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Guest Post: 2011 Tipping Points

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By Gordon T. Long of Tipping Points

2011 Tipping Points (pdf)

Throughout my 2010 article series "Extend & Pretend" and "Sultans of Swap" I stressed that we were rapidly moving from the Financial Crisis of 2008, through the Economic Fallout of 2009 -2010, towards a Political Crisis in 2011 -2012. We are now clearly beginning to see the early emergence of the final part of this continuum.  From North Africa to Wisconsin all are fundamentally based on the single insidious underlying problem - excessive global debt and credit levels.

The global macroeconomic environment appears to be rapidly unraveling. The situations in North Africa through the Middle East are blatant proof of social unrest and accelerating political instability. Food shortages and inflation pressures are now driving people into the streets. When you feel the hunger in your stomach and see it in the eyes of your children, it quickly erupts and motivates people to action.
   
It is now time to revisit our Tipping Points framework to see where this is leading. A framework that is clearly pointing to a global fiat currency failure and an emerging new world order which is detailed in our "2011 Thesis - Beggar-thy-Neighbor".

Our Tipping Points which are outlined below are adjusted continuously based on daily news flow analysis.  Through a proprietary 'Process of Abstraction' news is tracked and consolidated around these potentially critical flash points.

CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE THIS QUARTER

INCREASES                                IS    WAS    CHANGE   

1) Oil Price Pressures                 14    30    +16
2) China Bubble                           9    22    +13   
3) Food Price Pressures               5    15    +10
4) Rising Inflation Pressures &
    Interest Rate Pressures            6    14   +  8
5) Geo-Political Event Risk                          New
6) Social Unrest                                         New

DECREASES

1) North & Southern Korea         30    12    -18
2) Financial Crisis Programs
    Expiration Impact                   34    24    -10

The Tectonic Shifts from 2007 to 2013 are best shown in the following illustration which is closely tracking our expectations and projections from the early stage of the financial crisis.

CONCLUSIONS

We need to carefully watch:

1) The increasing & accelerated contagion of social tensions. Watch for Asia demonstrations in places such as North Korea.
2) How and if the Central Banks actually do unwind their  crisis ‘triage’ programs or are they realistically now permanent and necessary to maintain the illusion of financial stability?
3) New government public policy initiatives to combat growing inflation and price pressures
4) The financial sectors abilities to continue to hide massive nonperforming commercial and residential real estate loans through Federal Reserve endorsed accounting gimmickry.

These events will allow us to determine if our roadmap is still valid or if we are going to see even sooner and possibly poorer financial outcomes than we predict in our free Monthly Market Commentary and Market Analytics reports.

The public will soon wake up to the magnitude of money printing that is going on to support the economic recovery fallacy. When the public does become aware, “Money Velocity” will accelerate. When this happens, the likelihood is that the markets will dramatically rise, not because economic conditions are improving, but rather because of a depreciating US dollar.  We believe this expectation is presently being priced into the market. We are truly exposed to the potential of a “Minsky Melt-Up” or more correctly from an Austrian perspective, a Von Mises “Crack-up Boom”. 

The risks are presently towards a SHORT TERM corrective consolidation. The Intermediate Term calls for higher market highs into June 2011 - then it gets ugly - fast!

“The Federal Reserve historically was the lender of last resort in a crisis;
Today, the Federal Reserve is the buyer of first resort in a crisis
..... and every day for that matter”

 

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Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:43 | 997842 zebra
zebra's picture

wishingful thinking. i like it.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:56 | 997885 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Or, as Charlie Sheen would say, magical thinking.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:14 | 998067 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

What about this exchange on CNBC today? (Feb 25th 2011)

 

 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WC9CpdeHF8

or if you prefer the cnbc link.....

 - http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1817702861&play=1

 

Damon Vickers, Nine Points Capital Management founder talks about QE2 and why he thinks bernanke is buying up the US debt

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:16 | 998137 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

yes, i saw that .   what a set - up !   conditioning the people to accept this one-world government & one-world currency . ...... biggest scam & rip-off in the history of the world.... i can't get out of this story !  

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:20 | 998389 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

IMO, the best part:

"

Carl:We issued ahh....30 billion in 7 year notes this morning and yields are down. I mean the vigilantes, we always say, if they are so worried, why are they hiding?

Damon: Who did we issue those to?

Car:      Whoever bought them.  I mean the point is supply came online and it was absorbed....

Damon: Who was that?

Carl:       .....in a week where risk was off.

Damon: Who bought those bonds?

Lady:   Who did buy it? Was it all the Fed? You think nobody bought?

Damon: Who bought those bonds?

Carl:    Could have been the Fed, could have been the chinese japanese.

Damon: I dont think so. I don't think sales are taking place. Thats why QE2 Exists. They are issuing debt and printing paper and printing money because there is not the absorbtive capacity of the world to absorb the debt, and thats where we are.

"

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:57 | 998799 Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

Jesus Christ, I just realized that Carl is saying what most people people think.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 22:07 | 998818 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Bingo

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 22:20 | 998845 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Yes!

First reaction to a non-sale would be "ooo f!"

But they saw this coming, so they swept it under the rug as if Nooooothing is wrong.

Because if they said "This shit's broken!"  WTF happens next?

And the deadly question is: "In how many facets of existence are we already playing beyond the Event Horizon?"

/scary/

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:20 | 999017 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

My personal favorite from the news today was Megyn Kelly on Fox telling everyone they should "Go ahead and fill up their cars today to save money before the prices rise."

 

Lol. That advice will help for all of about a week. What's your next advice? Stock up on groceries? Oh wait, if people do that they are considered conspiracy theorists and hoarders. Please Fox, tell me what I need to do.

 

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:44 | 999072 Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

This obsession with Fox is borderline delusional and without a question juvenile.  Just stop watching it for christ's sake.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:47 | 999080 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Do you ever get the feeling some people here would go to the beach, and complain about the sand?

