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Guest Post: Behind and Beyond The Sinking of The Cheonan
Submitted by www.OilPrice.com on behalf of the OSINT Group
Behind and Beyond The Sinking of The Cheonan
INCIDENT: Thousands rallied in Seoul in early June to protest perceived North Korean threats against their country after the severing of bilateral relations following the sinking of a South Korea naval corvette in which 46 sailors died. Despite this, South Korean officials on 8 June said they would not seek any new sanctions against Pyongyang.
SIGNIFICANCE: The sinking of the S Korean navy corvette should be viewed from a perspective of succession drama in Pyongyang, rather than specifically in terms of North-South relations.
BACKGROUND: Pyongyang severed bilateral relations with South Korea after the latter published the results of an international investigation into the 26 March sinking of the South Korean naval corvette, the Cheonon. Pyongyang continues to deny involvement in the incident.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak responded by suspending trade and aid ties with its neighbor. Then, on 8 June, Seoul said it would not seek new sanctions against Pyongyang, though senior officials were seeking support from Beijing at the UN to “censure” North Korea over the incident. South Korean news agencies quoted Vice Foreign Minister Chun Yung-Woo as saying that new sanctions would have “no practical benefits.” This is seen in light of stricter UN sanctions laid against North Korea last year, aimed at the country’s weapons trade following missile launches and a second nuclear test.
South Korean military intelligence had warned earlier this year that there was a threat of torpedo attacks from North Korea, and that Pyongyang appeared to be planning an attack to revenge an incident in November 2009 in which it lost a skirmish with the South’s naval forces in the disputed Northern Limit Line.
Seoul now fears that Pyongyang may be planning massive cyber attacks on the Group of 20 summit in the South Korean capital scheduled for November. Pyongyang has also scrapped a pact designed to prevent naval clashes in the Yellow Sea, with leader Kim Jong-Il telling his country's armed forces to prepare for military action.
BOTTOM LINE: As far as South Korea is concerned, Seoul has taken a noticeably softer stance on the incident since the release of the investigative report. The fact that it is calling for support in the UN largely to reprimand Pyongyang without seeking additional measures is significant. Seoul is aware of the succession drama being played out in Pyongyang, and it also has politics to consider at home.
Problems in Seoul: Local elections held last week did not bode well for South Korean President Lee Myung Bak. The South Korean president is seen as advocating a tougher line with Pyongyang than his predecessors, and local elections last week were unfortunate to take place against the backdrop of the investigation into the sinking of the Cheonan. The opposition Democratic Party won seven mayoral and gubernatorial posts, with the president’s conservative Grand National Party (GNP) winning only six posts across the country. This is a clear indication of public sentiment ahead of 2012 presidential elections and shows a major loss for the GNP, which won twice as many posts in the last local elections. Though the government has said it did not intend to soften its stance and would instead look to change public opinion, the GNP is short on time and it is likely that the president will refrain from any measures against North Korea that would be perceived at home as risky.
Succession Drama in Pyongyang: Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Il’s third and youngest son, Jong-un (who holds a mid-level position on the National Defense Committee) is being heralded as the next likely head of state of North Korea. The transition of power is not necessarily an easy affair, and there is no clear approach to succession. The attack on the South Korean warship was likely intended as a stage-setter for Jong-un’s succession. The fact that North Korea, given its economic situation, appears to be facing imminent collapse will make succession even more difficult, and it must be played out cleverly. News reports suggest that the attack was made to look as if it was planned by Jong-un on his 27th birthday. Whether another succession will take place before North Korea collapses remains an open question.
Opportunity for China: The US and Japan support the results of an international investigation into the sinking of the South Korean warship, which points the finger at North Korea; China and Russia have not signed off on the results. The sinking of the South Korean warship is not likely to lead to a wider conflict at this point, and much of what happens on the geopolitical scene will depend on China’s willingness to play a mediating role, and its determination to seize the opportunity to use its economic leverage to help denuclearize a North Korea that is on the edge of famine. Beijing is planning $10 billion worth of infrastructure investments in North Korea (an amount that represents 70 percent of North Korean GDP). This is where the main opportunity is to move beyond simply “managing” Pyongyang to “resolving” major security issues. However, the People’s Liberation Army, which has close relations with the North Korean armed forces, may prove a spoiler here.
Source: http://oilprice.com/Geo-Politics/Asia/Behind-and-Beyond-The-Sinking-of-The-Cheonan.html
By The OSINT Group for Oilprice.com who offer detailed analysis on Oil, alternative Energy, Commodities, Finance and Geopolitics. They also provide free Geopolitical intelligence to help investors gain a greater understanding of world events and the impact they have on certain regions and sectors. Visit: http://www.oilprice.com
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Sunk, bitchez
Interesting that the Korean word "Cheonan" as translated into English means: Cheonan. Ubiquitous, nebulous, monotonous - I smell a conspiracy here.
i think it was strange how the usa was about to get kicked out of the marine base in okinawa japan, but immediately after this 'discovery' of n. korean involvement, they were invited to stay.
made me wonder
a false flag event? No. we have too much else on the plate for that to be reasonably feasable...but maybe...in which case...motive deduced!
