This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Guess WhAU's Back

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The commodity price inflation stream (oil heading to $85 after recent $82 resistance broken) is about to cross with the broader deflation stream. The Keynesian universe may well explode shortly thereafter.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:44 | 184411 Arco
Arco's picture

That's what happens when the Keynesian and Monetarist universes collide. Prices go up...

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:52 | 184431 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

As do faculty member salaries at major universities.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:58 | 184444 phaesed
phaesed's picture

LOL. Teacher salaries going up?

That's as hilarious as it is preposterous.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:33 | 184521 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

That is really funny.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:39 | 184530 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

I was referring to the so-called highly rated schools

http://chronicle.com/stats/aaup/index.php?action=result&search=harvard&state=&year=2009&category=&withRanks=1

Harvard average all professors

2000-2001 135k

2008-2009 192k

 

Princeton

2000-2001 125k

2008-2009 180k

http://www.bls.gov

J6P 2001: 34k

J6P Aug 2008: 42.2k

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:19 | 184603 Daedal
Daedal's picture

Yeah, well, they do have a very large endowment. Oh, wait, never mind (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/11/business/11harvard.html). On the other hand, perhaps these profs are very well endowed...

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:44 | 184414 10044
10044's picture

The PPT boyz must be busy with Mar futures

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 00:30 | 185238 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

American business in the 21st century? Naught but speculation, political corruption, diplomatic intrigue, war, gambling, vice, and fraud.

Signs of the times, portents all. And we thought that hated us for our freedoms. I don't feel so free anymore.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:47 | 184420 phaesed
phaesed's picture

Personally I believe the rise in gold is demonstrating the "real" dip in equities that the Fed is unwilling to allow happen. If you really want to go short stocks, go long gold, because there's no way in hell the Fed will allow reality to assert itself. Especially if they are gaming stocks to break-out with a "shockingly" better than expected Jobs number with quiet revisions to prior months and 2010 Census hirings.

Also, too many people understand what's going on and they don't want US citizens owning the actual currency of the country (not those cheap paper things.... load up on Quarters folks)

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:10 | 184482 Selah
Selah's picture

"Also, too many people understand what's going on and they don't want US citizens owning the actual currency of the country (not those cheap paper things.... load up on Quarters folks)"

I tell everyone who won't listen to my Gold and Silver sermons, or who can't afford to participate in the new reality, to save Nickels, not Quarters. A Nickel is worth 5.1 cents in $FRN and a Quarter is worth 4.7 cents. Trade your Quarters for Nickels and you get an immediate 400% ballpark profit... Realized when TSHTF.

http://www.coinflation.com/

 

 

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:37 | 184527 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Probably because the price of nickel has been on a tear of late.  In fact, all the base metals are shooting skywards.  This is inflation manifest.

But pennies (real ones, pre-1982) give you the best return currently, believe it or not.  While nickels are currently giving you a 2.5% premium over face value, pennies are providing over a 100% premium (2.2 cents of metal value).

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that pre-1982 copper pennies are getting scarce?  I have made it a habit to break FRN even if I have change in my pocket so I can grab the copper pennies, but lately all I've been getting are those zinc core turds.

P.S. Some 1982 pennies are still copper.  They changed like halfway through the year.  Zinc core pennies weigh 2.5g, while actual copper ones weigh 3.0-3.1g.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:48 | 184557 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

You might want to hold on to those zinc pennies too. Zinc has gone up from .60 to $1.14 per pound this past year. Let's see, 1 pound = 453.59 grams. hmmm...

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:19 | 184605 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Oh jeez, you gotta draw the line somewhere :)

Zinc is a crap metal: brittle, doesn't cast well, but abundant in nature and it has it's uses.

