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"On The Ground" First Person Report On Chinese Inflation

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A Zero Hedge reader writes from the ground in China, and shares his first person perspective on just how real inflation has become in the world's most populous and thus most price margin sensitive, country.

Inflation is HUGE. In every way and is so noticeable in daily life that we talk about it, well, everyday as everything we buy is rapidly increasing in price. The thing is, is that it doesn't affect my life that badly, except for my rent that increased 10% (which was low, compared to the city-wide 20% increase in 2010), because I'm in a high income level, for local Chinese standards. For example, a bowl of dumplings I typically get for lunch has gone from 3rmb ($0.44) to 4rmb ($0.59). That's a 25% increase and happened in one day. Again, clearly in USD terms you can see that doesn't bother me, but for the average Chinese, it kills them. Veggies have gone up 60% in some cases. In such drastic instances, portion sizes are decreasing rapidly to keep prices level. Got a salad the other day from a western restaurant I got to a lot and my friends and I agreed it was about 1/2 the normal size. As I'm sure you've heard, the gov is putting out price controls and subsidies, which is dumb because it will only delay inflation and the subsidies are only encouraging more inflation. At the same time, without some sort of price relief, the income gap is just going to widen. Perhaps if the gov hadn't been handing out free money to people for the last 10 years to boost growth and raise living standards at such a lightening speed pace, inflation wouldn't be quite as bad as it is today. 

So that's my report on inflation from on the ground in China.

 

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Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:06 | 898602 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

 

No wonder PMs are disappearing from the shelves; 6 more months of this and the PM market worldwide will have an epiphany (let's hope).

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:44 | 898755 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture
"On The Ground" First Person Report On Chinese Inflation

 

The question is, how long will bureaucrats of the Chinese communist party be able to keep the yuan's exchange rate artificially low, in a centrally planned fashion.

They will sooner or later face the realities of economics, the realities of physics and, if food riots elsewhere are any indication, the realities of angry mobs burning the ruling elite's homes.

If it happens they will have no-one else but themselves to blame - they have trillions of reserves and are still devaluing their currency in a predatory fashion?

If the yuan was traded in a free market, non-manipulated, trade-balanced fashion it would be roughly 30%-40% stronger than it is today - and the average Chinese household would not pay 40% for its food but probably only 20%. (as not only would externally controlled prices be lower, but their wages would be worth more as well.)

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:48 | 898803 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Btw., as a reply to the GOP/libertarian talking point "but the Fed is printing money!", you need to learn a bit more about how the Chinese keep the yuan devalued: they are printing about 2-3 trillion dollars worth of yuans, per year.

Non-sterilized Chinese currency manipulation and capital controls scheme puts the Fed's (largely sterilized!) money printing in shade.

They do this despite having absolutely no reason to ease monetarily: the Chinese have an over-heated economy that is blowing bubbles as we speak, they have no significant unemployement, they have rapidly rising inflation and they have very low wages. Compare that to the US, which has every reason to do monetary easing: a depressed economy, high unemployment and deflation risks.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:08 | 899068 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

 they are printing about 2-3 trillion dollars worth of yuans, per year.

 

The bit of difference: effects are mainly felt in China, contrary to the US, that is flushing away their problems onto the world.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 17:56 | 899512 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Where did you get this "leave the poor Chinese communists alone, blame the bad lazy US workers for their troubles!" nonsense from - new GOP talking points, or a new Ron Paul memo?

Facts are showing the exact opposite: the bad effects of massive, state-controlled, centrally planned protectionism by the Chinese Communist Party are being felt everywhere else in the world: what China does amounts to dumping cheap, authoritarian dictatorship sponsored slave labor on pretty much every other labor market in the world.

The effects are massive: estimates are that these protectionist efforts have moved at least 1.3 million jobs to China from the US alone. What China does is not voluntary: there is no natural mechanism through which a free market economy like the US can protect itself against such aggressive mercantilism - unless you are arguing for steep punitive import tariffs on Chinese goods ...

In comparison, the easing the Fed does is not only a couple of times smaller, it is also based on justified macro-economic need (high unemployment and looming deflation in the US - none of which is the case for China), and it is also entirely voluntary: it's not like developing nations are forced to accept excess liquidity.

No, developing nations are in fact soliciting foreign investments to their free markets, and a fair portion of foreign capital is being used to build up their economies and improves the standard of living there. It's called "foreign investments" for a reason.

Their policy makers might be (rightfully) concerned about a portion of foreign investments causing bubbles, but it's not like they were forced to accept those monies - they are offering public shares in companies and they use free-floating currencies. If there's any bad bubble developing isn't it better to let it pop sooner rather than later, and fix whatever economic structure allowed that bubble to form?

So please grow some brains and start using it already!