Connected in a Global web...
To provide a new and spurious economic looting argument for making the US occupation of Afghanistan virtually endless, and to advance the candidacy of General David Petraeus as the principal neocon warmonger candidate for president on the Republican ticket in 2012 – these are the purposes of the story planted in the June 13, 2010 New York Times under the byline of James Risen, who is acting as stenographer for the neocons in the great tradition of his predecessor Judith Miller. In retrospect, this article may well be seen as the opening gun of an overt push to place General Petraeus in the White House in 2012 as the new Field Marshal von Hindenburg.
According to this story, a Pentagon survey has determined that Afghanistan possesses at least $1 trillion worth of valuable minerals, including iron, copper, cobalt, gold, and lithium – with lithium being especially valuable because it is used in batteries for computers and for the new designs of electric automobiles. Of course, none of this is news, as the article itself concedes. The surveys done by the US occupation authorities over the last several years are explicitly based on careful studies done by the Soviets during their own occupation of Afghanistan during the 1980s. The basic outlines of what is being presented by Risen as front-page news were already published in a May 2004 World Bank report, which was used to dictate minerals legislation to the Afghan government. More recently, Afghan mineral wealth has been hyped by the Afghan embassy in Washington on various occasions, and was a featured theme of the visit here last month by Afghan President Karzai.
Candidate Petraeus Touts “Stunning Potential”This planted puff piece is based on anonymous “senior US government officials.” The only exception is General David Petraeus, the warlord of the US Central Command, the theater of operations in which Afghanistan is located. Petraeus is directly cited as saying that the Afghan mineral riches whose presence the US has confirmed represent a “stunning potential” for the future development of the country. The implied message from Petraeus to the Washington elite is, to paraphrase, support me and cash in on the riches of Afghanistan, or else wimpy Obama’s self-serving pullout timetable will allow the Chinese to move in.
The repackaging and rehashing of the Afghan mineral story at this time represents a bid to mobilize political support by Wall Street, major minerals corporations, and other predatory interests to keep the US occupation of Afghanistan going far beyond the July 2011 date set by Obama for the beginning of a gradual pullout of US forces. The article makes clear that, if the US should depart from Afghanistan, the immense mineral wealth will fall easy prey to China. China, it is noted, has already taken over a copper mine in Afghanistan. In March of this year, it was a sudden alarm in Washington that Karzai’s Afghanistan was slipping into the Chinese orbit that motivated Obama’s hasty visit to Kabul. The implication is that, whether or not these minerals can actually be developed by the United States, it is imperative to stay in Afghanistan to make sure that they are denied to the Chinese.
The planted story is also designed to counter the growing war fatigue and defeatism among the US-led coalition, which is building up in advance of the NATO summit scheduled for Lisbon, Portugal this coming November. This coalition currently includes 46 nations, representing one third of the military forces deployed, and an even larger portion of the logistics necessary for the occupation. The new British regime has been signaling that its commitment to Afghanistan will not be eternal. Prime Minister David Cameron told British Tommies in Afghanistan that they will be brought home just as soon as their task is finished. Air Chief Marshal Jock Stirrup, the highest ranking uniformed military figure in the UK, is being ousted in a signal of deep cuts to come for the British military establishment. Poland has demanded that NATO come up with a detailed exit plan for ending the Afghan engagement. In Germany, the most recent poll shows about 70% opposition to the endless war, and budget cuts are looming in that country as well. The Netherlands and Canada both intend to withdraw their contingents from Afghanistan next year. Turkey is another country with a presence in Afghanistan that may soon become fed up with this adventure, especially because of the contemptuous and shoddy treatment meted out to the Turks by the State Department over the Iran uranium enrichment and Gaza aid flotilla issues. All signs suggest that, when the Afghan engagement comes up for discussion at the November NATO summit in Lisbon, disaffection and defection will be the dominant notes.
NATO defeatism comes on top of growing disaffection with Obama’s endless war inside the United States: the newest poll has a majority of 53% convinced that prolonging the Afghanistan war is not worth the sacrifices involved. Even more acute is the growing backlash from inside the Democratic Party. Congressman Charlie Rangel of Harlem recently assailed Obama as being “consistent with” Bush and Cheney when it comes to lying about the wars he is conducting.
