Guest Post: “This Time It’s Different”– The Four Most Expensive Words In The English Language

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Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:46 | 1409950 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

just the tip

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:47 | 1409965 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Nothing like a little Chinese-Style Keynesianism to save the day. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:50 | 1409977 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Any problem you got, throw money at it. That doesnt solve it? Throw more money at it.  All hail Keynes.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:48 | 1409958 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'The Australian press is constantly running economic puff pieces, declaring endless rosy times for the country due to its commodity exports to China. This sort of thing borders on propaganda.'

Borders on propaganda. What is it then, Hopium?

Keep it dumb, that's the name of the game...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:12 | 1410552 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Idiot Abroad went to China and I didn't see anything there that resembled modern

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:49 | 1409959 silver surfer
silver surfer's picture

In the long term no country get rich by exporting commodities and importing manufactured goods!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:49 | 1409974 falak pema
falak pema's picture

you be true son of confucious.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:55 | 1409995 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Confucious say tight pants like cheap hotel - no ballroom.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:56 | 1410002 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

+1

It's been true for Africa for almost a century.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 18:03 | 1410147 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

That's not exactly fair - the people with guns run many places in Africa.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:00 | 1410536 moonstears
moonstears's picture

And altruistic China's in Africa now, too.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 08:10 | 1411155 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

And the people behind the really big guns run the USA, fortunately they are outnumbered by those with small arms, and their big guns haven't proven particularly effective against large numbers with small arms.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:18 | 1410282 Rynak
Rynak's picture

But the GDP looks so good!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:21 | 1410295 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

tell that to the Arab oil exporters. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:59 | 1410527 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Arabs trade gold gold for black gold according to some...just sayin'.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:30 | 1413639 wkwillis
wkwillis's picture

America, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, all grew very large and prosperous selling commodities and importing manufactured goods.

But America at least has no net exports these days, not even foods. Our food exports pay for the diesel, insecticides, fungicides, nitrate fertilisers, etc, necessary to grow those foods.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:52 | 1409969 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK China whatever....whats going on with the big Greek vote sotry did they cancel it? No news about it anywhere.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:54 | 1409979 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Comes out tomorrow, friend. Trust me when I tell you: it's irrelevant.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:53 | 1409989 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well everythings irrelevant. Fuck it.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:39 | 1410094 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

Chill sheepy :)  It takes a minimum of 3 govts to be thrown out before the politics can change enough to allow them to deal with the debt fraud.  I think Iceland had to throw out 3 govts? Argentena was... several I think. Equador was 3?  They are going to have to pitch out all the parties that made money from this. Right now that means the main party and the large opposition party. If your worrying about shorts I am with you, Even with this pig passed I don't see the market flying :)

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:53 | 1409976 Harry Paratestes
Harry Paratestes's picture

The Omen in China will be in the Gold

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:55 | 1409984 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

Australia has sold its self to China, and the problem is now though that non-mining related businesses in australia are struggling under the weight of a currnecy that is the wrong price.  Australia does not operate well under a high rate of exchange.  Now if Australia had an unbalanced economy before this boom then I would say fine, let the ccy adjustment realign things.  However, such is the impact of the mining boom that it is distorting investment away from almost every other area.  This will end the same way, as all mining booms do.  You are right about the aus newspaper pimping the good times forever.  Sadly, life doesn't work that way.  And even before the crash you will see a material decline (perhaps thats happening now) as the impact of the infamous second derivative kicks in.  China are unlikely, even for a small period of time, increase their demand at a higher and higher rates (of change).  Eventually things come down, and then they go pop.

Sad to see Australia get destroyed by this.  At a minimum the govt could stop spunking all the boom proceeds and start running a surplus.  The ccy is trading 1.05 today, but after this bursts it'll be 70c again.  Just make sure you're not doing a chuck prince, cause that music is about to stop!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:07 | 1410018 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

You forgot to mention Australia's huge housing bubble that is now about to collapse. Either in orderly fashion or something like... Vegas. Doesn't matter, it pops, banks need rescue, sadness to commence...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:42 | 1410431 Onohymagin
Onohymagin's picture

So true, see the US v Oz comparison in the following article.

http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/aussie-investors-flock-to-us-housing...