Copper, now that's a fine metal.  Good density, malleable, somewhat impervious to the elements (once it oxidizes on the surface it stablizes), nice to work with (machineable), makes useful alloys (brass with zinc, bronze with tin), and is one of only three elements that are truly "noble" metals:

"In physics the definition of a noble metal is even more strict. It is required that the d-bands of the electronic structure are filled. Taking this into account, only copper, silver and gold are noble metals, as all d-like band are filled and don't cross the Fermi level."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noble_metal

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 15:00 | 184657 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

never go off your meds again.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 15:32 | 184697 Selah
Selah's picture

Nickels, bitches...

http://www.survivalblog.com/nickels.html

 

At least over pennies. I prefer Silver and Gold, but do not spend coins unless I can break a Quarter into some more coins.

 

You will never get more than one Nickel from any one average transaction... four Pennies max. three Quarters...

The present Nickel is the rarest of our coins and production was halted last year. Pennies too...

 

 

 

 

Fri, 01/08/2010 - 03:02 | 186549 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The precious metals have 3 stages of a continuum. Gold is infinitely malleable. It has been spun into threads and turned into clothes. It will not work hardern no matter what. Silver is in the middle It wll work harden but not much. Copper hardens if you look at it wrong. The thing copper has going for it is that it's oxidation process doesn't interfere much with it's electrical conductivity which NO other metal has. So it's the king of outside power distribution except for very very long run high tension wires which have to be aluminum because copper is too heavy.

http://store.electrical-insulators-and-copper-ground-bars.com/index.html

 

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 22:20 | 185165 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

coinflation.com each day shows the metal value of US coins.  I started separating my nickels and copper pennies (only 10% or so of the pennies I get) from the junk pennies, dimes and quarters (though I can use quarters for tolls).

Re PMs, gold and silver Eagles is my way to go, platinum whenever I can find it (hard now).

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:48 | 184422 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If oil heads into the $100,then we are back to the seventies "stagflation". And gold,the ever accompanying nusance to the central bankers. It still refuses to go away even after the 70 mil or so of gld shorts back in DEC. And silly me,was waiting for it to go beneath $1000 to buy. And now it is even gaining more than the market percentage wise. Long gold and short spy?or vice versa. By the wa,anybody here can recommend a decent futures brokerage?etrades has a lot of negative feed back. Any help from the traders community is greatly appreciated...

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:51 | 184429 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

We are ready here for the PPT, see you at the Comex physical delivery window, and yes we want our physical, hold in our hands gold and not GLD, and we want it now!

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:52 | 184430 Anton LaVey
Anton LaVey's picture

Allow me to be the first to say it, before Chumbawamba shows up:

GOLD, BITCHES!

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:18 | 184494 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I'm almost on the verge of retiring that phrase from my written repertoire since it's sufficiently caught on now that it gets uttered at the appropriate times ;)

However, it must be written as "GOLD BITCHES!!!" (no comma, 3 exclamation points, please) to conjure it's appropriate magic.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:40 | 184533 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Perhaps we next attempt to coin this phrase:

SILVER MOTHER FUCKERS!

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:50 | 184561 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

I am long Ag and looking to swap it for AU. Sorry but silver price moves with industrial metals prices and will drop hard on the next economic leg down.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:22 | 184611 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Unless it's remonetized, whether by government fiat or public trend (I'm leaning towards the latter, but both are reasonable expectations).

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:21 | 184608 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I like it!

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 15:36 | 184705 Selah
Selah's picture

SILVER AND GOLD MOTHER FUCKING BITCHES!!!

A compromise for the "end times"?

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 16:15 | 184757 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Remember Burl Ives singing it, as a snowman when we were kids?

Silver and Gold,

That's what I'm told,

The colors for collapses,

are Silver and Gold.

Bitchez.

 

Ah yes, I remember it fondly. Wise assed old snowman.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 00:12 | 185231 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Silly me, and here I thought it was time for Nana Mouskouri!

Undec

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 16:13 | 184763 Blindweb
Blindweb's picture

Platinum and Palladium pussy-ass conservatives

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 22:27 | 185170 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I have and want more of all of 'em:

Au

Ag

Pt

Pd

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:07 | 184592 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Gold, beetches.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:52 | 184432 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

why y do not scream regarding copper , e ?

leave gold alone, focus on copper

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:19 | 184496 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Copper is trying to tell you something.  It's saying that there's inflation in the money supply.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:23 | 184503 Selah
Selah's picture

Physical copper is too bulky.

