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Guest Post: Another Perfect Storm Is Brewing

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Bo Peng (as of last night)

Another Perfect Storm Is Brewing

A few major factors/events have conspired recently to meet up at a singular point in time.

1. Either QE2 disappointment or death of USD

It's been a textbook case of "bad news is good news" in the past few
weeks, entirely driven by QE2 expectations. The expectations are so high
that inflation is finally being priced in (see 30-yr bonds,
commodities, and gold), and Bernanke would have to do it even if he had a
change of religion tonight, or else. The only question is when and how
much. While I don't know the answer, I'm sure it lies somewhere between a
dog and a fire hydrant. If QE2 is not big enough to cause another 10%
drop in the dollar index, it'll snap back 10% along with
equities/gold/commodities crashing through a significant correction. If
it is big enough to meet the markets' insane expectations, it will most
likely kick the currency war into full speed and start the sequence that
leads to the dollar's death as the international reserve currency.

Of course, theoretically it's possible to stand a pencil on its point. I just don't think it's financially wise to bet on it.

Funny thing is, despite the overwhelming cry for QE2 and the markets'
seeming enthusiasm, few expect it to produce meaningful real growth. In
other words, the Sept rally in equities has been driven by depreciating
dollar and expectation of inflation, not necessarily growth. This is
truly a nightmare scenario.

2. Currency war

In the
race to the bottom of competitive currency devaluation, Japan has been
elbowed to the back and Fed has been the hands-down winner, so far. But
all major players are close to the edge, even the usually quiet and
conformal (well in terms of economic/monetary policy) Brazil. QE2, even
if not big enough to kill the dollar by itself, may be the brilliant
spark of inspiration in the powder keg. The ensuing currency war, trade
war, and all kinds of political circus will surely be comical, to future
generations who don't have to live through it.

3. Foreclosuregate

Mainstream media have taken the foreclousregate with remarkable calm,
I'm just not sure whether it's due to ignorance or willful deceit. But
there've been many excellent analyses in the blogosphere. I have nothing
original to add on this topic, instead would just summarize my readings
here:

  • Foreclosure sales, which has accounted for 1/3
    of housing market in recent months, have slowed to a crawl and may come
    to a complete stop soon.
  • Virtually every mortgage in
    existence today is subject to the question of title ownership. It
    doesn't even matter how thorough a job the original lender did. If it
    has gone through the mills of securitization, which the homeowner would
    not know and it would take substantial effort to clarify, the question
    is there for someone to ask.
  • Recent sales of foreclosed as
    well as regular houses are suddenly subject to unknown kinds of legal
    risk. Future buyers should be extremely cautious.
  • Not only
    past and future sales of houses and commercial real estates, but all
    past and future sales of baskets of securitized real estates may be in
    legal limbo. This is independent of sloppy/missing/forged paperwork.
    There may be a valid legal question of ownership in set-ups like
    mortgage CDOs.

What will happen next? How paralyzed will
the real estate market be? For how long? Should everybody stop paying
mortgages? Will everybody get a free house? Will banks be destroyed, for
real, this time? Will Fanny Mae (and by extension tax payers) be the
designated bag-holder again? How much will all these affect the dollar?
How much ammo/water/canned-food to stock up? Will RPGs be considered
excessive force? Nobody knows. Well, at least lawyers in various related
fields won't need to worry about jobs for the next five generations.

Why a rational being would long equities, especially financials, at
this juncture is beyond my limited imagination. Even gold is vulnerable
to a correction should QE2 be judged a disappointment by the market. I
remain very bullish on gold longer term. But I've taken profit on most
of my GLD calls recently.

This (Friday) morning's Bernanke
speech should be interesting. He has a hell of a fine line to toe in
rhetoric and expectation management, or else he may make history today.
We'll find out soon enough.

But isn't there something wrong
about the system when one person should have such a huge impact on the
market? Prior examples of such overwhelming prominance include Hitler,
Mao, and Greenspan.

 

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Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:01 | 652737 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Bernanke knows he can talk the talk about killing the Dollar. But i believe if the Dollar ever goes below 70, Even Bernanke knows he will be in uncharted territory. JMHO

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:09 | 652764 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

The way I look at it QE1 was relatively successful in keeping the stock market inflated and BB was able to keep his p.... in the center of the bowl. With QE2 it looks like he may have a real hard time not spilling out of the bowl !!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:40 | 653136 caconhma
caconhma's picture

The core author premises regarding to  "the markets' expectations" do not hold water. Overall US major "open" market operations are controlled and/or manipulated by the FED and their close associates.

 

As for the FED itself, they are in a state of panic and desperation. They know very well that they about to lose any marginal control they still have over the US economy. from there on, it will be a free-fall.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:03 | 652740 bada boom
bada boom's picture

Perfect Storm Eh?  In the movie didn't they have the captain courageously steering his ship directly into the wave to try to save it?

In our reality, our captains / leaders are sleeping in their bunks or drunk off their asses. Who knows, maybe it was the same on the Andrea Gail.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:27 | 652826 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

It will still have the same ending.  Epic failure and death.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:39 | 652872 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

honest, i think i remember an op-ed article between 99-2000. he predictioned with almost absolute certainty because of the recent .com bubble, we were heading directly into the mouth of a financial perfect storm.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:11 | 653637 Minion
Minion's picture

Prechter has not changed his view: go short with MAXIMUM LEVERAGE.  Financials are leading the charge.....

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:02 | 652746 Raymond K Hassel
Raymond K Hassel's picture

the water part is easy - 39,000 gallons for around $189 (I bought a few backup filters as well)

http://www.trailspace.com/gear/katadyn/drip-gravidyn/

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:02 | 652748 uberfinch
uberfinch's picture

I'm so sick of this bullshit about "one person directing the market" being new or scary like mao or fucking hitler. How about JP Morgan 100 years ago? Read a history of the Teddy Roosevelt years and get back to us when you have caught up on your history. There has NEVER been a market that wasn't manipulated by a handful of powerful people. But it is NOT communism of national socialism. Stop denigrating the lives lost in those horrible regimes with a false comparison.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:12 | 652777 Jake3463
Jake3463's picture

The only reason we aren't viewed as that horrible regime and are speaking English is we won the war.

