Guest Post: 30 Year Review Ahead Of Short Term Auctions

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by John Bougearel of Structural Logic


Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Anonymous's picture


Rosenberg - on Bloomberg just now

"The Recession has ended and it was priced into the market two months ago"

allow me to be the first to say thanks Dave

Anonymous's picture

and to think he admitted that to Kathleen Hayes - gag me with a spoon - - now to be fair he also alluded to the last recession and how it took a year an half for the recovery to take hold and the markets to bottom. But the bottom line is that he missed the turn so again I say thanks Dave

Anonymous's picture

These are rather odd times - it is very hard to find whats true and whats false. Strangely enough, something that is obviously false sometimes appears true to me too. I saw pigs flying today....

Dixie Normous's picture

AND he said does it matter. He then compared it to 01-03 and if I recall the 01 lows were taken out in 02.

I would say he was guarded at best.


assumptionblindness's picture

Great news!  One question, though:  How are we going to afford to buy more 'stuff' when working (for shi! wages) only 33 hours per week with only limited access to new credit while paying higher costs on 'legacy' plastic credit and gasoline for our cars?

Yeah!!!  Everything is OK now.   Whew...  

texpat's picture

MOT is up today.

Sadly, revenues were down 20%+ (to 5.5bil from 8bil). Does not sound like the end of the recession.

Anonymous's picture

Is this really true?!?!?!

After that piece he did with ZH that was so negative?!?!!?


Anonymous's picture

This week ROSIE issued a positive lunch report "now there's a green shoot" on the Case Schiller report showing improvement in pricing then turned around the very next day and said that he was too optimistic calling it a green shoot and that the data could be flawed because higher priced homes are now on the market...

Anonymous's picture

Yes, it is a fact that now more expensive homes are being foreclosed on and the wealthy are selling their more expensive homes (previously they had more cash to try and ride out the storm but they must now liquidate).

That's what's bringing the average price up.

Anonymous's picture

Are there ANY BEARS left out there?
Looks fishy to me.
I think that China is starting to unravel and this will collapse the rally and commodities.

Gilgamesh's picture

"When the last of the Bears turns bullish..."


He may not be the last, but it's close enough.  It's time.  Hammer time @ 3:58.

Anonymous's picture

Personally, I think Hugh Hendry has it right. This guy pussed out probably because he had too much skin in a game where the market is being frog-walked up the hill by Government Sachs and JP DEVIL.

Anonymous's picture

Part of me hopes so but yeah, it's starting to feel like this market is caught in a permanent updraft of cheap credit. No government in their right mind is stop it any time soon - at least willingly.

What makes you think China is starting to unravel? Any good data or articles to back that up can they too just stimulous spend in perpetuity?

Steak's picture

China's 8% blip the other day was most assuredly not the beginning of the end of their property/equity bubble.  Study commodity prices and commodity equities in July 08 to see what a bubble popping looks like.  It will be more uniform, more persistently down intraday rather than an accompanying updraft.

China's bubble popping will be a spectacular boom, but its this guy's opinion they can take another leg higher in this parabolic journey that is the Shanghai equity market.

Anonymous's picture

What's up with all the anonymous posts?

Anonymous's picture

yes I posted it and it's true the video should be up in a while - and you will hear him say those fateful words - to the the most (second most) annoying business reporter out there - like imagine him admitting that to Dennis Kneale - Kathleen Hayes is the female equiv of DK -- my head is going to explode - I think I'll watch Mad Money tonight

Dave also tipped his hat to the Bulls to add insult to injury

Anonymous's picture

Dean Maki said in his Barclays Economic Overview for the US that Q2 marks the official end of the recession and Q3 the 1st of the expansion..

Anonymous's picture

exact quote:

"the answer is yes we are getting to the very tail end of the recession" ..."but does it matter?"

Anonymous's picture

yeah does it matter?
because we are going to be in a world of hurt for years now.

Anonymous's picture

Double dip, anyone?

Mos's picture

The recession ended, the depression has begun...

john bougerel's picture



You may be onto something. But, I think there will be a gap between the end of the recession and the beginning of the depression. The power of the fiscal stimulus and unlimited excess of liquidity to the bankster via the feds lending facilities is going to create a buffer between the end of the Great Recession and the beginning of the next Great Depression. Let the roughly six-fold increase of the Federal Budget Deficit work its way to stabilize the economy for a spell. The timeline for this stimulus to begin to fail and disappoint is apt to be roughly 18 months. Somewhere in the second half of 2010, Obama (in the spirit of Lucy Ricardo)   will have "lots of 'splainin' to do.

Anonymous's picture

Most economist believe recession is over. But it is statistical. Because the housing is down so much, it is not going to subtract GDP numbers anymore.

crzyhun's picture

Still no copy of the video. Until I see it, it aint true. I took a quick search at BBerg and "0"

Fruffing's picture

I thought this post was about the 30Y