It has its place and time, but not yet... Paper money could still be made from paper copper, but I wouldn't risk the switch getting thrown on any "metals trade".

I've got some copper, Silver, Gold, Brass and Lead, and Lead delivery systems.

I can see them and grab them in my paws. That's because I own them. If you can't hold your copper in your paws, you do not own copper.

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:40 | 184529 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Copper and Lead delivery systems. Worth their weight in Gold.

In my view you really can't go wrong with either one - Gold is just so much more cute and easy to carry around.

Copper is a golden goose in hard times:

http://homedistiller.org/image/phanmo1.jpg

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:29 | 184623 Selah
Selah's picture

I hadn't thought about that "copper" delivery system... At least in the form of "trade".

As of next payday, I am going to be heavily long on copper line.

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 16:06 | 184746 janchup
janchup's picture

High velocity lead delivery systems, farmland, water, fertilizer, seed, solar power, livestock, few neighbors, pre-prepared garden beds and lots of luck. And gold and silver.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 19:51 | 185029 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

+pre-prepared garden beds; and minds.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:32 | 184517 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

you harm gold if you scream like that/unjustifiably, other parrots take your line.

focus on things that really harm and not on effects that do not harm because they will be manipulated like all things

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 12:59 | 184448 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

More support for the gold market.

Rep. Barney Frank: Lenders Fannie and Freddie now a 'public policy instrument'.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/74333-barney-frank-fann...

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:03 | 184460 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Gold recently retraced from $1200 to $1090, and no ZH post on the topic. Now it goes up 0.9%, primarily from ECB comments, and this is newsworthy?

It should have gone up to $1500. Heck, we've had 100 year old institutions go bust in 2008, yet Gold didn't achieve the $2500 price target many postulated.

Why? Ponder it folks. And at the same time extend the same cynicism to gold as you do to bank balance sheets and MBS valuations. Gold is manipulated, too.

Prove me wrong.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:23 | 184504 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

What are we talking about?  Gold, the 79th element on the periodic table with checmical symbol Au, or GLD, the Exchange Traded Fund that isn't worth the trading platform in which it resides?

If you're talking Au, you're wrong.  Time will prove you thusly.  Be patient.

If you're talking GLD, you're not necessarily wrong, as that is a paper trade that paper traders trade.

What else are people going to run to?  Stocks with outrageous P/E ratios?  Hyper-issued Treasury bonds?  Over-inflated real estate?  Inflated commodities?

Find an alternative to gold that everyone will flock to when every paper instrument in existence goes up in smoke and you will have proven your unwrongness.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:53 | 184567 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"What else are people going to run to? Stocks with outrageous P/E ratios? Hyper-issued Treasury bonds? Over-inflated real estate? Inflated commodities?"

Chumba says we've already had inflation, just as I've suspected.
Gold is just another metal. Manipulated, overbought, and overindulged. Hoard it if you must. But who's the next buyer once it goes straight up?

The line of suckers is getting thin. We've all seen what the suckers who bought inflated RE are trying to unload their properties at. Deflation is here. Gold is just another one of the many bubbles being formed - a direct result of the intense market emotion from a manipulated economy. Hedge???? or is Gold a good buy and hold???

I think fiat is dead. Agreed. But I also think that gold is being chased like Robo's failed curtain call whores.

So what to do? It will come down to those that can produce something.... provide a legitimate need for people, not just being a broker or used housing pimp. The future will be based on those that can contribute, which is why gold is nothing to be crazy about.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 16:41 | 184798 Blindweb
Blindweb's picture

Have you ever taken a few minutes to try to understand the nature of money? 

Fiat's going to end you say.  And what, we're all going to magically produce and exchange goods without any medium of exchange , wealth storage unit, or unit of account?  Your post is so ignorant and internally-contradictive I can't believe I've waste my time responding.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 16:41 | 184799 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Thanks for completely misstating my position.