I remind you a year after winning that war, we just admitted we went down to Guatemela and injected locals with venereal disease "to see what would happen"

Comparisons are apt.  I have I guess what you would call ancestors who were killed by Pinkertons in strikes in the mine country of PA during that golden age you speak of.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:52 | 652931 Bearster
Bearster's picture

Yup, we are exactly morally equivalent to the National Socialists and the International Socialists.

We have systematically set about a program of murdering tens or hundreds of millions...

...wait a minute, no we haven't.

The only reason why no one thinks that we are the same as the NAZIs is that we are not the same.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:18 | 653525 thefedisscam
thefedisscam's picture

+1, very well said

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:13 | 652783 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

well...wall street also has it's casualties. throughout the third world wall street has used its paramilitary force, the cia to destablize legitimate democratically elected governments simply to support their interests, sometimes starting civil wars that killed millions, not to mention the current war on terror fiasco where our boys are flying killing machines over other people's lands on a daily basis killing children and families....maybe not hitler, but bad nonetheless...

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:17 | 653520 thefedisscam
thefedisscam's picture

Yep, very well said! +1000

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:50 | 652922 Bearster
Bearster's picture

The difference between JP Morgan 100 years ago and Bernanke today, is that Bernanke has the force of government behind him.

No matter how often people confuse voluntary interaction in the free market with government coercion, they are not the same--they are exact opposites.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:53 | 653198 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

+10 Absolutely correct. I am tired the argument that says "America has always been 100% evil"  Moral relativism spewed across history. Marxist love this line of thought becuause no matter what crimes they commit it is no worse then those evil capitalist.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:41 | 653142 tmosley
tmosley's picture

JP Morgan was powerful, but he certainly didn't control the markets.  What control he might have had over the markets was 100% based on his CONTRIBUTIONS to society, not based off of a gun pointed to the heads of its citizens and/or a hand in their wallets.

I really hate idiots who can't tell the difference between freedom and slavery.  They are the ones who consent to the chains that bind us all.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 22:52 | 654791 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Check this out:

http://www.republicoftheunitedstates.org/node/5

If it's true, it goes a long way towards explaining what's really going on.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:05 | 652753 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Storm is already brewed. We just happen to be in the eye. 

I swear, here, in the homeland (India), I look around and you would swear that everything is hunky dory with the world. Long-term plans....bloated real estate investments, more buildings, every day....

It's a little mad making sometimes. 

When they change QEII to Titanic QE, then, man the life-boats.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:36 | 652855 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I saw this "home" yesterday on Drudge, and my first thought was "WTF"? 

http://inhabitat.com/2010/10/14/worlds-largest-and-most-expensive-family...

This might be article worthy for Zerohedge?  Tyler, anyone??

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:00 | 652969 snowball777
snowball777's picture

2 base charges from collecting on their insurance.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:10 | 653495 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Modern day Ziggurat, brazen and unabashed manifestation of insecurity. 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:16 | 653514 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I know, pretty crazy eh? That is India for sure and maybe the world in a nutshell.

Crime pays is the message flashing everywhere.

...

ORI

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:11 | 652916 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Don't worry Durga is working all of this shit out.Good guys win bad guys lose , unfortunately there are a lot more bad people who refuse to change .

As for the article, Bernanke is in a lose/ lose situation with forclosuregate . The printer just isn't big enough and if it were long before Bernanke printed off that money all paper assets would become worthless . If QE2 happens or not the game is over for paper currencies . The world gov'ts around the world should be in meetings looking for a new commodity backed currency before this shit goes down and people get hurt . Irresponsible fucks .

B2A5DE8E-17C4-29EB-4B06-4C8A89D4ED7D 1.02.28
Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:32 | 653706 still kicking
still kicking's picture

What part of India are you in?  I spent 6 months in Hyderabad in 2005, when I got there they had 3 international hotel chains a subway restaurant as the only American chain restaurant, the place is completely unrecognizable now.

Sun, 10/17/2010 - 13:05 | 656690 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Bangalore, though I'm currently on a project in Hyderabad. What were you doing there? SOftware?

It's all the same now and getting samer every day.

Too bad eh?

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:05 | 652754 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Not only do we not know how to value a given asset, we don't even know who owns the given asset. 

 

7 Ps

Prior Proper Planing Prevents Piss Poor Performance

 

3 Gs

Gold, Guns and God

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:14 | 652785 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Why not gods?  I believe in Zues, Thor, and Zoroaster, but I'm open to suggestions.  Oops, it's the weekend, and I almost forgot Bacchus;)

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:17 | 652798 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

God, in this sense, refers more to man being alone against the elements and reflects the need for self reliance.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:01 | 652974 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Then use Gumption.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:03 | 652979 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

To each his own.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:07 | 653260 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

Or DOG..  Always good to have a buddy when traveling down the unknown path..

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:15 | 653509 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

How about egotistic hedonism and Epicureanism with uncertain agnostic elements? 

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:16 | 653034 Pope Clement
Pope Clement's picture

I'd gladly trade the last G (God) for Groceries, seems that the history of God from all over the planet (Brahma, EL the Heavenly Father of Yeshua, Yahweh, Ra, Kronos, Kulkulkan, Quetzalcoatl, Saturnus, Emperor Yao and countless others all refer back to the brown Dwarf/Planet Saturn. Plenty of info out there on the history of same so unless you're really into astrology go for the groceries.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:42 | 653738 Minion
Minion's picture

There was only one instance where Jesus used violence: when he drove the money changers out of the temple.  He also stated "let him sell his garment and buy a sword" to the apostles, right before being betrayed, but He rebuked one who used it to cut off the ear of an attacker.  From these clues, it seems owning weapons for deterrence - to protect peace - is the idea.  And to kick the banksters to the curb......

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:06 | 652756 goldfreak
Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:31 | 652842 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Quite telling indeed...corruption is now merely accepted as part of the investment landscape.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:19 | 652804 Bob
Bob's picture

This would be an interesting thing to keep stats on. 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:08 | 652760 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture
Posted by Ichabod on 10/15/2010 4:42:51 AM

I just heard a guest on CNBCW say QE is not a market force. This must be a signal from outer space. Why the talk of currency war if QE is no economic force? It's a race to the bottom for the world's currencies and thank goodness China has enough backbone to prevent capitulation to the Bernanke bond bubble.

