Guest Post: The “Recovery” In Consumer Loans Isn’t Real

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Bud Conrad of Casey Research

The amount of loans being provided by our banking system is a good
reflector of the strength of our economy. Below is a big-picture view
that shows the total loans in the U.S. as the Fed reports in its H.8
each week. We can see that loans outstanding declined at a rapid rate
at the beginning of the current great recession, but there seems to be a
recovery in the little jump at the end of the chart, as highlighted by
the two small black arrows. A little closer look shows that the
Consumer Loans segment is the source of the optimism that we see in the
total.

The Consumer Loans figure shows an impossible jump of $360 billion in a
one-time change in April 2010, in the dashed blue line. Just
graphically you can see that the jump is not consistent with history.
The correct conclusion is that consumers didn’t go on a $360 billion
borrowing binge in one month. The change was from how the Fed reported
the data. In other words, the “green shoot” of apparent loan growth in
the first chart is bogus. It came from a fluke in the data that
couldn’t have happened, and so it didn’t happen. We don’t have evidence
of recovery in loans but rather continuing their decline since the
beginning of this recession in 2008.

To get a consistent view, I adjusted the data from April forward to
remove the jump to produce the gradually continuing decline as shown in
the solid red line. Without the one-time change in the data from the
Fed, the loans at banks have continued to decline.

When combined into the big picture, the result is that the private
sector is still deleveraging its outstanding balance of loans.

The rate of decline is still at the biggest level since World War II:

My interpretation is that the private economy is still in a downturn,
because the Federal Reserve numbers when adjusted, as I provide here,
are still showing we are in the worst decline on record. Not shown here
is that government debt has been soaring, contributing to other
positive economic numbers but leaving us with a debt burden for the
future. I think the economy is weaker than the general consensus of
economic reporters, because they haven’t looked as closely at what is
inside the numbers.