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Guest Post: Bubble Yum (Or Will Facebook Be The First Company To Hit A $1 Trillion Market Cap?)
Submitted by Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap
Bubble Yum
So a couple of months ago I went and got myself a subscription to The Economist, but I did it with airline miles, because I’m not going to pay hard dollars for that thing (I suppose some people say that about this publication, too). Well, maybe I should pay hard dollars for that thing, because I forgot how good of a contra-indicator they are. Most publications are good for only two contra-indicators a year, these guys give me a good one almost every week.
So two weeks ago they had on the cover (you have to watch for the covers, it’s hilarious) that there was some kind of tech bubble, and they were serious about it, really really serious about it, as if we don’t have enough problems with debt monetization already, now we have to throw an equity bubble on there, too? We are all just totally doomed.
Well, not so fast. I don’t share the opinion that we are in a tech bubble, not even close, I think that this is a legitimate investment boom, and I think it is going to be one of the biggest legitimate investment booms of all time. I’ve written bullishly on tech in the past, and it has taken me a while to hone my thesis, but it is getting sharper and sharper, and I think I have this thing sort of figured out.
So everyone had a grand old time punting around Linked In, and I don’t know Jeff Weiner from a hole in the ground, but that was very, very shrewd to go public in front of Facebook, because people want to get long social networking in a big, big way, big enough that they are willing to dork around with Linked In when Linked In really has nothing going for them in the long run. It is a poor man’s way to get long Facebook, especially since poor men cannot get long Facebook.
I’m going to pause for a public service announcement to all the class warriors out there--look, Facebook is going to go public at least $100 billion market cap, and that’s $98 billion that could have been made by all the punters running their hot dog stands, but instead, $98 billion was made by Richie Rich and his Richie Rich friends, and HOLY COW, $98 billion is a huge amount of money, it’s more than just about any tax code rejiggering you can do, you could have made a lot of middle class people very, very happy, and instead, the rich got richer. Sarbanes-Oxley has done more to perpetuate income inequality than any other law ever passed in the history of the United States.
Back to the story. We are trying to figure out if there is a tech bubble or not. There is not, and here’s why: people have no idea how big this social networking thing is. Linked In? LNKD is a sideshow. Even if Facebook goes public at $200 billion (which, at this rate, it might), it is still a buy.
I think it will be the first company to (legitimately) hit $1 trillion market cap.
You know what your problem is? You think too small. Go back in time to every technological advance. The phone. The TV. The internet. You could hold out for a long time, like lots of people are holding out on Facebook, but there comes a time where you just have to have it. And Facebook, at some point, is going to be more than just a social network, it is going to be some kind of online ID card that you have to have to shop or do anything on the web. It is going to put Paypal out of business, it is going to (I think) start handling money, just like they do, taking a vig.
You guys think way too small.
Remember The Social Network? Like, the movie? So Eduardo Saverin and Mark Zuckerberg are having lunch with Sean Parker, and this is a source of tension already because Eduardo wants to start charging for stuff, and Zuckerberg doesn’t, and--people don’t realize it, but that one creative difference was the most important decision that had to be made in Facebook’s early days--Eduardo was totally wrong and a threat to the company--if they charged for it, they would have killed it. Sean Parker nailed it. “We don’t even know what it is yet,” he said, “but what we do know is that it’s cool. And once you start charging for it, it’s not cool anymore.”
That’s the beauty of Facebook. They still don’t what it is. It’s just cool. And they’re going to put a twelve figure price tag on something that is nothing more than cool. But it’s not a bubble!
A company that is this important cannot be a bubble. Put on your tinfoil hat and think about why the government will never, ever let Facebook go out of business. There is an embedded put, and it has a very high strike. I hate talking about stuff like that, but a company that has intimate information (that people willingly put on there!) on every man, woman and child in the country is worth more (to somebody) than $100 billion.
You guys think way too small.
So yeah, this is part of the whole larger tech trade, you’re going to need better semis and better networking so people can plonk around on Facebook, and I have written before that we are in the middle of a legitimate tech investment boom, and you see what’s happening? You have all these people running around, telling you it’s a bubble, and what they don’t know is that you don’t get bubbles in the same thing ten years apart. People are not that stupid. You get them seventy years apart, because everyone dies and nobody reads history. So a lot of people are going to get talked out of some really fantastic trades because of Larry Summers and The Economist and everyone else who is hating tech. And I suppose that is too bad, but that is what you get for listening to Larry Summers and the Economist.
