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Green Close
In a day full of good news, does one really need commentary on the US undecoupling form the rest of the world? Funding problems, upcoming failed Spanish auctions, Volcker rule passing, commercial paper troubles, the SNB left as the only player in FX land, Libor problems, some salt water left in the Gulf of Mexican Oil, bankrupt states, it's all priced in. And whatever is left, Liberty 33 will take care of.
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Now thats more like the PPT I know and ... love?
Just goes to prove retail customers are rank amateurs in the universe of grand larceny......proven over and over.
Everytime I begin to think I know what I am doing, days like these bring me back to the real world. I held my june puts last thursday thinking the down move was going to continue into friday and monday. I should have sold.
PHYS offering more shares, tanks in after hours:
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Sprott-Physical-Gold-Trust-Annou...
Haha. Everyone's counterfeiting.
Shouldn't be a surprise. Just like CEF, when the premium gets too high, they issue more shares, which wipes out the premium. Then it rises again. Repeat the cycle.
Get in on the premium-free offering if you can.
Hey, it's happy days again!
Simply Remarkable - god help the bulls if the sugar tit of the FED is ever plucked away
re-load shorts, fire!
Patience is a strength
Check out the last minute volume spike in the DOW.
Was there some big deal about the 1070 number? Is that the the 200 dma? We know 10k is the psychological barrier. LOL the latter cracks me up.
The spx is below all the big moving averages on the daily. Pretty sure they wanted to make sure it didn't close anywhere near the flash crash low and 1074 was the close yesterday so that seems to be the significance.
Yes, it is rather odd that the market hit the flash crash low today. Well, odd as in "entirely fucking predictable." That kind of odd.
It appears to want to continue lower, it will likely be like chinese water torture getting there. There is nothing particularly healthy looking -- today's reversal was impressive, but so was Fridays and that didn't get us far. The ECB cutting rates seems as if it would be a pile drive to the Euro at a time when it can hardly take it so not sure that's going to seem so bullish after about 5 minutes of reflection -- how calming is it to find out your army just shot off their last round when you realize they didn't actually win the battle or the war?
10,060 was the magic 1,000 point bearrier... key word in the sentence... "was."
Perfect explanation as to why I an NOT in this market. Think I'll go grade some silver coins. Might find some collectable varieties in the piles of junk silver. Then a nice nap and then a bit o' dinner. Water the garden, set the varmint traps. Watch a little History Channel and get to bed early. These markets really tire me out.
Kind of cool, about a month ago I got a Canadia silver quarter from like 1962 in my change. Talk about a windfall!
Same as our quarter, you are now up by the following:
1932-1964 Washington Quarter $3.2209Thanks for that site. I didn't realize the Liberty Double Eagle had close to an ounce in them . I have 4 rated between MS 62-63. One Indian Head that looks like it has a Half ounce. Nice little Psychological windfall tonight. Much appreciated.
Idiots poking around in the attic and putting them back into circulation. "Look at all this change grandpa has! We could have a good weekend in Vegas with this!"
If you're on unemployment you have plenty of time to hang out around Coinstars. I was at a Redbox, waiting for a DVD to pop out, and some old guy with a jar of coins was asking me if I knew how it worked.
What do you tell them? "Hey do you mind if I go through those first? I collect coins?"
Nah, he said "The first thing you have to do is take out all the pre-1965 coins, the machine won't recognize them. Tell ya what, I'll take those off your hands at full face value!"
You can grow your tomatos upside down now; no rabbit problems.
Rabbits is good eatin'.
That's why I use live traps! I let the coons go, of course.
Coons are nasty critters, if you let 'em go, do so from a big distance
Raccoon, properly prepared, is among the tastiest meat in the world.
Hard to get unless you know the right people, though.
If its roadkill you will want to pick it up within the first couple of days, especially in summer
Look out fellers. You don't want to piss off the coon.
Don't tussle with a Mad Raccoon! .
Right you are, Rocky. Coon is right out of the badger family. Pound for pound, the badger is a bad ass critter. A couple well trained badger hounds can handle them though.....the standard dacshund below ground and a good coon hound above.
