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Guest Post: A Bull/Bear Recap
continues to show strength with very strong Empire/Philly Manufacturing
surveys. This sector may jump start the economy.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/factories-expand-in-philly-region-for-7th-month-2010-03-18?reflink=MW_news_stmp
retail sales (Goldman ICSC and Redbook) showed positive readings in a
YoY basis and shows that consumer spending has stabilized and even
begun to increase.
at "exceptionally low levels for an extended period". This has given
the green light to continue to take on risk...meanwhile,
continues to be subdued, thus we have factors in place to produce a
Goldilocks Economic Expansion, easy money leading to increases in asset
prices and low inflation.
sees the economic recovery broadening, while transports lead the rally,
despite higher oil prices. The strength would seem to be real.
Disclosure: Short Emerging Markets, Financials, Materials, Silver, Real Estate
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Notice how the banks today were totally unfazed by the USD/EUR gyrations.
CRE nothwithstanding, they are buying all dips gunning the breakout...
And speculation is running rampant.
Anyone ever heard of this junker? Huge volume today, and about 4 million shares traded after hours...
Looks like somebody wants to "make their year"
LOL..
Money is made trading futures, stocks are pretty much irellevant at this point. For the same amount of capital, you could drag around far more equiv buying power.
High volume breakouts today in the Spooks 500:
and don't forget F. it traded like a good ol' fashioned dot com today.
options expiration and INTC gets pinned at 22.000000
and TM deserves an honorable mention for trying so hard to close on 80, almost made it.
this light volume is creepy.
There's nothing wrong with F, away to 17 it goes.
And despite the usual and normal "panic selling" in oil and gold today, Chevron and Barrick were pretty much unfazed....
Panic selling in gold? Why, I thought I was going to "shit my pants" as it "went to the moon" this week, according to some.
Gold bitchez?
Anyone?
You didn't like what you saw on Tuesday? I did! Gold went back up to $1125 and stayed there until the VIX dropped below 17. Then the VIX spiked back and sent the market reeling. Gold-$1101/Silver-$16.96 tested their support levels....so? Oil is $82 Doelarrs a barrel, gold is $1101+, and you continue to hate. Metals popped back nicely from the pullback to 10,000, and it is now spring, time for the currentseas to get pulled out. $90 oil in a month, gold to move back to $1125 this week, and to stay there.
It is spring, the top is down.
Swizz Beatz - Top down:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w94jbuRlJ48
And don't forget the restaurants, hotels, cruise lines.
52-week highs today:
Hyatt, Marriott, Cheesecake Factory, Panera Bread, Carnival Cruise Lines, Buffalo Wild Wings, etc.
Looks like a lot of long bets that ObamaScare will put a lot of ObamaBucks in consumer pockets . Might have to wait til 2015, though. Buy 'em and Hold 'em , Baby !!! Yee-Hah !
Economy will not improve untill demand for things and loans improve, and as we all know that wages of huge majority of population stagnated for 30 years. Income increase of top 1% doesnt help demand even tough will increse median wage income and trow the mud into your eyes.
Knowing all this, GOP still wants to make more welfare queens by reducing SS and Madicare that keeps those who enjoy them not to sink to beggers levels and makes them consumers. Not to mention that they were paying into it for their whole life and now want to enjoy the products of their work.
GOP wants to help corporations reduce the labor expenses for purpose of saving the companies. If companies need saving then they should not increase menagement bonuses, but we all know that every labor wage cut brings bigger menagement bonuses.
By reducing the wages of their own workers they are destroying their own customers. They might think that if only they reduce their workers wages, other companies won't and they will still have enough consumers to buy thier products. But that was happening over 30 years time and now every Union is destroyed except government employee unions, and Unions were only ones keeping labor wages on level to make them consumers instead of welfere queens.
30 years of damaging Unions that started with Reagan firing Air controlers and spiting on Unions gave us this lack of demand for loans and products that we can see now troughout the economy. For some time that lack of demand was disipated by borrowing from the home equities, but now it is end of it and we see how we swim in shallow watters.