As for me, I’m pissed. I wanted to buy Facebook a long, long time ago. I would be rolling in dough right now. It would be the best trade of all time. Instead, I’m watching Richie Rich get rich (no, I am not Richie Rich), which really makes me angry. Did you know that there are 40% fewer publicly traded companies in the U.S. than when Sarbanes-Oxley was enacted? And we wonder why it is so hard to make money nowadays--everything is completely picked over.
Final point. There is no tech bubble. There is a tech boom. And it is going to be a really, really big tech boom, in certain sectors of the market. There are some value destroyers in the space (MSFT and CSCO), so it’s not helpful to just buy ETFs; you have to get smart about the individual names. But as for the individual names, the best is yet to come. This LNKD IPO is ruining things for everyone, and it is going to make thefacebook all that more expensive, but it doesn’t matter. It will be a buy at just about any price. I’m bullish.
If I had only been born ten years earlier.
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Cap, or crap? I get so confused.
Subconsciously, he meant crap because he's actually used it and realized it is an overhyped, bug-ridden piece of shit...that steals your personal information and connections.
No intellegent person would post actionable information on there under their real bona fides....sober. It is, nonetheless, a gold mine for advertizers who target the 18-35 impulsive crowd, at least until something better comes along.
Did I mention the impulsive crowd?
early adopter here...but i draw the Luddite line at F'book.
"I am NOT a data mine! I AM A HUMAN BEING!!"-Charleton Heston
...and Zuckerborg creeps me out.
Kids seem to eat this shit up with a spoon but in my American dad's day they said, "it's none of your godDamn business"
how was the nation born without it?
My Daughter of 15 said: I and many of my classmates use nicknames and separate email accounts just for facebook as it is very intrusive.
While on the subject, we experimented on clicking on friends' friends on and on and went around the world a few times. I actually found an Australian with whom I had worked 15 years ago.
But the message is now resonating about personal information and some kids are dropping out of facebook
you mean there are still some PARENTS left?
My kid's on there too with bogus info...
I told her young, "We don't do "marketing"
He is somewhat right
You guys think WAY TOO SMALL!
If you trusted the FED and BTFD you would HAVE MADE decent amount of money by now!!
BTFD! Just CLOSE YOUR EYES AND HIT THE BUY BUTTON!!
Canceled my cheapo Economist subscription the month after I gradeated the 3rd time.
1980.
I gots me edicated..
Did you guys load the boat? No "inflation" with this product. The price has been the same now for almost two years. Consider yourself lucky if this product is still in stock. Usually disappears within days
http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?Prodid=11539429&whse=BC&Ne=4000000&eCat=BC|3605|75277|90741&N=4047923&Mo=39&pos=0&No=7&Nr=P_CatalogName:BC&cat=90741&Ns=P_Price|1||P_SignDesc1&lang=en-US&Sp=C&ec=BC-EC39718-Cat75277&topnav=
Thanks for the heads up.
I've been waiting for some of the Mountain House/Oregon Freeze Dry stuff to get back in stock.
Funny how Israel gets less warning on a rocket attack than the Midwest gets for a tornado.
Well, May is the prime season.
It's not too surprising.
Qassams, or whatever the jihadis call their bottle rockets, have a short range and fly pretty fast. Whereas the conditions from which tornadoes arise are a little easier to spot from a distance.
I had to temporarily disable my webfilter to post this, because i've set it to block everything that has facebook in it's URL.
Love the thinking.
I got rid of Facebook. I was tired of providing free awesome to all my friends. Plus my mom joined. And I'd pay not to have her on.
Excellent.
Is this like My-Butt?
I fear facebook. I do not fear Zero Hedge. Would someone please tell me why i don't fear both? Anywho "money and bad people do mix." I think a trillion is "just a little on the high side"--then again...who knows? I know this: too much truth, justice and "the legal way" on this site to garner more than a few bucks in an IPO. We need to excel and being a better criminal here. "The rat's are winning again."
You should be afraid, very afraid. This Fascist Goobermint will grab any posts it needs to put you on the cross.
I've had 3 days of a black helicopter going overhead since I mentioned '.416 Barrett'.
(It's a .50)
I am afraid! I am! Even that doesn't work.
supersonic to 2500 yards.