We have not "already had" inflation.  We are HAVING inflation.  And we will continue to HAVE inflation.  Our entire system of debt-backed currency is inflationary by design.  But the inflation we are seeing of late is well above and beyond our normal inflationary expectations.  It is no ordinary inflation.

Like many others, your confusion stems from your failure to understand the role of gold and silver throughout history.

It will come down to those that can produce something.... provide a legitimate need for people, not just being a broker or used housing pimp.

Sure, but production requires capital.  Gold and silver (among other forms of money or wealth) are stored capital.

I am Chumbawamba.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 00:27 | 185235 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yeah Rothschilds, Lazards, GS squids, and Israel Moses Saef are real producers. Shoe cobblers, engineers, timbermen?

No, they held the gold first, longest, and most effectively. They saw and held their advantage by intrigue, vice, and corruption...they appealed to the weakest parts of human nature in order to extract its strengths.

Mining of the human soul, with no regard for the source or the means.

Highly productive people are merely cogs in their machine if not outright slaves to a system of their invention.

USURY! ARBITRAGE! THEFT! The highest return on any investment ever. Which is why war is also a sweet enterprise for this crowd.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:22 | 184612 Daedal
Daedal's picture

GDX, holmes.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 16:16 | 184767 Blindweb
Blindweb's picture

Reminds me to look into GDXJ

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 16:07 | 184748 janchup
janchup's picture

You are correct. Temporarily.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:05 | 184468 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Let's not forget about the WhAU's stepsister, WhAG.

Silver is now making a nice run and seems to be breaking from equities.

$20 may be here soon.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:27 | 184513 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Silver does seem to be leading this time, doesn't it?

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:43 | 184544 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I took advantage of the dips and got myself another batch of silver and a little Au.

Anything under $20/ozt for silver is still a good buy at this juncture (my opinion).

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 17:48 | 184907 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I grabbed some, too, a few days ago.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:39 | 184531 Selah
Selah's picture

Sooner than I would like...

If I was rich, I would have bought a lot more back at $12/oz... and $15... and $17.33 (last one).

I fully expect a crushing blow to PM values before TSHF, unless we have already seen that. Then I'm really scared, and if you aren't scared now, you are wrong...

 

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:43 | 184542 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

FOFOA sees huge volatility with the paper price of gold swinging as low as $xxx (pick a number) before the final destruction of the paper gold market. Only then will physical gold price be free to find its 'natural' level (higher).

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 22:32 | 185174 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I saw that too.  FOFOA has an interesting take on gold, though he is not a fan of other PMs.

fofoa.blogspot.com

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:27 | 184619 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

If this happens, it won't be an occasion to be scared but rather another good buy opportunity (just like the Fall of 08).

This is a game with very obscure and uncertain rules of play.  You must stay on your toes.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:11 | 184477 phaesed
phaesed's picture

Yay! Economic Recovery! Well except for those folks at Lockheed Martin who got fired today. All these news items on the same day.

 

Lockheed Martin Announces New Mission Systems & Sensors Business

- New business, let's fire some people to help reduce expenses!

 

Lockheed Martin Awarded $118 Million Contract to Provide Sniper(R) Advanced Targeting Pods and LANTIRN ER Navigation Pods to Turkish Air Force

- New contract! Let's fire some people and give our bonuses an extra bump up as a pat on the back.

 

Middle management at its finest... don't know how to make shit, but sure know how to pay scientists less and increase that bottom line. The American Dream at work. Fuck learning and actual education to advance our country, I'm gonna get an MBA and fire some people!

 

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:25 | 184508 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Not only that, but this is all military production: i.e. destruction of wealth.

Nice future you have there, America.  Our inventiveness is second to none.  Especially when it comes to killing people and wasting money.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:45 | 184550 Screwball
Screwball's picture

+1e6

I've worked for several large corporations and the idiot/non-idiot ratio of mid-management type isn't even close.  No friken wonder this country and their businesses are in the shape they are in.  Many of these so called smart people couldn't pour piss out of a boot if the directions were on the bottom.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:55 | 184571 docj
docj's picture

Many of these so called smart people couldn't pour piss out of a boot if the directions were on the bottom.