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:58 | 899236 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

China makes stuff that people want to buy.  The US destroys stuff that people want to keep.

Enough said.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 14:43 | 899451 woolly mammoth
woolly mammoth's picture

chumbawamba, why do you choose to be a poseur?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 15:46 | 899721 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I don't know.  I guess to give intellectually challenged douchebags like yourself an easy target.

Do you feel less irrelevant now?

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:58 | 898811 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

The chinese monetary base is exploding, and they have a mountain of bad debt waiting to be liquidated. The equation is not as simple as you portray it.

Besides, a 40% appreciation in the currency would not lead to a reduction from 40 to 20% from the pure maths aspect alone.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:04 | 898829 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Indeed the 40%->20% figure I cited is just a guesstimate and the real result might be anything between 35% and 15%.

Agreed wrt. the Chinese monetary base: what the Chinese are doing is equivalent to printing a massive amount of money to keep the yuan devalued - on an enormous scale that puts the Fed's easing efforts into shade.

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:14 | 898869 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

It's also a convenient way of not having to liquidate bad debts, of which up to 25% of all business loans are, according to some estimates.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:46 | 898977 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Bad loan write-downs are probably partly financed via the artificial spread between the savings rate (to ordinary Chinese citizens, which rates are artificially low) and the business loans (which rates are artificially high).

I.e. it's taxpayer financed and because there's no competition to CCP controlled banks those spreads do not go down.

That is good in a sense - it makes the financial system more resilient and absorbs loan losses / bubbles to a certain degree - at least in theory.

It's bad in another sense - central planning makes their behavior largely correlated and decreases transparency in practice - so the systemic risk of having unknowable unknowns (tons of bad loan) increases :-)

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:51 | 898999 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Except, of course, the banks haven't yet written down loans on any significant scale.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:59 | 899025 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

How do we know that? Statistics of failure released by authoritarian dictatorships (such as China) are generally highly doctored. The low-level statistics are usually pretty accurate, but only a very elite circle of high party officials is allowed to see the summaries.

But yes, if the past gives us any idea I'd too argue that in such circumstanced doomed projects are still being pursued, until the very last possible moment and some more.

A wikileak of raw Chinese economic data would be really useful :-)

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:28 | 899132 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Here is an interesting take on what exploding food prices might do:

Competitive Currency Appreciation

… spiking food prices will likely cause competitive currency appreciation.
Foreign exchange reserves exist for just this time of emergency. Central banks around the world will lower domestic food prices by either directly selling off their reserves to appreciate their currencies or by using them to purchase grain on the world market.

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-food-riots-and-the-mass-...

The Author points out that this will be very bad for the World Reserve Currency

Woof

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:14 | 898872 bonddude
Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:28 | 898938 bonddude
Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:30 | 898944 bonddude
Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:49 | 898773 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

What city/district?

China is a large and populous country.

Just because real estate in Pacific Palisades is strong, does not mean Detroit is on the rebound.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:06 | 898604 Fred123
Fred123's picture

Wonder if China will hyperinflate before the US does.....

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:09 | 898622 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Well, they bought foreing assets with their newly printed money.

Who cares if they hyperwhatever.

 

CAN YOU IMAGINE WHAT A IPAD WILL COST IF THEY HYPERSTUFFYOUKNOWWHATIMEAN!!

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:19 | 898671 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

why do you think we are cozying up to Vietnam?  They will produce our ipads once china bites the big one.  That big black QE monster that BEN keeps shoving down their throat.  They seem to like it so keep it up Ben.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:54 | 898764 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Uh oh, you need real gold to buy real estate in Vietnam, not paper 'gold'.

http://www.buyassociation.co.uk/property/text/vietnam/buyassociation/buying-a-property-in-vietnam.html

"The other major difference in the buying process in Vietnam is that all transactions are carried out in pure gold. While this seems like a quirky and antiquated system, it means that any buyer in Vietnam needs to keep a very close eye on the cost of metals for the best time to buy, as the fluctuating markets could make your property suddenly much more expensive."

And then some. Doesn't seem quirky or anitquated to me...

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 14:58 | 899510 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Except that a foreigner can't do that.

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 02:14 | 901774 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

I think that may depend on who the foreigner is.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:10 | 898613 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

IT'S GREAT TO BE!!

 

a chinese....

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 14:52 | 899482 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I am fixed for life SD!  Just got the following email from... wait for it... The Bernank!

Get a load o' this:

Bank Federal Reserve Board
33 Liberty Street, New York, Ny 10038,
United States Of America

Attn: Fund beneficiary,

Contract Fund Credit From Bank Federal Reserve Board

This Is To Let You Know That We Received A Payment Credit Instruction From The Federal Government Of Nigeria To Credit Your Account With Your Full Contract Fund Of Us$10.5million From The Nigerian Reserve Account With Our Bank.