Cudos to the Bell for including silver in the debate. It's the man on the street's money...the poor man's gold as we often hear it called. Back to OZ, the yellow brick road and the original silver slippers to protect Dorothy and friends while they journeyed to see the wizard.

Disney thought glistening red in the stunning new technicolor would make a greater impact so our minds are no longer in tune with silver as a protection against gold as the bankers wealth. Does the BIS meet weekly on silver? We need McKinley and the silver orator of the platt arm in arm.

Keynes is dead but he's been reincarnated and is continuing his economic theory in Helicoper Ben's body. His theory has entered a herd of pigs, they're heading for the cliff, and nothing can stop them from hurdling themselves headlong over the precipice. Splatt! Good riddance.

This comment ripped from The Daily Bell.http://www.thedailybell.com/1448/The-Currency-War-Promotion.html

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:11 | 652792 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Keynes is dead but he's been reincarnated and is continuing his economic theory in Helicopter Ben's body.

Not quite. It seems the masters of the universe, using a technique as old as civilization itself, have hijacked those portions of the Keynes thought process that fits their methods while rejecting the rest. Selective Keynes is a better description of what's going on. Or maybe "The Best of Keynes" if you listen to the sociopaths.

You know, massaging the message to fit the outcome they've already pre-engineered. "Cherry picking" to use a term that's insulting to cherries (virginal or otherwise) everywhere.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:09 | 652762 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But isn't there something wrong about the system when one person should have such a huge impact on the market? Prior examples of such overwhelming prominence include Hitler, Mao, and Greenspan.

Don't blame the system, blame the humans who make/made/control/run/are run by the system. I often see the markets as the sum total of the collective (un)conciousness at any one moment. After all, the markets, money, the culture itself are simple reflections of the conciousness that creates it.

So if we are seeing instability, dangerous trends or even (shhh) insanity, what is that saying about you and I?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:23 | 652817 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

The lizard brain is starting to get restless. Respect the lizard, but we must not pander to it ....

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:16 | 653833 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You are SO right, CD.   It wasn't the gold standard that was faulty, it was the bastardization of it by PEOPLE which caused the lack of confidence in its execution (bad choice of words).

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:09 | 652763 BobWatNorCal
BobWatNorCal's picture

OK, one question. If you are so smart, why would you be into GLD? :)

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:11 | 652773 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

For leverage in the options market.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:16 | 653838 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You are thus a Ponzi-puppet.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:10 | 652768 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Hitler, Mao, Greenspan, Bernanke.  There's a difference?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:35 | 653114 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Beard.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:46 | 653385 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Fur?

Fur balls?

Catnip?

I'm trying here, give me a hint.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:10 | 652769 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

did anyone read the latest from Karl Denninger ?   I thought it was good & it speaks to my fears of starving to death, because after paying off a house & raising kids & can't find work over $8/hour, well, people I certainly am not sitting on a stockpile of cash & gold ~~ here is the KARL DENNINGER quote today :  

  "  In a very real sense, Bernanke is throwing Granny and Grandpa down the stairs - on purpose.  He is literally threatening those at the lower end of the economic strata, along with all who are retired, with starvation and death, and in a just nation where the rule of law controlled instead of being abused by the kleptocrats he would be facing charges of Seditious Conspiracy, as his policies will inevitably lead to the destruction of our republic.  " 

& I really thought I'd have a decent older life after being a Mom & now a Grandma !  LOL ~~ LOOKS LIKE THE LAUGH IS ON ME & ALL THE REST OF US WHO PLAYED BY THE RULES !   LOL

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:12 | 652779 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Rules?  Sorry, lynnybee.  There are no rules pertaining to the kleptocrats.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:23 | 652814 jmac2013
jmac2013's picture

Right, the only rule that applies is the Golden Rule- he who has all the gold makes the rules.  Except in this case it's not the yellow shiny gold, it's the green papery gold.

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:13 | 652784 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Have you considered moving back in with your children?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:18 | 652802 kalum
kalum's picture

Surely, a fate worse than death? Thanks Mr Bernanke

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:22 | 652811 Bob
Bob's picture

A tough call, to be sure.  Euthanasia, anyone?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:27 | 652827 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

I've planned my entire life to have a second master suit in my house for my parents once I have children.

 

Free child care

Extra Income

Free Chauffeur (for the kids)

Family Ties

Etc..

 

Why do we remove the elderly from society once they retire? They should be actively engaged, there is nothing more depressing to me than a retirement community.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:43 | 652895 kkam
kkam's picture

+1000. At least somebody is bold enough to use common sense and question the established ways. Traditional society, before the takeover by money lived in this way. And I'd hazard a guess they lived poorer, but happier.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:52 | 652927 JR
JR's picture

How many suites do you have in your house?  When you’re in your middle age, if you have children and grandchildren and great-grandchildren, they may all need a spot after Bernanke gets through.

Have you heard of the boomerangers?  Because of nearly 15% high unemployment for those ages 20-24, “85% of college seniors planned to move back home with their parents after graduation last May…That rate has steadily risen from 67% in 2006.”

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/14/pf/boomerang_kids_move_home/index.htm

I see one of the skills you’ve picked up in your education is how to type. Now, after reading your comment to lynnybee, I suggest you work on understanding more about justice, hard work, virtue and dignity.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:56 | 652939 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

I was just coming from a common sense point of view, pool your resources and cut expenses.  Plus I love and get along with my parents, and I hope my future children know their grandparents more than just the holiday visits.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:30 | 653701 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

They'll be lucky.  Both of my parents and one of my husband's are deceased.  My kids are missing out.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:06 | 652996 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

You are the smart one, smarter than me.   I was under a false allusion that we were supposed to pull away from our children, let them go be on their own, each have our own households & not interfere ........ well, I guess that was wrong thinking, too !

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:11 | 653011 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

This is not a criticism, seriously to each his own.  I am only proposing options, when you have no one left to trust (gov't, law, justice) there is always family.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:43 | 653155 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

It was in the interest of a lot of industries for you to think that. They could sell twice as many homes, cars, kitchen appliances, vacations, more travel miles, meals out -- just about everything.

That's also the reason they got women into the workplace; they need all the same gear as the men do once they leave the house for the day. Maybe more -- suddenly they need childcare.

