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Guess What Isn't Selling Off
As stock volume surges (we won't insult your intelligence to tell you what that means for stock prices), there is one asset that is going up. Considering the just released news of imminent land invasion in Libya which will be the next domino to fall in the MENA region, we would believe it is rather easy to guess which asset that is.
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Recalled something I read once before...
•"every $1 rise in oil decreases U.S. GDP by $100 billion per year and every 1 cent increase in gasoline decreases U.S. consumer disposable income by about $600 million per year." Not sure if this can be true given the move from $40 in early '09 to $120 in '11 would imply a net loss of $8T in GDP over these two years?...seems a little extreme? Can this be true??? Hatzius saying that the oil price could effect GDP at margin - that seems ridiculous. Anybody have a good # of the oil impacts effect in '08?
We consume a total in oil products of 19,000,000 Barrels per day, or 800,000,000 gallons per day. At about $3.50 per gallon, that is 2.8 Billion dollars per day. So for the year we pay $1 T per year
All right - If I do the math correctly - I calculate US is spending $840B for oil yr (barrels...not retail gasoline) @ $120/barrel. Now spending an additional $560Byr based on $120 from $40...1/3rd is domestic is $180B and 2/3 foreign is 360B. $360B / $15T GDP is a hit of almost 2.5% to GDP yearly from '09 to '11? Insignificant? Even if it's only half that due to prices rising / falling during that time, still 1.25% loss of GDP/yr.
This doesn't factor in actual price paid by consumer or loss of discretionary spending, the bleed over into everything else touched by oil (everything).
Simple. Just change the formula of GDP so that rises in oil prices are a multiplier. I am sure there's a committee working on this as we speak.
Whew! Way to go guys! Your commitment to society for the day is complete. You spent millions and millions of dollars of someone else's money to not let the Exchange Traded Fund known as SPY close below 133. Congratulations, you can really say you've done something with your life now. Just a terrific job. Outstanding.
Is that the Bernank's projected salary when he goes to Goldman Sachs after he is scapegoated?
buy SDS and DXD to frontrun the scumsatan's latest fumbling experiment...he's going to pull out the liquidity and the indices are at serious inflection points.. buy PM's with the profits
Did he also tell you the BLS NFP #'s ahead of time??? Did he let you in on any other secrets???
Despite living in a suburban hellhole, I've managed to arrange it so that I live about a ten minute drive from work and don't have to go on any major routes to suffer gridlock. Makes a huge difference.
I'll see your plan and raise you. I open one door between my domicile and retail space. No gridlock, no transportation costs and no wasting my time waiting to greet the nearly absent retail buyer with even fiat money to spend. Work, live and play without driving.
Used to be a sleeper berth and a curtain in the 18 wheeler in the morning. Open curtain, take a half step, turn and settle into your "Office" chair which was the driver's seat.
All the comforts of home and taking nap time through high commute rush hours makes for a very relaxing work day for 600-1000 miles.
hambone, his trolls are telling us all these days...
This just in: Tim Seymour texted me from home since Fast Money isn't on today. He said that according to his latest calculations, oil will NEVER affect the consumer. He sees a pickup in bicycle sales, suggesting the consumer is already making adjustments. In fact, with more consumers riding bicycles, he sees a healthier population with healthier minds. He thinks this will lead to a pickup in productivity, thus a higher GDP.
Ray LaHood approves.
In fact, he will insist on it.
Or else.
I remember the bike boom of the 70's. This same shit caused it. Soon it will be "cool" to ride a bike again.
.....yeah, the LA freeways loaded with bikes should be cool to watch. Biker pileup at the 405 interchange, BUI suspected, details at 11.
Having spent some time in SoCal, one thing that struck me was that it was prime biking territory. While you might have made your post in jest, I'd say it should be taken seriously. Southern California could very well become the biking captial of the world.
Relatively flat, benign weather, the expansive freeway systems are just begging to be gradually converted to cycling (or motorcycle) use.
Ya'll snicker & scoff.... let's see how you respond when gas is $20 a gallon.
This is great news. It's rolling along pretty much as expected.
Take a look at whale oil/bone depletion during the 19th century.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3960
Oil will trade similarly till we switch to alternatives. I won't try to tell you how to suck eggs, you're almost certainly better at it than I am.
Suppose there's no alternative?
Considering the just released news of imminent land invasion in Libya....
Where reported?? I can't find any recent news releases suggesting such a move.
sunny
At 2.75 cents more per gallon for each dollar more/bbl, let's see, on top of today's $4.75/gal, oil at $115 will give gas at $4.94, and oil at $120 will show gas at $5.08.
Maybe fill up both cars before tomorrow's Nigerian election riots...
used vegetable oil bitches
http://www.noendpress.com/caleb/biodiesel/index.php
If we overthrow our government, our new government doesn't have to honor the old debt!
...or at least try. Then call out the UN for help.
Has anybody ever considered the absurdity that in order to move a 200 pound human from A to B, it has become necessary to also move 3,000+ pounds of steel, aluminum, plastic and rubber?
Yet any minute now, I swear, deflation is going to kick in. When? Just keep calling my 900 number and I will keep you informed! LOL!
No need for QE to cause inflation. A war in the ME can do that
Buy USO and GLD and sleep well at night while Sarkozy does his Nobel Peace Prize Thing on Libya.
The GSR and CAFE standards; as the precious gains trade value against it's relative gold so goes up the efficiency of the horseless carriage.
Might as well start raising horses again. They are gonna be needed.