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 03:51 | 999317 captain_menace
captain_menace's picture

Ever get sand up in your nether regions?  Sucks.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:59 | 999100 Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

No obsession here brej.  Don't even have cable.  Shit, don't even have T.V.  Just lamenting my, or our, own alienation.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:31 | 999617 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

gosh, me either!  I would rather have a nice pair of shoes to go to work in then pay my hard earned money to a cable company that shows people dumber than I am.  What's to look up to or idolize?  At least all you great guys here on ZH are making me think and sometimes that hurts.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 06:23 | 999390 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

People on FOX talk about what is talked about here.  You hear references to zero hedge frequently and increasingly.  They have the audience for good reasons.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 08:44 | 999463 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Well hey, not to butt in and change the subject or anything, but looky what the fucking cocksuckers up in washington state are proposing. That's right, a get out of jail free card for banksters through a total rewrite of the existing contract law that protects homebuyers.

http://apps.leg.wa.gov/documents/billdocs/2011-12/Pdf/Bills/Senate%20Bills/5275-S.pdf

Looks like those motherfuckers up in Wash State got a big payoff from the banksters and have rewritten contract law so that foreclosures don't need to have the actual wet ink promissory note.

Scroll down to item 7 (a).

Just fucking WOW if this goes through.

 

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 10:28 | 999549 John Wilmot
John Wilmot's picture

That seems to be almost an ex post facto...but we did that a while ago by rewriting the compensation contracts for some of the bankers didn't we...

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:46 | 999634 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

To Dirtt.

Making 1 post about Fox doesn't make me delusional. Stop your slandering. I was responding to the posts above me talking about CNBC saying how I saw something funny on Fox. If the news broadcast that I mentioned happened on any other channel I would have mentioned that channel instead.

The thing I found funny was recommending people to fill up their gas tanks before price rises which will only be helpful for a week because gas prices are set to stay high. If anything, if people all listened to that advice and all went out and filled up their gas tanks at the same time, they could cause unnecessary panic and price rises.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 12:06 | 999652 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

I have to agree.  For example, if you came trudging by my road frontage in rags and hungry, I would not give you a loaf of bread and a canned ham, it would only help for a week.  If I cannot completely and totally solve your problems why try to ameliorate them for a week or two. 

What if those people being smart, filled all their gas cans and the 55 gallon drum hidden in the garage.  Now their tiller and tractor work for the planting season.  Oh forget it they won't have it next year so better to starve now..

 

Bahh, bahh

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 12:17 | 999661 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

Thank you for your response Calmyourself.

Your post is exactly what I was meaning in my original post. Just because I mention the name of the news company that issued the bad advice doesn't mean I should get lambasted.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 06:44 | 999399 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

Carl is attempting to reinforce the belief. Most people have not a clue what Carl was talking about. Anyone who does have a clue has to know that Carl is BS'ing.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 12:23 | 999671 grok
grok's picture

so clue us in..?  are you saying that the fed is not buying treasuries?  We already know that they are

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 01:16 | 1003131 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

Agreed-the fed is buying treasuries. Carl is holding up his part of the psy-op. Anyone who knows anything about the treasury markets knows the fed is the buyer. Carl just cant say it because many people have no idea what a treasury auction is--and Carl is keeping those folks in the dark. I apologize that I was not more clear.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 22:51 | 998893 prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

zero hedge has already clarified this vicous profit making cycle; treasury sells to primary dealers [wall street banks ] and they sit on em for a week or so, and then sell the back to the fed for a profit

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 22:54 | 998900 prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

zero hedge has already clarified this vicous profit making cycle on US Treasury bills; treasury sells to primary dealers [wall street banks ] and they sit on em for a week or so, and then sell them back to the federal reserve bank for a profit

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:45 | 999632 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

haha, the best part..... was when Damon shoved Carl's foot in his mouth to stop spewing lies

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 20:22 | 998569 DosZap
DosZap's picture

lynnbee,

And,SO IT IS WRITTEN.

What we are living thru has been in the works for thousands of years.None of this is accidental, or due to Wall St thieves, Bankers, and Politicians.

It's a part of the PLAN.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:00 | 998672 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

Correct

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:13 | 998706 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

you betcha

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:06 | 998995 Rusty Shorts
Sat, 02/26/2011 - 10:33 | 999556 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

"The violent twilight of oil"

 

 

http://nakedempire.wordpress.com/

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:43 | 999629 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

here here...

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:17 | 999011 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

Catch the look on Vickers' face when he says to Becky "Who is buying our debt??"  "WHO"??  Thnx for the post.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 10:10 | 999536 clymer
clymer's picture

Vickers = NWO shill. He grew up in the company

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 12:33 | 999686 Drachma
Drachma's picture

Exactly. He is an actor in psyop theatre. His role is framer of thesis-antithesis-synthesis.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 14:18 | 999922 chopper read
chopper read's picture

LISTEN TO THESE CHARLATANS: "..'as we transition' to a 'global economy.'" "..to 'help investors' transition to a 'New World Order.'" ...DISGUSTINGLY TRANSPARENT NEUROLINGUISTIC PROGRAMMING.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:45 | 997847 Bleeping Fed
Bleeping Fed's picture

Methinks the China bubble should rank #1.  God only knows what will happen when it pops.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:47 | 997856 falak pema
falak pema's picture

classical beggar thy neighbour remark!! Lol!

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 10:34 | 999557 John Wilmot
John Wilmot's picture

I'm not so sure about the premise of your statement. China has been the favored child of the PTB for a very long time. The West built the Chinese industrial base in the same way that the West built the Soviet Union. Totalitarian state capitalism, what's not to like from their perspective? ...I don't see China collapsing any time soon.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:45 | 997849 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Lets skip to 2012...this is too depressing!

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:53 | 998070 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Why don't you refrain from posting until 2012...

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 03:58 | 999320 Blank Reg
Blank Reg's picture

If you think 2011 is depressing, what makes you think 2012 will be any better?