The last 50 years have been a massive, ongoing con job. Women have been totally ripped off and won't realize it for another generation, maybe two.

It's going to take a long time to reverse all this damage. The process probably starts in earnest in about 9 months. Under no circumstance should anyone who was pulled in by the con feel at all bad for what happened. It was perhaps the most highly coordinated, deliberate act of propaganda and misdirection ever witnessed in human history.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:18 | 653298 JR
JR's picture

I am definitely not a fan of Robert Reich and disagree with almost everything he says.  But in a speech in our area recently, he addressed the women-in-the-workforce movement in a dramatic way.  He said employers were holding down wage rates for men while economic conditions put incredible pressure on family budgets.  The result, women entered the market place in incredible numbers just to hold the family’s standard of living together. Even women with young children found it necessary to take jobs to maintain the family budget.

But lynnybee’s point goes to the heart of America’s current dilemma. We are fighting collectivism, fascist socialism, and the destruction of the contract society. In an increasing avalanche of broken promises, politicians and their banker masters have lied their way to redistribution of wealth from producers to political favorites and constituents—putting America on a road to Serfdom that leads to Rockefeller’s global plantation of master and slave, dispossessing U.S. citizens of their Constitutional freedoms in a silent, undeclared war.

Free enterprise, individual pursuit of excellence and individual freedom are to be sacrificed in collectivism. 

Wrote Elisabeth L. Tamedly: “Since the profit motive is founded on considerations of individual as distinct from collective welfare, it is, in the opinion of socialists, totally unsuitable as a means of regulating the economy.” (from Socialism and International Economic Order, p.1)

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:20 | 653530 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Very easy solution. All of us stay out of the market. That will teach them.

Actually, most of us our out. But there are addicts and gamblers still trying.  

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:59 | 653783 Maos Dog
Maos Dog's picture

That's also the reason they got women into the workplace; they need all the same gear as the men do once they leave the house for the day. Maybe more -- suddenly they need childcare.

I always thought this was a government scam to double that taxable wages base, not a corporate scam to sell double the stuff, maybe it was both.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:20 | 653307 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

Lynn I feel like I know you. I was brought up with grandma just part of our family. she influenced me so much plus I got her legs. my mother never treated her with any disrespect ever. grandma knew her place in the family structure. it was beautiful. also she quilted beautiful bedcovers. that's how I got my love of craft and art. cause I left home and wanted to become a potter and aweaver and art teacher my whole life. grandma lived to be 100 or close to that. Della what a lovely human being you were. cause I lost my husband his parents virtually raised my daughter so I could race my bike and other sports. unconditional love the finishest.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:20 | 653305 WaltzTangoFoxtrot
WaltzTangoFoxtrot's picture

We keep our elderly parents out of the roost because now (since 1930's) there is a public safely net to provide for them in old age which changed the way offspring dealt with the parents.  It gained momentum after WWII, but prior to that families were nuclear in structure.   It was only after Social Security freed the elderly to live on their own has the destruction of the multi-generational family taken place.  Well, that and the greatest expansion of societal wealth the world has ever seen from 1939 to 2000! Prior to then, the oldest male got the estate and the burden of caring for the parents until death.  That was the social contract of the day.  No longer.  And having the parents live with one is now a sign of either failure or extreme wealth.  "Remote care" for the elderly who live on their own is the middle class norm.  How many of you have stressed friends dealing with issues of aging parents who live hundreds of miles away?  

WTF

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:36 | 652866 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

"have you ever considered moving back in with your children ?"   ....... my kids are struggling as much as I will be soon !  they are barely making it.    I was the one who had the middle class lifestyle.   There are no jobs here in DAYTON, OHIO.    My kids are in that huge group of young adults who were enticed with predatory lending practices to take out student loans so they could go to school & get a better job when they graduated !!!  LOL !  ......... now they can't even find $8/hour jobs.     You see, in my day, way back when, NO BANK WOULD EVEN DREAM OF GIVING LOANS IN SUCH EXHORBITANT AMOUNTS TO KIDS WHO ARE ONLY 21 YEARS OLD !       This is going to ruin the natural progression in society from young adults to elderly ~~ looks like everyone loses something & I guess I'd just better start getting used to it !

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:51 | 652884 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

There are always opportunities in the oil patch.  Are your kids in decent physical shape?  Working as a roughneck can earn you over a $100,000 a year (limited time off, 12.5hr days), even more if they're willing to go offshore. 

Hell if they have a degree they could probably become a Mud-Engineer or a Well Logger and make even more.  As an added bonus their Cajun and Creole vocabulary will sky-rocket. :)

 

Sorry about your situation.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:57 | 652944 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

this whole time i didn't know you lived in

D A Y  T O N,    o HI o

wow you should look up my brother edward he really cares about people, tell him kath sent you. i got a cousin named lynn, nothing is a coincident.

got to run and get my hi-lights. check back later to see how U Bee.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:17 | 653293 kayl
kayl's picture

I know what you are going through. My college age children have gotten into the same situation. However, the problem is not the loans. The problem revolves around the proper understanding of a debt-based monetary system and the Uniform Commercial Code.

The banks or schools didn't lend your children any money. They accessed your child's exemption (credit) account at the US Treasury and brought your child's credit into the bank or school. Then, they withheld the credit and moved on to have your child sign a promissory note to pay for the credit plus interest. The credit belongs to the child. He is the originator and the principal. However, without filing a UCC 1 Financing Statement, your child remains a DEBTOR in a diminished status. By filling a UCC 1 form, your child claims himself as the CREDITOR with a secured party interest in the property, bank accounts, liens, and debts of himself, the DEBTOR. This procedure is called capturing the STRAWMAN. Once you do this procedure and learn everything about the debt-based monetary system and the Uniform Commercial Code, your child is fit to manage its commercial affairs.

When an individual is born, the birth certificate is sold by the US government to the IMF bank. The IMF bank gives the US Treasury an amount of credit for the future production of the child's lifetime. We the people are the surety, the chattel, that supports the debt-based monetary system in the US. Under the Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) posted at the Cornell Law University website, we are turned into "Transmitting Utilities." We can create debt-based money with our signature. See UCC Article 3. 