However, What We Required From You Is Your Banking Particulars Where You Want Your Fund To Be Transferred.

{1}. Your Full Name And Address:
{2}. Your Telephone, And Fax Numbers:
{3). Your Bank Name And Address:
{4). Your A/C Name And A/c Numbers:
(5). Your Swift Code / Routing Numbers:
(6) .Your Current Occupation:

Be Informed That Transfer Will Commence Immediately We Hear From You With The Account Information.
Once More, Bank Federal Reserve Board Will Not Hesitates To Credit Your Account Within 24hours In Accordance With Fund Release Order Regulations.

Your Immediate Response Is Highly Needed To Enable Us Commence For The Transfer.

Congratulation To Your Contract Fund.

Best Regards,

Mr. Ben S. Bernanke
Chairman Federal Reserve Board

Whodathunk that The Bernank and the Nigerians were so coordinated?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:08 | 898615 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

3rmb to 4 rmb is a 33% increase, not 25%.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:12 | 898633 billwilson
billwilson's picture

That just proves he's a Westerner, not a Chinese.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:15 | 898653 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Cheers from Brazil where foodstuffs go up every week and portions get smaller.

- Hungry Trillionaire

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:02 | 898822 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Look, there is no inflation. How many times do Bernanke have to tell you this?

From his place in the ivory tower, a loaf of bread has increased from 0.000000001% to 0.0000000011% of his annual income. See? Insignificant.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 15:52 | 899735 sushi
sushi's picture

Los Angeles — McDonald’s Corp. plans to raise prices this year to help offset an expected rise in its grocery bill for the 10 commodities that account for around 75 per cent of its food preparation costs.

Food prices are rising around the globe and the world’s biggest restaurant chain expects its costs to rise 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent this year in the United States and 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent in Europe.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:10 | 898627 Peterpaul
Peterpaul's picture

Please note that prices ALWAYS increase substantially in the weeks before the Chinese new year. That is not to say China is not experiencing inflation in everything but births of second children, but keep in mind this is a cyclical condition. I lived in China, specifically Hang Zhou and Shanghai, from 2001-2006 and every year the prices increased for raw foods products in the month of the Chinese New Year, only to have the prices drop in the month after...

That said, my contacts in China say prices have gotten ridiculous.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:20 | 898900 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

Within the last year, some of my China hands who seemingly have multiple apartments/homes in; Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Shenyang all went silent about how great their real estate fortunes are.  Some of those guys who would call every day are down to a text message per quarter. Hubris.

Did anyone see that Lang Lang China piano stunt at the White House?  Let that be your green shoot for China and your personal prospects therein, along with ICBC buying into Bank of East Asia for $140MM and the yuan accounts.  Owned.  Does that translate as "Gouyou"?  Wait till BOA goes hat in hand to BOC.  The BOC GM guys must be humiliated.  But then again, its all good fun merrily hunting 'jackals' together.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 15:01 | 899524 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Maybe they're simply too busy spending the proceeds.

There's been little (or rather no) talk of falling real estate prices. If you disagree, post your source.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:11 | 898629 Sweedumz
Sweedumz's picture

Needs more figures. Get this guy to do a few ZH interviews with the locals. Put things in more perspective. It's investigative journalism worthy of a T-shirt at least!

 

I note this is one of the few (scant) ground level reports from China on the inflation subject. You shouldn't pass up an opening Tyler!

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:35 | 898730 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

think of his safety

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:12 | 898635 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

RIOT BITCHEZ!!!!

CHINESE STYLE!! BRING IN BREUCE LEE!!!

 

WHOOAAAAAAA!!!!

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:14 | 898648 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Bruce Lee is utterly useless in Modern China. The police can shoot you with machine guns.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:17 | 898662 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Jackie chan can dodge those bullets by jumping up fences and over buildings in a single bound.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:58 | 898812 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

He wouldn't have to, he's a commie now

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:21 | 898677 lead salad
lead salad's picture

Or they can just bring in the tanks.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:12 | 898638 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

For example, a bowl of dumplings I typically get for lunch has gone from 3rmb ($0.44) to 4rmb ($0.59). 

A 3rmb bowl of dumplings is only 100g. Is the author on a diet?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:19 | 898667 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Not everyone eats like a fat Amelican.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:15 | 898874 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

15 cents won't kill them. I wouldn't even pick up the change if food would cost that much over here :)

A lauzy spagetti already costs 22 euro without drinks over here!

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:24 | 898919 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Good point Sudden Debt. For if a "new" player sits down wanting to play the high-roller game, then they'd best be ready to ante up. It's part of the game, part of bankroll management.  

