men had to say about it themselves.
Morpheus: The Matrix is everywhere. It is all around us. Even now, in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window or when you turn on your television. You can feel it when you go to work... when you go to church... when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.
Neo: What truth?
Morpheus: That you are a slave, Neo. Like everyone else you were born into bondage. Into a prison that you cannot taste or see or touch. A prison for your mind.
Except that the prison for your mind is not a computer program. No, it's the illusion of freedom, which then chains you to your debts using basic human psychology (social rejection if you are "broke" and "default" on those debts) to control you.
So destroying the base money system makes complete sense if the real wealth, real assets are concentrated into the hands of the elite while the majority are deliberately impoverished at the same time that they already have a huge noose around their neck called debt.
All this is, of course, hypothetically speaking.
Medley: European Union officials have reached an agreement in
Brussels today on funding a backstop deal for Greece.
The package will be a single "one-stop shop" between the other
15 Eurozone members, the EU's institutions, and the IMF. If
Athens wants to tap the ?20-25-billion fund, it will have to
apply to both the EU and the IMF jointly. The EU's share of the
finance will take the form of bilateral loans at a rate higher
than that of the IMF (3-month euribor +
275 basis points) but well below those prevailing in the market.
I guess the music stops when there is noone left to bailout the last bailer?
Maybe by then they will announce that Martians have landed who have agreed to bailout planet earth
with an intergalactic money fund
What foreign owned assets inside Greece can
be nationalized? Cramer's guest last night
(the EGO guy) mentioned mines in that part
of the world. Are there oil fields that
have been leased out to foreign companies?
If we could identify these companies they
would be good shorts - in addition to the
insurance companies that are holding the
bonds.
This would be one of the steps that they
would take before default. What would
Chavez do?
start direct connection flight between beijing and santorini.
My greek shipping stocks are having a ball right now :)
Don't spoil the party!!
Nothing will happen. Greece will be bailed out on Monday and someone will make a bloody fortune on Greek bonds. Soros or maybe even Paulson, certainly GS. That is the game plan all along and practically everyone in the market knows it. So we can continue to report every little thing about this "crisis" but the end result will be the same.
no doubt JCT and Lloyd will be getting jiggy with it this weekend
In the short-term, I agree with you. But the long-term calculus is changing. After TARP, I don't believe anyone can believe this will be the "last bailout". At what point will we reach the point of "they give a party and no-one comes"? This button has now been pushed one too many times. What's the reaction at the failure point? That's the question I'm focused on right now. No, I don't have a good answer.
Cheeky,
May 9 are elections in a German province (NRW.) Any bailout money before would be political suicide. The average German might not know a lot of finance but with paying greek pensioners at 61 while working until 67 is easy to understand and hugely unpopular.
Was not the healthcare bill hugely unpopular, too?
Nobody likes getting fucked, but obviously people do.
I find this shit HIGHliarious.
Everyone is running around fretting about what NUMBERS ON A PIECE OF PAPER say.
WTF...OMFG...Greek bonds print 14%. So, what, they have to pay someone 14% on imaginary money lent to them by a bank that never had any real capital to begin with??!?
JFC, *I* will lend Greece $265B in imaginary TravDollars right now at only 5%. Just give me access to the fucking Fed's mouse and I'll make a few clicks.
What we call "money" which is actually DEBT is trending toward a Point of Recognition that the whole shebang is a fucking FARCE. Why should ANYONE respect a loan by a bank that never had any capital?
Real Bills Doctrine, coming to a theatre NEAR YOU!
The entire system of phony promises and phony lending of phony capital against real assets is coming to an end. The bankers are struggling as mightily as they can against it, because their entire LIVELIHOOD and the entire "profession" of modern or neoclassical economics, depends upon the perpetuation of this system whereby they entitle themselves to REAL assets for doing the service of lending out phony, imaginary, fictitious, illusory capital.
In essence, our system consists of a village where one guy enshrines himself with a flow of real goods for providing the service of printing money. He lends his unbacked PAPER to you so you can have money, and in return you give him a bushel of grain every month and a balloon of your cattle at the end of the loan term.
This is EXACTLY what happens when the Chief uses force of arms to ordain some entity or person with the exclusive right to take payment for the provision of money. In fact, that is the whole freakin REASON BEHIND Central Banking! It's what Paterson and the BOE had IN MIND when they founded this racket in 1694 (with completely fictitious capital).
walmart will set the stage.
should be ok.
just don't let lloyd & the gang launder their loot.
Am i missing something here??
April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks rose and Greek bonds rallied for the first time in two weeks on speculation Europe’s most indebted nation will get an international bailout to avert a default. The euro jumped 0.6 percent against the dollar.
DOW / SP500 daily chart gives bullish signals as of Friday 9 April. Weekly chart still trends up but continues to warn of an overextended bear market rally.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
http://i39.tinypic.com/34y4k6t.png
It's silly to honor a contract to the point it kills you. Rip up the debt, tell the creditors what you'll pay, and that they're lucky to get anything. Happens lord knows how many times a day in the business world.
And if they don't like what they get, maybe the bankers can convince to the EU to invade them, which I'm sure would go down well with the Continental population, particularly in Ireland.
Cheeky,
May 9 are elections in a German province (NRW.) Any bailout money before would be political suicide. The average German might not know a lot of finance but with paying greek pensioners at 61 while working until 67 is easy to understand and hugely unpopular.
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In essence, our system consists of a village where one guy enshrines himself with a flow of real goods for providing the service of printing money. He lends his unbacked PAPER to you so you can have money, and in return you give him a bushel of grain every month and a balloon of your cattle at the end of the loan term.
This is EXACTLY what happens when the Chief uses force of arms to ordain some entity or person with the exclusive right to take payment for the provision of money. In fact, that is the whole freakin REASON BEHIND Central Banking! It's what Paterson and the BOE had IN MIND when they founded this racket in 1694 (with completely fictitious capital).
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