That is some weapons-grade funny, right there.  And oh so true.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:04 | 184586 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Yeah, that's enriched!

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:42 | 184634 fuu
fuu's picture

See Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2mail/mail408.html#Iron

 

"in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people: those who work to further the actual goals of the organization, and those who work for the organization itself. Examples in education would be teachers who work and sacrifice to teach children, vs. union representative who work to protect any teacher including the most incompetent. The Iron Law states that in all cases, the second type of person will always gain control of the organization, and will always write the rules under which the organization functions."

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:58 | 184577 Selah
Selah's picture

Chumbawamba,

I have a lot of respect for your understanding of the financial markets, but you seem to have a limited understanding our military industrial complex, vis-à-vis destruction of wealth. Money doesn't just get flushed down a toilet only to have bombs magically produced from sewer drains. We don't make Fighter Jets out of Fiat-Dollar paper-mache.

I can argue both sides of the morality of war, or even the morality of the present, "endless war" that our Mussolinian version of Fascism reqires, but this is not a destruction of wealth, it is our last grasp at wealth.

It will end badly...

Food, Bitches!!!

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:36 | 184630 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

I think he is refering to the fact that killing people is a destruction of capital in two different forms.

A) The resources used to make the device used to kill people

B) The capital destroyed as both the people or labor destroyed and the buildings etc destroyed in the process.

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:45 | 184638 Selah
Selah's picture

Was I addressing you?

Chumbawamba doesn't need someone to speak on his behalf.

You are quite arrogant to think that you need to... Plus, you are wrong.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:58 | 184654 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Right...

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 15:18 | 184678 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

This is a public forum, not a private one.  Mr./Ms. Chip on his/her shoulder.

Next up I'm sure you'll tell us about the fantastic alternative investment opportunity in suicide bombers.  Hmm, maybe we can get a faith-based hedge fund going...

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 15:49 | 184721 Selah
Selah's picture

Yes, you are right about the "public forum" part and I agree that I was out of line.

However, I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about with the "suicide bombers" and "faith-based hedge fund".  Seriously, how did you make that up from what I wrote?

Tangents are easy to follow... I'm sure that you would agree that trash bags and tampons are a waste of capital, since they are both going to a landfill.

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 16:45 | 184806 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Don't worry, Selah, I know what you were saying.

People need to lighten up.  Come on, man, it's 2010: the future is here!

I am Chumbawamba.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 02:48 | 185270 bluebare
bluebare's picture

+1

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:16 | 184491 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Is the blind effort by the FED in manipulating the market,will be the "straw that breaks the camel back?. During the most part of last year,the reflation,deflation trade micro management,succeeded to a large extent. It managed to inflate equities,and at the same time keep the 10s below the critical 3.5% (except for a brief period of the bond vigilante). And gold was supressed for most of the year under the $1000 mark. But late DEC saw a surge in the 10s yield,oil hitting the $80 range,and gold surpassing the $1000 mark. Does that a FED losing control over the market?Or is it just a blip. For I believe with oil above $80,and yield climbing back above %3.8 (couldn't even stay tow days bellow 3.8)are both impedement to a recovery. So are traders calling the inflation bluff?. And where will be the infliction point?.Oil at $100 and above?. Notice that oil is higher now even with the dollar higher than its lows in the beginning of DEC.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:20 | 184499 john_connor
john_connor's picture

One must own some physical PM's.  No questions asked.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:26 | 184511 2500saturdays
2500saturdays's picture

For Anon.

There are no markets anymore just manipulations.

Any yes gold price is managed too BUT the price is suppressed and has been for many years.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:29 | 184516 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

So do the Elliott Waves predict gold will fall back to $800 before it goes up to $1650 and beyond or after?

Maybe you Prechterites are just reading the data wrongly?

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:40 | 184535 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

E wavers are the new New Wavers. Whip them good, with apologizes to Devo.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 18:23 | 184947 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

Prechterian E-Wavers do, such as Daneric... They tend to be staunch deflationistas, ala Prechter.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Sz9wVEUcGuI/AAAAAAAADT0/igVjAYilWs...