Mebbe so, Rainman, but this raccoon has a Ruger Mini-14.
Like I said, don't mess with the coon -- unless you can outfit your pups likewise.
Took the daughter to Taco Bell the other day, and paid for the tacos with little wads of paper, as is my custom, and got some change back. Noted that I got three silver dimes in the change. Sat down with daughter and we did a quick calculation that the tacos were free, and that we had netted over a dollar profit. You just about never get silver in change anymore, so the odds of three silver dimes in a row probably meant that they had somehow gotten a roll of silver dimes in the cash register. Wanting to see if I could parlay my winnings into bigger gains, so went back and ordered more tacos, this time calculating to have price just over a round dollar, and asked for change to be paid in dimes. Bingo, got 9 silver dimes. We ate the tacos, and repeated exercise. We did this until they were out of dimes and had to bust another roll into the cash register. Those unfortunately were not silver. Did leave full and with a pocket full of pre-64 dimes.
I figure some teenager probably stole a role of dimes from grandmas dresser, not knowing that the were silver.
lol, awesome...but what a price your poor guts had to pay.
!!!
That's what I was figuring! Awesome story. Zit face behind the counter can't figure it out.
Yeh, sort of like "Money for nothing and your chicks for free", only no free chicks.
...unless it had happened at a Chick-Fil-A.
Chick biscuit's are good for breakfast too...
All this talk of tomatoes, rabbits, 'coons, and tacos would have made me hungry, but I just ate.
I remember the time I went into Taco Hell the after a night at a gentleman's club and had a wallet full of $2 bills.
Kid refused to accept them. Accused me of trying to run a scam. Threatened to call the cops.
"Call 'em, " I said.
He said he'd forget about it if I paid him in another denomination. I told him, "No, you've pissed me off now. Your choices are to take this or lose the sale."
He backed down after a couple of minutes of that, still grumbling.
My niece did that to my mom. She found a tube sock full of silver nickels and gave them to her 8 year old son to buy candy. When my mom found them missing she freaked out and threw my niece out on the street. My niece said too me "I don't know why she was so upset? It's just a bag of nickels"
these people will never understand the value of anything in life.
Those would have been WWII nickels and were 35% silver. Only years made were 1942-5. Worth about $1 each at today's silver spot. Not quite as good as the silver dimes ($1.25 or so). As a dealer I have to know this sort of stuff. Comes in handy.
Silver war nickels are pretty pieces, though, if you get one in nice shape.
So are Mercury dimes. I collected FSBs for a while a decade or so ago... one of the very few varieties that didn't appreciate very much. It was possible to own an MS-67 for a reasonable price.
Mercs are my favorite, the only more beautiful coin is the Walking Liberty. Split bands are nice, but one with a near mirror field would be my pick -- very scarce due to the flow lines created in such a small coin. You have good taste!
I'm not a dealer, but I despise the 1965-70 40% silver-clad Kennedy half dollars. They simply take up too much space for too little buck. Good luck in your cherry picking!
When a man is running from his boss
Who hold a gun that fires "cost"
And people die from being cold
Or left alone because they're old
And bombs are dropped on fighting cats
And children's dreams are run with rats
If you complain you disappear
Just like the lesbians and queers
No one can love without the grace
Of some unseen and distant face
And you get beaten up by blacks
Who though they worked still got the sack
And when your soul tells you to hide
Your very right to die's denied
And in the battle on the streets
You fight computers and receipts
And when a man is trying to change
But only causes further pain
You realize that all along
Something in us all went wrong
You stop dancing.
The Who, 'Helpless Dancer' Quadrophenia 1973
pete always knew what he was talkin' about...
The stuff about Blacks working is a joke, however.
He's just hitting all the Angela Davis high notes: Gender, race AND class. And this was all set in UK 1964; race was a pretty important topic socially. Read 'Subculture: The Meaning of Style' for a thorough tour of racial crossover styles of clothing and music in the UK from the 1950s to 1970s.
(nonsardonicism off)
Guess the market was tired of all the bad news.