Denial.
I'll take 'other rivers' for $300, Alex!
you sniffing hairballs this evening Myn?
Facebook will be gone in five years. Or, irrelevant as a business anyway. There is no real business there to begin with. A bunch of narcissistic nitwits all screaming for attention, spewing meaningless chatter at each other all day long. The whole premise is absurd. Who values this "service" enough to actually pay for it? No one. Corporate networks have already started aggressively blocking Facebook to prevent people from wasting their work time on it. That's the beginning of the end.
Facebook will peak, wither, die, and finally be scooped up by Google and rolled into their stable of trivial, unprofitable side businesses.
It will be difficult to be on facebook when everyone is working 12 hours a day for $10 an hour and Amerika will be "king of manufacturing"...again!
No it won't.
In short, Facebook is going to be a linchpin technology for the Alpha controlling class in the coming Brave New World Order.
Post a pro-government announcement on Facebook and you'll get a credit on your Starbucks card.
Please,,,I need to up my meds..and restart my "myspace" account.
Disagree. Most of said info is obtainable elsewhere for free or for minimal cost. And if it's really so valuable, Google/Android, AAPL, and even Mr. Softee will compete by paying users (one way or another) to use their networks.
How about this: Instead of facebook where you post a picture of your face. Assbook where you post a picture of your ass? Some people have nicer looking asses. Just sayin'
the worst thing about your idea is that it might work ...
How about JunkBook?
i agree that there seems to be something sinister about facebook. and I don't believe for one second the fairy tale of how it came together. zuckerberg is just the public whiz kid face they put on it. smells a lot more like an intell agency, just like wikileaks.
and Tom of Myspace.
FaceBook will NEVER DIE!!! and Twiter is on its death bed every moment of every day.. no way to control the flow of instant information..
just kidding Twitter will NEVER die either!
they have your info, you pics, your family, your friends, your likes and dislikes.. everything a key stroke away!
Thats why the U.S. Millitarty Promotes FaceBook! LOL
Before you call me a liar, please use google its you friend! LOL
FB was funded in part by the CIA's venture capital arm. I bet they love it.
FB never deletes anything, ever. Even if you leave the service and delete your account, they still keep the info.
The most important part of any spy agency is the social graph, that is, who knows who and the relative importance of any 1 person to any other person they choose to know about. FB provides that almost automatically.
Not so ILikeBoats. Tunga posted extensively on facebook about the father of the supercomputer; Dr. John Von Neuman and his "anti-machine". Poof!
Tunga also posted the links exposing the Christmas Day Underwear Bomber from Kurt Haskell. Poof again.
The place is well populated with NWO propaganda shills and Homeland Security Drones. Good information does leak through just by virtue of the fact that so many real people with real experiences recognize the control grid for what it is and play off it to our advantage. Let's face it; most of the stooges working for Homeland Security are pretty fucking stupid. They work there because they can't get a job being a low down no good dirty rat fink any place else. Just Tunga's unsolicited opinion of course. Nothing the Tunga says is true. At least that's what it says in the disclaimer.
Nothing like having people happily constructing their own dossiers. Wanna to stand out like a sore thumb? Don't have a facecrook page.
Was this tongue in cheek or is this guy smokin dope?
Ya facebook very well might reach 1 trillion market cap, milk then might go for a $100. Just saying not willing to rule out the possibility.
I wonder what would happen to facebook once it seriously starts to be mined by the government, insurance companies, ect. People post their lives up there with no means to take it back.
Would happen? Wrong tense my friend.
facebook is not social networking. it is the current iteration, in 10 years facebook will be the stronghold of the middle aged house wife, yes, but it will not be the only way people connect online. the fatal flaw in facebook is it's ownership over social construction which does not delineate social factions, everyone is treated to be equal as "friends" facebook is not about friends, a true universal social network would list the different social relationships between people in a cascading structure which makes it plain for all to see the different associations between people.
facebook will die, i'm sure you can make money in the process though.
wake me up when a social networking site allows me to: coworker, acquaintance, friend, associate, et all someone, all in a linked cloud where i can add multiple relationships at will.
... a company that has intimate information (that people willingly put on there!) on every man, woman and child in the country is worth more (to somebody) than $100 billion.
'nuff said.