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:38 | 999623 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

Mr. Blank...you are really scaring me.  Last year I had a hard time making ends meet, this year it looks like I won't be able get them to even wavy at each other.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:49 | 997866 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Marc Faber McAlvany Interview 23 February 2011.

 

 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uEbhPuoTx0

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:22 | 997948 PuppetRepubl1c
PuppetRepubl1c's picture

thx for the link  :P

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:50 | 998055 pslater
pslater's picture

Tnanks indeed.  Faber will be proved roght IMHO.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:09 | 998113 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

Awesome video, Alex Jones exposing the fraud that Glenn Beck is over a 15 minute expose. Rips him a new asshole.

http://www.infowars.com/the-glenn-beck-secret/

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:11 | 998696 francis_the_won...
francis_the_wonder_hamster's picture

Thanks for that link.....always like Alex Jones.

Beck, to state the obvious, is a tool (in more ways than one).

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 10:53 | 999577 Edmund Dantes
Edmund Dantes's picture

and yet Alex Jones will never touch the biggest issue of all.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:15 | 999599 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

No , he will not go near it . He is bought and paid for and probably was from the start.  This is the feeling of many now.  It was a lie from the start.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 12:44 | 999707 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Another Bingo

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 19:59 | 1000576 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

The biggest issue:  Which is?

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:46 | 999633 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

I saw a picture of that Glenn Beck guy.  He looks like that new medallion of Mr. Paulsen to me.  Sort of scary, definitely NOT someone I would want to date. Not even for money....euuu.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:54 | 997878 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

The Mish Sunday Funnies comic is funny, no? Father-time should have had fistfuls of Gold in order to fit in around here...

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:02 | 997892 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
Gold is the money of kings;   Silver is the money of gentlemen;   Barter is the money of peasants; But debt is the money of slaves."
Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:32 | 997984 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Debt is the priviledges of Kings, savings are the burden of the slave.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:07 | 998106 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

War is peace, etc.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:17 | 998714 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

"The silly blond face beamed into his. Winston had a hallucination of himself smashing a pickax right into the middle of it."

There's a lot of face and head smashing in that 1984 novel.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:55 | 998071 impending doom
impending doom's picture

fiat is the money of floridiots

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:02 | 998092 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

War is the sport of kings.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 23:13 | 998922 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

RF, as history usually shows, war is the error of kings. Not the sport.

Every king ultimately got his knickers handed to him by money-lenders through war. Why do you think they were always marrying off their daughters left right and center? To keep the peace.

You really must leave your fortified basement sometimes. Even Dune, which you quote fast and well is actually not a series about war, but a series about how to find real peace.

II'm sure you also know that in most battle-fields, soldiers were usually killed with blows to their back...running away. 

War is no one's sport. It's coming is in-evitable because of where we are in the cycles of time and our own lack of development, EVEN this go around.

But to raise war to the status of something admired and wished for?

Same to all the war-mongers everywhere. 

A gun is the biggest inflator of false courage and the single cause of the decline of the west.

The gun stripped away your manhood. As a hunter or a warrior.

Now it's all packed away in a little cartridge.

Think sniper, the ultimate coward.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/25/wisdom-for-warriors-7/

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:03 | 998985 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

[A gun is the biggest inflator of false courage and the single cause of the decline of the west.]---ORI

Hi ORI. Thanks for your post. It was an excellent post up until the above quote. Thereafter, your post does not express the uncommon sense of wisdom and fairness you normally exhibit.

War is a terrible thing. Let's not denigrate the courage of those who are called to the front lines of it---regardless of the weapons of their time.

 

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:19 | 999016 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Founders, thanks for the comment and I understand what you are pointing to. I served 12 years in the Indian Navy, know the pernicious effect of war. Also the son of an Air Force officer (decorated top gunner). It's in my bones and I found it repelled me.

The statement about snipers and guns is not a specific take on anyone's courage or lack thereof. But to point out a trend.
You see, the predator drone is the logical extension of the sniper, as soon as the technology became available.

And I see no courage in the drone jockey, can you?

Also, did you ever see the videos of the Blackwater snipers in Iraq? If you have, I rest my case. A gun is a cowards implement. No more. If it is the tool of this time in war, then we have succumbed to it's coward making tendency.

And the gun's role in false courage inflation is to be seen every day in the hood and in the gangs and in the criminal mind in general.

War is in-evitable and unnecessary. Quite the quandary eh?

ORI

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:36 | 999054 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Krishna exhorted Arjuna to fight in the Mahabharata -- there are some things worth fighting for.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 01:13 | 999094 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Stycho, being of Hindu origin and born to a philosopher warrior, I grew up on a steady diet of the Gita and the Mahabharata and the wisdom of Krishna and the confused valour of Arjuna.

But looking back, greay hair and all, I started finding it really strange that all our epics/mythos are based on great wars. Bible, mahabharata, Ramayana.... angy gods, vengeful gods, petty gods.

 

So I learned to look behind the analogy, betwen the lines.

And rejected the entire thesis, keeping only the essence, whcih fits into a singly syllable.

The lie we are currently living has been in the making for centuries. And centuries. Millenia even.

If there is a battleground, the only one worth warring in/on, it's with-in.

ORI

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 01:17 | 999128 Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

But pacifism is a tactical decision too, no?

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 01:26 | 999145 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Strike back, tactics and strategy speak to a linear mind and a mind-set.

The truly free has a mind-flex and lives in the moment, where all possibilities exist, not in the moment-um, where you are a slave to linearity.

We live in a time and space though where non-linear possibilites are open to all of us.

ORI

 http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/25/wisdom-for-warriors-7/

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 01:44 | 999166 Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

The dharma body of the buddha is the hedge at the bottom of the garden, and the one who realizes this fact is a golden haired lion.  Soul-body continuum, etc.  Maybe I'm thinking too linearly, but perhaps your point is that the inception of peace and the intent towards it will achieve it in the mental and physical realm?