And lack of health care for 47 million american residents makes them so close to becoming a welfare queens, it is just one illnes away or an accident.
GOP wants to give more power to corporations to control the wages of all americans and with that their buying power.
As we all know they will give smaller and smaller wages, especialy with this unemployment levels. And that will destroy many consumers and make them welfare queens.
Only Unions can keep welfare queen numbers down by protecting their wages and benefits.
Do not let this self destruction going, do not let corporations destroy their customer base, do not let GOP make more welfare queens.
Lets create more consumers instead of welfare queens and save economy, SS and Medicare.
Critical Tinkerer you are so right. Why can't we have the Danish model which has been in operation since the 1890's. They came to an agreement. Unions will not do wildcat strikes and corporations will not try to break the unions up. It has worked for over a hundred years. By the way, minimum wage in Denmark is about $18/hr. Yes, they tax the rich heavy. Why should us peons care? According to 60 minutes they are the happiest people in the world.
How many people live in Denmark, that aren't homogenous?
You can't run the disUnited States like a family which most of the Scandinavian and other socialist countries are.
When the hell will you people stop comparing the polymess that is the disUnited States to pissant countries that are no bigger than some of our cities?
Are you saying that US is incompetent? That US can not menage economy because it is complicated? Are you saying that US is racist country and that it can not be resolved? Are you saying that welfare queens are only minorities?
So you want us all to give up on solving the problems. To me it looks like you want all of us to give up, based on your message. Are you so unAmerican?
This was your climax...
By reducing the wages of their own workers they are destroying their own customers.
WOW, sounds like we're really in the clear. Have we forgotten: Rising fiscal deficits in key sovereign nations US, UK etc.., excessive risk taking with carry trade, historically low volumes, current valuations=matured recovery (not), sustained high level UE, de-levering consumer, inflated bank balance sheets......what what what is wrong here. I feel so alone late on a Friday. Good luck everybody, HC vote Sunday probably corks the market higher higher and higher (because it'll be over, right)?
Let's watch what happens after the HC vote, if/when it passes. Up for grabs are reconciliation with Senate, corporate and small business reaction (more layoffs?), and providers reaction (retirements?). The HC vote is one thing, the follow-on will be something very interesting to watch over the next 6 months.
Agreed, the next 6 months "should" be interesting one way the other.
I'm bearish but a little bit more nervous since it appears the markets might be more satisfied that HC bill issue is over (assuming vote Sunday) than they are of the outcome, either way. On the other hand, should HC pass, it would clear the way for OBAMA and Congress to aggressively push thru their agenda before mid-term election. This could be distastorous for markets, needless to say what it will actually do to our debt burden. Notwithstanding all this, I'm concerned mid to longer term becasue I know there's something wrong with the system and the longer this drags out the worst it'll be for us normal people.
All that really matters is the supply and demand for stocks.
Forget everything else.
Right now, buying interest is increasing, and until the IPO bandwagon gets going, the supply of stock is limited.
And all those poor slobs who piled into bonds the last 2 years are eventually going to get lured back into stocks at some point.
Will stay bonds and a slob before I let stocks rape me again.
Don't be coy, you wanted it.
Bear or bull. Prechter vs Cramer sounds like an interesting battle. Let the Elliot Wave counts commence http://www.apartofny.com/2010/03/cramer-vs-prechter-from-an-elliott-wave-perspective/
Nothing like two people who are consistently wrong to waste my time comparing...
EURO has now resumed it's downtrend on the daily chart. Weekly chart remains bearish.
Opposite for USD index of course.
Equity markets can't ignore this for long.
Weekly DOW / SP500 charts have been giving bearish warnings for months now.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
And the pound? Will it still take pounding? Or will it flex like it did this week, up and down nearly 7cents, unheard of?
Watch out for India and China.
Critical "Do or Die" levels.
If these break down, the bears have a chance.
If they break out, its going to be a good summer for the bulls.
And keep an eye on corporate and junk bonds. Corporate bonds have already broken out.
Junk bonds are pretty close:
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