From DJ news, 20 minutes into the future:
* 20:43 SEN BOXER DEMANDS ZH POSTERS LIST
* 20:44 BWANY FWANKS DEMANDS SOURCE OF PHOTOS FROM ZH
* 20:48 SEN bOXER DEMANDS ZH UNPHOTOSHOP PICS OF HER BEING SHORTER THAN JOPLIN,MI YELLOWPAGES
* 20:49 SEN CHUCKY SCHMUCKY SCHUMER DEMANDS HIS LIKENESS REMOVED FROM CHUCKY CHEESE
* 20:54 OBAMA OBJECTS TO BEING CALLED BLACK IRISH
* 20:55 SOS CLINTON OBJECTS TO BEING CALLED A MORON
* 20:55 VAN JONES OBJECTS TO BEING CALLED VAN JONES
* 20:56 MOOCHELLE NEEDS $500 MIL FOR A NEW WARDROBE
* 20:56 MOOCHELLE: MY ASS GREW WHEN I WASN'T LOOKING
* 20:56 MOOCHELLE: WOULD NOT HAVE NOTICED IF BARRY DIDN'T USE IT FOR A SHELF FOR HIS QUINNESS
...absolutely, the dark path. George Orwell knew. Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts ABSOLUTELY!
lord acton too.
Time to join "assbook" and "qwitter"
Sharing.
When young people learn what their parents know, (Nazis used public medical records to find Jews to slaughter) Facebook will die. When Facebook users understand "1984" and "Brave New World" and how their transparency is harming them, social networks will die.
The other side is people are sheep and love to be manipulated and humanity will go down a darker path.
I knew this would be big, really big.
Just wait till the smaller, me-too copycats pile in for IPOs: always the least profitable, most improbable startups rack up 600%-day 1 gains (and become penny stocks within 10-18 months)
Sack will only have to pump single stocks not the whole market anymore.
Care to provide a link or cite your source for your stat about "40% less public companies since SOX?
This guy sounds like he studies ass clown Jim Cramer's "logic": if the market says Linked In is worth 10B, then NFLX must be worth 50B and CRM is worth at least 100B blah blah blah... shades of 1999 dot bomb valuation "modeling"
They will use Facebook to assign slots at the nearest FEMA camp; after all, you'll be among friends. right?
It will be interesting trying to guess everyone's ZH monikers, unless I learn how to visually parse USD-3.
I'm long "value destroyers" CSCO and MSFT. The may have been value destroyers (after being decade+ value creators) but at least I know what they are... what they make... how they generate cash flow...
Facebook? 1 Trillion dollars? Yeah, right. Except noone knows what the heck it is... when it will be hacked and rendered unusable.. when the "cool" wears off... when it will join the AOL, theglobe.com, and myspace...
Why dont we just have the G8 meet on facebook? Instead of traveling every two weeks to stamp out the global fires they could just friend each other and solve all our problems.
I've been contemplating starting a competing website. I'm willing to sell the IP Address if anybody wants its:
www.myassface.com
Let the bidding start at 1 $5 Gold Eagle. And GO!
I agree with the overall thrust of the argument. Facebook will debut around $100 billion in market cap (if it goes public in the next 2 years) and within 10 years will be over $1 trillion. And I say this as someone who doesn't really use it at all, nor even have the desire to, but every single person I know has an account- every single one.
Well done.
ZH finally reached maturity, and grasped the 21st century.
"State / Corporate / Private Control"
"Freedom / Slavery"
"Democracy / Totalitarian Capitalism [historically known as "Communism"]"
"Public / Private"
"Left / Right Wing"
These are old memes. If you believe in them, you're fucking out of date and need to get out of the game. Speaking of which, Facebook is old [in that the new apps show auto-communication between your PD and the person you're talking to's PD] but it heralds the NEW.
And newsflash: Some of use think your NEW is a one way trip to armageddon, and we're coming for you. Facebook doesn't put bread on the table, it doesn't make people intelligent, it doesn't uplift populaces, and its the biggest bubble known to humankind. If you've not noticed, your "new" Capitalism has not only put the Golden Billion into penury, but is probably going to ruin the planet. Oh, and well done on the Oceans already.