Hope, wishes, beliefs -- all great antidotes for facts, data and truth!
Technical bounce. We might test 200 dma in a day or two. There is no way possible the S&P will get over 1150 again this year. Technically, way too much resistance there and by the time we get there, the harsh reality of earnings warnings will begin to really take its toll on equities.
Who are you and where the hell is Harry!!
You are now on record. Expect to be drawn and quartered as dictated by the Market.
me too
There is no way possible the S&P will get under 666 again like last year.
That makes a pretty broad trading range. I'd say you're safe with that spread.
LMAO, +1.
This comment proves that aliens exist, because somewhere out there, the mothership has abducted Harry "the bull" Wanger and replaced it with this bear breath.
Thanks for the prognostication earlier today, Harry. Good to see we've got all the bases covered.
My technicals are saying there's something unexpected and unpredictable that might happen sooner or later.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY
Is that the same as saying nothing expected or predictable is going to happen? Because that's what my technicals are saying. Of course, if you turn the chart this way...
No, it's the same as saying everything is expected and predictable except when it's not.
Crap. If Harry "Mush" Wanger is going short, I may have to go long. Or are you just trying to fade yourself now, Wangster? That never works fyi.
Sold all my long positions when S&P dipped below 1110 as I said I would. Had an SDS position for a couple of days but sold that last Friday. In all cash except precious metals account.
Oh yeah? Well I was 100% long SDS from 1:02PM yesterday until 9:42AM this morning, at which point I went 300% long SSO. I'll tell you tomorrow whether or not I sold my SSO at 3:59PM today.
Wow, can I sign up for your service?? I wanna know how you went 300% long SSO, teach me the secret, I smell a biz opportunity...
You didn't hear? Under the latest stimulus plan investors are now allowed to go naked long. The best part is there's no risk: if there's a crash that might otherwise force you to cover, your counterparty will first be arrested for unpatriotic selling.
I got yer long and nekkid right here....
Ha! Never heard that phrase before, although I've enjoyed a few of them in my life time.
Sorry - I don't care what position he takes now. He'll always be remembered in my eyes as the gambler who took driving lessons from Stevie Wonder. Then again - my thoughts might change next year when the DJI hits 6000..
Hey, we forgot to tell you we we aren't any nicer on the way down than on the way up...we are equal opportunity bashers
If your real name is Ben Bernanke, then you just issued us the "kiss of death".
It was manipulation to create the mirage of a succesful retest of the flash crash lows. I for one welcome the opportunity to load up on discounted puts this week.
If this guy's turning bearish I'm going all in. Dow should be at 20,000 by the Fourth of July.
Harry: Is this simply reverse psychology or are you trying to do your George "The Opposite" Costanza imitation....?
Did you already forget what you said this morning here: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/feds-bullard-says-could-do-more-quantitative-easing-if-us-got-bad-downturn
by HarryWangeron Tue, 05/25/2010 - 09:47
#372151
I think we're going to get a big late day meltdown again to close us below the year lows.
=====
And I reckon you think the PPT charging in with guns ablazin' is a technical bounce. Hope those shorts worked out for ya.
The PPT at 9:42am and again at 2:00pm was just a little too obvious.... Or are we decoupled from the rotw now ?. Yes, that's it. The fundamentals of the economy are strong...
You are a great contrary timing indicator. Thanks for your advice. Keep on.
Master bates used to have the exact same contrarian indicator capability on gold. But someone broke him.
Today was only a delay of the inevitable....trying to slow down the rate of decline in the Euro and in the Dow, etc....that's all there is to it...
Well played, Tim and Ben! 10K is their line in the sand. But whether they expended too much capital and energy today to get it back there we'll see as the week plays out.
Too much capital? Is that even a consideration for these guys at the moment?
No they'll fight for 1070 and 1050 as those are old market stability points. Which means they have manipulation traction there. Whether that traction turns to dust or not is the question.
I don't know what to say. Go short as soon as afterhours starts for futures and go long after the initial 20 point crash in the morning. It's basically an arb move at this point.
More reason to reload the "short" clip. We all saw what happened on Monday from the Fed's last minute buyout from Friday.