 

Other TA Analysts that happen to use E-Wave methodology (McHugh as a specific example) have a bullish count.  Sorry no links available to McHugh's wave count, but suffice it to say, where Daneric has Black wave [3] topping, McH has that as W5 and the push from 1033 down to 681 the A-B-C correction Daneric foresees to come.

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:49 | 184559 Steak
Steak's picture

Silly humans...food and energy are not a part of inflation.  And gold is a dinosaur anyways.  Seriously, the output gap said we can print money consequence free.  And we can't tell what a bubble looks like either.

PS: give us the unlimited ability to pump cash into whomever we so choose, the world will end if you don't

Love,

Bennie S

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:51 | 184564 tjfxh
tjfxh's picture

Uh, let's get our terminology correct here. "Inflation" is not price rise in any absolute sense. "Inflation" means across the board prices increase due to nominal AD in excess of real output capacity (glut of money/shortage of goods for purchase). With the economy underperforming and unemployment in the double digits, using "inflation" to refer to isolated price increases (oil rising, housing falling) is incorrect. Oil is rising from increased demand due to emerging nations coming on line. China just surpassed the US in autos, for example. This does not indicate broad inflation in the US.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:59 | 184580 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

+100

But don't tell Gordo or Chumpa. The closet gold dwellers read it in a Superman comic that gold is shiny and nice.
Someone posted here once that gold "felt so good between my legs". Nice crowd.

Give it a rest, losers. Gold is a friggin mineral. Nothing more, nothing less. Might as well use dirt as your savior.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 01:25 | 185251 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If gold was as common as dirt it would be...well...dirt.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:40 | 184633 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

If we lived in a free market inflation would be across the board, but because wealth is concentrated so drastically it is very plausible to see both inflation and deflation occur at the same time as fewer hands holding larger hoards of wealth creates greater price volatility.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 17:27 | 184872 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You missed the point - inflation is not a change in price levels. It's a change in the levels of money and debt chasing any particular supply level of goods & services.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 03:58 | 185277 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

I think we are both just arguing semantics here, so I will leave it at that.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 13:57 | 184573 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Title of article should've been, "WazzAup!?"

Hehe.  I amuse myself.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 21:00 | 185097 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Tyler, as a Chem major (graduated cumveryloudly)
it is Au, not AU, as the Chumbawamba has correctly
typed. Same for Ag

Long CH4 chains
Long Au
Long Ag
Long BITCHES!!!

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 00:16 | 185232 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If you're long CH4 chains, you'll be short BITCHES!

Fact of life. That's why I never order brussel sprouts on the first date.

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 10:31 | 185366 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Asparagus a bad idea too
Hey Tyler, how about some simple derivative
alternatives for Captcha?
Say d/dx of x^2 or e^x ???

These aritnmetic questions are way too hard!

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:07 | 184591 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Here's my problem with the hyperinflation outcome. Fixed rate loans are not adjusted for inflation so if we go into hyperinflation, the banks will not be able to come in and repo these homes like they could if deflation occurs. I feel like this repo is the one positive the banks have going for them, and because of this the hyperinflation scenario does not seem likely to me.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 22:22 | 185166 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

that is right -

the banks WANT (controlled) deflation - so they can foreclose upon and repossess assets.

my guess is that it will get away from them a bit - but not too much. Asset prices are headed back to pre-1980 levels. at that point, the bankers - who were short the whole way down - are unbelievably wealthy, and ordinary people will be BEGGING for the FED to rescue them with inflation.

maybe its cruel, diabolical ... illegal even. but that's what's going to happen. hyperinflation would put the FED out of business. Not going to happen -

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 14:22 | 184610 Selah
Selah's picture

Why is money valuable? Why are people willing to work so hard for it, lie for it, cheat for it, go to prison for it, fight for it, kill for it, give up their children for it . . . even marry Donald Trump for it?

I mean, look at the dollar bill. What is it, really?  It’s a piece of paper!