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:12 | 898640 TorchFire
TorchFire's picture

You know it's bad when you are concerned you may not be able to sustain your daily lunch of dumplings.  Perhaps we should all start refining our palates....McDumpling anyone?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:12 | 898642 alter ego
alter ego's picture

China is loosing the currency war against US.

US is exporting inflation all over the world in a

faster rate than the countries can tolerate or

control.

China is waiting, but I believe they wont

de-peg their currency with the US dollar, I think

they would prefer to start a real confrontation

with America using their proxy dog (NKorea)

before accept the terms and conditions from

Washington.

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:17 | 898659 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

I sense the onset of another WORLD WAR

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:42 | 898761 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Guess who plays the role of Germany this time...

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:47 | 898767 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

America? Yah, I can see that.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:20 | 899095 ivars
ivars's picture

True. And China is the USSR.

Who is United states now? Europe, especially Germany.

Who is Poland? Japan. Or India.

Who is Austria? Canada.

Who is Czekh? Mexico.

Who is Italy? Russia, I think. Russia is like Italy and Japan together.

Who is Baltic states? Taiwan. Finland-South Korea.

Who is Europe? Latin America.

But this will not happen anytime soon. Things will start with Iran, 2014, my bet. Division of Central Asia. From there till WWIII it may take more than 20-30 years.

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:12 | 899078 pitz
pitz's picture

Fire up the gas chambers, dump all the H1-B's, Green Card holders, and illegals in first.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:44 | 899188 Thoreau
Thoreau's picture

We're all illegals. Your standing on stolen property as we speak.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:58 | 899239 pitz
pitz's picture

We most certainly are not 'illegals'.  And the property isn't stolen.  My ancestors bought it from the Indians, fair and square. 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 14:42 | 899409 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

hahahaha...<Wipes tear> 'fair and square', haahahahah! Please, stop, you're killin' me.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 14:55 | 899498 sushi
sushi's picture

Spoken like a true Red Man.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 15:25 | 899574 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Perhaps, though I'm as pointy nosed as the next white guy. So at best: an advocate.

 Then again I'm not sure what colour you have to be to consider genocide 'fair and square'.

From: "Indians" and Animals: A Comparative Essay

"...Indians received not only similar descriptions to those given predatory animals, but much the same treatment as well. George Washington, revered as the father of the country, wrote that Indians "...were wolves and beasts who deserved nothing from the whites but 'total ruin'" (Stannard, p. 241). Thomas Jefferson, acclaimed proponent of freedom and democracy, argued that the United States government was obliged "...to pursue [Indians] to extermination, or drive them to new seats beyond our reach" (quoted in Takaki, 1979, p. 103). Andrew Jackson, founder of the modern Democratic Party and greatest(sic) Indian(sic) killer of all American Presidents, urged United States troops "...to root out from their 'dens' and kill Indian women and their 'whelps'" (Stannard, p. 240). Jackson was so effective at rooting women and "whelps" from their "dens," he adopted the habit of cutting off his victims' noses as trophies to commemorate his exploits. He earned the name "Sharp Knife" from Creek Indians for his penchant for skinning victims and using the cured and braided tissue as reins for his ponies (Takaki, 1994)."

By David P. Rider, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Psychology
Xavier University of Louisiana

The US five dollar bill venerates this mass murdering psychopath. Jackson continued to support these policies, even after his life was saved by a member of the first nations.

Regards 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 15:37 | 899679 sushi
sushi's picture

Israel and USA. The only two nations founded on genocide.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 17:20 | 900059 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Congrats, you're an idiot too.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 17:18 | 900056 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Wow, so says an Associate Professor of Psychology. Say no more, you stupid git. You're an advocate? Right, more like someone who is convinced your pathetic self hatred is somehow noble. Don't let me stop you from patting yourself on the back, moron.

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 02:00 | 901671 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

So you'd have us believe that a wanna-be Mensa member like yourself has more of a window into documented historical fact than the good PhD from Louisiana (not to mention all the sources quoted)? And your only proof of this is an entirely irrelevant personal attack on someone you obviously know absolutely nothing about?

Heh.

Erm, you're gonna have to do a helluva lot better than that my duped little jingoist.

<pat pat>

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 11:55 | 902716 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Not entirely. I'd have you believe that anyone with a little knowledge of American history, which happens to include myself but not you or your chimp, would have more of a window into documented historical fact than a PhD psychologist. I guess attacking his qualifications, which you rely on for arguing he can't be questioned, is irrelevant only part of the time. 

Wow, you must be a Mensa member yourself.

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 12:57 | 902838 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Well at some point even a Doctor of Psychology had to do some research and read a few books...you should try giving it a shot sometime.

