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Guest Post: The Big Dead-Cat Bounce
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Awesome. An ad for another conference. How helpful.
You may need to turn off your ad-blocking software....I have to in order to see the Scribd pages.
Question:
If you wanted to make $250 Million per year, how would you do it?
a.) Invest residual cash (left over from W-2 earnings minus living expenses) into the stock market under the buy-and-hold long-term philosophy (i.e. passive investing).
b.) Become an active trader - (i.e. activing investing).
c.) Publish and sell information about both passive and active investing (i.e. marketing)?
Answer:
If you said,'C', then you agree with Bill Bonner, the founder of Agora Financial Publishing (He's one of the speakers at the Casey Research seminar mentioned above. Casey Research also contributes to Bonner's activities as well). And Bonner's publishing company is rumored to make $250 Million per year. He is also widely considered the #1 publisher of financial information in the United States (and you may have never heard of him).
The point:
First, the advertisement has some decent content, so I believe Horning has sufficiently 'earned the right' to pitch the seminar at the end of the article.
Second, (and this may be pure tin-foil) since Agora Publishing is known as the top financial publisher in the US, then perhaps ZH is promoting this seminar here in the hopes of generating enough goodwill with Agora so that Agora will help out ZH, or the ZH staff, in some way at some point in the future. (Perhaps there is even an affiliate id fairly embedded in the link, so that ZH gets a comission currently from any sales generated by this post...and they're testing to see how many readers of ZH will convert to buyers of other information.) And with almost 500,000 visitors per month (according to quantcast), ZH has built themselves quite a unique list of rabid readers--one that would have any sane information marketer foaming at the mouth.
In any event, I don't see this as a problem per se. ZH, like any capitalist-minded publishing enterprise, should be interested in turning a profit (there's nothing wrong with rational self-interest). It's just that posts like this just don't carry the same information impact as some of the other content provided here, like all the explosive Lehman articles. Of course, readers here would rather have all of the content (the problem plus the solution) presented here without having to go to a seminar.
This is not criticism, just some feedback. Keep up the good work Tyler et. al.
Agora? $250M per year? LOL.
That number is beyond silly.
I highly suggest you back into that number by calculating the number of subscribers that this would require.
..at which point you will very swiftly reach the conclusion that your $250M figure has clearly been pulled out of someones ass.
First, thank you for your opinion. I think it is great when someone calls out someone else when their numbers sound like B.S. That's what this site is all about. Skepticism, if widely-adopted, is the only thing that will save America.
Second, I admitted it was only a rumor, and that there is no evidence to speak of.
But, if you are wondering, the source is Rich Schefren, a purveyor of information marketing how-to material. The excerpt is from his Manifesto report, one of his many free reports he distributes in hopes you will eventually buy one of his higher priced items (which I have not).
An excerpt from his report:
"...Last week I [Rich Schefren] spent a few days with Agora Publishing (the 250 million
dollar a year Info-marketing powerhouse) planning a new project which I will be telling
you about a little later in this Manifesto. When I walked into their offices I was invited
to sit in on a meeting that was already in progress. The meeting had five of their top
people strategizing their marketing plan of attack for the next two weeks in a highly
competitive niche. The plan was simple yet powerful; it played to their strengths, and
will likely put a few of the smaller players who are currently marketing in that niche
out of business. I was relieved that I was not operating in that particular segment..."
Who knows if the numbers are B.S. But, if someone out there does know Agora's real top line revenue number, then please share if you would like. It would help resolve the debate.
Yes, their is an affiliate link. They might as well get paid for any referrals.
Agreed.
Maybe unintentionally, but the tip to read Kevin Rogoff's book was a useful, I've already Amazoned it!
One of the best terse summaries that I have read about where we are at.
just finishing Rogoff's book now... a very nice historical perspective.
p.s. we are phucked.
November.
And how is electing Republicans going to make any difference? They were the guys who approved 100-1 leverage in the investment banks and deregulated the banking system (including no oversight on CDSes).
Yes, Repubs spent like drunken sailors.
But Dems spend like a fleet of drunken sailors.
So
1) Repubs are bad but perhaps less bad (unless you consume the MSM koolaid, in which case Repubs are eeevillll, more than Hitler. yawn)
2) Divided gov't is better than what we have
3) Showing outrage at in the voting booths gets noticed by both parties and encourages citizens to take the next step.
It has nothing to do with being a drunken sailor. What is need is perp walks followed by successful, convictions and long prison terms.
It has everything to do with the Federal "Free kegs-o-whiskey" Reserve.
As the famous Bill Bonner once remarked, drunken sailors spend their own money.
Uh huh
750 gold. I'll take the other side of that trade. See what kind of moron you look like in another month.