The bubble is this: without genius, without intelligence, without drive, without purpose, without threats to survival, without freedom; humanity will cease to develop. Twitter is not "NEW"; it is merely the power of gossip multiplied by technology. And so, the Judges who see it as a "threat to society".. oh, ffs... lock them up. They know nothing. If it really was "NEW", Stephen Fry wouldn't be championing it. Facebook is not "NEW", it is simplistic GUI attached to the pathetic adolescent desire for the world to revolve around yourself.
If you're putting a trillion dollar price tag on self-involvement dear, then newsflash: the porn industry already exists, you fucking tool.
The real new is... Wikileaks. Transparency. The virus in your computer that we got from HB Gary and is non-detectable in your RAM.
So, fuck the OP, fuck you, and fuck facebook. You are the anodyne bland corporate shackles of the future, and we say - humanity is worth more than "Updated status: I'm feeling glum that my boss likes pink, not red". Fuck you. And fuck Google's White-Red-Yellow tags if we're at this, fucking elitist lying scum (remember: "do no evil" - but lie like shit and run your campus like it was Port Merrian in the Prisoner). Oh wait.. White for "normals"; Red for "Skilled Labourers / Crafters"; "Yellow" for "sub-human trash who do the shitty jobs". Not seen the Blue tag [Apple - sales - "instilling the faith in the product / whipping up hysteric product love"] or the Green tag [hmm, that'd be telling, wouldn't it..] or Black tag [Hello, Apple enforcement].
Colour coded "sophistication", what paltry bollocks.
The Buddhists have a colour scheme; but so do you new 'masters of the world'. Guess what? If you ain't built a nuke, you're squat all in the power book. Your ideas are old; we laugh at them, whilst despairing that the multitude suck on the teat of supposed benevolence.
The real issue here is simple:
Real ideas aren't created by the parasites. Remember the tower, and the man who designed a helicopter before his time. We know you now, we can see your electronic traces, and being honest: you're not all that. Back in the days when you had info-control, Kissinger and so on... yeah, you were so-so-hot. Now.
Fuck you. Pathetic, control hungry parasites. Fuck you, and fuck your "vision" of society. How's about bringing in the real "new"... hmm. It is coming.
p.s.
If you really think the future is about "billions of dollars" on "new tech IPO's", then you're a fucking tool. "Wish he'd been born earlier".
Helps if, somewhere in your vapid piece, you'd put how old you were dear... 'cause hey, some of us remember the ZX81.
I didn't think Jared Loughner had internet access from jail. Guess I was wrong.
Oh, so cute.
Now, if you want to move up from purile 'paint the critique as mental' to 'actually engage brain', we're all for it.
Otherwise.. suck yourself, WTF, or the big brother next door will.
p.s. Hoping you're getting paid for the shilling; otherwise, you need a spare crack pipe?
If you need it in small doses for the small IQ:
What, if anything, has Facebook got as a marketable commodity, other than the data its users gives it WITHOUT giving permission to share.
DURRR.
Fucktard.
p.s.
Aww, little child junked me, but couldn't find a reply. QQ. Here's a tip: Facebook is nothing more than a useful app / GUI that people use. If pushed [COUGH - ER - NUMEROUS OTHER SOCIAL SITES COUGH] they move onto the 'next hip thing'. Facebook is a deadzone, and only the idiots give real data.
Remember the picture where Zucker is labeled "giving your data to companies for a fee" and Assange is the opposite? Aww. Truth hurts.
I junked you because you are a flaming dickhead and because you write junk.
You would probably blow off the IPO of "the television", and you could fairly say that it:
I don't disagree with half of what you say (and I read it all), but I want you to realize that Facebook can be for the ruling class as useful as television was. I predict it will not go away because the ruling class is already clearly promoting Facebook in a more significant way than just simple product placement -- the big banks, the big media infrastructure corps, and the big media content provider corps are already clearly on board with a new Facebook paradigm. Not to mention the warfare and intelligence corps.
You've got your head up your ass for getting so angry and arguing so strenuously against the original post, which ought to have been read with a grain of salt in the first place.
Disclaimer: nothing in this post should be considered investment-grade advice. Of course stocks are bullshit. They might all tank soon. We are in a major Bernanke beta stock bubble and investing in tech stocks is as inherently risky as investing in any thing in this looney tunes ponzi casino.
Exactly - it's not that I disagree with weapon. It's that he's is spouting incomprehensible shit. It reminded me of when I first read J.L.'s incoherent ramblings.