LOCK AND LOAD, BOYS - FULL AUTO.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ho4zowaaXI&feature=related
Not this time. The time to short was last week. Shorting here is unwise.
I respectfully disagree. Spain is now showing signs of cracking, the $1 trillion bailout program is basically worthless to the markets at this time, and the Euro will be RIP sooner than later. Also, growth prospects in the US has been mainly fueled by Barry's insistence of spending 2 trillion taxpayer bucks. Please make an argument on why I should go long (or why the upside is greater than the downside).
I agree. Technically theres no reason why you should cover shorts here or go long ahead of a 1089 close. So they achieved a flat close. Big deal. Does it change the fact that the euro is under huge pressure? No. Does it wipe the debt off european sovereigns? No. Nothing really has changed. Swap spreads still finished the day wider, albeit off the wides. Fra/ois still screaming that something is wrong. Its slowed the move down, fine, and gotten the "risk on" fan club excited (yeah, the same guys who were saying buy 50 points higher than here), so what.
Do they really want to commit money at these levels given what is going on? The problem of course is that this market is in fact rigged.
You might be right, you might be wrong. You know what? I have no idea so I took the Chicken Little way out and bought the 106 straddle today and worked out a mild bias to the downside. Was it smart? So far, kind of I am not happy about it and hope to kick the leg tomorow when I know the direction. Until then I am very nimble and bearish, but trying not to be too stupid which is very difficult for me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY
Very dangerous to go short here, rare volume confirmation on the upside. I will go on the record calling a short term bottom here with retest of 1090 and 200 dma (they are getting close together).
Did you parse the up vs. down volume. Volume today was still under thurs/Friday and well blow the flash crash what not. Perhaps it is up from here but not sure it's a safe bet in any direction at this point
I did and that's why I'm cautious here. The up vol wasn't extreme, but more than what we have been seeing over the last year on up days and rebounds. I'm not bullish on this thing. The market action I have seen is nothing like my past 20 years of trading and reeks to high heaven. But my .02 says wait for a fail on resistance or a break below support. Don't want to see anyone run over by turbo timmy again. Note the double tail on the daily too. I might trade the upside on that but bail quickly on any conviction down. Right now, on the sidelines.
but if I lock and load, then the bolt is closed and I'm trying to shove a round into the breach but there is this metal thing in the way! and if I'm on full auto, then I'm going to have to hump another 100 pounds of 5.56 through the sand 6 klicks round trip.
Sgt. Instructor: I'm confused.
-ned
Distribution still underway. Gotta move those big pigs (GE, IBM) with more shares in float than humans on planet.
Hey, whatever happened to the investigation of the 100% payoff to AIG? Why have I heard absolutely nothing for months on that?
Someone or something saved the market from a larger rout today.
Looks like someone from the Fed was reading our ZH posts yesterday about how we mocked them for being away from their desk in the last hour of trading on Monday..
That's not true at all. The market was so tremendously oversold that it was due to bounce. The futures being down was just a red herring/bear trap.
You can check my previous post for the prediction that I made this morning that the S&P would paint a hollow red candle. It actually painted a hollow black candle, since it closed in positive territory.
My point?
Anybody with any understanding of TA at all should have seen this bounce coming.
Is that tits and ass?
No that's technical analysis. It's a ritual exercise involving mood candles. Chart's and graphs and throwing chicken bones meant to give a market participant a sense of confidence that he is sure he knows what he's doing before walking into chaos.
Well, you know, it closed down on a Monday, so ... uh ... manipulation must be a myth! yeah, that's the ticket ...!
There were rumors of an additional stimulus package coming from the administration.
Dont worry, folks. Ben, the Printeminator, takes care of everything ;p
Get to the choppa!
Way I see it with tiny timmy handing the EU a bag of marshmallows to do bank stress testing and its/billery beatin feet to Beijing? The paper ponzi fiat currency crowd is looking bleak if all assets are in paper!! Ashes! Ashes! We all fall down when all we have is paper to exchange for monetary stores of value!!
Short term bottom may be in. Looking for a rally back to Dow 10500-10600.