What "leading indicators" are you talking about???? If you look across the board, all you see in economic terms is bad news. It is all dressed up as "better than expected" or number analysis just made up. I think this attachment is great, and it confirms what I and others see, the market is insane and not based on any rationality, therefore it is currently a casino.
No, there is no defending this market, and please do not give the the line "the economy and the market are different things". While that is true, the market does reflect the economy, as did all the crashes, and all the rises. In our situation there is NOTHING to say we are recovering except the lies that are repeated endlessly.
I believe fully that when this market tanks, people will have violence visited upon them, rithgly or wrongly, they crazies and those that have lost everything and who can no longer cope will seek out relief and act out. I would not want to be a CNBC commentator that has been dry humping the pumper/dumper market with rosey analysis of "green shoots". Teell the person that cannot fid his family because of all the unemployment that there are green shoots. I DARE YOU!
Funny that this site in the form of "Fight Club", may actually reflect where we are actually heading. It may be the "in" thing to act out and to go beat someone's head in the dirt, instead of "blogging how bad/good everything" is.
So for you statment that the "leading indicators", he dollar will rise as the EUR weakens, we and other countries are swimming in debt that can never be repaid with our current valued and future valued fiat currency, there is simultaneous risk of deflation/inflation, the UE rate is high and ther are no jobs being created at the rate we need as we are still losing,......
well, hell, just read the attachment.
Leading indicators my ass.
I suggest you guys go back to economics 101
it appears that you never got past econ 101. it appears that you never took any history courses as well.
"I suggest you guys go back to economics 101.
-BBH"
Funny! "Economists say!!!" Boy, none of them are EVER wrong, huh? ('specially the ones on cnbc!) Never mind that we need to grow the economy by over 100k jobs PER MONTH just to absorb the natural growth of the workforce - without even denting the current inventory of unemployed. 8%??? And where are we going to get the 400k+ jobs per month to get to that number? Never mind that KC is getting ready to close half their schools and Toyota is getting ready to close the Nummi plant in N. Caliwonderful. Of course, your ECON101 prolly explained how all job losses have a ripple effect in the economy with anywhere from a 3-7x multiplier... 8% indeed.
Let's see... you seem to like 2nd derivatives (But it's getting worse more slowly!!! lol) so why not with ISM as well? Or don't you count recent trend reversals?
New orders? Didn't your ECON101 tell you about ripple effects from inventory restocking either - especially around such typical durable high tides like the Christmas season? Not that any debt-conscious, inflation-wary consumers (you know, the ones still employed...) would ever take advantage of fire-sale prices before the final destruction of the $... Nah! We don't need no stinking context!
Or steep yield curves. From what buyers? 'Nuff said.
Temp hiring??? Oooohhh! There's a flag! *yawn* Call me when the temp hiring boom doesn't coincide with the holidays and the upcoming census, k?
But, hey, it's all getting worse more slowly!!! 2nd derivatives on the launch pad!!! Yowzer, call cnbc! Oh, woops! Blue hair moment! They already know! Been pumping that tune ad nauseum since the coronation - er - inauguration.
Wake up, bbh, smell the coffee. Pump & dump don't work over here and we're not interested in subsidizing your lack of golfing skills, either.
Here's an idea! Get a handle and read some of the enlightened posters over here before rattling your penny can. You might learn something!
Just a thought!
Good stuff. +100.
"...Stinking Context..."
Love it.
There aren't any.
BBH,
Your point about the leading indicator is head on. Anybody, who watched the leading indicator would have played the game perfectly till now. BTW, the leadinig indicator peaked in October and has been going down since then. The rate of fall indicates that it will turn inegative sometime in the next 2 months. Expect the market to keep going up till then and probably make a new high by then.
Expect some correction after that. The economy will slow down in the later half but no recession at least until the 3rd qtr.
For all talks of deflation, the Future Inflation gauge has been an uptrend and has seen a little drop in feb. Don't expect any sharp correction in commodities in the next 2 months. Will have to keep watching the indicator for future direction.
novice
ahahahahaha! bahahahahaha! ooh...ohhh...(catching breath)....BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Uh...thats what economists say about past data on past inventory based recessions back when Consumer, corporate and government debt was at an historical steady 150 of gdp or lower...not a credit mechainism free fall collapse when total debt before contingent liabilities is at 350% and growing.
Whats more, your SPX company result was achieved while companies achieved the highest debt to asset ratio and the lowest debt to cash ratios they have in history...basically turning the S&P 500 into a collective junk bond rated cash flow (Capital IQ) even though the quarterly reports show earnings growth. Maybe in Econ 201 one learns that its how the companies achieved the results...not the prima facie data that counts most.