 

This is, however, besides the point, my point at least.  When someone seeks to rob you of your life, liberty or property, your choices are limited.  Resistance of any sort in this situation is by definition not cowardly.  Whereas some may be willing to sacrifice themselves and the lives of others under the tactic of pacifism to attain their end of "ultimate peace," there are those of us that are willing to pick up the gun before it gets to that point.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 02:07 | 999203 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Strike back, perhaps peace and war are nothing but words (causative words though) and the state I am referring to is beyond that. To paraphrase Lao Tzu, for the realized warrior, no place for a tiger's claw or a spear in the battlefield to harm such a man.

And since we can bandy words about till the cows come home, i thought I'd share this, the brilliant Patrick Farley and Electric Sheep Comics, The Jain's death.

It captures the dilemma of non-violence brilliantly.

In-joy...

http://www.electricsheepcomix.com/jain/

ORI

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 02:47 | 999266 Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

Mind bending + expanding. If I may, from fellow ZH poster "blindman":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-20ZobInUg&NR=1

Part 1 of 2

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 14:16 | 999913 velobabe
velobabe's picture

i really liked that story, ORI. a little hit @ home, iam not scared. i liked it was the ant and not the farmer. i think i understand the story line. but that is probably the point, one gets to draw own conclusion to matters†

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 23:05 | 1000904 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

:-)

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 02:12 | 999209 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

God didn't make all men equal.

Mr. Colt did.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 05:38 | 999371 falak pema
falak pema's picture

He made the bad guy feel he was king. False flag if ever there was one.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:56 | 999372 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Every man is the king of his own castle. If you do not realize that, you are just a slave.

Be a slave if you want. It seems the natural state of Islam. I will follow a different path.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 10:32 | 999555 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Strike Back

"When someone seeks to rob you of your life, liberty or property, your choices are limited.  Resistance of any sort in this situation is by definition not cowardly"

And that is where you lose in the consciousness game.

ATTACHMENT is what prevents one from attaining inner peace. Even desiring to not desire is still a desire. You got to give it all up and away if you really want to be free. Until then you are held hostage.

ATTACHMENT makes one Marley's Ghost dragging those strong boxes around for eternity.

Then again the path of inner peace is not for the faint hearted. Many can't even grasp the concept of owning nothiong not even their body/breath/mind. Even in the Zen world you rarely see Monks burn temples and scrolls because they have come to realize it is all follishness that acts like an anchor dragging one down to the world of the mundane.

You will find that all mystics say the same thing about ATTACHMENT. That true freedom and understanding only comes when you can freely give up everything including life.

 

George Carlin on Stuff

Actually this is just a place for my stuff, ya know? That's all, a little place for my stuff. That's all I want, that's all you need in life, is a little place for your stuff, ya know? I can see it on your table, everybody's got a little place for their stuff. This is my stuff, that's your stuff, that'll be his stuff over there. That's all you need in life, a little place for your stuff. That's all your house is: a place to keep your stuff. If you didn't have so much stuff, you wouldn't need a house. You could just walk around all the time.

A house is just a pile of stuff with a cover on it. You can see that when you're taking off in an airplane. You look down, you see everybody's got a little pile of stuff. All the little piles of stuff. And when you leave your house, you gotta lock it up. Wouldn't want somebody to come by and take some of your stuff. They always take the good stuff. They never bother with that crap you're saving. All they want is the shiny stuff. That's what your house is, a place to keep your stuff while you go out and get...more stuff!

Sometimes you gotta move, gotta get a bigger house. Why? No room for your stuff anymore. Did you ever notice when you go to somebody else's house, you never quite feel a hundred percent at home? You know why? No room for your stuff. Somebody else's stuff is all over the goddamn place! And if you stay overnight, unexpectedly, they give you a little bedroom to sleep in. Bedroom they haven't used in about eleven years. Someone died in it, eleven years ago. And they haven't moved any of his stuff! Right next to the bed there's usually a dresser or a bureau of some kind, and there's NO ROOM for your stuff on it. Somebody else's shit is on the dresser. Meditation will not relieve you of this stress either.

Have you noticed that their stuff is shit and your shit is stuff? God! And you say, "Get that shit offa there and let me put my stuff down!"

Sometimes you leave your house to go on vacation. And you gotta take some of your stuff with you. Gotta take about two big suitcases full of stuff, when you go on vacation. You gotta take a smaller version of your house. It's the second version of your stuff. And you're gonna fly all the way to Honolulu. Gonna go across the continent, across half an ocean to Honolulu. You get down to the hotel room in Honolulu and you open up your suitcase and you put away all your stuff. "Here's a place here, put a little bit of stuff there, put some stuff here, put some stuff--you put your stuff there, I'll put some stuff--here's another place for stuff, look at this, I'll put some stuff here..." And even though you're far away from home, you start to get used to it, you start to feel okay, because after all, you do have some of your stuff with you. That's when your friend calls up from Maui, and says, "Hey, why don'tchya come over to Maui for the weekend and spend a couple of nights over here."

Oh, no! Now what do I pack? Right, you've gotta pack an even SMALLER version of your stuff. The third version of your house. Just enough stuff to take to Maui for a coupla days. You get over to Maui--I mean you're really getting extended now, when you think about it. You got stuff ALL the way back on the mainland, you got stuff on another island, you got stuff on this island. I mean, supply lines are getting longer and harder to maintain. You get over to your friend's house on Maui and he gives you a little place to sleep, a little bed right next to his windowsill or something. You put some of your stuff up there. You put your stuff up there. You got your Visine, you got your nail clippers, and you put everything up. It takes about an hour and a half, but after a while you finally feel okay, say, "All right, I got my nail clippers, I must be okay." That's when your friend says, "Aaaaay, I think tonight we'll go over the other side of the island, visit a pal of mine and maybe stay over."

Aww, no. NOW what do you pack? Right--you gotta pack an even SMALLER version of your stuff. The fourth version of your house. Only the stuff you know you're gonna need. Money, keys, comb, wallet, lighter, hanky, pen, smokes, rubber and change. Well, only the stuff you HOPE you're gonna need.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:23 | 999609 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Gully, rulers have always been at the mercy of their courts. Ruler-ship, in it's deepest sense, dis-appeared a long time ago. And this is true everywhere, east and west. We have no real historical accounts of any true golden ages.