Sounds about right to me.
There is no choice, they will reflate risks assets much, much higher. Capitalism does not work well under deflation. We need inflation. Pensions need inflation. Inflate all that debt away! Get ready for a series of MONSTER BUBBLES.
You mean 'corporatism' or 'massive deficitism', or something. Capitalism doesn't require ever-expanding debt to work.
But yeah, whatever it is we have now, they have to keep inflating to keep it from contracting the way nature demands.
as usual, baseless nonsense with no fact
if you want to make these arguments, do the math.
how much debt has to come out of the system? how much has money supply increased?
price of oil pretty strong argument that your "thesis" is just hot air absurdity
I agree they will do everything in their power to reflate. At some point it will be beyond their power.
Free market capitalism works just fine under deflation. It's ponzi fractional reserve banking that does not work under deflation.
And how do you propose they inflate? Short of sticking a few grand into everyones account, inflation has no where to go but dddddd down.
Mortgage rates are at near record lows, still no one bothers to refi (or they can't). FFR at near zero % and no one cares. UST yields hammered lower, bond market remains on fire.
Although the illusion of reflation in this environment seems plausible, possible if not probable, the fact is that it's just an illusion.
Cash up and wait for the bottom. FR Notes bitchez.
Leo, I'm surprised someone apparently as knowledgeable as yourself makes such a common error over and over. What is going on today will not do anything for pensions or for debt repayment because they are not "printing money" they are issuing debt. It's a zero-sum game at best. Rolling over old debt by issuing new debt does not reduce the level of debt. There will be no "monster bubbles" as you say. What they will find to their utter frustration is that they can't inflate any new bubbles at all.
Capitalism does not work well under deflation. We need inflation. Pensions need inflation. Inflate all that debt away! Get ready for a series of MONSTER BUBBLES.
Such nonsense! Denninger hit the nail on the head with the following example:
"If you "own" a $500,000 house but have a $500,000 mortgage, you in fact own nothing and have no prosperity. You have the trappings of wealth but not the actualization of it. If that valuation is not supported by underlying economic facts, then when (not if) it collapses you find that you not only have nothing you have less than nothing as the vacuum cleaner is attached to your wallet, job, life and soul and sucks you into the black hole of debt on the other end."
Leo, don't you mean that left wing liberal socialist welfare states do not work well under deflation. For such a smart guy, sometimes you write some serious nonsense.
Come on guys. Any trader knows the market very rarely goes in a straight line, up or down. Yes, everything is terrible, but that is no reason to just keep shorting at this point. Wait a bit. This looks like a shakeout day.
Yeah, wait till the ECB cuts rates and Timmy and the Euro gangstas conjure up new ways to reflate risk assets. Give it up, the game is rigged towards the upside.
I knew you would pop up when we went back over 10k. *junk*
After yesterday's sell off on pretty average volume, it felt like there may be some change in the air. Today's selling in the futures then markets, never felt like panic. All technicals right now but I stand by my call that 1150 will not be broken to the upside again this year.
That hair shirt is gonna get really hot and uncomfortable, Harry.
Remember Mr. Wanger's 'psychological experiment'? Likely this is meant to be Phase 2, when he starts telling the bears what they want to hear.
who gives a rats ass about your call.. market is rigged all the way up from 666 to 1220.. the show is on until FED gets broken..
The S&P fell nearly 15% peak to low this morning in one month. That's a pretty steep and fast fall. Too fast. Market, technically, needs to bounce a bit. It shouldn't be a big surprise to anyone here. When the real drop comes, it'll be a much slower death by a thousand cuts, not this nuclear stuff we're seeing now.
But you don't know when the slow death is setting in because it is filled with periodic small rallies that serve as head fakes.
Per last sentence, I guess someone else has studied the long leg of the great depression's chart.
Wanna bet? When every crook needs to get out fast and all the computer programs respond at near the same time, it will go down so fast it will make your pubes twirl.
Hey, Harry. Your village called. They want you back.
LOL, just got that one! Harry's turning around so fast, he's going to need some dramamine
It's a Festivus Miracle, Bitchez!