As long as your child never sends any green money to the lender, you have not contracted with the lender to be a tax collector on the account. When the lender requires repayment of the loan, you must discharge your debt.

Discharging debt is done by sending three pieces of paper: the claim or presentment, the payment bond, and the performance bond. Article 3 clearly states that a debt can be discharged equally with debt-notes (green money) or a transfer instrument in the form of an international money order that you write out yourself.

Get it: there is no money, and there is no debt. There is only fake money, and discharge of debt. So when a claim for payment comes, you discharge debt by writing out a piece of paper.

Please understand that the PTB has created an entire new vocabulary to block the average individual's understanding of the monetary system and the UCC. For example, a person is a corporate fiction. For us, a person is just some guy. You need to refer to a Black's Law Dictionary 4 or 5 edition to understand the real basis of contract law and commercial affairs in this country.

Your children must learn to discharge debt properly, and they won't owe any money.

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:38 | 653370 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

I reread your posts because your message is powerful. I can't visual the complete picture your painting with the UCC. I stop with discharge the debt property. I don't have any debt but daughter does. she said she borrowed against her 401k for mortgage.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:25 | 653839 kayl
kayl's picture

Go read Article 3 of the Uniform Commercial Code at the Cornell Law University website. Arm yourself with a Black's Law dictionary. Work through the sections. Read about the transmitting utility. We the people are the transmitting utilities. We create debt-based money with our signature.

Discharge of debt is a procedure of sending 3 pieces of paper back to the lender. You must notify the Treasury first that you are setting up a non-cash discharge of debt transaction.

You need to send the presentment, the payment bond, and the surety or promise to pay to the Treasury and the bank that requires payment.

The presentment is a claim, a statement of account that says a total of what you owe. You must write on the presentment in a blank spot, "Accepted for Value and Returned for Discharge, Settlement, and Closure of the Account."

The payment bond is an international money order. It is a three-party check with You, Timothy Geithner, the Secretary of the Treasure, and the bank requesting payment. You must write the names and addresses of all 3 parties on the front of the money order. You write "Pay to the Order of" with the BANK's name, followed by the amount in numbers and the amount written out in letters. You sign the money order. You can write, Agent after your name. If you are diligent in reading Article 3 of the UCC, you will read the laws concerning agency in a signature.

The surety is the promise to pay. You can fill out a 1040V voucher form with the social security number. It is a promise to pay and also instructs the Treasury to process a non-cash discharge of debt through your exemption (credit) account at the Treasury.

Then, download the form Standard Form SF5510 Authorization Agreement for Pre-Authorized Payments. Fill out the top with an ALL CAPS name, since you are the principal. Make sure to fill out Non-cash discharge of debt in the transaction type. Fill out the bottom with the bank's name. You don't need the account where the discharge is to go to. The bank will never send you back that information. But it doesn't matter.

Make copies of all the forms. You must send the original presentment marked with Accepted for Value and returned on it...to the US Treasury. You must present a valid claim for the discharge. And send the money order, the 1040V, and the SF5510 form. You must inform Treasury first that you are senting up a non-cash discharge transaction with the bank.

Then, send all the forms to the bank. Be a good citizen and always discharge your debt. The UCC says we must Accept any claim for value and return for discharge, settlement, and closure.

The bank is not likely to respond. However, under the UCC dishonor of the discharge of debt is a de facto discharge. The bank is violating the laws of the currency by not accepting discharge. Keep copies of your correspondence and discharge the debt at least three times. The papers can be used as evidence the debt has been discharge in court.

Now you have a description of the procedure and the pieces of paper needed. I suggest you read about the debt-based monetary system by reading Modern Money Mechanics posted at the Federal Reserve. Also study the UCC posted at the Cornell Law University website. Learn about the Common Law and the proper form of an Affidavit. They are a fact of truth in a court of law. Your discharge letter should be written in the form of an Affidavit.

Whether you recognize it or not, every letter you receive from a bank or creditor is an Affidavit! Make sure to file the UCC 1 form first, so that you are qualified to manage your financial affairs.

There is one more issue. If your daughter has been paying some part of the 401k loan with her money (green notes), she has contracted with the lender to become her tax collector. Failure to continue to pay in green notes makes her become a tax evader in her own contract.

The concept of money is no longer like gold and silver 300 years ago.

In the debt-based monetary system, any green money that you pay to people is essentially a 100% tax on your income. Since all your life productivity (your assets) was taken away from you with the birth certificate, any bill paid with money is a tax.

You must break the tax obligation by sending a letter of complaint to the lender and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The bank or lender for the loan on the 401k plan did not lend the bank's money or credit. The bank accessed YOUR daughter's credit that she already owns. The bank took her credit and withheld it. Then, they had her sign a promissory note to promise to pay back her own credit plus interest to the bank. The bank set up the 401k as the collateral for the loan. The whole loan was a fraud. You must break the tax obligation by writing an Affidavit which is a letter of complaint to the bank and the OCC.

It must be stated the daughter thought she was borrowing the bank's money or credit. The bank has no consideration in the contract.

The bank withheld your daughter's credit. They lead her into a promissory note.

After 3 years, the bank can file an abandonment form saying your daughter abandoned her credit at the bank without your daughter's knowledge or consent. The bank took her credit and leveraged it up by the miracle of fractional reserve banking.

The bank also failed to file the 1099OID form which reports the tax they owe to the Feds and IRS for creating new money in the monetary system. So the banks are also tax evaders.

Send this letter of complaint to the bank and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. You break the tax obligation, because there is no contract when a fraud is committed. If the bank contacts your daughter about the loan, she should tell them she won't pay any more green money. But she will discharge all debt under Article 3 of the Uniform Commercial Code.

If the bank doesn't respond, send the bank a new contract, stating that the bank doesn't handle her commercial affairs. The contract is revoked for cause, the failure to disclose the material terms and conditions of the loan. She must explain that she will discharge all debts and needs a final payment statement for the total. Then, just discharge the debt as described.

BTW, I answered your post in detail in the Gonzola Lira article as well. The sooner people understand the debt-based monetary system and begin to manage their own commercial affairs under the UCC, the faster we get out of the economic crisis.

We need to set up a Discharge of Debt mill similar to the mortgage loan mills and the foreclosure mills to clear things up.

