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Guest Post: Argentina Running Out Of Options In Falklands Oil Fight

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Tue, 03/30/2010 - 10:34 | 280414 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"...but regional expert Riordan Roett doubts the Argentines are “stupid enough to do that.”

Please don't underestimate the level of shear stupidity politicians can display when they have run out of options or are about to be exposed. And don't assume every apparently stupid thing leaders do isn't intended to look that way in order to create conditions that force them to do things they publicly declare abhorrent but privately have a boner for. Most of these bastards are puppets, handmaidens for others who wish to remain in the shadows.

In a remix of a crowd favorite, it it looks too stupid to be true, it isn't.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 10:41 | 280419 junkyard dog
junkyard dog's picture

4 miles of water and 5 miles of rock before one hits oil, no problem. Should be able to pump oil at about $ 210 barrel.


Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:48 | 280501 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Should be able to pump oil at about $ 210 barrel.

So in other words, you're saying it will be wildly profitable by Q3 2011?

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 10:43 | 280421 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

You can't just stick a straw in the ground and suck up oil. All the big finds are made, there is no supergiant field off the Falklands.

We are past peak.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:19 | 280423 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I drink your milkshake! Sluuuuuuurrp. I drink it up.

That's what it's all about nowadays. I either drink it up with horizontal drilling or I beat you over the head and take it outright. The resource wars have only just begun.


Tue, 03/30/2010 - 12:24 | 280557 Sabremesh
Sabremesh's picture

Apart from the bit about it being impossible to suck up oil with a straw, which I will grant you, the rest of your post is a series of opinions, couched as statements of fact. The truth is we don't know any of those things for certain.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 16:50 | 280946 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Can someone just shoot some f'ing seismic already, we'll know the answer in ~2 years.  Acquisition -> Processing -> Interpretation -> Reservoir Analysis = No more fucking speculation.



Tue, 03/30/2010 - 10:49 | 280425 caconhma
caconhma's picture

Argentina welfare state is broke and is not in any capacity to do anything to protect itself or it people from an old colonial bastard.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:49 | 280503 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

And yet, apart from the "old colonial bastard" part, precisely the same thing could be said about the UK.

Look, it's a race of midget cripples!

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 12:03 | 280532 Sabremesh
Sabremesh's picture

Sorry, but where does Spain come into this!?

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:08 | 280440 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Every government can benefit from a military victory.  If I were Argentina I'd go for it:

-No Maggie Thatcher to contend with nor any other UK leader in sight that is even remotely as tough as she.

-The British navy has very recently shown that they are willing to let their own sailors be taken hostage, beneath the guns of their own warships, by a few men in rubber rafts.

What other factors really are worthy of consideration? I'd be surprised if those Brit subs didn't have corks in their torpedo tubes with legal disclaimers flopping around on strings.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:26 | 280466 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I disagree.  Argentina would get its ass handed to it, even more so than before.  The UK would have to respond to any war on its own territory. 

Re UK/Iran, well, they just don't have any enthusiasm to be riding along with our intrigues in the Middle East.

If there were war, that might also finally wake up the Argentine people frrom their eternal slumber and throw the Kirchners out (naah, 'course not).  Preza Cristina could always find a pulpit in Caracas.

Pity, because Argentina could be such a nice place.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 12:41 | 280575 if
if's picture

How resistant are supertankers to an RPG ?  If all you want is a piece of the action you can disrupt without taking the islands.

But the Argentines should wait until someone else proves there's oil.   

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:47 | 280500 RowdyRoddyPiper
RowdyRoddyPiper's picture

Righto matey.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:18 | 280460 -273
-273's picture
Falkland Islands oil disappoints for Desire Petroleum

Shares in Desire ended Monday trading in London down 49.5%.

In a stock market announcement, Desire said that initial results from the Liz 14/19-1 well, in the North Falkland basin, showed that the quantities of oil may be small and of poor quality.

From bbc

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:34 | 280475 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Argentina is running out of options in all fronts, and the last, the nationalist boast/crap will fail spectacularly. That's where a strong military shines but the vindicative Left, getting back the 70s, destroyed the military forces: humiliated (~700 top senior in jail now) and with old equipment there's nothing they can do even if they had to protect the main land, much less attack anybody.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:42 | 280491 Cow
Cow's picture

Britain has 1,300 troops stationed on the islands, as well as the guided missile destroyer HMS York, the offshore patrol vessel HMS Clyde and the Royal Fleet Auxiliary tanker Wave Ruler, as well as four Typhoon air superiority fighters stationed in the South Atlantic.

Argentina is going to do nothing except take a page out of the Obama Iranian strategy and write a stern letter.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:54 | 280516 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Argentina is going to do nothing except take a page out of the Obama Iranian strategy and write a stern letter."

Hand delivered with the personal request not to publicize the contents, since Argentina is still on double secret probation from the last time they rattled their sabers.



Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:45 | 280497 Slartibartfast
Slartibartfast's picture

Even old Lions still have claws. Argentina will pay for its utter stupidity for decades to come. This was one issue Thatcher got right by calling Argentina's bluff and by telling the U.S. 'there's no middle gorund here....stay out of our way'.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:52 | 280510 Alexandra Hamilton
Alexandra Hamilton's picture

Shares in Desire Petroleum have almost halved after the oil explorer said a well being drilled off the Falkland Islands may not be economically viable.

Shares in other companies operating off the Falklands also fell amid fears that the region's reserves may disappoint.


Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:54 | 280511 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 11:54 | 280515 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Mercury great comments LOL

You are correct of course, the Royal Navy barely has enough ships for a "three hour tour" let alone an 8,000 mile voyage south, thanks to a welfare state and the Labour party.

Let them fight it out on the soccer field at the upcoming World Cup, whoever wins gets the islands!

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 12:11 | 280543 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

That would be a great match! But I suspect the British would send a rugby team instead and Maradona (still coach?) would sprinkle the "magic dust" on his team.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 12:14 | 280548 Rick64
Rick64's picture

Oil and a possible war. Jackpot! I bet the U.S. is jealous, no we got the whole middle east.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 12:41 | 280585 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Christina's attempt at smoke and mirriors to distract from current events like their Port Workers strike which has paralyzed their grain exports.


Tue, 03/30/2010 - 12:55 | 280606 Slartibartfast
Slartibartfast's picture

When it comes to the Royal Navy, ask yourself this question: how have those who underestimated it fared? Not so good...you won't see a Royal Navy ship busted up by a guy in a rubber dinghy.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 13:07 | 280638 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Watch out for the small boats, we had one of our destroyers almost sunk and put out of commission for three years by a small boat packed with explosives and manned by a nut job in Yemen not too long ago.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 13:13 | 280646 Slartibartfast
Slartibartfast's picture

I believe that was my point.

Tue, 03/30/2010 - 17:36 | 280994 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

That was more an intel failure.  Had they been alerted to the threat, one guy with a machine gun would have taken out that boat.  That said, if I'm the captain of that ship, no matter what someone says, if I'm parked in Yemen, I'm gonna have a couple boys with MG's on deck shooting first and asking questions later.

Kirchner doesn't seem to realize that if you want to bluff in poker, you need some chips on the table.  Argentina's military is a shambles, incapable of doing anything about the Falklands.

Oh, and don't think that when all this started someone from the Royal Navy didn't decide to park HMS Asute or one of the Trafalgar boats somewhere between Port Stanley and Buenos Aires.



Wed, 03/31/2010 - 12:24 | 281748 trichotil
trichotil's picture

 hmmm maybe that mysterious third party that profits from war (the longer the better) might donate a few exocets to get the money flowing.


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