Petraeus the Neocon, The Thinking Man’s WarmongerThe neocon cabal in Washington has been largely booted out of government by the Brzezinski-Trilateral-Bilderberg financier faction who run Obama. But the neocons are determined not to stay in the wilderness forever, and their chosen vehicle for a comeback is the Petraeus presidential candidacy. Petraeus is now the main unifying figure of the neocon war party. The allegedly thoughtful general was recently lionized at neocon central, the American Enterprise Institute, which gave him its Irving Kristol Award in early May. As Antiwar noted:
Petraeus is getting kudos from Max Boot, the Kagans, Frank Gaffney, and other ambitious neocon careerists.
Peter Beinart has compared Petraeus to Dwight Eisenhower, the 1952 GOP candidate, and thinks that Petraeus may be highly effective as a candidate in the current anti-politician atmosphere. Beinart, currently at the New America Foundation, comments:
The warmonger regroupment around Petraeus has been noticed across the Atlantic by the June 12 London Economist, which measures a Petraeus-Daniels ticket against a Palin-Huckabee one. In another article, the city of London house organ notes that, in addition to Huckabee, Romney, Palin, Pawlenty, and Barbour, “a few even hope that General David Petraeus could be lured in.” In reality, Petraeus is more than eager. If current US reactionary politics resembles the mad Hatter’s tea party with Alice and the white rabbit, as the Economist cover suggests, perhaps Petraeus can bring power out of chaos.
Once we know that the neocons are running the Petraeus for President campaign, much else becomes clear, especially if we recall the neocon methods used in connection with the Iraq invasion of 2003. The planted puff piece about Afghan minerals has neocon fingerprints all over it; it may have been concocted at the AEI. It implies that NATO states that stick with the US might receive a piece of the action when it comes to looting these natural resources. This is exactly the way that reconstruction contracts in Iraq were employed under neocon auspices. Back in those days, the Germans and the French were excluded because they had opposed the neocon-induced war hysteria of 2003.
One big objection to making the Afghan occupation infinite has to do with the tremendous monetary costs involved, which the sovereign debt crisis has made it harder for the participating governments to bear. Here we should remember the pie-in-the-sky promised by Wolfowitz and other neocons in 2002-2003, when they proclaimed that an invasion of Iraq would be self-financing, thanks to the promised looting of Iraqi oil, which in reality has never materialized in the promised form. Back in those years, there were even more extravagant neocon fantasies about what could be done by bringing Iraqi oil production under US control. Some neocons recommended a massive increase in Iraqi oil output with the goal of radically lowering the world price of oil and busting the OPEC cartel. All of this, we note in retrospect, was never accomplished.
Exercitus facit imperatorem: The Army Creates the EmperorThe presidency has been won by Washington, Jackson, Harrison, Zachary Taylor, Grant, Garfield, Theodore Roosevelt, and Eisenhower, so there is no doubt that military leaders have often represented formidable contenders. By contrast, the current Republican field represents a collection of largely discredited hacks and ideological crackpots who would have a very difficult time winning a presidential contest. Palin is an imbecile. Huckabee is a clown. Jindall is a bungler. Pawlenty is a nonentity. Barbour could be a deep south favorite son at the very most. DeMint is in the same regional minor league.
Romney, the asset stripper from Bain Capital, is wired into Wall Street and does well with country club plutocrats, but lacks appeal to the social issue and warmonger reactionary currents inside the GOP. Earlier this year, Romney’s future appeared to be that of vice president and de facto prime minister/austerity enforcer in a Petraeus-Romney administration. But now, many have figured out that the Obama health care bill, with its capitulation to the insurance and big pharma cartels, is directly based on the individual mandate to buy overpriced insurance under government coercion instituted by Romney when he was governor of Massachusetts. Given the current agitation of the Tea Party Romney’s identification with the Obama health bill is now an obstacle to his future aspirations. In response to this problem, various media have begun to tout Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, a former Reagan appointee who does not share Romney’s Massachusetts problems, although he is less effective in other ways. For the moment, we must conclude that the choice between a Petraeus-Romney ticket and a Petraeus-Daniels GOP ticket is still up in the air.
Petraeus: the New von HindenburgIf the Petraeus candidacy materializes in the way that now seems likely, it will mark a new phase in the ungovernability, economic immiseration, and erosion of democracy in the United States. Unfortunately, the historical parallels for a Petraeus candidacy do not point in the direction of Eisenhower. They point rather towards Field Marshal Paul von Hindenburg, the German commander of World War I who became president of the Weimar Republic in 1925 and during whose reactionary and authoritarian presidency the Hitler movement rapidly grew in power. It was Hindenburg who allowed Hitler to take state power in 1933 by appointing him as Chancellor, leading to the swift consolidation of a totalitarian dictatorship. Hindenburg’s appeal was that he was a general and not a politician, not a creature of corrupt parliamentary haggling and backroom deals, but only accustomed simply to obey or to command. This meant that the Hindenburg presidency had a definite anti-parliamentary and anti-democratic thrust from the very beginning, and that is what we can expect to see if Petraeus ever gets to the White House. With the German parliament paralyzed by about March 1930, Hindenburg’s presidency soon became a continuous state of emergency rule, in which the Field Marshal approved or disapproved emergency decrees submitted by a series of chancellors – Brüning, von Papen, von Schleicher, and finally Hitler.