And (as it seems to be necessary I'll repeat) all the sources quoted that make up most of the article, all bunk too, I suppose? Or not. So, yeah, I'm much more inclined to take the word of Dr.Rider and his erudite colleagues as containing more truth than the inane blather of some anonymous interwebs jingoist like yourself. That doesn't seem very surprising or unreasonable when you think about it for a second now does it?

"I'd have you believe that anyone with a little knowledge of American history..."

I think I see your problem: "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing." You need to work on that.

 It seems the only one who isn't allowed to be questioned here, in your tiny mind anyway, is you.

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 14:39 | 903383 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

You guess he read some history in his studies? Do you have any idea what the standard program looks like for a PhD in psychology? I'll give you a hint: history is not a big part of it. Again, the whole disconnect between a PhD in psychology and knowledge of history seems completely lost to you. To completely base the merit of a statement on qualifications while also claiming that the disconnect between the qualifications and statement are irrelevant truly is a dousy.

If you only knew how truly ridiculous your taunts are. I'll just rely on common sense logic for this argument instead of my degree.

By the way, there is an endless supply of references throughout the scientific literature that will support just about any position. That doesn't make it true. Someone who sees references and assumes that makes the statements true shouldn't be mocking other people's cognitive abilities. The same goes for someone who sees a PhD in psychology and assumes that whatever that person says is the truth.

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 18:10 | 904098 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Believe it or not, I am trying to help you.

"Third time pays for all" they say, so I'll give you one last chance Mensa-man:

Firstly, Profs are obligated to continue research the entirety of their careers, this does not end once they have achieved their PhD. Apparently you claim to have a 'degree' of some sort, so it seems very odd to me that I am having to point this out. Are you seriously trying to maintain that Dr.Rider wrote the essay I referenced above 'off the top of his head'? I mean, he has even clearly  labelled the source of each quote for all to see for crying out loud!

Secondly (actually this is the 3rd freaking time I have had to ask you this, you pillock): are you disputing the verity of the sources of the quotes that Dr.Rider ref'd? If so, please don't waste any more of my time with what must surely be either another stupidly irrelevant rant or deliberately evasive response.

If you had bothered to find/read the article from which the excerpt was taken, which you could have done with the tiniest modicum of effort, you'd know that it is, in fact, a paper directly in Dr.Rider's line; ie an essay on the subject of psychology. But I am beginning to fear that you are incapable of even that miniscule bit of fact-checking; though from the prolific responses you've managed to compile on this thread it's pretty obvious that you have more than enough time on your hands.

Also (again I feel I need to repeat this on the off-chance it can work through your unbelievably thick skull) the quotes referenced are well documented historical fact, not the opinion of Dr.Rider. This also is easily verifiable for anyone who has a reason to look, which, even though you seem to have no idea that this is the case, you do.

So, you see I am NOT 'seeing someone with a PhD in psychology and assuming that whatever he says is the truth'. I am arriving at a conclusion based on undisputed (except by omniscient you, apparently) historical record provided by a wide variety of sources, neatly compiled by a guy with a PhD writing an essay on his subject of expertise.

YOU, on the other hand, are disregarding facts merely presented by Dr.Rider, and you are doing this based on your own self-admitted, and painfully obvious,  'little knowledge' solely because you are being shown some matters of historical record that you don't like.

BUt that's what jingoists do, I guess. Stupid or smart. I suppose the difference is that at least the wiley ones are half decent at it, which you definitely are not, until the truth inevitably and undeniably exposes the lie they are attempting to defend.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 21:35 | 901089 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

All the finns ($5 FRNs) in my wallet have a picture of Abe Lincoln on them...WTF??

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 01:47 | 901683 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Whoops, 4X that veneration!

 (Damn, I just knew I was paying too much for my drinks at the LA X. Cursed dim lighting and monochromaticish ink on FRN's.)

Oh well, that hardly alters any relevant historical facts. I'm sure tarsubil will confirm for you that his 'hero' A Jackson 'Sharp Knife' was thrice the man and then some of ol' Honest Abe anyway.

Regards

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 14:57 | 903456 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Oh, I love it. What is the essay that this quote is taking from all about? Friggin' Indian names used for sports teams. Oh, please, I apologize! How could I question someone who makes a job of writing essays with references to all manner of commie pinko f***** groupies within academia all for the purpose of saving Indians from being used as mascots? I'm so ashamed!

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 22:39 | 904222 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

You should be, but at least now we're getting somewhere. Thanks for the flash of true colour.

I didn't care much for Dr.Rider's theme or execution either, truth be told.

But, as I have been trying to get through that rock you call a head for awhile now, that hardly changes the facts that he presented, and you have yet to address.

How long is it going to take you to comprehend? Who cares about Dr. Rider? Forget about him.  It's the facts he referenced that count in this discussion. IE Even if a callous right wing loony like yourself tells me 2+2 = 4, just because you're a fool doesn't make it false.