Don't know who's buying, other than SNB, but the Asian Banks appear to be unloading their stash of Euros.
Asian central bank sells EUR rally
http://www.forexlive.com/108939/all/asian-central-bank-sells-eur-rally
'The race is not to the swift nor to the strong' keep your powder dry...by the time we reach the point of fair value the markets will have evaporated most peoples money. When money is scarce then is the time to buy.
Even Bears were looking for a bounce, so I don't think this is that dramatic. Give it a few days to breathe and see if we bust 1120 with conviction.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY
PPT in da hizzouse.
Busy day for the PPT:
Buy the Euro
Buy GS
Buy the SPY
Short JPY
Wow. What a busy busy day.
I have done extensive research into market behavior. I have personally bankrolled this research.
My theory.... that markets fluctuate on many time scales.... has been very controversial in halls of the University of Chicago. Nobel Prize winners have both applauded me and shouted me down.
However, my latest paper, "An Observational Proof that Markets Fluctuate on Multiple Time Scales" will soon be published in a major economics journal.
I expect to be on the academic lecture circuit very soon. I need your support.
I'm looking for a job too. I have not been able to apply my theory in any way which earns money (paper or gold...pick your favorite). Thus the world may loose a great genius to obscurity if I can not continue to fund my own research.
Please voice your support of my theory and show up to my lectures. Please help me with those shouting Nobel Laureates who wish to use formulas and textbooks to discredit my theory.
I just know I'm right.
I see your odds at 50-50, just like everybody else's.
Thanks for the chuckle.
I watch young traders moving into the righteous position of fortitude of awesomeness. Here's all I can say.
Sure <pat pat>, here's a cookie now put in your stop loss, shut up and get off that crate. Someone needs the wood.
Wall Street is running out of tricks. The only way they can make money is via short Squeezes, false rumors and typical SEC endorsed mafia tactics by purchasing political power. Their days are numbered. I am about to donate a few dollars to ZH for the cause because they need our support but im sorry to say Ben stole the rest between 12-4 by crashing my FAZ.
You guys don't seem to get it...
I NEED THE MARKET TO GO DOWN! I don't want to sell my puts... can't I just double them one more time?
I'll buy a lot of financials with the proceeds ones the DOW is at 9000. I promise.
...he screamed into the dark abyss. The returning silence was deafening.
I don't see why this so-called PPT is necessary. The exchange is run by big banks that have virtually unlimited credit.
A day like this is business as usual for the exchange. Insiders were able to shake out enough stock early in the day to make a late rally profitable.
Now, if I could only find a way to get my hands on one of those floor trader handheld devices.
Each stick save (or in today's case, saucer save), allows the smart money to get out at a better price than will exist in a few months (or even weeks). Also, nice how the NYSE's morning problems probably helped to keep selling pressure and volume contained.
Remember the relentless grind from late summer into fall of 2008 when every Tom, Dick and Harry would jump on "the market's oversold and due for a bounce" moment. But the teaser, muted bounces never morphed into anything truly meaty (except for additional shorting opportunities). Looks like we're there, whistling past the graveyard, yet again.
so they delayed the crash by a few days?
The only thing you need to follow is the Libor, it doesn't matter what the FED does, or what they try to manipulate, it won't matter. The Libor rate will tell you when the ultimate crash comes for the banks. If you notice today's action, the banks were being propped up from the very start. We all know it was the FED, no other morons would be buying in the wake of imminent collapse, unless you were using money that was not yours to begin with.
The Libor has been climbing like Jack up the beanstalk. The markets will and always do, decide. FED has no control over Libor at all, and there is nothing they can do to stop it from rising if the markets push it higher. It will reach the point soon, where banks will get slaughtered. When you see banks lead the way down, then you know we are heading to S&P under 500.
+1. Great post.
Amen,
If the cash locks up in the banks, it's game over.
Yes. LIBOR creeping from a 2.7 to a 3.1 . Methinx it was 3.6 for the Lehman meltdown.
What number do you see as the "Get the hell out of the water now, that's no dolphin" number?
2010