Speaking of which, Facebook is old [in that the new apps show auto-communication between your PD and the person you're talking to's PD] but it heralds the NEW.
I'm well aware of the content of your post, and I'm also well aware that Facebook is stage #1 in this game - the GUI / App that provides the levels of control / surveillance is unimportant, its the P.O.C. involved. Re-read what I wrote reading between the lines: Facebook is an app - and can be changed / upgraded at any time, and will be soon - the infrastructure / conditioning behind it is the important thing. So while yes, your comment about medical records is semi-accurate, a more 'spot on' comment would be how Stasi had access to people's confessions to their local Catholic Priests.
Btw - Do your research on one of the hot topics of G8, "Civilised Internet"; Bill Clinton has been harping on about it, and the UK is supplying outraged Judges over Twitter & super-injunctions to add fuel to it.
http://www.edri.org/edrigram/number9.2/sarkozy-civilised-internet-g20
p.s. drunk =/= nutter, butternuts.
Waiiiit..
Jared Dillian graduated from the United States Coast Guard Academy in 1996 with a B.S. in Mathematics and Computer Science, and from the University of San Francisco in 2001 with a Masters in Business Administration, concentration in Finance. Jared worked for a small floor market maker on the Pacific Options Exchange from 1999-2000, and was a trader for Lehman Brothers from 2001 to 2008. He specialized in index arbitrage and ETF trading.
Ok, wait. Leman Brothers. I remember them. Something about... office walk outs... can't remember it now. Past history... it's a blur. I think my brother has a sign of theirs or something, got it on E-bay.
In other words: fuck you, you piece of dinosaur shit.
GOOG will be the first $1t stock in 2016.
Did you forget that the dollar is pegged as failing in 2013 / early 2014?
Sheesh, you bears have short memories.
Enjoy the "rally" on Google when the shit has hit the fan.
I have some preconceived negative feelings about Facebook. But, to be fair I should probably keep them to myself util I have a mental lapse and actually open a Facebook account someday.
"I went and got myself a subscription to The Economist, but I did it with airline miles, because I’m not going to pay hard dollars for that thing"
I'm no expert on the economy, but it seems to be that the only hard dollars created by 'social networking' sites like Facebook is the informational intelligence of the people who post/blog about everything under the son. This is why Facebook is notorious for failing to uphold to its privacy settings, for those who actually use the feature. Otherwise, Facebook is a hard cash for virtual credit system via its applications aka aps.
"So two weeks ago they had on the cover (you have to watch for the covers, it’s hilarious) that there was some kind of tech bubble, and they were serious about it, really really serious about it, as if we don’t have enough problems with debt monetization already, now we have to throw an equity bubble on there, too? We are all just totally doomed."
For all purposes, you agree that we're doomed.
"I don’t share the opinion that we are in a tech bubble, not even close, I think that this is a legitimate investment boom, and I think it is going to be one of the biggest legitimate investment booms of all time."
"I think it will be the first company to (legitimately) hit $1 trillion market cap."
"You guys think way too small."
1). I seriously doubt that the Facebook investment boom is legitimate. If I recall Reggie Middleton's contribution to Zero Hedge on the subject of Facebook, the math does not add up. I would also add that the moment Facebook starts charging for its services with unemployment, not-employed, and underemployed roughly standing at 23-25% as well as the vast majority of job creation being part-time jobs to replace full-time home buying and raising a family jobs gone, gone, and gone; Facebook would shoot itself in the groin and die of shock.
2). In essence, your counterpoint that this will be big is a basis; this is:
A). Bigger than you believe that contributers/posters think.
B). This is a legitimate tech boom when the present monetary-fiscal financial system is on the verge of total collapse, and the wages to support the economy via supply and demand have been nuked beyond all recognition.
"So yeah, this is part of the whole larger tech trade, you’re going to need better semis and better networking so people can plonk around on Facebook, and I have written before that we are in the middle of a legitimate tech investment boom, and you see what’s happening? You have all these people running around, telling you it’s a bubble, and what they don’t know is that you don’t get bubbles in the same thing ten years apart."
In other words, you're negating that the last tech bubble bust was dot.com that the Federal Reserve essentially redirected into the Housing/Derivative Market, and the Housing Bubble-partially exploded in 2008 forcing the Fed to again redirect and reinflate. It could be just me, but it seems that there's nowhere else bubble bursts can be directed leaving the economy helpless to these bubbles conclusive burst to equalization.