Seriously, I am beginning to wonder how anyone can truly be as addle minded as you and still manage to get on the interwebs. Are you just being obtuse as a means of denial, or attempting a deliberate misdirection... who knows? Get help dude.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:13 | 898643 Jerry Maguire
Jerry Maguire's picture

Does anyone think the Chinese would support my constitutional amendment idea, since in getting our own house in order, eliminating debt and restoring the gold standard at $27,300 per ounce we would stop exporting inflation to them?

http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2011/01/15/amending-the-constitution-t...

http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2011/01/15/us-constitution-28th-amendm...

http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2011/01/15/28th-amendment-first-and-se...

http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2011/01/16/28th-amendment-section-3/

There's a few other posts, too.  How do I contact the Chinese central bank?  Maybe they'd like to help.

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:13 | 898646 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Zero Hedge. World Wide coverage. Gotta luv it.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:17 | 898649 Hard1
Hard1's picture

Dude, those are cheap dumplings, do you think you can send a container to the US?.....I love the basket of goods that you have chosen for your Expat Consumer Price Index (ECPI) btw, sounds very representative

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:19 | 898669 alter ego
alter ego's picture

I don't know.

Maybe you would like to check upfront what is

inside those dumplings.

Is good to know that melamine is good for your

bones!

http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/melamine-in-milk.html

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:15 | 898654 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Look I may be a troll but I know a few things.  I was the first to start talking about how QE will kill the chinese.  We can handle inflation a lot longer than they can.  We may not like Bernank and Timmah but they are card sharks compared to those rubes running China.  Sit on your pile of copper while it goes down half in price China.  Do the same thing you did a couple of years ago with oil purchase contracts.  JPM about to kill china now.  Just watch.  You can also look on past quotes and I was the first to mention that we are about to go into a deflationary scare for a while.  Whether or not this is a diabolical plan or just normal sentiment gyrations,  the big playas know how to play it, and they will kill china longs.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:16 | 898657 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Like I said previously I am very confused.  If the enemy of my enemy is my friend does that mean I should root for JPM?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:44 | 898778 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Sounds like you may be your own worst enemy; know your enemy.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:24 | 898689 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Member 4 weeks and change.  QE2 announced months ago. Where were you pontificating, exactly -- your shower?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:04 | 898831 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

The main problem is, if you open a chinese bank vault, there is no gold or silver there, there is just lines in the sand from Ben and IOUs from developers.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:05 | 898837 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

When the US attempted to pull this "inflation export" to Europe in the late 60'es, the French promptly requested delivery of Gold.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:22 | 898908 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Which eventually led to Nixon removing any link between the dollar and gold. Oil was substituted, which explains much of our Middle Eastern policy since then. For instance, check out the US votes on UN resolutions dealing with the Israeli/Palestinian issue before and after. Quite a change.

But, of course, our military interventions in the Middle East are all about terrorism, women's rights, and Freeeeeedom for all (aka Truth, Justice and the American Way).

Right...

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:33 | 898954 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Exactly.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:37 | 899162 thefedisscam
thefedisscam's picture

You logic does NOT make sense. why would JPM wants to kill China, who is NOW pretty much the ONLY goose laying golden eggs for them, and pretty much for ALMOST ALL the U.S. big companies!

70% of the profit of the Big U.S. companies are made from China!

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:17 | 898660 Ras Bongo
Ras Bongo's picture

But, but, but, The Bernank said that there is no inflation. How is that possible? The Chinese must lie.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:23 | 898686 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

in case you want to see "Mind-boggling" levels of strange spending, propaganda and planned economy style, take a look at this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1339536/Ghost-towns-China-Satell...

Waste? Who the heck knows? Can there be a plan in such madness, at this scale?

It is not wonder the crash is imminent. Those cities are Amazing to look at. Empty?

Like serving a six course meal every day, three times a day to an empty table for a million and then throwing everything the next morning to do a wash, rinse etc.

And everything the Zh member sent in can be said for India, dat other little BRIC in the wall.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/21/accidental-lives/

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:32 | 898717 alter ego
alter ego's picture

Shh...., please don't say to anybody.

Those Chinese ghost towns were made to

receive all westerners before the 2012 Mayan

Calendar end date.

 

For your information

 The end date us: 12/21/2012

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 02:46 | 901797 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

appreciating your TiC, 2012 might be the year, but on whose calendar?

put differently, i think Nostradamas was/is right, they just pegged it to the wrong cultural calendar...

no doubt, the end is near. again. (repent!)

:^)

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 05:16 | 901798 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

dupe

Tue, 01/25/2011 - 02:30 | 901776 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Speaking of 'Ghost Towns'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ghost_towns_in_the_United_States

and propaganda...