Petraeus has the advantage of being able to play on the sense of military discipline and loyalty which is ingrained in many Tea Party activists. Even a cursory survey of the Tea Party folk shows that a very large number of them are retired military, and their movement is full of militaristic overtones favorable to foreign aggression. There is reason to believe that many of these activists would immediately place Petraeus, whom they naïvely might view as the victor of Mesopotamia, in a special privileged category above other candidates, and rapidly fall into line. This probable ability to deliver the recalcitrant Tea Party gives Petraeus a great advantage over other Republican hopefuls like Romney, who might be competitive in the general election, but who would have a very hard time fighting their way through Republican primaries dominated by ideological fanaticism.
Obama has been doing yeoman service as a union buster, forcing the United Auto Workers to give up games they had acquired through decades of bitter struggle and sacrifice. Obama and his Secretary of Education Arnie Duncan are leading the charge to bust the teachers’ unions as the centerpiece of a general assault against public employees of all types conducted under the banner of ferocious austerity. Right now, Obama still remains the best strike breaker the Wall Street financier elite can deploy. But Obama is collapsing rapidly, and the ruling elite must prepare an alternative option for 2012. But G. W. Bush left the Republican Party in a shambles, racked by internal dissent and lead by the group of reactionary clowns, mountebanks, and misfits we have already mentioned. Would the Republican Party as it currently exists be sufficient, if put into power, to break the kind of strike wave that that might emerge (as in Greece) from the current policies of retrenchment, drastic austerity, savage cuts in social services, union busting, and tax gouging? There is some doubt that it could.
Petraeus could certainly mobilize the Tea Party to break strikes and protests by workers, students, immigrants, and supporters of social services, but his big advantage would be his ability to lean on the uniformed military establishment and the secret intelligence agencies in a more overt way than other presidents could. Again, the example of von Hindenburg is instructive. A Petraeus presidency would most likely be an exercise in emergency rule, a de facto dictatorship by Executive Order under the color of the existing 9/11 national emergency, or of some other emergency which Petraeus could declare. Petraeus could maintain a certain public detachment in order to preserve his credibility longer, while leaving the dirty details to a vice presidential Prime Minister like Romney or Mitch Daniels, both of whom have experience as state governors. The content of the emergency decrees would inevitably be economic austerity of the most brutal type, combined with unprecedented attacks on civil liberties, against a background of new and catastrophic foreign military adventures.
During this week’s hearings on the wretched state of the Afghan military adventure conducted by the Senate Armed Services Committee, committee chair Senator Carl Levin asked if, in the professional military judgment of General Petraeus, Obama’s announced goal of starting the US departure from Afghanistan were advisable. Petraeus pointedly refused to endorse Obamas July 2011 target, first remaining silent for a prolonged interval, then hemming and hawing, and finally offering a highly qualified and grudging assent, while warning that it is necessary to be very careful with timetables. In other words, Petraeus has decided to leave open the option of clashing with Obama over the conduct of the Afghan war. One can imagine a scenario in which Petraeus sometime around July 2011 resigns his command in protest over Obama’s desire to cut and run, and vows to take the issue to the voters. He might even take a leaf from von Hindenburg’s book and accuse Obama of wanting to stab his gallant forces in the back, just when final victory is within their grasp. The precedents for this kind of politics are not good.
[1] Kelley B. Vlahos, “President Petraeus,” May 17, 2010, at http://original.antiwar.com/vlahos/2010/05/17/president-petraeus/
[2] Peter Beinart, “Petraeus for President?” October 12, 2009, at http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-10-12/petraeus-for-president/full/
Holy shit you write fast! But I don't know about the Fainting Fascist; paints a rather pussy facade for the rough and pedophile Republicans. But you make some very good points.
You're a genius! Who knew Republicans were pedophiles up to this moment? It explains everything.
"pussy facade"
That visualization is difficult to stabilize..
Wow, this is your finest article yet, geopol.
Petraeus propagated the US Counterinsurgency Manual, which was largely derived from what the military establishment learned from the post-Bremer meltdown in Iraq.
Read it here: http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-24fd.pdf
I don't think much of it. It's basically "bribe everybody, run a sophisticated propaganda operation, avoid too many direct battles."
I doubt that he could either win an election or suppress rebellion from angry states. He's too politically tone-deaf. I doubt that he could attract women voters or win over the press.
The media functions differently from the way it did in 2000. Now, the web drives news coverage. Before, the web reacted to the MSM. Editors now assign stories according to trending topics on Google Analytics or Twitter. The private media needs to bow to changing tastes in order to maintain revenues - advertisers have more options now than the old propaganda outlets.