Only gilded ones.

And you've accurately pointed the root of it all. Attachment. I highly recommend the practise of detachment...

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/10/14/the-practice-of-detachment/

ORI

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 14:35 | 999969 velobabe
velobabe's picture

ORI, i am with you on this one. that is why i liked pottery so much, taught me de attachment. the great man, paul soldner, taught this. plus i worked in glass and it ability to break, as well. oh well, move along, makes real ¢'s now†

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 19:29 | 1000540 Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

Great quote.  Made me feel better about being a struggling law grad. 

In response to your attachment argument, I am going to paraphrase Zhuangzi.

When discussing "the way," Zhuangzi addressed certain schools of thought that came close to attaining or following the way.  One of these schools taught total detachment from everything, material possessions included but joyous activities such as singing and dancing as well.  Zhuangzi said that while the becoming unencumbered with possessions approached the following of the way, the impulse to force people to ignore things that they naturally loved, such as singing and dancing, was contrived and would thus lead to nothing but confusion, leading the school away from the way.

Every school of thought has a value system, even that of the mystics, which, paradoxically I understand, values valuelessness.  Many people value life, their loved ones, and the simple possessions that enable them to sustain life.  Overvaluation of such things leads to gross imbalances, I agree.  This does not mean, however, that valuation of these things should be cast off.  I don't think that such casting off is possible or desirable, as evident by your zen buddhists not being able to burn their temples (for good reason) or your statement that even the desire to be desireless is a desire.  For me, it is better to cast off such infinitely paradoxical paradigms and accept the things that I value.  And protect them if necessary.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:05 | 998990 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

The quote points out the arrogance of kings.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:24 | 999032 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Ah, ok. Arrogance or stupidity, point taken.

Still like to reinforce the point that War has always been a last resort, except for megalomaniacs like Caesar or Napoleon.

Worse yet, they were often tricked into going to war by the moneylenders.

Still are.

ORI

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 02:16 | 999216 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

As long as you do not try to force your pacifism on me, we can co-exist.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 04:36 | 999338 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

"Phew!!!" For a moment I thought was in the cross-hairs! Good to know co-existence is an option.

;-)

ORI

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 05:29 | 999343 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Never kill anything you don't have to. It evens out the karma for killing what you do.

How do Jainists deal with the fact that their bodies kill millions of bacteria per day?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftUOlj7EHnk

Yellowbeard: the funniest movie ever made, in the history of the world, btw.

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 10:41 | 999562 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Oh regional Indian

Ever check out the OAHSPE?

Interesting and unusual read, all passive vegetarian.

Your theory about war reflects on the western world, but what about Japan and China. I'm not certain their wars were due to money lending, but unification. I'm pretty sure they didn't have a banking class seperate from the government.

Yes there was an economic factor regarding payment for their underlings, but to the best of my knowledge the state controlled the purse strings not private bankers.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 12:43 | 999704 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Thanks for the link to OAHSPE. Did a brief take, it needs a day or three, will go through. I have an aversion for Theosophy and the New Age Movement it spawned in general.

ORI

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 09:12 | 999475 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself." - John Stuart Mill

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 10:45 | 999568 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

New_Meat

 

  • Wise men don't need to prove their point;
    men who need to prove their point aren't wise.
    The Master has no possessions.
    The more he does for others, the happier he is.
    The more he gives to others, the wealthier he is.
    The Tao nourishes by not forcing.
    By not dominating, the Master leads.
Sat, 02/26/2011 - 10:49 | 999572 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

that would take all of the fun out of this, n'est ce pas?

Is the Tao in ZH? ;-)

- Ned

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:24 | 999605 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

"Men sleep peacefully in their beds at night
because rough men stand ready
to do violence on their behalf."

  • Notes: allegedly said by George Orwell although there is no evidence that Orwell ever wrote or uttered either of these versions of this idea. They do bear some similarity to comments made in an essay that Orwell wrote on Rudyard Kipling, when quoting from one of his poems. Orwell did write, in his essay on Kipling, that the latter's "grasp of function, of who protects whom, is very sound. He sees clearly that men can only be highly civilized while other men, inevitably less civilized, are there to guard and feed them." (1942)
    • "Yes, making mock o' uniforms that guard you while you sleep" - Rudyard Kipling (Tommy)
    • "I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, then questions the manner in which I provide it." - Aaron Sorkin (A Few Good Men)
  • Alternative: "We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm." - Winston Churchill (miscellaneous quotation, no date)
  • Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:17 | 998712 dexter_morgan
    dexter_morgan's picture

    Miller High Life is the champagne of bottled beers

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:56 | 997882 RED BARRON
    RED BARRON's picture

    A print of 33.50 on spot silver means 34.50 will follow in a hurry.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:01 | 997891 bingaling
    bingaling's picture

    Road maps to hell -

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:34 | 997991 Guy Fawkes Mulder
    Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Maps_of_Hell ?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z3Pn-QW_Ls ("New Dark Ages" only)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ek3TUKgzYo (whole 3-song set)

    Don't know if anyone cares, but meh, I linked 'em anyway.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:42 | 998026 zaknick
    zaknick's picture

    When the Roman empire fell, historical data shows an improvement in nutrition values for the majority of people in the region. I firmly believe that God's Great Thunderclap will be beneficial in all kinds of as yet unanticipated ways to the whole world.

    Screw the banksters's world. From the UN to all kinds of perversions of the liberal ( in the true meaning of the world not the ignorant one) state, it all needs to burn and along with it any vestige of the little mafiosi who call themselves "elites". The survivors of these elites must be persecuted and purged thoroughly (along with their ill-gotten fortunes) and be made public examples of how to deal with the epic corruption capable of destroying countries and placing our loved ones in harms way.

    He's got the whole world in His hands....