Don't worry about having to move to China in 2012, there's plenty of empty villages in a wasteland near you. Or, if you prefer, I think FEMA has some camps in the planning stages too, should some more or less (well, more, by you) unforeseen disasters strike your region . There'll be 'work' there too!

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:27 | 898703 RagnarDanneskjold
RagnarDanneskjold's picture

On the ground in Beijing: Inflation is running about 20% in food items. If the prices didn't jump 20%, portions declined by 10% and prices went up 10%. The street vendors are mainly holding the line on prices, but portions are shrinking. Still 6 kuai for 20 dumplings from the night vendors all over the street.

The Chinese press has covered it well, here are some articles:

http://investinginchinesestocks.blogspot.com/2010/12/chinese-hoard-goods...

I don't remember if ZeroHedge covered the Chinese high school students that trashed their cafeteria over food prices, that was back in November. 

http://news.qq.com/a/20101125/000692.htm#p=3

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:40 | 898750 Cookie
Cookie's picture

Not only China, food inflation is rife across most of Asia.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:52 | 898785 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Let them eat (rice) cake.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:29 | 898704 nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

Wow, hard to refute the facts when one store has increased the cost of their dumplings by 1rmb and another place is serving smaller salads.

Surely there's more comprehensive actual inflation numbers somewhere than a bowl of dumplings and a salad?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:54 | 899220 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

That was good for a good belly laugh Ned.

Thanks.

ORI

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:31 | 898714 partimer1
partimer1's picture

two important things to remember dealing with anything chinese:

 

1), China will follow USA in anything.

2), Chinese government lies about anything. 

The first one is that ever since they discover they can print money and make people happy, PRINTING they started. there is no basic reference as to how much things should cost. a pound of chinese tea can cost $1000, and a bottl of chinese liquor can go for $2000. you can see all kinds of crazy things on chinese TV. In the late 1940s, a pack of cigarrette was 60K of whatever the moeny they were using.

The 2nd thing is that anything coming out of government cannot be trusted. they can, and they will lie about anything, anything, if it suits their interests. So is the US government. 

 

The important question in the long run is that they have been running this one-child policy for long, and their demographics is or will be getting worse.  my only question is whether this is the peak or there is a little more to run.

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:35 | 898728 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Who is more credible? People on the ground, actually reporting what they're seeing, or our esteemed Federal Reserve Syndicate?:

 

Is This the Best the Fed Can Do in Its Defense?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:41 | 898758 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

For your consideration...

WW3 effectively started in 1971.The enemy is communism. Ford-Carter didn't advance the ball but all other administrations since then have. The war looks different because it is different.

The endgame is US inc. as sole superpower, the rest are Balkanized and fighting for scraps in a corporatist dominated world. People are simply commodities to be exploited. China is next to implode if they don't de-peg. If they de-peg, which they will likely be forced to do, you will be damn glad you own PM's.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:52 | 898792 alter ego
alter ego's picture

China won't de-peg their currency against the

dollar.

You will be witness a real major confrontation

in Asia before the Chinese accept the order

from Washington.

Watch Taiwan and North Korea.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:42 | 898760 skywalker
skywalker's picture

i come from china, the man is saying the right thing, but he may live in a more developed place, in some less developed place,inflation is not such a big problem

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:22 | 899116 thefedisscam
thefedisscam's picture

Exactly! and keep in mind in big cities in China, where inflation is bad, ALL those who have jobs got pay raise TOO! Unlike the U.S., FEW people can get pay raise now. ALL we got is Furlough days, furlough days, plus MORE furlough days!!

And yes, unless buying sale items using COUPON, the U.S. Food price inflation is pretty bad TOO!

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:48 | 898771 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

"So that's my report on inflation from on the ground in China."

Where does this childish jiberish come from? Sounds like a rendition of a 6th graders' "that's what I did last summer" back to school report... 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:56 | 898804 Minyan Vince
Minyan Vince's picture

what EXACTLY is childish or jiberish about that statement? I assume you have a phd in advanced linguistics, so how would you word-smith that statement?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 11:50 | 898782 vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

Ditto in India, I'm in Pune right now, an 'economic miracle city' where about 1/2 of the apartments built to spec sit unoccupied...and the daily conversations revolve around the cost of vegetables, oil and sugar...always going up.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:58 | 898798 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

...1/2 of the apartments built to spec sit unoccupied.

Built to specification?  Rare in India.

Built on speculation?  Bubblicious.

------------------------------------------------

Maybe the redskins can learn something from the chi.coms?

http://www.chinasmack.com/2010/pictures/container-homes-in-chengdu-18-sqm-only-6-rmb-rent-per-day.html

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:28 | 899138 thefedisscam
thefedisscam's picture

Inflation is BAD in ALL of emerging countries, NOT just in China!

They are the Victims of the U.S. monitizing of their debt!