The Obama political machine was a stunning achievement, but I doubt that the success can be replicated, even with a huge quantity of funds. Americans have lost their blood-lust, and as such no longer particularly desire another military commander.
Outside of Washington, I doubt that many people can even recognize Petraeus' name.
The surge was a BS. The insurgency was primarily composed of the Sunni who had lost the reigns of power. The military and the police were dominated by Sunni. The US booted all of them out of work and put the Shia and Kurds in their place. Claims about Al Qaeda were always bull$hit. The insurgency is being funded by Bathist who fled and other Sunni countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Gulf States ...etc. The Sunni insurgency bought off more than they could chew by slaughtering too many Shia in an attempt to trigger a civil war and finally a backlash against the occupation. The Shia used their numerical superiority and the US military to ethnically cleanse over 1.5 million Sunni from the country. The Shia now control Baghdad, all major cities and the oil wells outside the Kurdish areas. The Sunni would have been exterminated if they had not cut a deal with the US military to protect them. The money the US has been paying to them also has cut the size of the insurgency down. All sides are keeping their powder dry and are now waiting for the day the US draws down. There is going to be one hell of a bloodbath once the Sunni and their supporters in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the gulf States restart the war.
What is not known is what the average Iraqi Arab Shia will do in the future. There is a lot of animosity by both the Iraqi Sunni and Shia against the Iraqi Arab Shia who were in Iran for the last 30 years and run the Iraqi government. There is also over one million Persian Shia living in Iraq. I would suspect that the Sunni and some Shia groups will attempt to push the Persians and their Iraqi clients out. It is going to get ugly.
Well-summarized.
I suspect that the Shia will just finish murdering the Iraqi Sunnis. As far as I understand it, many if not most of the professional class Sunnis have fled to neighboring Arab countries already.
When the US leaves, KSA will go through some extreme tribulation - especially if their reserves really are under pressure. If KSA no longer feels that it must continue to serve the US, however, it may cut down on using saline injection to preserve the long-term viability of their reservoirs.
With Turkey further signalling its dissatisfaction with NATO domination following the flotilla massacre, the fields under Kurdish domination may be disrupted.
I won't make predictions on oil prices. As US municipalities die out, the Federal government dissipates, and technology enables people to drive less for the basics, I suspect that the demand destruction will be awe-inspiring.
There are many wild cards in this equation.
Apostate,,,
WOW,,Thankx,,
Hey, my pleasure, your analysis on this one was pitch-perfect.
It's logical for the neocons to back a general in an electoral coup. The neocons are Trotskyites, down to the bone. If they thought they could pull it off, they would go for a full-on violent coup, but I know - from personal experience enduring the presence of some moderate-level neocon types - that they lack the will to power and numbers necessary for a full violent revolution.
I mean, they could easily garner the support of the security and intelligence services, but they wouldn't be able to extend control beyond that. If all you have is a bludgeon, you can't encourage economic growth. The USSR would've collapsed almost immediately if it were not for US aid. The same goes in part for Hitler's Germany. He required US financing. No one would support a US militaristic autarky.
The neocons won't be able to run a command economy without similar levels of foreign aid.
But that is what they would prefer - make no mistake about it.
"The neocons are Trotskyites"
I think there is a lot of projection going on in this thread.
Great post geopol, I've posted this before, but definitely appropriate here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wiRhVzsXFM
Yes, Webster Tarpley's been all over this point too. The positioning of similarities with Ike are too creepy for me. I still have my attention on Petraeus's little fainting spell this week. I know there was talk that it was "he skipped breakfast" but that timing's bugging me. I don't think stuff like this happens by accident in DC. Perhaps someone is reminding the General that "thou art mortal".
If you're all hot 'n bothered for a military man to lead the free world, I suggest a Marine Corps drill instructor, around Gunnery Sgt rank. Nothing gets past them, they are brave, and can kick your ass on PT any time. Barney Frank couldn't get out one flabby syllable before he got hit with "Pipe down, fat body!"
I get the same feeling reading this that I did when I used to study the Roman Empire. Fascinating perspective! Geopolitics is definitely more interesting than finance and economics.
I found your perspective on the Republicans refreshing and dead-on.
Tyler, can you promote geopol's illuminating comment to a headlined article? It deserves attention.
shortly after the int. investigation was announced i believe, 4 nk subs got wet and i haven't seen mention of them since. i guess they can stay down as long as their food holds out. if they get short of fuel they might pop up in the gom.
They were spotted just off the coast of south Florida.
http://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2010/06/18/Fishermen-spot-periscope-off-So-Florida/UPI-90971276885787/
maybe one already did
http://www.freedomradio.us/Joomla/index.php/articles-of-interest/7182-us...