Lastly, just answer one question and one questions only:
In a nation where 73% of the economy is based on consumer purchases, what data tells you that more are working than last month? more are working longer than last month? or more are earning more per hour than last month? or more have more credit to spend than they did last month and the month and years before?
When you can tell us how the consumers capacity to spend is going to increase...you can insist that employment is a lagging indicator in this type of situation...and then you can lecture the rest of us on Econ 101 when you have not passed common sense look around you 101.
Further, you can that start to notice things like the downward correction on January's retail sales estimate that otherwise would have left the government explaining that retail sales for February went down compared to the previously announced January number.
Or you can note that actual tax collections continue to go down while estimates based on surveys promise growth.
I do not know that anyone should be quoting Econ 101 in this situation...mainly because it has no accurate precedents and mainly because it is a political issue perhaps even more than a financial system issue...much less a pristine labratory where economic conclusions are possible. imho
I would add that one might want to take at a historical look at the world's bank crises over the past several hundred years and read about the patterns that have emerged from them. i would note to pay very close attention to those bank crises that are "minor" (the majority) and those that are "major" and well as those that are regional or global.
Nobody has disputed that we have a "major" bank crises. Nobody has disputed that we have a global bank crises. History is pretty clear as to the outcomes and approximate time frames. this time is not different.
Thanks for the advice deadhead.
I more nearly wanted to invoke the idea that there are enough unique aspects to this situation that an open mind to its unique qualities is a better place to start from than assigning it a "slot" next to the history of how other far different circumstances and people managed through the process.
Anyway, a sense of the causal loops likley to come would not have anyone claiming recovery too confidently right now
Everyman, you may have had a good submission, there. I don't know.
You can't depend on spell check for everything. Sometimes you have to actually read your own stuff.
Check it out. Your piece doesn't read well, at all. I'm not really sure what your point is, or if I would even agree with it.
Come on, people. Let's take a little pride in our work. This is Zero Hedge, not Market Watch.
Everyman, you may have had a good submission, there. I don't know.
You can't depend on spell check for everything. Sometimes you have to actually read your own stuff.
Check it out. Your piece doesn't read well, at all. I'm not really sure what your point is, or if I would even agree with it.
Come on, people. Let's take a little pride in our work. This is Zero Hedge, not Market Watch.
You are accepting the BS that the Commerce, Fed, UST, and BLS put out in terms of numbers and you are having problems with a couple of mispelled words.
You can't be serious.
If you cannot read despite some typos, you are an ignorant arse.
If you cannot understand what I posted, or the point, you simply do not want to.
Not my problem asshole!
"Sadly, Mr. Man, it IS your problem. Illiteracy is curable."
Maybe so, but pomposity, arrogance and generally being an elitist asshole seems to be permanent, as in your case.
So what is worse, typos,...
or personal attacks?
Guess you learned all you needed from Alinsky. Don't worry about substance, just attack on whatever you can.
i agree with everyman. There are forests and there are trees.
We each live in our own bubble dont we?
A chance again to sell the S&P again at 1,500.00 AND be able to buy gold again at $750.00? Wow. You have me salivating. I hope you're correct.
So this guy suggest the Governmint will try to hyper inflate its way out of the debt. I wonder if the genius Doug Horning had thought this through well enough. As soon as the G begins to print like crazy, interest rates zoom up, bonds collapse, and we have a deflation. The economy will crumble and the government will fall before the printing even begins, not to mention that it is not even practical and feasible to print this much currency in time short enough to cause a hyper inflation in an economy with rampant overcapacity in goods and services. But more importantly - money is power. And does Mr. Hornig honestly believe that Governmint or the FED want to devalue their power, i.e. lose control of it. Has Mr. Horning thought of what will happen when the grannies see their fixed income SS payments evaporate? Do they reach for the shot gun or what? And what about maintaining those 600K troops in 130 countries. When we hyper inflate, what will happen to all the puppet regimes that those troops prop up? Ah, what we have is a bubble of hyper dreamers, who like to think of themselves as economists, but they really are not.
"Ah, what we have is a bubble of hyper dreamers, who like to think of themselves as economists, but they really are not."
Your own company excepted, of course...
I got news for you, the printing has already begun:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H6/hist/h6hist1.txt
I agree that Mr. Casey is definitely hawking his product, but a couple of thoughts:
My thought process is this: what's to prevent the Fed from taking trillions more in toxic assets on it's books (because no one else will take on the risk and the credit markets are frozen) to ensure that the Federal government can sell it's debt? And after that has happened, what happens when someone goes through the books and realizes that there's too much junk and they have to take a severe haircut?
Considering the Fed wont let anyone audit their books properly, when the day of reckoning comes, this will likely be a flame-out, not something that anyone could see coming with a high degree of certianty.