Note: As a criticism of this essay, I've flipped the subject several times. Please read as a universal you or all your daughter.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:43 | 654408 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

well thank you kindly dear kayl. never knew. does every one know about this? boy oh boy. i will have to print out your thorough explanation. little over my head concept about what really really is happening. damn got some reading and work to do. can you imagine my daughter is three times as clueless as me and will accuse me of trying to hurt her financially and won't let me do a damn thing as such you describe. she will have probably cause to commit me to an insane asylum if i try anything like you describe in detail above. no shit, she thinks i gone off the deep end already let alone when i try to tell her not to want to pay off her mortgage and get in charge of her 401 K not the gov. well i will go over to gonzo's article and read. have a good evening and thanks again for your generous knowledge.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 21:51 | 654680 kayl
kayl's picture

kathy,

This is not common knowledge. There's been an asymmetrical war waged in our media for 77 years, wherein the rights of the creditors have been discussed and explained. The silence is deafening in regard to the parts of the UCC that explain the rights of the debtor to repudiate fraudulent contracts and discharge debt when a valid claim is presented.

Get your daughter over to the Cornell Law University UCC website. This is the law.

Just as a little story-- I was down in Costa Rica in a hostel. A young man living there just graduated from Texas U with a degree in Corporate Finance. He knew everything about the debt-based monetary system and fractional banking. He also knew everything about the Uniform Commercial Code. He was about 24 years old. He said he wanted to get his MBA, and a law degree. After that he would be doing the two Ts. I looked at him quizzically. The two Ts, you know, Tuesdays and Thursdays in the office and golf on the other days.

There are two layers of people in the world: people who know what is happening and people who don't. It's time we got on the right side of the law.

I'm working on a three-part article to formalize all the concepts. Maybe we can turn around this asymmetrical warfare in our favor.

Sun, 10/17/2010 - 17:12 | 657060 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

you must be a pretty special person kayl, to take your time with this and try and explain. but i can't hardly visual this concept. my daughter has no desire to get on the cornell law university website. i don't know how she got a degree from wasted oh i mean western state university. she isn't academic. hardly knows what a mortgage is. i set her on to E-trade to get her to sell the stocks i gave her years and years ago. she said she doesn't know how to push the sell button. we appreciate your knowledge but we probably aren't the ideal candidates to pick this information up very easily and learn. i been thinking about it, but not that much. little heavy cause i am suing 4 business men over real estate contract with 8 counts of different frauds. my attorney says we have a very strong case. i am going to ask him if he knows about this, will be quite telling i believe. thanks again,

beautiful weekend.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 23:02 | 654806 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Check out:

http://www.nmcservices.net/

See if it makes any sense to you.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:23 | 653848 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Have you considered moving back in with your children?

So, Mr. Munger, she should just suck it up and lower her standards? ;-)

Just funnin' ya.   Look at the discussion you stirred up!  We need more of that.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:39 | 653921 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

I meant absolutely no disrespect by it, I just believe we have to get creative and be prepared for when opportunities present themselves so we can act.  Excepting the reality of the situation is step one: We allowed ourselves to be generationally defrauded and became addicted to the illusion.  Now what are you going to do about it?  Please look to yourself to solve your problems and in doing so you might solve society's.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:36 | 652862 JR
JR's picture

lynnybee, if we can get rid of the money changers, it’s likely to be the end of their power forever, because the rest of the world doesn’t want them.

“Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” – Napoleon Bonaparte

And lynnybee, we can get rid of them.  And it’s very obvious Ben’s going for the election to do everything he can to keep the market from tanking because the financiers are so worried about losing some of their key committee chairmen.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:10 | 652771 kalum
kalum's picture

Just  where are you parking your money, pray tell?

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:40 | 653374 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

a safe .......,..............
parking place

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:17 | 652797 melachiro
melachiro's picture

Speaking of perfect storm, how about a post on the strikes and other mayhem in Europe? 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:20 | 652808 JR
JR's picture

Congress, bought and paid for by the bankers in a corrupted "two-party" system, stands as a protective barrier to protect the money changers in the Federal Reserve System from the will of the people whom they both exploit.

“Money, beginning with private enterprise as a means of escaping the limitation of barter, soon developed the cheat to exploit the honest trader who, in an effort to protect himself, turned to government for protection, only to find that now he had two thieves, the private money changer and the political plunderer working hand in glove against him. By this combination the money changer gained the prestige of political sanction through legislative license and the state secured a deceptive device for laying taxes upon the citizenry (by means of the hidden tax inflation). It was and remains a vicious alliance.” - E.C. Reigel (1879-1953) monetary theorist and consumer advocate

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:26 | 652822 Bob
Bob's picture

If it is big enough to meet the markets' insane expectations, it will most likely kick the currency war into full speed and start the sequence that leads to the dollar's death as the international reserve currency.

Nahh, it could never happen here, right?  TBTF--born and bred in the USA.  We'll see how that works with the rest of the world. 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:26 | 652825 mrcmmm
mrcmmm's picture

Re: RMBS/foreclosure fraud, see the following:

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/14/how-wall-street-hid-its-mortgage-mess/?hp

A firm evaluating loan portfolios for RMBS sponsors BEFORE securitization gave detailed information to the sponsors regarding the level of shit in the pool.  Said information was not passed on to the RMBS investors.  Securities fraud, ladies and gentlemen.  This will dwarf the foreclosure side once it really gets rolling.  States, unions, foreign sovereign wealth funds, everybody will be suing the big 5.  Everybody.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:35 | 652844 Bob
Bob's picture

Beautiful

An absolute must-read.  And the plot thickens:

These are very good questions. And while we await the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission’s answers, the good news is that the news media have begun to pick up on the outrageous behavior its hearing revealed. The Times’ Gretchen Morgenson reported on that Clayton Holdings had in fact offered to make its data available to the three ratings agencies that rated mortgage-backed securities, but that each rejected Clayton’s offer. It seems they feared that if they revealed the flaws in the underwriting of the mortgages, they would lose other business from the investment banks that put the mortgage-backed securities together.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:37 | 653121 mrcmmm
mrcmmm's picture

Exactly.  And thus appears another set of defendants.  Now we have:  Originating banks, sponsor banks, servicing banks, trustee banks, rating agencies, title companies.