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 08:00 | 1411142 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

Thats hilarious.  I can tell you (if you don't already know) that both Brunswick and Newtown are shite places to live.  I have lived in both melbourne and sydney and they (brunswick and newtown) are both awful places.  That people pay $700k for a 2 bedroom piece of 50s shit in brunswick is just stupid.  Its a fucking dump, and yes, it's reminiscent of the US a few years back.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 07:59 | 1411132 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

i totally agree.  Not sure why i am getting junked for my comment.  What i wrote is all true....

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:53 | 1409988 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

50/50 Simon sings a different tune after his tour of the mainland. 

 

I like aussies as a rule, especially when they lose at cricket, but they are also one of nature's simpletons when it comes to believing in bullshit, unicorns, and rainbows. I wouldn't take stock in anything they say about the future, but simpletons have a way of expressing views that are plainly obvious and they are obviously correct at this moment in time. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:03 | 1410009 william shatner
william shatner's picture

Aren't those like 5 words?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:27 | 1410483 JeffB
JeffB's picture

Isn't that Spock's line?

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 03:45 | 1410897 SPADOC4
SPADOC4's picture

I'd call it three words and one contraction

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:00 | 1410010 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

This reminds me of the silver play two months ago.  Our former CFO finally started asking me about buying silver.  At that point I literally said, "oh, shit, the run is over".  It was down 20 percent before I could even blink an eye. 

We have friends that bought a condo in Florida for $370,000 in 2006.  They timed the top to the near second.  At the time they were comfortable with it because it was bringing in $1,100 per month rent. 

Does anybody else notice how everybody around you is totally confounded if you say words like, "the 120 rule"?  But at the same time they are lining up to pour into investments. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:10 | 1410040 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

So the singlehanded and unilateral decision by CME group to hike margins has nothing to do with it ?

Interesting how quickly you forget.

I don't.

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:24 | 1410061 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

You've never met our former CFO.  Have you?  The CME can't pop a bubble nearly as well as he can.  He just thinks of something and it crashes.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:43 | 1410109 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

I'd buy his newsletter! Is he consistent?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:28 | 1410074 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Comparing the silver market to FL condo's?

1 person in a 100 or maybe even 1 in a 1000 owns any physical silver. 

The mania stage hasn't even started yet. Going to take three digits to get that going.  

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:54 | 1410130 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Any comparison of silver to Florida condos is unintentional.

I don't believe silver is in a bubble.  Government, on the other hand......

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:53 | 1410123 oddjob
oddjob's picture

So you have latent hostility towards Silver and are taking satisfaction in other peoples real estate losses, just end your frustrating life.

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:56 | 1410138 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Oddjob, was that towards me?  I still like AG a lot.  I don't think that was a bubble popping.  It was a correction brought about by the CME, god, whatever, at the exact moment that my former CFO thought about buying. 

I'm not taking pleasure in their losses.  I am completely frustrated.  They are one of the many that we know that got hurt that would not listen. 

My life's not really that frustrating.  Thank you very much. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 18:23 | 1410177 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Just the past tense reference to the 'Silver play' seemed somewhat disingenuous. My apologies.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:09 | 1410270 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Your virtual hug is accepted. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 19:22 | 1410287 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Please get a room guys.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:07 | 1410028 kito
kito's picture

jim rogers laughs at your ignorance soveriegn man

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:54 | 1410788 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Wow, what a powerful argument!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:07 | 1410029 Manzilla
Manzilla's picture

And the second most expense 4 words in language???? There is a bubble. There's no doubt prices will eventually crash but "predicting" it too early is extremely costly in it's own right.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:23 | 1410067 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I disagree.  My experience shows that it is better to entirely miss a bubble than it is to be any part of the bust.   Sitting out the tech bubble, Beany Baby bubble, real estate bubble didn't hurt anybody.  The believers get crushed.  Typically the non-believers just keep moving along like the tortoises they are. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:51 | 1410132 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

early isn't wrong, unless you're margined to your eyeballs, its just early - you never get the top or bottom anyway.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 20:41 | 1410421 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Yes, as someone once said, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

 

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:11 | 1410044 gerryscat
gerryscat's picture

The people of China and India CAN NOT reach the western-world's level of consumption, there simply is NOT enough resources for that to happen. They (and we) need to seriously reconsider what we call "quality of life". It needs to be redefined and the fucking economists can all go to hell.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:19 | 1410751 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Not sure why you were junked

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