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:12 | 998130 Zero Govt
    Zero Govt's picture

    Can't help but admire capitalisms Grim Reaper..... the end-game that cannot be avoided by any parasitical elite down the centuries... it's 'Cull Time'

    ..and we've never had such a huge parasitical tape worm on society in history with a public sector 30-60% of GDP where previously it was under 2%, including national and local Govt, the EU, UN, IMF and all the other alphabet soup of useless institutionalised windbags  

     

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:08 | 998690 cosmictrainwreck
    cosmictrainwreck's picture

    maybe you could change your tag to "2% Govt" Ha! If we ever got back there, that would be heavenly, wouldn't it?

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 20:33 | 998594 DosZap
    DosZap's picture

    zak,

    This time HIS plan is different.

    Read the BOOK.

    We get the NWO, we have a NEW world Leader.And you are not going to like whats in store,unless your in HIS hands.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 23:08 | 998917 prophet_banker
    prophet_banker's picture

     

    "The survivors of these elites must be persecuted"

     

    i hope you meant prosecuted, as "they" already have a victim mentality, and i'd hate to see real reform fail by falling into "theirR" paradigm of persecution, when policy change is all that is needed; strip those banks of their right to conjure into existance our money supply.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:03 | 997900 OMG
    OMG's picture

    We are so fucked

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:42 | 998031 RockyRacoon
    RockyRacoon's picture

    Not quite yet.  We are at the lube application stage.   And none too gently.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:00 | 998084 DoChenRollingBearing
    DoChenRollingBearing's picture

    Good characterization Rocky!

    ...

    Expect Math Man and his Ferrari to show up soon.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 20:39 | 998614 Arkadaba
    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:15 | 998134 Gene Parmesan
    Gene Parmesan's picture

    They tried to spit on it but missed. Oh well, here it comes anyway...

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:41 | 998220 cougar_w
    cougar_w's picture

    I am amazed that anyone claims that we are currently fucked. They have no idea what "we are so fucked" looks like. It does not look like $3.50 gas and cotton limits up, that shit is for kids and will look like sweet heaven. We are definitely on the road to being fucked, might have even gone a long ways down that road, but the actual insertion of the fucking tool hasn't even started. We'll know when we're properly fucked, there will be no possible doubt we are fucked, everyone will cry out as one in a loud voice "we are so fucked" and little children will turn to their daddies and dewy eyed ask, "Daddy why are we so fucked?"

    At the moment, no. We are not even close to fucked.

    But we're getting there! Oh yeah. Totally fucked is in our near future.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:39 | 998446 philgramm
    philgramm's picture

    I think he/she meant that the future fucking is inevitable (semantics).  You are right that we haven't felt the pain of insertion as yet.  But Bubba has us cornered in a jail cell for sure;-)

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:44 | 998464 cougar_w
    cougar_w's picture

    I'm sure you are right, but I felt it had to be said in the generic sense. I just went with what I had to work with :)

    Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:44 | 999073 financeguru500
    financeguru500's picture

    To compare the situation to a recent movie "2012", I would say "we" are currently at the situation where John Cusack realizes what is about to happen and is then driving to the house to get his exwife and kids.

    When I say "we" I mean the people who currently realize the inevitableness of the situation. All of us have the chance to get our ducks in a row, buy affordable long shelf life food and other commodities.

    When we hit the part of the movie where John Cusack is actually in the car with the exwife and kids trying to get to the airport and the entire city is falling apart, I would say that will be when gas hits $7 a gallon. I know in Europe gas is already around that price, but people don't drive nearly as much over there. Factoring in those kind of fuel prices here with the amount of personal & governmental debt would be the breaking point.

    Then everyone realizes and people are trying to get to the ships to get out of here lol.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:52 | 998484 Shell Game
    Shell Game's picture

    lmao.. Fucking good clarification!

    Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:05 | 998992 bluebare
    bluebare's picture

    I think we're closer than you think.  Last night, at his request, I laid out the facts about how totally fucked my eighteen-year-old son is for him.  He now knows his father owns a cabin in Canada.  I told him he should read at least one zh article a day to begin rapidly acquiring some of the knowledge he would need to understand and survive being totally fucked. 

    Sat, 02/26/2011 - 09:16 | 999479 New_Meat
    New_Meat's picture

    zh to calibrate his mind set. and, as a start e.g.:

    http://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?sts=t&tn=five+acres+indepe...

    - Ned

    Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:25 | 1000603 bluebare
    bluebare's picture

    Thanks Ned.  If I end up in your neighborhood, I'd like to be a contributing member of the coop, please.  Scott

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:06 | 998332 Zero Govt
    Zero Govt's picture

    THEY are so fuked, they're a big slow diseased dumb dinosaur... you're a small fast flexible mammal... move your arse, get prepared 

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:05 | 997902 OnTheFelt
    OnTheFelt's picture

    We just had the proverbial "family meeting" in my circle two nights ago.  IMO we have 3-6 months of normalcy before the real unpleasantries begin.

    As a result, I'm out....I've already done the Army thing for 12 years of my life, so really not interested in participating in a  "Mad Max" scenario.

    Got the precious metals, got the means, got the chance.  When the beer is gone I'm gone.

    I come in peace....and I will leave in peace.

     

    Our current paridigm is DEAD!

     

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRB4dVk4kK0

     

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:27 | 997964 bingaling
    bingaling's picture

    hell of a video . I didn't think other people were talking about how we need to be own leaders and not give our power to someone to vote on bailouts ,QE ,wars ,corporatist laws . It is ridiculous we think we have democracy .  Good luck to you and stay safe .

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:36 | 998001 OnTheFelt
    OnTheFelt's picture

    Much appreciated brother....You do the same. 

     

    Just to expand further, I was already planning a future transition to where I'm going, but much slower and on perfect terms.  The thing however that we must consider is, if we wait until the shit hits the fan, is there really any guarantee we would be able to get out.  IMO, no.