This is going to cause a major ruckus in the international financial markets, as the US currency will be revealed to have been backed in large part by junk.
This, IMHO, is a more probable scenario to be worried about.
So maybe that’s when we’ll get the dead cat bounce to DOW 23,680,000 million in dollars that are worthless – like Germany in 1923 In the meantime, an index of German share prices (1913 = 100) rose from 126 in January 1918 to 531,300,000 in September 1923, and to 23,680,000 million in November 1923 amidst extremely high volatility. (In dollar terms, because of the currency depreciation, the same index (1913 = 100) fell from 101.55 in January 1918 to 2.72 in October 1922, before recovering to 39.36 in November 1923.)
I'm not going to argue about inflation or deflation, but printing currency today consists of altering bits on a hard drive. It is very easy to print lots of currency instantaneously. Append a zero to a number and you have 10x the fiat.
Well, as we all know hyperinflation is every heavily indebtedt american house loan owner's wet dream.
But in regards to your "10X" printing comment, would you please describe in detail the step by step process of how the FED delivers that money to the accounts of hundreds of millions of depositors so they can run and spend it in the stores and cause the prices to hyper go up.
Step by step:
1. The Fed buys treasuries, and the government uses the Fed's printed $ to pass out rebates for solar installations, money to the states for road work, money to the states for unemployment checks, paychecks to over a million census workers and so on.
2. The Fed buys MBS, which allows a bunch of insolvent banks to keep paying employees with printed $, plus keeps a lot of bondholders and shareholders from experiencing their actual losses. The money in the hands of these bondholders and shareholders is printed $.
3. All of this printed money is thus now in the hands of the public and various investors, and is being used to drive up the cost of anything that is not in as great oversupply as houses.
We had $2 Trillion outstanding credit contraction last year despite all of this. This is a plan to cause deflation, not inflation.
And our goobermint decided to run a deficit that will likely be over two trillion. Coincidence? I think not.
Hyperinflation, or just plain old high inflation, is possible if everyone gets some of the newly printed money. However, inflation is also possible if just a few oligarch looters get nearly all of the newly printed money. Things will look a bit difference if not too many Joe Six Packs get a ticket on the inflation rocketship. Banana Republics R us.
“Leading indicator“? Right…
What was Nasdaq 5,000+ indicating in 2000?
What was the 80% decline in the Nasdaq from 2000 to 2002 indicating?
What was the (bear market) 105% advance from 2002 to 2007 indicating?
What were the all-time highs (in the Dow and S&P) in 2007 indicating?
What was the (bear market) 70% advance in 1970 indicating?
What was the (bear market) 80% advance in 1974 indicating?
What was Black Monday in 1987 indicating?
Why have the 12 biggest upside days in market history all occurred during bear markets?
Ever heard the saying, “The market has predicted 7 out of the last 3 recoveries.”?
The point: Markets go up; markets go down. That’s what they do. They don’t need a reason, and they don’t care what anybody ‘thinks‘. The stock market is stupid, and doesn’t predict shit. What is the bond market predicting? What is the real estate market predicting? What are the PM’s predicting? What are Chinese fortune cookies predicting?
The other ridiculous saying (“conventional wisdom”) is that “You can’t fight the Fed”. We just had the worst bear market since 1929, all while the Fed was throwing everything but the kitchen sink to keep it afloat.
The stock market is stupid
Clearly in the running for top 10 post of the year.
That's funny . . . You can't teach that shit.
to Anon 264743.
YOU CAN'T FIGHT THE FED in the SHORT RUN. After a decade of penalizing U.S. savers and rewarding profligate consumption, hiding losses on assets, and turning the U.S. from the largest creditor nation to the largest debtor nation, the FED HAS NEUTERED ITSELF.
The fed can continue printing money against the tide of contraction or they can raise rates. It is too late for a painless outcome.
The necessary asset writedowns, individually and as a nation, will now have to be down without a financial backstop, since our dry powder was gifted to the crooked clowns in New York and Washington. They have broken the back of the once proud and productive American Middle Class.
IN THE LONG RUN, THE FED IS DEAD.
just a heads up for march economic numbers....we are having some high winds (so far, no snow to destroy the "nascent recovery" but there is some rain which could turn to snow if it gets colder, thereby precipitating (pun intended) a sharp decline in employment and GDP) in the Northeast US with scattered power outages. This could have a devastating impact on retail sales for March....stay tuned.
Deadhead,
I can appreciate that the inclement weather of February in the Northeast probably affected - to some extent - employment and retail numbers. However, I think attributing bad March numbers to this rain storm is a bit far-fetched.
Have you caught any Further shows? I was at Radio City the other week...fun show.