The price of irresponsible Americans buying up ALL craps with Debt are being paid by ALL POOR people around the world, yes, including the American POOR too!

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:00 | 898818 Abraham Snake
Abraham Snake's picture

Last month I stumbled onto this website of translated Chinese internet trend stories. I found it interesting that a large number of stores were related to surviving hardship and poverty. One small plot rural farmer complained of exploding fertilizer costs vs. the fixed price he gets for his corn. Another rural 'grandfather' complained the government is halting elderly support payments in 2011. Honestly, much of the population is composed of aging uneducated peasantry living at sustenance.

http://www.chinasmack.com/

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:24 | 898946 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Thank you for that link. There's some really interesting stuff there that gives an inside look at Chinese public sentiment. Here are a few interesting ones:

http://www.chinasmack.com/2010/videos/ren-zhiqiang-outspoken-property-de...

http://www.chinasmack.com/2010/stories/guizhou-students-protest-inflatio...

http://www.chinasmack.com/2011/stories/if-the-united-states-attacked-chi...

 

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:11 | 898859 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Oh I don't know Minyan... Perhaps I've not had my dumplings this morning and I'm groggy and tired from too much football. Yet if I pondered it, I'd remove the "so that's what I did at band camp" comment. I'd also define the city and perhaps link a google population/migration map or something with demographics. I'd also not say "on the ground" as opposed to floating in space. Again, I'm grumpy....

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:57 | 899231 Thoreau
Thoreau's picture

Tell it to us in Mandarin, smartass... I mean, dumbass.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:12 | 898862 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I love the smell of speculation in the morning; especially 'no underlying demand, but the Central Bankstas are funneling funny money to inflate the bubble' speculation in the morning.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:26 | 898929 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

China is #1...the first to hyperinflation and economic ruination.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:00 | 899019 VFR
VFR's picture

http://finance.qq.com/zt2010/lcgctt/index.htm?pgv_ref=aio This article says that because of the rinimbi appreciation housewives are traveling to Hong Kong to buy cheaper goods

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 12:57 | 899024 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Unrest in China with 1.3 billion hungry people will not bode well.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:04 | 899054 Waffen
Waffen's picture

So if China is the first to Hyperinflate, what will that mean for the dollar and for PMs?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:14 | 899081 pitz
pitz's picture

PM's could soar while the dollar soars.  Would wipe out a lot of hedgies that are doing long gold, short dollar.  Could get very interesting....

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:58 | 899241 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

i doubt it.  USD would take off, but i think you'd find PMs get destroyed ... sorry to breeak that to you :-)

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 17:00 | 899984 pitz
pitz's picture

Well there you go, assuming its a binary relationship; gold up, dollar down.  Dollar up, gold down.  If that 'correlation' was broken by a market dislocation, then what?  As I said, a world of hurt for those trying to play the long gold, short dollar game, or vice versa.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:35 | 899161 ffart
ffart's picture

You think all the capital fleeing out of China would go back into USD? To the moon, baby!

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:35 | 899154 Dr. Z
Dr. Z's picture

I have lived in China for 4 years and I call B.S. on this post. Not saying that there

isn't a very big in inflation problem in China.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:54 | 899218 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

well if you are calling it BS but then you claim there IS a big inflation problem please tell us exactly WHAT you are saying!!!??

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 14:29 | 899388 heech
heech's picture

He's saying the original "reporter" doesn't have an economically-wise bone in his body, and wouldn't know inflation if his pants was filling up with it.

Yes, prices have clearly gone up.  No, this isn't because the Chinese have been "flooded" with money.  No, the fact that his dumplings went up 33% (in one day!!! oh my god!!!) doesn't really imply dumplings will cost a gazillion dollars in a year.  In reality, the prices of dumplings have probably only gone up 33% in the last 5 years.  (And what was he expecting, exactly?  The dumpling owner would slowly adjust up the price of dumplings?  Perhaps a penny a day?)

So says someone who spends 2 months a year in China, and has done so for the last 12 years.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 13:45 | 899191 deepsouthdoug
deepsouthdoug's picture

How do you say Jerry Ford's WIN (whip inflation now) in Chinese characters?

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 15:12 | 899557 sushi
sushi's picture

???????

In midwestern Chinese.

If you want to use the coastal dialect just say "Regan"

 

=====

Ooops.

It appears ZH does not support Han. Either left han or right han.

Give up dumplings. Go mo-mo.

Mon, 01/24/2011 - 17:21 | 900067 Al89
Al89's picture

No No. It is different this time. China will grow to the moon. China no.1. 500,000 new engineers a year etc etc. 

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 15:31 | 906890 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

lots o unemployed engineers 'round the globe.

not doing much good anywhere if they don't have the resources to 'engine'

potential != results

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