    To avoid the storm, you gotta be gone before the storm.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 22:47 | 998884 KTV Escort
    KTV Escort's picture

    just remember (everyone)... never quit, no matter how bad things get

    watch The Mist (the ending, for clarification of my point)

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 23:16 | 998926 prophet_banker
    prophet_banker's picture

    hell yes, there is a solution, lets referendum California style, a policy change in finance, or wether to be in Iraq, Afganistan, and the other 160+countries we have bases in

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:51 | 998058 pimpmysteel
    pimpmysteel's picture

    two 4' x 24' garden beds going in on Sunday.

     

    what the fuck am i going to do when the beer runs out?

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:01 | 998088 Ragnarok
    Ragnarok's picture

    Homebrew or moonshine, hell the B.C. Egyptians figured it out.

    Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:26 | 999035 Rusty Shorts
    Rusty Shorts's picture

     - if you're looking for answers

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u_d2V_UvkQ

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:18 | 998146 lynnybee
    lynnybee's picture

    L.O.L. ..... I'm worried sick about not having milk & coffee at my fingertips ........ what will i do without lattes  !!  ........... but, let's think bigger than this .......... WHAT ABOUT THE ELDERLY & THE CHILDREN ........... focus your efforts on stockpiling & sharing with the truly innocent ........damn BERNANKE ........ he ought to rot in jail & be tried for treason ...... that's my opinion & i'm sticking to it no matter how many junks I get ! (which seems to be a lot lately).

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:41 | 998228 pimpmysteel
    pimpmysteel's picture

    so true.

    my mom's over to watch the kids tonight.

    she walked into our pantry and said "my God, you have enough food to feed the whole family"

    I hope so mom.

     

    didnt show her the closet full of freeze dried stuff.

     

    Sat, 02/26/2011 - 02:40 | 999259 snowball777
    snowball777's picture

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wnk78TTj8to

     

    "...fret for your latte...and fret for your lawsuit...and fret for your hairpiece...and fret for your prozac...and fret for your pilot (MOYNIHAN)..."

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:01 | 998309 PalmiticGlycerin
    PalmiticGlycerin's picture

    + 12 pack

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:06 | 998334 cougar_w
    cougar_w's picture

    Awesome link. Eisenhower knew. He fucking knew.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 20:00 | 998499 B9K9
    B9K9's picture

    Eisenhower knew? Dude, everyone knew. I grew up in one of the nicer neighborhoods in your region because my dad was a highly valued cold warrior. Fuck, he knew shortly after being ordered to stand-down while in SAC. While he got paid to dream up new weird shit for the MIC, his brother was winning medals during the performance of multiple tours as a career USAF pilot. Think he knew? Shit, I had to console him a few years ago when he conceded it was all bullshit.

    My oldest son is just beginning to become aware of our reality. As it turns out, his mom's uncle got to enjoy the Platoon experience while serving in VN. In fact, it was so real that he broke off complete contact with all members of his family for 30+ years until he died.

    The experience of these 3 relatives has become an extremely convenient teaching tool for père et fils. Question: would you rather be:

    1. Pops, still living in comfort & style as a former, highly regarded member of the MIC; or
    2. Uncle D, who is now in living in comfort & style as a retired career officer, BUT first had to both kill the enemy & help save soldier's lives, then spend years on tour around the globe; or
    3. Uncle B, who got sprayed with Agent Orange, got shit on, and basically went nuts?

    Guess which option he chooses? Now, guess my punchline (hint: it has something to do with study hard and get into a top 10 school). Maxim (the inventor of the machine gun) was told to 'Hang your chemistry and electricity! If you want to make a pile of money, invent something that will enable these Europeans to cut each others' throats with greater facility.'

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 20:47 | 998641 DosZap
    DosZap's picture

    So did JFK..............

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 20:32 | 998592 TheMerryPrankster
    TheMerryPrankster's picture

    Wow.... when the world is so fucked up that Joe Rogan gets radicalized and says shit like this you got to reassess how close to the edge of the cliff we actually are.

    2011 the revolution might be televised, but most likely we'll have our eyeballs torn out first. A televised revolution for the blind, in a world filled with insanity. The game cannot be won, time for a new game.

    Sat, 02/26/2011 - 00:45 | 999076 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

     A televised revolution for the blind, in a world filled with insanity

    Very nicely describes our oxymoronish world today.

    ORI

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:04 | 997905 Fortunes Favor
    Fortunes Favor's picture


    Medes and Persians are at the Gates

    I have come across a passage in a novel I’m reading that strikes me as profound when applied to the world we are living in today. More specifically, the misguided government I find myself living under seems to have egregiously strayed from this simple principle. I beg those currently in power to take heed. Moreover, I implore my fellow constituents to wake up and deny those power who so flagrantly abuse the following ethic:

    http://rosenthalcapital.com/blog/2011/02/rosenthal-rant-medes-and-persians-are-at-the-gates/

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 20:49 | 998650 DosZap
    DosZap's picture

    Fortunes,

    No, they have stopped the water flow, and are in the city.

    mene mene tekel upharshin

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:08 | 997909 Paul Bogdanich
    Paul Bogdanich's picture

    For someone who is otherwise so through he neglects geophysical risk which is no longer nominal.  A major, shallow earthquake in Alaska, West coast US or East Coast Japan would tip this baby over.  The last events were 1964 and 1906 and the periodicity is 35 and 110 years respectively.  So over the next 20 years one of these events is a certainty.  over the next year or two the combined probability is higher than some of his other metrics which is why I think it's an oversight.  

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:11 | 997920 falak pema
    falak pema's picture

    did u have a particular baby in mind?

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:40 | 998231 serotonindumptruck
    serotonindumptruck's picture

    Yeah, the 9.2 event that occurred in March of '64 in Prince William Sound was a bad quake.