Great news! Looks like BP is off the hook!
Overwrought. Nice little hothouse hit-piece on an honorable and effective U.S. military commander.
By the way, the use of "warmongner" is particularly inappropriate in the case of Petraeus. The word "monger" is archaic english for someone who sells something, like a fishmonger. Petraeus has in no way sold or encouraged or profited by war in general or the Afghanistan campaign in particular. He is simply a professional Army officer who is executing his responsibilities as best he can.
Dark conspiracy theories are always titillating for those without enough to to with themselves, but this one is ridiculous and insulting to a fine man.
Thanks for that, Sam. Too many on this site have no idea what it means to serve in the military. The left's banner ad---"Petraeus Betray-us", along with Hillary Clinton's disgusting attack as Senator of New York, leave me wondering what it is about a moderately successful military professional that pops the heads of the libs.
Libs don't like straight-laced square authority figures like children resist parental or school authority or like young toughs disrespect "cops". They're horrified by figures representing of sober self-restraint and denial of pleasure in favor of a longer term reward. Immediate gratification is the goal. In just about every endeavor of life, the conservative perspective offers more individual freedom except in matters of drugging oneself in damaging ways, gratifying sexual drives irresponsibly, or general personal irresponsibility. In every other field of human endeavor the conservative perspective is more liberating than the oxymoronically names "liberal" one. Very naturally liberals find representatives of self-restraint, and self discipline horrifiying, and so we get these frothing nutjob paranoid attacks against such figures.
Saaaaay whatever happened to the "heavily armed couple" arrested at MacDill AFB story?
One was reported to be an awol soldier trying to get back on base.
Don't drink the Kool-aid Ty... we needed a reason to stop to the Japanese from evicting us...
Happenstance?
http://www.counterpunch.com/bulard06182010.html
And one hell of a lot of unanswered questions, sequestered sailors and altered timelines from a member of the South Korean investigation team.
Surely you are familiar with the State of the art ASW base we have right on the island where this happened... and a joint military exercise occurring at precisely the same time? And the N.K. sub escaped? Come on. The marines were just completing the laying of fresh mines... and the first call distress call from the captain was "grounded". Both indisputable Facts. The mines are laid in shallow waters BTW.
http://www.seoprise.com/~bu/dk/Letter_to_Hillary_Clinton_US_Secretary_of_State.pdf
Surely you must be smelling something fishy... hmmm?
I will believe Bernanke before I believe that line.
Not sure what to make of that leaked letter.
But I would suggest that the Japanese just evict the US and build their own nuclear weapons. The nuclear shield is an anachronism. It's not like the Japanese are fucking retarded. Even the fucking Pakistanis have nukes.
A few physics grad students can slap together a basic device. The US defense establishment is a helluvalot less relevant than it imagines that it is. They're cold war relics. Their BRAINS are cold war relics. Put the whole fucking tribe out to pasture.
The letter does have inconsistencies and flaws in analysis... I admit that. But the facts remain the facts and they are troubling. What was the Chenoan doing off course in shallow water anyway... clearly it has grounded before just look at the markings on the hull. We know they can't drive well but this is ridiculus in an age of GPS. The timeline and radio records suggest it grounded in very shallow water (for the boat not NK subs) where the mines were laid and as it freed itself it strayed over a rising mine.
Dunno. A lot of South Koreans are total meat-heads. I lack the expertise to evaluate the claims in the letter.
Why wouldn't Kim-Jong yell out "False flag" if he knew that his forces weren't responsible? Maybe he's just as in the dark as anyone else, and wouldn't claim otherwise for fear that his own forces are acting independently.
There's a lot that's strange about the whole event. Particularly the muted US response immediately following the attack. If the US was not in Afghanistan and Iraq, it might've meant war.
The boat was surely grounded as distress call records and the condition of the hull suggests. The 9:15 (?) radio call is on the official record and says as much. Undeniable fact!
The procedure was then to reverse the engines full astern to get off. The boat then dislodges and drifts over a very newly installed rising mine. Kabloom. Time is now 9:35 or so.
Looking at the hull suggests grounding is common. When they reversed they drifted over a state of the art and the newly planted rising mine. Kabloom. The ships stern section engines still running full astern as it splits and sinks hitting the bottom quickly bending the props forward as evidenced by the recovery photos.
The Koreans officially state it was NOT a NK attack. Then comes Hillary with the new story line to help the Japanese make the right choice.
Rahm Emmanuel : Never let a good crisis go to waste. Story closed.
North Koreans and Chinese both call bullshit on the report. China is with NK on this one. Let's nuke China too then!
This country needs better news sources.
Makes sense to me. You could just call it an accident, puffed up by the administration.
Hey, this sounds like a job for a leaker in CIA or State. No worries, dudes, as long as you don't get into a homoerotic relationship with a stoolie hacker type.