264780....i was being sarcastic on the rain storm; apologies that it didn't come through well enough....it is meant to be a takeoff on the recent "snow" hyperdriven propaganda of the past few weeks.
didn't jump on the Furthur bus this time around....i went to so many ratdog shows over the past 5 years (spent a couple of days backstage at radio city when r.d. played there a couple years back....i'm good friends with someone in the band). might catch some of the summer shows, just haven't decided. Glad you had fun!
i think i'm at this stage of life now:
Truckin', I'm a goin' home. Whoa whoa baby, back where I belong,
Back home, sit down and patch my bones, and get back truckin' on.
Haha apologies for not picking up on the sarcasm...yesterday was my first visit to zero hedge (which I cannot believe), so not familiar with any posters. I am definitely with you though on the snow/CNBC propaganda.
Bobby and Phil played pretty well with the DSO guys and I was impressed. I'm too young to have ever caught a GD show, but have seen many shows of the post-Jerry dealings of band members. Who is your buddy in Ratdog, if you don't mind me asking?
I think this "and get back truckin' on" entails a couple Furthur shows this summer.
Lots of rain with high winds here in the south also. Chance of snow showers tonight and tomorrow. So clearly this will knock 150,000+ jobs off the next NFP and at least 4% off reatail sales. But the recovery is well under, the recession is over and the pent up demand of them determined American consumers will power us out of this mess and give us strong growth with a bright future. We are strongly bullish and think the dow could hit 15,000 by the end of the year, we think people should stay away from that barbaric metal gold and buy buy buy stocks. You're welcome. </CNBC>
I acutally wouldn't be suprised if you heard this on CNBS monday.
But yeah, we are phucked. Gold bitches!
We've had some Fog in the west which may slow down retail customer's arrival to the malls this month. Also, the surf has kicked up quite a bit from recent Tsunami warnings which may have also delayed "real" potential consumer spending. You know how much pent up demand those surfers walk around with.
You know how much pent up demand those surfers walk around with.
Is that why the front of their shorts have such funny designs?
...and we have morons in Washington that believe they need to throw more money faster out the window.
Future summary:Crater, smoking.
The recent Lehman revelations are just another candle of doom for the wasteland that used to be the robust US economy...until we exported all production to slave labor/enviro-destructive locales.
Happy Days are not ahead.
The Chinese get to cope with massive pollution.IE: Water to drink...not so much.
The Americans get to cope with massive criminality/corruption/fascism.
I want a better future.One not based on screwing other people so I can live like King Solomon.I want a government that punishes evildoers, and does not sleep with them.
I must be delusional.
Your screen name describes you perfectly. You put a black swan up as your avatar and you don't even know what a black swan is. Monday is not critical. No day is critical. If you actually read Taleb, you'd understand that, but you're too busy jerking off (and proud of it, apparently) to understand that. Good Lord, what has happened to zero hedge. Got to find a new place to play. The jerk offs have taken over here. Yeah, I'm talking about you Master Bater.
As much as I respect your views MB (especially your stance on the gold market) I can't imagine it all comes down to one day's trading action. If someone was able to set that close on Friday then they could just as easily set one Monday that could be perceived as unfavourable to stock bears. Frankly if the power to manipulate stock indexes is sufficient to achieve results to within one hundredth of a point no one in their right mind should be anywhere near these markets. You would be better off in a casino where at least you know the odds and are not at the mercy of the collective emotions of millions who are prepared to fight or flee on the turn of a dime.
....heard this for ump'teenth time now. Result - nothing burger.
Technical analysis. LOL.
It is enormously offensive and obscene to many of us who love animals, to see this horrid 'dead cat bounce' phrase.
Even if ZH includes documents from others using this ugly locution, ZH should NEVER use such horrid and completely avoidable imagery.
Thanks for sharing, creampuff.
http://nathanielstern.com/blog/wp-content/adeadcat.jpg
sorry man, thats what its called.
The cat is already dead what is the problem?
Yes Tyler, why don't you take into consideration that Polly Prissypants might come down with a case of the vapors on being exposed to harsh words, you course brute.
Only if you care, in the least, about whether cats live or die.
Don't much like hyenas, vultures, Vampire squids, either.
Lady bugs and stink bugs drive me nuts.
If you're serious about this, I have only one thing to say:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
ROTFL
This is one of the best laughs I've had in months. Thanks!
--Boris
Dead Bankster Bounce.
I'm enormously offended that you're offended.
I bet you wear t-shirts with wolves and unicorns on them.
Millions of dead Iraqis, Af/Pakis, US soldiers, etc, and you are offended by this term. Get a fucking life!
The communist Mr Lendrix is back. Yeah, those "millions" of dead Iraqis are sure happy to vote. While their liberation has certainly pushed us towards financial collapse due to its cost, anyone who can argue that Iraq is not better off is an anti-American fanatic.