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/events/1964_03_28.php

    I can think of a few places where a 9.2 would cause catastrophic damage. New Madrid comes to mind. I expect the Yellowstone caldera to begin showing greater signs of activity soon. The Earth appears to be going through a period of intense seismic and volcanic activity.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 20:46 | 998636 TheMerryPrankster
    TheMerryPrankster's picture

    The New Madrid fault is particularly vexing. The soil in the region has a tendency to liquify during a seismic event, this will cause buildings to sink into the ground by dozens or tens of feet.

     

    http://www.showme.net/~fkeller/quake/liquefaction.htm

     

    Bad enough as that is, nearly all the gas and oil pipelines in the country traverse this region, meaning a collapse of petroleum supplies at a time when huge disaster would require precisely such materials to aid in rescue and rebuilding as well as triage.

     

    It would be a real shit storm, and one that may be on our doorstep, of course we've been on borrowed time for awhile so, statistically any one of a number of shoes could drop, either individually or collectively.

     

    reflect for a moment on what a west coast earthquake and a new Madrid quake happening in the same year would be like, then throw in the odd smallish meteor/comet like the one that detonated over Tunguska and we don't need to die to find out what hell is like.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

     

    Mother Nature can be a real bitch when she has a mind to.

     

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:36 | 998753 serotonindumptruck
    serotonindumptruck's picture

    Interesting link on the liquefaction phenomenon. Add to that the lack of a modified building code for earthquake resistant construction standards, along with the energy infrastructure that you pointed out, and one is left with a potentially devastating humanitarian and ecological disaster.

    The Pacific Ring of Fire seems to be showing a significant increase in activity. I believe the tsunami threat for the US West coast is a real concern.

    http://dprogram.net/2009/07/22/msm-earthquake-could-unleash-devastating-...

    Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:16 | 1000021 Cathartes Aura
    Cathartes Aura's picture

    "Mother Nature can be a real bitch when she has a mind to."

    The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) procures and stores pre-packaged
    commercial meals to support readiness capability for immediate distribution to disaster
    survivors routinely.  The purpose of this Request for Information is to identify sources of
    supply for meals in support of disaster relief efforts based on a catastrophic disaster event within the New Madrid Fault System for a survivor population of 7M to be utilized for the
    sustainment of life during a 10-day period of operations.   FEMA is considering the following specifications (14M meals per day):

    https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=eaea338540a0aea155a...

    Father Government was looking for some emergency food, but appears to have pulled out now. . .

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 23:57 | 998972 prophet_banker
    prophet_banker's picture

    i was shocked when i learned that this area, and into Alaska, has many of the biggest quakes recorded in history

    Sat, 02/26/2011 - 09:29 | 999493 New_Meat
    New_Meat's picture

    "... he neglects geophysical risk which is no longer nominal. "

    At least Hank Johnson is on the case.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yT48wiRue4

    whew!

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:10 | 997917 RobotTrader
    RobotTrader's picture

    I kind of figured that the market was going to melt up today because when we sold off this week, the dollar failed to rally and the AUD stayed pinned near the highs.

    Oh, well, nothing that cannot be stick saved by the Plutocrats using "Infinite Fiat".

    $20 billion in POMO's this week.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:25 | 997960 limcagoldspot
    limcagoldspot's picture

    Could you please elaborate Robo?  How is the USD weakness linked to move up today? Thanks.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:12 | 997922 Misean
    Misean's picture

    Man I had one of those TectonicShift deals on my Chevy Blazer's 350 when I was a kid. That was a blast.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:15 | 997929 JR
    JR's picture

    January Annual Inflation Rose to 1.6% (CPI-U), 1.8% (CPI-W), 9.1% Shadow Government Statistics (SGS)* (for subscribers February 17, 2011)

    QUOTE

    Surging Inflation Continues in Response to Fed’s Dollar-Debasement Efforts.  Consumer prices again rose by more than was expected by the markets, both in aggregate and in the nonsensical "core" inflation number hyped by the Fed and Wall Street’s inflation apologists.  The Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts at debasing the U.S. dollar have placed direct downside pressure on the exchange-rate value of the U.S. dollar and upside pressure on commodities priced in same.  At work here not only is in the impact of higher prices in dollar-denominated commodities such as oil and food, but also is in the spreading of those cost pressures into the broad economy…

    Separately, the Chained or Chain-Weighted CPI-U (C-CPI-U) was revised on an unadjusted basis, so that reported year-to-year inflation now appears to be showing lower inflation than the CPI-U on a consistent basis.  This fully substitution-based inflation measure was touted by the President’s deficit commission as the preferred measure for calculating cost of living adjustments (COLA) for Social Security and other programs.  Such would lower COLA adjustments, as the C-CPI fully would reflect substitution-based spending patterns, such as people buying more hamburger because steak had gotten too expensive.  This is directly counter to the CPI’s initial usage and purpose as a measure of the cost of living of maintaining a constant standard of living, a concept that many people wrongly assume still is the basis of the government’s inflation reporting…

    Alternate Consumer Inflation Measures. Adjusted to pre-Clinton (1990) methodology, annual CPI inflation was roughly 5.0% in January 2011, up from 4.8% in December, while the SGS-Alternate Consumer Inflation Measure, which reverses gimmicked changes to official CPI reporting methodologies back to 1980, rose to about 9.1% (9.07% for those using the extra digit) in January, from about 8.9% in December.

    * The SGS Alternative CPI-U measures are attempts at adjusting reported CPI-U inflation for the impact of methodological change of recent decades designed to move the concept of the CPI away from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:16 | 997930 bunkermeatheadp...
    bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

    Hoenig on CNBC right now, bashing the TBTFs.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:38 | 998440 Bob Sponge
    Bob Sponge's picture

    He did criticize TBTF, but in an unemotional voice, and said that the economy is in recovery which I disagree with. I came away from it feeling that Hoenig is more a part of the problem than the solution.

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 17:20 | 997940 lbrecken
    lbrecken's picture

    Agai it boils down to QE3 yet TYLER you continue to dodge true analysis of the subject.....

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 23:06 | 998913 defender
    defender's picture

    Ummmm, you do realize that this is a guest post......right?

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!