There's just too much chum in the water.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:27 | 652828 tom
tom's picture

jon stewart said it best: there can't be this many "perfect storms". we're just in a shitty boat!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:32 | 652846 Tsunami Effect
Tsunami Effect's picture

You have to understand what is happening in the context of Obama's world view.  Redistributive Change.  The followers and administration of Obama are all belivers in this concept.  They view it as a continuationof the civil rights movement.  Obama's interview comments place all of this into perspective.  If the goal is redistribution of wealth to the oppressed as an extension of the civil rights movement, then everything that leads the country toward that goal is acceptable.

If you look at the victories and failures of the civil rights movement and its litigation strategy in the court. I think where it succeeded was to invest formal rights in previously dispossessed peoples, so that now I would have the right to vote. I would now be able to sit at the lunch counter and order as long as I could pay for it I’d be okay. But, the Supreme Court never ventured into the issues of redistribution of wealth, and of more basic issues such as political and economic justice in the society. To that extent, as radical as I think people try to characterize the Warren Court, it wasn’t that radical. It didn’t break free from the essential constraints that were placed by the founding fathers in the Constitution, at least as its been interpreted and Warren Court interpreted in the same way, that generally the Constitution is a charter of negative liberties. Says what the states can’t do to you. Says what the Federal government can’t do to you, but it doesn’t say what the Federal government or State government must do on your behalf, and that hasn’t shifted and one of the, I think, the tragedies of the civil rights movement was because the civil rights movement became so court focused I think there was a tendency to lose track of the political and community organizing and activities on the ground that are able to put together the actual coalitions of powers through which you bring about redistributive change. In some ways we still suffer from that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:15 | 653031 hambone
hambone's picture

Maybe big O talks a good game of "redistribution" but on the ground, the only redistribution is from middle to upper / lower economic rungs.  Top 1% never been better and although big O likes to talk 'bout "fat cats", every policy continues to only make them fatter.

Big O has been more successful in killing the middle at the benefit of the toop 1% while slowing lulling the unions / poor w/ "free stuff" than Bush or Reagan ever dreamed (oh, btw, I voted for Big O so don't give me any far right tea bagger shit...I'm part of what used to be the Dem party of social lib and fiscal conservatives...seems like a long, long time ago).

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:44 | 653594 JR
JR's picture

 

Thanks for this incredible window on President Obama’s Constitutional and social views.  As the Acorn man, he follows the pattern of community activists who believe government financed by taxpayers can institute “economic justice.” To use stronger government to get their “share of  the pie,” however, Obama needs the Bob Rubin team to pull the levers of power to shift the middle class’s wealth.  Big surprise, however; it shifts to the bankers and not to the people.

The most amazing part of the quotation you provide is Obama’s total disdain for the Founder’s vision and promise for limited government. When the federal government “can’t do it to you” and the state government can’t do it “on your behalf,” the Founders meant for free enterprise and a growth of individual freedom to provide for an ever-improving civilization.

If Obama had been America’s first president, there never would have been a second president; and that is exactly why he and his supporters must be turned back to the past.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:38 | 653918 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Of course.  If we had McCain/Palin in the White House none of this would have happened.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 19:59 | 654449 JR
JR's picture

If we had McCain/Palin in the White House we would be in WWIII.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:38 | 652848 Tsunami Effect
Tsunami Effect's picture

x

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:37 | 652865 Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

Well at least Benny is not as gutless as the commissioners of the CFTC who still refuse to  set limits on the bankers who heavily and incorrectly shorted the precious metals markets for many years.  What a waste of money paying their salaries to allow that corruption!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:39 | 653922 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The CFTC will not be the scapegoat that "brought down the system".  They are covering their butts and cowering in the corner just as every other gov't agency which has responsibility.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:38 | 652869 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

All dollar bounces are orchestrated FX games and gold has seen right through them.  All attempts to bottle gold have been orchestrated failures.  Stop trading metals and hold on for your life.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:41 | 652871 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Bernanke is no more powerful than the wizard of Oz.  IMHO, he is not in control and never was.  The markets of the world (bond, stocks and commodities) are way too big for any institution to control.  QE2 is a bluff and I for one am calling him on it.  He cannot do it without coordinating with the rest of the world and there are too many conflicting interests.  Even Bernanke knows that dropping the monetization A-bomb will have serious international consequences.  My prediction is that he will continue to sterilize some MBS, but he is under tremendous pressure to minimize it.  Like in Oz, it will all be to support dissembling.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:14 | 653028 JR
JR's picture

The biggest difference with the Wizard of Oz is we can see Bernanke; the results of his money manipulations are not behind the curtain.  And to suggest that the money power is not coming from the Fed, IMO, is to refute your lying eyes. Bernanke creates money and destroys value; let’s see Oz do that.  Bernanke can destroy the economy and destroy  people’s lives.  All Oz could do was talk and cause fear.

In the end, as you suggest, the economies of the world will trump the Fed; in the meantime, Bernanke will have destroyed the livelihoods of millions of people

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:26 | 653077 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

IMO, foreign creditors will tell Ben how much he is allowed to monetize.  He can't and won't destroy the dollar because the very existence of the USG is dependent on the kindness of strangers.  If monetization goes too far, creditors will sell and the government will no longer be able to fund itself.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:41 | 653139 JR
JR's picture

I agree, he’s not in a position to dictate terms anymore.  If he had all the cards, he and Geithner would be on their way to an IMF currency by now, and the other central banks would be on board.  IMO, the recent IMF sessions show how poor Bernanke’s cards are now. 

 

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:41 | 652883 wafflehead
wafflehead's picture

it was just a shakeout of weak hands

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 11:48 | 652915 Yellow_Paul_Fra...
Yellow_Paul_Frank_Monkeys's picture

I have to agree 100%

 

Everything keeps playing out as it has previously.  Keep buying everything but Natty Gas and Dollar.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:04 | 652982 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Yup.

I MFin' call, Bennie!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 12:18 | 653043 Punderoso
Punderoso's picture

Old Model (Greenspan Put): easy money policy by lowering Feds Funds Rate.

New Model(Bernanke Put): Fed Funds rate permanently at zero, more easy money policy by POMO.