As for "Af/Pakis" (Iraqi, Af/Paki, well punk do you feel lucky?), they were either killed by their own or deserved to die because they were terrorists.
You sir, are a moron.
How convenient. Just like every dead Vietnamese villager was labeled "vietcong."
Millions of dead Iraqis, Af/Pakis, US soldiers, etc, and you are offended by this term. Get a fucking life!
http://www.catsforgold.com/
Actually, it's Schrodingers Cat, so we don't know if it's dead or alive.
Just don't open the box. It's like TBTF balance sheets: as long as you don't look, they're not dead.
"Actually, it's Schrodingers Cat, so we don't know if it's dead or alive."
I like that response! We don't know whether it bounced either.
That IS good stuff. As a hardcore behaviorist, I like it...
Did a cat get your toungue?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7MkQJuaOrc
lol, what a maroon. Just for this, I'm going to use the phrase 'dead cat bounce' much more often now.
Also I think I'll use the phrase 'can't swing a dead cat without hitting one' more often too.
Hopefully, you'll be here to see all of them.
Ate brazillian last night and had
churrasquinho de gato de MacBeth.
Tastes like rattlesnake to me...
I think we are beating a dead horse here.
Hardly! There's more than one way to skin a cat.
Would "Dead Capitalist Bounce" make you feel any better?
ok how about a dead mouse recovery?
living-challenged feline countermove?
Wall St. banker-jumping-from-the-45th-floor-and-landing-on-the-pavement-bounce?
Jump You Fuckers!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yge311sFhC8
New favorite song....thx.
How about if we include the phrase "No real dead cats were actually bounced in the production of this post."
I won't say it... no way, you can't make me... I won't...
In fact, I try real hard not to fuck with people who have skills with the bowstaff...
alright.. Maybe we could replace the title with the "MasterBatesBounce".
Nothing personal Bates...just teasing....CB
All those truly ridiculous acronym's aside, (LOL, IMHO, etc) this is funny. Laugh out loud funny. Hey, MB (I guess we are all guilty of using acronyms, in one fashion or another) you have to laugh at that. IT IS Funny.
I LIKE wit.
The doomsday prophets should consider 2 things:
Mortgage market can crash and burn without killing the economy with it. Gov't intervened to make it a slow decline instead of a rapid crash but the junk will have to get written off eventually. Yes, the investors and banks will hurt but thats what they deserve for being greedy/stupid. People will just downsize or rent and they will be able to do it on the cheap.
Unemployment is high due to transformation in the economy. We can produce the same amount of goods and satisfy the same amount of peoples' needs with half the employees of the 70's due to computers and machines becoming more efficient than humans in more and more areas.
Have you read the Unabomber manifesto? The day when sitting on the couch watching CNBC and not rioting will be all you need to do to feed yourself is rapidly approaching.
"Mortgage market can crash and burn without killing the economy with it. Gov't intervened to make it a slow decline instead of a rapid crash but the junk will have to get written off eventually."
Well it crashed last time and had 2 dips! Additionally your issue about getting the "junk off the books" they did not do that and lots of banks and criminals are holding MBS, and they oppose Mark to Market. Add in the fact that those MBS still exist, and are in a corporation, Fannie and Freddie, and they are loosing tons of money. That is the problem with people who think like you, this is not done, the trash still exists!!! IT is just that a majority of the trash was pawned off to the taxpayers and taken off a lot of the banks books.
"Unemployment is high due to transformation in the economy."
Transformation BS walks, we don't have the jobs we used to have because they have all been outsourced and sold oversees. The United States main export has been jobs and business out of the United States. While it is true we are more "productive" per unit hour, that is a strawman argument, because in this particular setting in an economy that is driven 75% by consumers, everybody needs a job for us to "go back" or to "recover".
Simply put the numbres do not add up. No matter how high the stock market goes, there will be correction to "reality based metrics" and not this BS stuff that passes for "auditing" and "accounting" whese days. Hell if I did this type of accounting or the auditor did this thyp of auditing we would be in JAIL!!!
That is the whole problem, individuals are not too big to fail, so they can be fleeced to pay for the insane risks of the "too big to fail" entities, that are not "individuals.
Right, it's like playing with a Hot Potato or perhaps in this case Falling Knives. I love when people come on this sight and infer we're crazy conspiracy theorists. I'm a true patriot myself and would certainly rather conform to the establishment "if" it was worthy.
Unfortunately, yes, "this time IS DIFFERENT" and thus we must take steps to protect what we have left and prepare for the Imminent Armageddon, yet again.
I'd like a hit off of you bong, because you are smoking some special stuff.
The FED has become the Repo 105 counter party for the entire financial system, except no one is buying the crap back. Government and banksters have taken the Repo part out of the equation.
