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Guest Post: Are You There Stocks? It's Me, Credit

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Thu, 06/02/2011 - 12:35 | 1332704 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

How much more stuff would you be able buy with 2011 $800 when compared with 1997 $100 ?

Up a lot in nominal terms but up modestly in real terms.

So lame.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 12:43 | 1332729 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Alternative:

Buy a Fixed Equity Index Annuity and get 0% downside risk and probably capture a similar % of the gains.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 13:08 | 1332887 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Interestingly, theses were widely mocked in the US as a scam when markets were performing well. Not looking so bad these days.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 13:14 | 1332912 redpill
redpill's picture

I have a strategy that involves picking the stocks that go up in price the most, it back tests perfectly!!11

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 13:29 | 1332980 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I highly recommend Las Vegas Sands at $1.44 in 2009. Buy it but be prepared to sell and even short it aggressively today or even yesterday.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 12:34 | 1332708 aheady
aheady's picture

That title made me spit out my lunch.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 13:09 | 1332827 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Last place I expected to see a Judy Blume reference.

You can likely achieve returns somewhat similar to these (vs. the index) via a portfolio of (and the more passive strategy of) low beta stocks. The market timing premise of this one seems like a nail-biter to me.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 14:30 | 1333319 aheady
aheady's picture

LOL How 'bout it? We must be the same age.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 14:38 | 1333350 Don Smith
Don Smith's picture

+1.  I LOL'ed, too. 

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 12:36 | 1332715 chartcruzer
chartcruzer's picture

There are a ton of mechanical systems out there to follow that will net phat profits.

Take a look at the PSAR (0.15,0.2) on the SPX

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s206018187]&disp=P

Anyone can use for free.

If you leverage up with 2X ETFs,,,,,, $$$$

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 12:42 | 1332724 3.7.77
3.7.77's picture

It seems to have been productive only since QE started.

Not a real good sign, should have just BTFD.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 12:43 | 1332730 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

This is awesome!

Would you guarantee me this performance going forward based on your hindsight strategy?

I love all strategies to gain 350%+ that are near certainties based on historical events.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 13:02 | 1332831 redpill
redpill's picture

 

Simply put, the TAA strategy is to hold stocks when the indicator signals they are cheap and hold Treasuries when the indicator signals stocks are expensive.

 

Bouncing between stocks and bonds, what a new and inventive strategy.  Do you have a monthly subscription newsletter too with hot penny stock picks?

 

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 13:34 | 1333013 Greeny
Greeny's picture

When something is "Expensive" absolutely doesn't mean that

it could be even more Expensive, any financial instrument can

stay oversold or overbought much longer than any investor

can stay solvent trading based on those RSI indicators (theory).

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 13:35 | 1333022 leonard1234
leonard1234's picture

Tyler is really impressing me with the wittiness of his titles and comments.  Keep it coming!

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 13:37 | 1333027 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

What a stinking pile of crap!  Looking at the chart, your "strategy" tightly correlates with the market right up until the credit crisis.  It's easy to look back at historical data and design a "strategy" that back-tests well, and outperforms the market.

 

Here's mine... Long tech stocks from 1997 to March, 2000, then short tech stocks from March 2000 till the end of 2002.  Pick up some gold below $300 along the way.  Long financials from 2003 till the beginning of 2007, then short financials from 2007 till March 2009.  Then dump it all into a triple leveraged Russell 2000 ETF from March 2009 till last week.  Oh, and pick up some silver in August 2010 and sell it all on April 28th, 2011.

 

How does that back test?  Not too shabby I'll guess.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 00:54 | 1334897 h3m1ngw4y
h3m1ngw4y's picture

you dont know much about backtesting, do you?

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 13:37 | 1333033 Greeny
Greeny's picture

Besides there is a reason why stocks are "overvalued"

Cause it's no brainer with 0% interest rates and unlimited QE

from the FED. And ain't going to change anytime soon, so?

Guess what? Keep buying treasuries :) *LOL*

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 14:55 | 1333411 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I am eagerly awaiting the invention of the time machine, which is when I'm going to absolutely kill it, mofos!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!