Future Model: Permanent Fed Funds rate at zero, permanent monthly POMOs, and more easy money policy by actual helicopter.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:34 | 653336 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

"Even gold is vulnerable to a correction should QE2 be judged a disappointment by the market. I remain very bullish on gold longer term. But I've taken profit on most of my GLD calls recently."

What you going to do?  Go to cash?  Mish posted this today. 

--------

Gold Market on U.S. Elections: So What?

Posted: 14 Oct 2010 03:52 PM PDT

Except on rare occasions I do not do guest posts on this blog. This is one of the exceptions. It is from my friend Charles Goyette, author of the The Dollar Meltdown

From Charles Goyette...

Gold Market on U.S. Elections: So What?

For those of us who recognize the complicity of both Republicans and Democrats in our economic calamity, it has been satisfying to see the party establishments of each pummeled this election season. But as far as averting the currency crisis I describe in The Dollar Meltdown, the gold market says it’s too little, too late.

It’s no surprise that politicians hear only what they want to hear, but the Democrats take a new world indoor record for tone-deafness into the election. As the year opened with real unemployment at double-digit levels, all the President and the Democrat establishment could think about was passing Obamacare. They may be proud that they stayed on message, never mind that for most people a health care plan starts with a job and some savings.

With polls suggesting Republicans are set to re-take the House, it looks like the Democrats have a glass jaw to go along with that tin ear. And while scattered tea party victories gave the Republican establishment the thrashing it so richly deserved, the bad news is that none of it matters to our financial prospects. At least that’s the message from the gold market.

Who can disagree? Unless you think that Republicans will want to go into the next election cycle having taken on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other entitlements, there is not much hope that they will do anything meaningful about fiscal policy. Announced on September 23, the Republican Pledge to America promised to save “at least $100 billion in the first year alone.” $100 billion a year? They can’t be serious. By the end of September, just a week later, the federal debt had already grown by another $100 billion. Of course Republicans will tinker with the hated Obamacare just enough to deliver up some form of Boehner-care. Sorry, but the chance to earn lobbyist affection and future campaign contributions trumps any thoughts about simply facing up to federal insolvency and getting government out of health care.

Some real money could be saved rolling back the American empire. Congressman Ron Paul and others calculate total war and foreign spending at about $1 trillion a year. In this context, a return of the Republicans reminds us of Talleyrand’s comment on the Bourbon dynasty that returned to the throne of France after the abdication of Napoleon: They “had learned nothing and forgotten nothing." Republicans seemed to have learned nothing and forgotten everything. Betraying a hubris not seen since Bush set off to “rid the world of evil,” the pledge from November’s likely winners includes “bringing certainty to an uncertain world.” Republicans do take their military Keynesianism seriously. Just months ago Republican congressmen came together to support President Obama’s surge in Afghanistan with a $59 billion emergency spending bill. Now they are campaigning about a “robust defense,” one category of spending that even the new members from the tea parties aren’t inclined to resist.

On the monetary front, Federal Reserve officials, having forgotten at least the French Revolution and probably the 1970’s as well, are counting on inflation to kick start economic growth. Money printing is the Fed’s old time religion, but at least they are going to the trouble of bottling it under new names: liquidity operations, deficit accommodating, and quantitative easing. When chairman Bernanke said something euphemistic last week about “additional purchases,” gold shot up again, joined by silver and oil. And the dollar moved decisively lower. It’s now down 12 percent since June, resuming its long-term slide. Markets are said to be pretty good at discounting future events. Haven’t they heard that the fiscal conservatives will re-take Washington?

It is clear that the rest of the world is similarly unimpressed by Fed euphemisms or the dollar’s prospects, no matter who wins. Like the picnic ramada at the park where people take cover for a while when it begins to rain, investors take cover with the dollar briefly during a crisis. They did so in the 2008 mortgage meltdown and again during the Euro debt crisis. But like a ramada, nobody wants to live there. Or wait out a really bad storm.

Where does one weather a currency crisis? Take a look around. Reuters reported this week on a Swiss private banker who handles clients with at least $50 million to invest that they are buying gold, sometimes by the ton, and moving it out of the financial system. According to the Financial Times, JPMorgan, having recently built a vault in Singapore, has reopened an underground gold vault in New York, while Deutsche Bank and Barclays may be opening new vaults in London. India illustrates the trend: investment demand in India has grown to 92.5 tons in the first six months of this year, compared to 25.4 tons a year earlier; this time last year India’s central bank lightened its dollar reserves substantially, taking down 200 tons of gold in one move. They aren’t alone.

Central banks around the world, long net sellers of gold reserves, have become buyers, among them China and Russia. Gold keeps making new all-time highs. And it doesn’t seem to care about the Republican’s prospects this fall.

---------------

The above article was also a guest post on CNBC with a different title Goyette: Finding Shelter in a Currency Crisis

If you have not yet read The Dollar Meltdown, please do so. It is well worth a look. Here is a review I did shortly after it came out: The Dollar Meltdown: Book Review

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 13:41 | 653380 sunny
sunny's picture

You forgot Tojo.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 14:15 | 653512 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

GLD is not gold

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 15:26 | 653690 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Since you are listing all the bad stuff coming down the pike, you are forgetting about the long-term unemployed.

It's been more than 99 weeks since Lehman collapsed. Every month hundreds of thousands of people are running out of UI. Plus, in December millions of people on extended benefits will be cut off.

You can't simply cut off millions of people without there being a negative effect on the economy.

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 16:34 | 653905 Kryten451
Kryten451's picture

Bodies will just keep piling up.  Blame will be cast on the victims.  Geniuses will Pontificate that these people are just not wanted and this is the natural order of things..

And to keep the process moving, officials will cry out against the evils of protectionism (sounds nasty !).. so that off-shoring US Jobs game can continue without interferance..

....not sure what happens next

Sat, 10/16/2010 - 11:05 | 655074 Jim B
Jim B's picture

Nah, UI will be extended to infinity!  They will never have to work again!

Fri, 10/15/2010 - 18:11 | 654198 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

Lol - Hitler, Mao, and Greenspan

Sun, 10/17/2010 - 04:37 | 656158 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

GOLD updated chart showing parabolic move.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Tue, 11/16/2010 - 10:23 | 730510 daniel
daniel's picture

Really this is a great post from an expert and thank you very much for sharing this valuable information with us.
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