I do agree that Chinese with slave labor and Globalist banksters and businessmen have conspired to make unemployment a terminal condition in the US. The last employment boom was completely tied to the housing bubble, we have no more domestic economic bubbles to fix the chronic unemployment. Boomers will continue to retire and bankrupting the entitlement systems of social security and medicare. Our young people will continue to be sent off to "protect" America in some far away hellhole Country, until we cannot afford to send them bullets or food.
The printing presses and government deficits are trying to make up for the worldwide consumer and business credit contraction, so far credit contraction is winning. This will end in a deflationary depression (not enough printing and credit) or hyperinflation (too much printing and credit). All we can do is prepare for the day of reckoning and wait.
you pessimist!
Correct, and it seems your bong has the right weed in it.
"The day when sitting on the couch watching CNBC and not rioting will be all you need to do to feed yourself is rapidly approaching."
Sweet dreams. People neither create nor give away fruits of their labor for nothing.
On the subject of fruit (and a stock market seemingly defying gravity) I am reminded of this Wallace Stevens quote I read recently in a Hussman article:
"Does ripe fruit never fall? Or do the boughs hang always heavy in that perfect sky?"
Of course they do not. They give them away for security stemming from preserving the status quo.
You got 2 choices:
1) give away 20% of your wealth to the underclasses to keep them from rioting and hanging you from the nearest telephone pole
2) keep 100% and hang
which one do you choose?
you've made an excellent point...one thats been kicking around my mind for a while.....we all know that over the last 40 years the distance between the rich and middle class has been increasing exponentially....when will the realization set in that in order to keep the ponzi going, the rich need to keep less, pay the middle and poor more so that more overall consumption can occur...when?
Good ideas.
Also, consider that Stephen Schwarzman took home over $700 million in compensation in 2009 (source: businesspundit.com).
He is at the top of a PE firm that owns a portfolio of companes. So he is like the CEO of a bunch of CEOs--the top of the top of a very big corporate business pyramid. Under each portfolio company's CEO is the rest of the C-level execs, then Vice Presidents, then middle management, then lower management, then senior worker bees and lastly the lower worker bees (i.e. the mailroom).
If the general, Schwarzman, brings home $700 million then what is left for all of the 'soldiers' who do all the heavy lifting? If the cash was food, the army would literally starve to death.
Compensation at this level clearly erodes the middle class, which is the class that actually does all of the work, spends the most money (in total), and keeps this economy going.
payola for giving up your liberty and future. It allows us to sell our selves out without being aware that we are complicit.
I would like to see a protest where we sing happy songs, wear flowers in our hair and toss gift cards and real paper money at the cops in their riot gear. I think i will bring some water for them, sure they thirst also. Free pepsis etc.
It would be a hell of a statement having all those dollars on the ground and us standing there smiling at the man in his battle gear. I will be sure to bring Mom and granny along too.
How are they gonna tear gas us if we are friendly?
If that dont work , next time granny brings her 12 gauge
Yes AND Yes.
The system is rigged. One can make up any story as you go. You might even hear "Divine providence is back from a hiatus" being used in conjunction with "Back from the brink". Who really cares when its fake.
The stock market is not a leading indicator. It usually trails, not always, but usually. You can easily verify this by looking at history. The government always manipulates as well. It's not new. Some of you conservatives ought to read Atlas Shrugged, the book you claim to love so much. Rand was talking about massive intervention 50 years ago and she was simply an author, not an economist. Galbraith's book on the Great Depression says as much. It's just a bounce. It has nothing to do with the economy, but it's going to run it's course until those who are convinced that this is a genuine recovery get fleeced. The only way to play it is not to play it at all and that's what the smart money seems to be doing, with volume that falls further every day. It's not hard to figure out, provided you can keep emotion out of it.
The stock market is not a leading indicator. It usually trails, not always, but usually. You can easily verify this by looking at history. The government always manipulates as well. It's not new. Some of you conservatives ought to read Atlas Shrugged, the book you claim to love so much. Rand was talking about massive intervention 50 years ago and she was simply an author, not an economist. Galbraith's book on the Great Depression says as much. It's just a bounce. It has nothing to do with the economy, but it's going to run it's course until those who are convinced that this is a genuine recovery get fleeced. The only way to play it is not to play it at all and that's what the smart money seems to be doing, with volume that falls further every day. It's not hard to figure out, provided you can keep emotion out of it.
There is no mystery about US financial markets:
- Flood of money created by the Treasury (and distributed by the FED and the government itself) had to go somewhere
- Stock markets cannot go to zero since there are many listed companies with a lot of real values (commodities, gold, agriculture, etc,) making a lot of money in any currency. The ownership of these companies cannot be given away for nothing. As for real estate prices? They will find its own bottom and then will grow in price with inflation.
