Guest Post: Cash For Clunkers Vs. The Big Three's 0% Financing In October 2001
Submitted by John Bougearel of Structural Logic
The June 1 ISM to June 5 NFP high to higher high was +10. The idea was that the Aug 3 ISM to Aug 7 NFP higher high would be roughly +10. If so, it would target 1013. That is precisely what has happened. Notably, the stock market sold off 32 points by the following Monday June 8 before setting a retrace high on Thursday June 11’s retail sales report that were goosed by automaker incentives of $6900 in rebates. Expecting July retail sales to be goosed by similar cash for clunker incentives, we expect the stock market to rally into Thursday’s Aug 13 retail sales report. In short, a rolling top similar to June’s is expected in the first half of August.