Yup.... I followed this one from the beginning when the official line was a definitive NO North Korean attack. Then along comes Hillary. I'm not saying it was an intentional false flag... I'm just saying they took a play out of Rahms playbook and put a tragedy to good use.
The timing stunk... and they scrubbed the internet of most initial accounts check it out try to find one. Just like 'ClimateGate' links were initially removed. (I even commented on that on a consistant basis right here as it was occuring... I was going nuts!)
When lucky stars keep lining up for the Pentagon boys take a closer look see.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/nll.htm
Oh... and by the way? You can't seriously think the Palestinians have nukes do you?
Finally someone who "gets it". Navy Seals took out the ship. Simple. We had to keep the Corps in Okinawa.
Jesus, will this never end. We sunk the ship. Torn its mother fucking ass in half; without touching it. Nk knows it, China knows it, SK knows it, USA knows it.
Hell South Korea even admitted it could not have been N.K. initially... until Hillary told them to get the fuck on board with the 'new message' aimed at the Japanese.
Speaking of Hillary disasters seem to follow (or precede) her everywhere.
Back in November the South Koreans raked the crap out of a North Korean patrol vessel a week before she arrived to meet with SK leaders to discuss guess what? Right! Several NK's dead many wounded. it was the first naval incident in seven fucking years.
Seven fucking years of quiet during years including Bush and Cheney and then whammo!
She is an Angel of Death that one!
I just got censored. I have been writing here since March 2009, and my response was rejected as, Not allowed to respond to this site.>
Happens to me to... we must be nutters!
Honda China workers appear ready to accept pay deal
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65G1OH20100619
Fascinating post here, geopol, Apostate, and ZerO.
So, what do we have here in America now, 2 dominant factions?:
1) Warlike neocons (links to Wall St.)
2) Brzerzinski / Kissinger / Obama / Clintons (links to Wall St.)
+ 1000
For thought provoking discussion, wish I had your sources of info.
That's an oversimplification.
I strongly doubt that many in the military still have loyalty to the Neocons. Active duty military or recent vets are welcome to contradict me on that point.
The foreign policy establishment have questionable levels of influence. I think it ought to be well-understood by business in these days that, in the long run, it rarely pays to use foreign policy hit squad. Only particularly craven war-whore companies have a stake in the continuance of the M-I complex.
I should say that the Obama/Clinton team has been neutralized. There is no way for them to recover from this mess.
Wall Street has been caught flat-footed. As my father told me when I was maybe five years old when I asked him why his firm never advertised on television - "If ordinary people knew what we [Goldman Sachs] did, there'd be a revolution."
That would've been in 1991, for reference.
Now they know!
Goldman has no real PR plan because for years they were a tiny partnership. Now they are gigantic in terms of manpower and global reach, but the leadership still sees itself as a tiny group. It's like the Illuminati decided to expand like Wal-Mart, and then figured that they'd be able to continue to operate in confidence.
Their PR is institutional PR. And now institutions are becoming weaker and more vulnerable to disruption than ever before.
Most institutions are being caught off-guard by the reality of a fully unregulated media system. Can you imagine doing business in the 1950s, when there were only a few heavily censored TV stations, a small number of national periodicals, and then various regional newspapers? It was very easy to preach to people from the top-down.
Now, that approach is impossible to continue.
Even the lauded Emperor Obama, with his famed online campaign strategy, failed to understand that the web is a push-pull medium. It can still be used effectively for push-marketing, but in order to fully master its potential, you have to listen as well as dictate.
Goldman Sachs has been proven to be an easily-tarnished brand. Once its operations were exposed to the public, it corroded in a matter of a couple years.
The US Government has been subjected to a steady erosion of brand equity for decades. The media has become more expensive and challenging to control. The communications tools that used to be only available to the very wealthy or the military are now in the hands of African goat herders.
Mind you, I put no faith in the "singularity" or other end-times beliefs. But the technology has spread and scaled to the point at which institutions predicated on information control have less time to survive.
Can you imagine the consternation within the State Department and CIA right now? The very tools that they've used to promote "color" revolutions in Iran, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia are now being deployed with increasing sophistication against its own apparatus of control - often by aggressive factions of the government itself (See: SEIU).
The SEC, for example, is much less of an actual enforcement agency than it is a regime of speech control and press management. If a corporate leader makes problems for the regime or refuses to play ball, the regulatory machine can slap the insubordinate into submission. It also causes fear and compliance, as disgruntled employees can easily find evidence of some kind of code violation to leak to the regulators.
There are more factions than can be counted anymore.
I promise you that the Bilderbergers are just as confused, overwhelmed, and petrified as the rest of the ruling factions. They must be grasping for allegiences, and are finding fewer and fewer. Some of their most trusted henchmen - Mr. Greenspan, for one - are adding fuel to the fire.