What’s more, it’s a piece of paper that appears to have been designed by a disturbed individual. On one side, you have a portrait of George Washington, who, granted, was the Father of Our Country and a great leader and everything, but who looks, in this particular picture . . . like a man having his prostate examined by Roto-Rooter.

And then on the other side of the dollar you have... What is that all about? Why is there a picture of a pyramid, instead of a structure traditionally associated with the fundamental values of the United States of America, such as a Wal-Mart?

And why is the pyramid being hovered over by an eyeball the size of a UPS truck?

Whatever the explanation, the design of the dollar would not seem to inspire confidence in its value. And yet if you drop a few dollars from an overpass onto a busy freeway at rush hour, people will run into traffic and literally risk their lives in an effort to grab them. Try it!

What does this tell us? It tells us that people are stupid. But it also tells us that money is more than just pieces of paper. But what makes it valuable? To answer that question, we need to consider:

The History of Money

In prehistoric times, there was no such thing as money. When people needed to buy something, they had to charge it. And then when the bills came, nobody could understand them, because there was also no such thing as reading. This led to a lot of misunderstandings and hitting with rocks.

The first form of money that we are aware of by looking it up on the Internet was animals. From the start there were problems with this type of money, particularly the smaller denominations, such as squirrels, which were always biting the payee and scampering away.

By 9000 b.c., the most commonly accepted form of animal money was cattle. When you bought something, you would give the other person a cow, and the other person would give your change in calves. This was better than squirrels, but still not an efficient system. The cash registers were disgusting.

By 3000 b.c., the Mesopotamians had invented two concepts that revolutionized economic activity: (1) writing and (2) banking. This meant that, for the first time, it was possible for a Mesopotamian to walk into a bank and hand the teller a stone tablet stating:

GIVE ME ALL YOUR COWS AND NOBODY GETS HURT

These robbers were captured quickly, because they had to make their getaways at very slow speeds. Still, it was clear that a better medium of exchange was needed.

The ancient Chinese tried to solve the problem by using seashells as money. The advantage of this system was that seashells were small, durable, clean, and easy to carry. The drawback was that they were, in a word, seashells. This meant that anybody with access to the sea could get them. By the time the ancient Chinese had figured this out, much of their country was the legal property of gulls.

And so the quest continued for a better form of money. Various cultures experimented with a number of commodities, including tea, grains, leather, tobacco, and Pokémon cards. Then, finally, humanity hit upon a medium of exchange that had no disadvantages—a medium that was durable, portable, beautiful, and universally recognized to have lasting value. That medium, of course, was beer.

No, seriously, it was precious metals, especially gold and silver, which—in addition to being rare and beautiful—could be easily shaped into little disks that fit into vending machines.

Before long, many cultures were using some form of gold for money. It came in a wide variety of shapes and designs, as we see in these photographs of ancient coins unearthed by archeologists:

The problem was that gold is too heavy to be constantly lugged around. So, to make it easier for everybody, governments began to issue pieces of paper to represent gold. The deal was, whenever you wanted, you could redeem the paper for gold. The government was just holding your gold for you. But it was YOUR gold! You could get it anytime! That was the sacred promise that the government made to the people. That’s why the people trusted paper money. And that’s why, to this very day, if you—an ordinary citizen—go to Fort Knox and ask to exchange your U.S. dollars for gold, you will be used as a human chew toy by large federal dogs.

Because the government changed the deal. We don’t have the gold standard anymore. Nobody does. Over the years, all the governments in the world, having discovered that gold is, like, rare, decided that it would be more convenient to back their money with something that is easier to come by, namely: nothing. So even though the U.S. government still allegedly holds tons of gold in “reserve,” you can no longer exchange your dollars for it. You can’t even see it, because visitors are not allowed. For all you know, Fort Knox is filled with Cheez Whiz.

Which brings us back to the original question: If our money really is just pieces of paper, backed by nothing, why is it valuable?

The answer is: Because we all believe it’s valuable.

Really, that’s pretty much it.

