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Guest Post: Alcoa And JPM Set The Q3 Lows, Are They Going To Set The Highs In Q4
Submitted by John Bougearel of Structural Logic
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JB, you produce much good work, but this was confusing to say the least. You laid out about 5 different scenarios. Don't take my criticisms to say that I know more than you, it is just my observation that things are so confusing at the moment and the market is at a pivot and your see-sawing analysis confirms that view. Thanks for the work.
You are welcome.
There are two scenarios short term, either a secondary high or new high. If the former, we pullback into next week. If the latter, we set new highs on the year next week, then correct the next.
Whatever path the market chooses will lead to that see-sawing higher into year-end. That is the good news for investors. Which scenario the market chooses near term is for short term swing-traders
Breaking news. Friday 10-09-2009 at 5:45 AM Eastern.
Obama wins the Nobel Peace Prize. What? For his work bringing peace to Iraq and Afghanistan and "his efforts in ridding the world of nuclear weapons"? Are they doing this with a straight face?
This must be part of the pay off.
ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME; WHAT IN THE HOLY FUCKING SHIT KIND OF JOKE IS THE NOBEL COMITY; I AM DISGUSTED !!!!!! AND CHECK OUT THE ARGUMENTS GIVEN http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/politics/barack-obama-wins-the-nobel-peace-prize-2009_100258273.html. ABSOLUTELY AND UTTERLY DISGUSTED.
Hahaha, as he tests the new high tech weapon on the moon (LCROSS). Seeking water? Yeah right! This new technology will send a message to the world about Peace?
I fine day to be Norwegian for sure. Hey, USA... can you feel our tounge all the way up there yet?
well, that nobel matter brought cheeky back out, lol! good to see you again
I don't get it either. The Nobel Peace Prize is a political token.
Personally I think it's a political stunt to keep the US population naval gazing in all our self absorbed glory while the barbarians-at-the-gate steal all the goodies.
The only question is, who are the barbarians?
And somewhere somebody is thinking "Oh Snap. There goes my Iran plan."
Interesting theory. It's not for what he did do,
it's for what he now won't do.
And that, in my opinion, is an example of a 'preemptive strike'.
So let me see if I have this correct. My brother can illegally and immorally beat the shit out of you. But when I announce to the world I won't beat you as well, I win the Nobel Peace Prize.
Notice all I need to do is say the words, not actually back up those words with actions, just give you hope I won't beat you silly.
Is this the ultimate second derivative?
I think we have seen the high of the year...
Stopped short of mentioning WFC reporting the week after (didn't really fit in his loser sandwich quickie), along with MS. WFC has just been outright lying on their headline numbers lately, and MS has had their 'estimate' taken down by at least one major firm per week lately. These two have my curiosity piqued.
someone told me about a WFC loan mod program in PHX where they took homes that were underwater by 50% and gave them new 40yr mortgages that are 2.5% this year and increase 1% each year with a cap of 5.5%.
talk about rolling a ball of crap forward...
Sounds like a game of "delay the fuse." By modifying the loan with a 5 yr fuse, just kicks the can down the road about 5 yrs before they blow up. Same way they did biz with the arm and option arm loans in the first half of the decade.
my friends are up for a 5 yr arm refi. They live in an area that did not participate in the housing boom. They built a new home in 2003-04, took a loan out for 240 for real-estate in a non-inflated real estate hood. They through another 100 k on improving the home and property over the past 5 yrs. Real estate prices have say dropped roughly 10%-15% where I live. The home that they had appraised for 240 in 2004 has been now re-appraised by same bank that did the original at 190 and 171 by a second bank appraiser.
This is how banksters are raising capital these days, by squeezing the shit out of the arms that come due for refi. In this instance, the first banks capital would increase 50k or roughly 20% - do that to every loan on their books and wa-la, their reserve requirements improve greatly over time.
JOHN / Are you aware that, if you are the "real" John Bougearal, penning the reports above -- that you have mistakenly "misspelled" your name in your posts incorrectly (shown as "Bougerel" rather than Bougearel). If so, you may want to spell your name correctly if that is the "real you" for the benefit of the readership.
AR
Thanks, I am aware of the typo I made when I firstsigned up,
I tried to correct it without success first time, perhaps I will try again
JOHN / You do good, thorough, and interesting work. Thanks for sharing your thoughts with everyone on ZH. It is helpful. BTW: We have followed Lindsey's "Three Peaks and Domed House" for years (few are aware of the formation and often, it's significance). We were good friends with Jerry Favors out of Columbus, Ohio. Jerry was a strong proponent of Lindsey (many others also). Anyway, thanks again...
Wonder how this affects the properties of securitization. Would the loan be written off, or is the yield reduced?
You caught that omission. Good for you. I did look it up. Analysts expect them to earn around 35 cents, a bit less than last quarter, and it seemed not worth a comment. I appreciate the insight that they may be outright lying on their numbers, and why wouldn't they of course, legislators condoned that they should do that when they eliminated FV accounting this spring and asked banks to "earn their way towards recapping" by profiting from excessive fees, abuses to borrowers, and most of all by exploiting the free yield curve. "Just git er done" said lawmakers. They don't ask, and they certainly expect the bankster not to tell. Transparency ain't their game, darkness is a banksters greatest ally.
Maybe there will be a mkt inefficiency you can exploit when earnings are announced by WFC and MS.