Just as Mr. Buffet must be scared... filling his diapers... as the municipalities are poised to go bankrupt. BRK will follow them down the hole. The legacy that he hoped to leave will turn to ashes.
Mr. Gates' philanthropic foundation has increasingly been exposed by even reputable academic sources as a debacle. His sham marriage may even be under strain! How amusing.
Other oligarchs are profoundly threatened by the state of affairs, of course. You have to know that the madness of monetarism is as difficult to root out of a human mind as religious fanaticism.
Many really believe that all is well. The intellectual dilution of the ruling class is almost as complete as it is among typical lower-class idiots.
In fact, it's easier to teach someone from the lower classes than it is to awaken the wealthy - who already believe that they are among the "elect" in a Calvinist sense.
Who else here went to a so-called "elite" school, in which they were endlessly told that they were a superior breed destined to rule the world? Few work very hard or explore very far when they believe that they are already among the best and brightest.
It brings to mind the latter days of the British Empire, as the ruling class - which had become so lazy and stupid due to the many years of living by looting - was annihilated.
The slave morality espoused by the econo-priest Keynes has infected the minds of the rulers themselves. As such, they are working assiduously - without fully understanding it - to destroy themselves.
So much for the supermen!
"But the technology has spread and scaled to the point at which institutions predicated on information control have less time to survive."
Interesting comments. I'm sure you're aware that increased information doesn't necessarily lead to increased knowledge. The many will still need to have their information interpreted for them by the few. It's just that now there will be many mini-kingdoms where there used to be a few major kingdoms. But will the ultimate need for forming alliances among the mini-kingdoms lead us back to the point of a few major kingdoms? History seems to suggest that this will happen. Span of control, and all that, as new kingdoms form.
The monolithic nature of those kingdoms was always a bit of an illusion. It's just that the technology of the 20th century favored the centralization of power within nation-states.
Now, power of all kinds is decentralizing at a faster rate than has been generally anticipated.
You good sir are Brilliant!
And correct... the fear will be growing... they surely must sense the growing unease (if not ammo sales) and the illusion machine is now working against their interests.
They are in fact cowards. The Powers That Be will turn into the Powers That Flee... we will see that day.
extremely well said apo...
oilprice.com is worse than unreliable, they are selling this site a penny.
The two consecutive sunny policy Presidents both died in 2009, one by organ meltdown and the other by suicide. South Korean Presidents tend to be found guilty and get sentenced to death sentences after leaving office ever since the state came into being. Lee, the one who overturned the sunny policy is up for re-election and was behind in popularity pre-Cheonan. The prosecutor who was after the last ex-President resigned after his death amid mass protest. The Japanese PM resigned after he couldn't deliver on his electoral promise of kicking uncle sam out of Okinawa.
The Russians just completed their independent Cheonan inspection and have handed their report back to base. Medvedev saying an "unbiased" logical review of evidence is required. A coded support of the North. Russia has just moved its two most potent warships into waters off Japan on exercises.
Lee announced mass restructure of the South Korean military post Cheonan taking out many senior figures. Dissent or claimed incompetence we don't know yet.
China shot at some North Koreans near the border a week or so ago.
The South Korean chaebol has been the largest foeign beneficiaries of the Chinese post GFC stimulus.
The South Koreans stood down on their loudpseakers pumping propaganda across the demilitarized when the north threatened to attack them specifically.
To paraphrase non aligned military blogs. The survivability of the supposed found remnant torpedoe is widely held as non feasible. The nominal Cheonan hull damage doesn't match that torpedoe type or any other full scale one in service. Most are talking about a mine, one examiner dissenter about bubbles off a passing torpedoe. That island is said to be alive with ASW capability that the North can't counter. Brinkmanship by patrol boats in the separate disputed waters last year was initiated and hammered in by the South Koreans. There was previous hull damage in the same hull area to Cheonan in the last major naval conflict. Much chatter on the nature of the US South Korean exercises. Much talk about why two US warships lingered days after exercises needlessly and why the mine recovery vessel also remained on station.
Another brilliant analysis... goddamn you guys rule!
Let's not forget the "number one" conveniently and very visably inscribed in marker on the torpedo component. A component clearly not in requirement of identification BTW. The South Korean (not N.K.) common usage of the word was used and there was also the rust issue to contend with.
Very sloppy work indeed.
Again, I salute you guys, perhaps the best thread I have ever read here at ZH.
+ 10,000
EURO bullish signals I warned of during the past few weeks - has resulted in the recent rally and the daily chart remains bullish.
The DOW/SP500 counter trend rally suggested on June 13 continues, however ...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/about
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/LF04Dg02.html
False Flag Attack, simple and plain. Too much evidence indicating it as such, and, as always, one must ask, "who ultimately benefits"?
That report looks about right. The South Korean election and military dissent is to be watched closely.
DOW chart update :
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1