- Just printing money without addressing the causes that brought the USA to the crisis will not solve anything but will delay and "quantitatively" worsen the situation. As for a "controlled" and peaceful transition to a new "world", it is just an impossible dream.
PS If one likes to see the American future, one must look at the collapse of Soviet Union and its follow-on pieces (the resulting Russia, Ukraine, etc.,). Well, welcome to a 3rd country reality.The 'money' is created by the Fed. It's printed by the Treasury, but on contract for the Fed. The Fed pays the Treasury a nominal fee for the paper.
The Fed then turns around and exchanges the 'money' (FRNs, promissory notes) for Treasury notes, as well as pumping it into other parts of the economy (MBS, banks, etc).
Maybe that mini-series on CBS was not far off. The name was:
Jericho.
http://biggovernment.com/dmitchell/2010/03/13/keynesian-economics-and-th...
CBO’s calculations are not based on actually observing the economy’s recent performance. Rather, they used an economic model that was programmed to assume that stimulus spending automatically creates jobs — thus guaranteeing their result. …The problem here is obvious. Once CBO decided to assume that every dollar of government spending increased GDP…, its conclusion that the stimulus saved jobs was pre-ordained.
OZ. Silver slippers. Big assed green balloon (Green Chutes). "Yellow" brick road. All in a "children's" book. Written by a man named Baum.....it all goes back to OZ.
Casey is showing its ignorance when he stipulates that "...in hyperinflation everyone loses..." of course that is not true as debtor do benefit at the expense of savers for example.
The book "Dying of Money" does explain this concept nicely.
social security armageddon is here - where is Bruce Krastig ?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100314/ap_on_bi_ge/us_social_security_ious
This is probably S.S.' last year in existence. Do not count on getting a dime.
oof. I'm pretty sure she wasn't trying to be ironic...
Last I looked the Dow was still 3400 away from its high of 14,000 back in 07. So those folks who were socking away for their retirement over the years, still have a big chuck of making up to do. You can bet their 401k's haven't gained back nearly as much as the current market bounce.
And what about the Nasdaq's high of 5000 back in 2000. Bring up a chart of the past 10 years of the Nasdaq and its not a very pretty picture.
How many of your bulls out there were bullish back then when the Nasdaq was dropping from 5000 back down to below 1000. That drop took almost three years to hit bottom. And look where its at today. Not even half of those loses have been made up. So keep boasting about how bullish the market. But try looking past the trees into the forest.
How can anyone in their right mind that sees the debt being build up accross this country, from the local townships, to citys to states to the government feel bullish. At some point, the government will have to end their pumping up of this market and when that happens the game is over.
Marc Farber says the S&P 500 is close to a 20% correction. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnSZkcPicEA
"How can anyone in their right mind that sees the debt being build up accross this country, from the local townships, to citys to states to the government feel bullish. At some point, the government will have to end their pumping up of this market and when that happens the game is over."
It's happening NOW, friend. Don't you see that? It cannot continue for much longer. The crash is soon...
B'berg article for today has the "snow death warning" theme resurrected
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahXNanuyijO8&pos=4
The same storms that saw unemployment hit new highs in CA and NV where the blizzards just raged.
yep.....
i enjoy seeing what tricks can be pulled out of the propaganda bag......here's one to watch...Obama (seemingly out of the blue) brings up "Education" in his weekly address blah, blah, blah. This is the tell that the play is in to get yet additional massive aid to the states and teacher's unions pronto.
Dark Helmut/HB, this one is for you.
http://www.catsforgold.com/
One need look no further than the Philly ADS for THE most current assessment of business conditions. Look at the chart. What do you see?
http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/
If I had a dollar for every Bearish chart I'd drawn and every bearish blog entry I have made since November then I'd have made more dollars than I have made trading with a bearish mindset. Anyways - I have drawn some more http://www.apartofny.com/2010/03/some-more-pointless-dji-charts/
These are cool. It looks like if you draw a downtrend line from the top of the first 3 charts it might look like there's a chance........
The mindset has be fundamental before you dive in like this. If you have that, then stay with it because maybe you will make a few extra dollars or Yuan.
nice charts....i still can only see a corrective zig zag up from march lows...of course, that is the bone of contention in some parts of chartland.
Kenny has excellent charts combining ew and classic ta...he's been doing it for years and he is a good source.
http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/
It is nice to take advantage of the bounce while it lasts. But use market timing signals to know when to exit and more importantly, when to get back in again at better prices.
time123
admin http://invetrics.com/?tag=invetrics-calls-the-bottom
The bullish USD weekly chart continues and DOW / SP500 / EURO daily charts give bearish warnings again.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
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