I was just going on a tangent; realizing that your piece was rightfully focused on the more immediate. But since WFC was mentioned as part of the group, I threw my two cents in. The market hasn't punished them for their reporting so far (and of course neither has the SEC); just a little outrage still simmering here. MS is a surprise to me, as I haven't seen much - if any - press about their estimates being taken down so much so quickly of late. They are obviously trying to leak some info coming in the next report.
if you want to check the veracity of wfc, look at what their cfo said about fasb 157 prior to earnings release and what the 10q said. this has been discussed at some length by some of us. basically, that big blowout Q1 profit was 157 induced.
gilga..i follow ms as well as something doesn't smell right.....found it weird that Mack got out in front of the cameras so soon and sounded like a barney frank shill in terms of regulating the industry.....maybe it means he sees another bailout need? maybe it's because he dialed down the risk, gs upped their risk, we know the outcome already. maybe the japanese want out?
JOHN / Are you aware that, if you are the "real" John Bougearal, penning the reports above -- that you have mistakenly "misspelled" your name in your posts incorrectly (shown as "Bougerel" rather than Bougearel). If so, you may want to spell your name correctly if that is the "real you" for the benefit of the readership.
wfc is my number one pick for largest turd in the toilet
I stopped reading at the word "socialist". This crap has no place on this site.
yep, the word is fascist.
Ghostface,
Your filters are simply marvelous!
Welcome to this site Mr. Bougerel - filters here are actually very thin.
If we do not break and extend, the Elliott wave 5 target of the move extension initiated yesterday morning is 1,075 on the nose, and the target for the move on 10/02 at the lows is 1,073. Given the previous highs are at 1,075.5, barring a break of 1,062 in the next few hours of trading it seems we are due for a retest.
"If
Notice immediately that the conditional clause structure [if...] lacks the complementary “then.”
we
avoid using personal voice in formal writing.
do not break and extend,
The main verbs the matrix clause break and [sic] extend lack a direct object
the Elliott wave
when referring to proper complex nouns both particulars must be capitalised.
5 target of the move extension
objective genitive ‘[move extension] requires hyphenation
initiated yesterday morning is 1,075 on the nose,
in ref. to [on the nose]: avoid colloquialisms.
and the target for the move
word choice: unclear language
on 10/02
never write dates as such; rather, 2 October is preferred.
at the lows
[lows] is impossible. change to [low]
is 1,073. Given the previous highs
again, [highs] is meaningless. change to [high]
are
if something is [previous] then the correct verb tense ought to be past, specifically the perfect. thus change [are] to [were]; but whereas the above dependent clause retains a singular subject, the verb ultimately should be [was].
at 1,075.5, barring
The english language does not allow for multiple ablative absolutes; that is [given. . .1,075.5] must refer to another dependent clause that begins with a relative noun.
a break of
a break from what? lunch? be specific.
1,062 in
certainly you mean within, and not [in]?
the next few hours of trading
insert comma
it
what does this [it] refer to? avoid dummy pronouns in general.
seems we are due for a retest.
[retest] what? BE SPECIFIC.
"
All right now, for all you boppers out there in the big city, all you street people with an ear for the action . . . a note on S&P 500 Sales per Share estimate for Q3: It's $229.43, which is down -14.39% from Q3 '08. Total 12 month change in sales is down $1,521,840,000,000. That's right, $1.52 trillion. As Howard Silverblatt points out, that's almost as much as the $787B stimulus and the proposed $829B health care plan combined. Regardless, eyes are cast upon QoQ earnings and revenue improvement, which will be made in many cases upon the back of labor cost reductions, tax code allowances, etcetera.
That's tonight's special for the Warriors, that real live bunch from Coney, and I do mean the Warriors.
When is the world going to figure out that stocks that pay no dividends have no value? There is no such thing as long term value out of earnings if the dividends aren't paid. AA is paying 12 cents. Growth industry, right? Autos are selling at 9 million annual pace. Layoffs are higher than any time in 2008 save December and every week the prior week is marked up. Do you recall what auto sales were in 2002/2003? 15 million or more. There was an industry to operate, but 15 million is barely profitable. There isn't a 2 million annual construction pace for housing and the financial system that isn't bad is only not bad because they haven't been required to show their hole card. Who would want to own GS when the real earnings are being looted by management and the holders of the stock are merely waiting for the next financial disaster. You really don't believe a 30 to 70 year mistake was cleared up in a year do you?
Honestly, this deserves to be the subject of a post. TD, if you are reading this, any analysis of cash earnings or dividends paid over time would be enteresting indeed.
Few Charts may betray the chartists
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LLRNPT?cid=93
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USLLRTL?cid=93
But not the banks so called profits?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpheXxu9vM0&feature=player_embedded
farcical indeed.
unfuckingbelievable.
and we don't even have an ideological bias against the guy.
wonder how many direct commands that our new peace prize winner aka commander in chief gave that led to deaths of others?
war = peace
left = right
right = wrong
up = down
anyone thinking from here on in that any proper (i.e. 'right') decisions will ever be made by those at the top is seriously deluding themselves.
there is no purpose in fighting against it anymore. just sit back, get some popcorn and enjoy the ride down, errr, up.
The bottom in natural gas, the bottom in oil, the top in bonds, and the 666 bottom in stocks were all captured here.
http://aaronandmoses.blogspot.com/2009/10/natural-gas.html
Probably a different viewpoint than most here, but it at least makes you money.
TD / We expect BAC's earnings this coming Friday (10/16) to be "soft" and on the light side. Food for thought... Good luck.
i look forward to your comments AR.....pls continue posting.
Thank you.
Obama winning the peace prize!! WTF...seriously the man is just getting ready to send more troops to Afghanistan, and we are still in Iraq after like 600000 kids have been killed since the invasion.
Under his leadership we have the bankers loot the taxpayer. No reform on Wall St, GM bondholders take it up their ass and still GM will not be selling any cars.
But hell..the peace prize is merited. I guess there is no justice in this world, i think the man should be ashamed to receive it.
and he declined to meet with Dalai Lama on orders from Chinese owners! Real Hero!