"Final point. There is no tech bubble. There is a tech boom."
3). If this is a legitimate tech boom, I'm the antichrist. Speaking of which:
"Facebook, at some point, is going to be more than just a social network, it is going to be some kind of online ID card that you have to have to shop or do anything on the web."
By the way, this is called monopolization/centralization because it creates a mandate to participate. In essence, your best 'it's a legitimate tech boom' is derived by what I understand to be a Communitarian Economic Ponzi Scheme requiring/mandating participation. It's also called entertainment and circus to distract the masses from the utter financial theft of the nation's wealth. This is what your so-called legitimate tech boom based on your own analysis boils down to.
"people have no idea how big this social networking thing is."
This is a wash when analysis includes: Unemployment, Not-employed, Under-employed, Of Age population V Jobs available, Housing, Food, Energy, Clothing, Wage V Expenses, gas at the pump, Access and non access to credit, Derivative Market, Treasury Bond Market, Geopolitical Affairs and tensions, and etc (Likely am missing a few things here).
How are people going to continue afford access? I don't see it.
How are people going to pay for Facebook ontop of all other expenses and debt especially Student Loan debt, which is not negating via bankruptcy?
(By the way, how exactly is Facebook (and twitter for that matter) going to handle international court when users plan protests that turn violent or seek to oust a soveriegn nation's leadership/government like persay Greece, UK, Ireland, Tunisia, Egypt, and etc? Is this not aiding and abiding numerous nation's laws that disrupt the world order/international law? What about all the people who use social-networking especially those who commented on such posts?)
Social-Networking is a big resource for Police Search and survey as well as a resource for potential employers. Another name for this is called Profiling, social-networking sites like facebook, twitter, myspace, and etc are source material for marketing and criminal and future activity profiling. In this case, even Reggie's math would be an overshot evaluation.
Final Point:
"Remember The Social Network? Like, the movie?"
Frankly no. According to the trailers, the movie was about a small group of people who wanted to make it easier for people (particularly them) to get laid. Frankly, I have very little interest in seeing this movie, and I had no interest seeing it in theatres.
You know what your problem is? You think too small. Go back in time to every technological advance. The phone. The TV. The internet.
What? Who's screaming in the background?
Oh yes, a certain B. Graham.
Wonderful innovation doesn't necessarily mean a good investment you tool.
I'm a seller. Anyone remember MySpace? How about WorldCom? Enron? Smartest guys in the room etc.
One of these days, people will wake up and it won't be 'cool' anymore.
First I doubt that this could have been more poorly written, there's nothing that supports the claim that it's good, just a lot of hype.
Second, I hate farcebook and for two simple reasons, first it's too much personal exposeure and second because it easily becomes a conformist tool, it breeds conformity.
I just don't like it.
I don't think people will learn in time. History doesn't have a good track record of that happening.
Facebook = Fugazzo or Fugazi
It may be worth more than $100bln to a centrally planned group, but what it aint is a new ecosystem. Make the fiat in the short-term, but realize that this will pass too.
Facebook: A registration service for sheep.
Facebook = (Million-)sheeple Electronic Registration System
Remember -if you rely on your customer's loyalty in these days to make your money- your intrinsic value is ephemeral, equals zero.
There are great points in this article -a supercharged paypal, a data-mine of freely given information (think what Microsoft's Langley division could do with that) -but also remember the new generation's fickle loyalty to anything. Phones, clothing, TV (they don't even watch tv anymore), when it gets out of fashion, it is immediate. Just watch how Lady Gaga disappears off the charts in 6 months, OK 9 months. I reckon the p*nis footwear is pretty close to jumping the shark.
Facebook's value is only appropriate in the sense that the Squid wants all your pension money, and will talk up a game on everything to confuse the market idiots.
Also remember, a dollar is worth 1/1500th of an ounce of gold.
or less......
I'm SO HAPPY I never opened a fakebook account! And this TSN cheering post makes me think I should just delete my LinkedIn account (for fun and contrarian).
But the question is... shall I keep my account so some immaginary employer can contact me? /sarc
"you don’t get bubbles in the same thing ten years apart. People are not that stupid."
First rule of life - never underestimate peoples' stupidity, laziness or greed.
Sell EuroUSD and stocks
Buy long end of US treasurys
http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/