Remember the part in Peter Pan where we clap to prove that we believe in fairies, and we save Tinker Bell? That’s our monetary system! It’s the Tinker Bell System! We see everybody else running around after these pieces of paper, and we figure, Hey, these pieces of paper must be valuable. That’s why if you exchanged your house for, say, a pile of acorns, everybody would think you’re insane; whereas if you exchange your house for a pile of dollars, everybody thinks you’re rational, because you get . . . pieces of paper! The special kind, with the big hovering eyeball!

And you laughed at the ancient Chinese, with the seashells.

So what does all this mean? Does it mean that our monetary system is a giant house of cards that would collapse like, well, a giant house of cards if the public stopped believing in the pieces of paper? Could all of our “wealth”—our savings, our investments, our pension plans, etc.—suddenly become worthless, meaning that the only truly “wealthy” people would be the survivalist wing nuts who trade all their money for guns and beef jerky?

Yes. But that probably won’t happen. Because, fortunately, the public prefers not to think about economics. Most people are unable to understand their own telephone bills, let alone the U.S. monetary system. And as long as we don’t question the big eyeball, Tinker Bell is safe.

 

From Dave Barry, buy his book!

I think like this, but can't seem to write like he does...

 

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 15:30 | 184695 drwells
drwells's picture

Hilarious. Dave Barry is within spitting distance of becoming an Austrian. I should mail him one of Rothbard's books and push him over the edge.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 18:24 | 184931 loki
loki's picture

Isn't the problem that a loaf of bread used to be one piece of paper and a loaf of bread is now four pieces of paper?

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 15:04 | 184661 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Where is that mouthy "know it all" trader today?

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 15:04 | 184662 Shameful
Shameful's picture

No! Go down damn you!  I'm getting some money from Uncle Sugar soon and want to buy!  Someone get Tiny Tim on the phone and tell him to unload a few more tungsten...errr...gold bars into the market!  Hell Gordon Brown still has some gold to sell off right?!?!  Call him to!

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 16:49 | 184814 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

No need to wet yourself.  Just wait for the next dip, dude.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 17:12 | 184854 Shameful
Shameful's picture

lol no worries it was to express my displeasure of it going up right around when I get my "free" money.  I know it's still a good buy, though would you hold off to see if we are going to have an equity unwind and that should cause a sell-off in gold as people take profits to pay for losers?

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 19:15 | 185002 Apocalypse Now
Apocalypse Now's picture

The Exchange increased margin requirements on gold, I believe that took some wind out of the sails.

They will rally the market along with gold, because they can't afford to let it lag silver or gold any more (when they can't control the price).  I believe they also want people to go leveraged on the exchanges and then lower markets to initiate margin calls which would then need to be covered by selling precious metals (the asset that will hold its value) for portfolios that include both equities and pm.

The end game of the greedy is to deprive the people of their land, home, resources, and precious metals.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 19:46 | 185022 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Glad to see you posting AN. Hope you are well. Missed you.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 21:46 | 185135 Apocalypse Now
Apocalypse Now's picture

Thanks MsCreant - Hope you had happy holidays, with silver and gold up you know we are all well!

In this new year I wish you the right to your own property, your ability to live life free of manipulation and propaganda, your right to privacy despite technological snooping, sunny days, and a very prosperous "precious" new year.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 20:20 | 185060 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I had the weirdest thing happen the other day. I was selling a POS Columbia gold explorer that I made a few hundred bucks on playing the MACD and I sold 3K shares.

Not a minute later the frigging thing dropped 21% on reasonably big volume. That has confirmed for me that

1. I'm a friggin genius
2. The HFT gang are watching my trade and the algo's are driving the sell.
3. The HFT gang is watching my Ip address.
4. The HFT gang is watching me through my webcam.

Can I get a tally of your opinions on the right answer?

Sec I'm gonna light up first cause I'm freaked man

That quiz screwed me up too ZH

Thu, 01/07/2010 - 01:35 | 185254 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

The commodity price inflation stream (oil heading to $85 after recent $82 resistance broken) is about to cross with the broader deflation stream. The Keynesian universe may well explode shortly thereafter.

Don't cross the streams!!!!!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!