Guest Post: Census Numbers Uncensored

Submitted By Vedran Vuk, Casey Research

Census Numbers Uncensored

The Census aims to be every man’s hero. It promises an economic stimulus, a reduction in unemployment, and greater funds for every community. Of course, the reality is much closer to a game of musical chairs with your money. And guess who will be left standing?

The most immediate impact of the Census is that it distorts unemployment rates. With 1.2 million hired temporarily during the fall, the Census is already skewing the unemployment numbers in the government’s favor. Specifically, the fall data shows unemployment at 9.8% (Sept), 10.1% (Oct), and 10% (Nov).

Who can forget the hoopla over the November reduction from 10.1 to 10? To government officials, it was as if the clouds had parted after a relentless hurricane, “proof” that the massive stimulus spending was working.

This one-tenth-of-a-percent drop was exalted as the beginning of the end for the recession. Of course, a closer look at the numbers revealed that the decrease was largely explained by those leaving the workforce and dropping  out of the government’s statistics. Similarly, the January drop from 10 percent to 9.7 percent was praised as a sign from the heavens, a sign that was subsequently tarnished by February’s slight increase in unemployment. 

In an attempt to get a clearer picture of the effect from the Census on unemployment data, we evenly subtracted the 1.2-million Census bump across fall’s unemployment rates and found the new numbers ringing in at 10.1% (Sept), 10.4% (Oct), and 10.1% (Nov). If a one-tenth-of-a-percent drop in November was a reason to celebrate, then a three-tenth-of-a-percent October upward revision is a reason to cringe.

In the months ahead, expect the same number games.

The Census already hired 1.2 million workers in the fall, as mentioned earlier; now they’re planning  for another 1.2 million in the spring. February began with an additional 15,000 Census workers; the hiring will peak in April-May with 800,000 workers hired in just two months. The peak alone is projected to temporarily push unemployment downward by half a percent.

Digging a bit deeper, we find that this year, 723,000 door-to-door Census takers will be needed in comparison to 2000’s 604,000, a 16.6 percent increase despite the lack of an equivalent rise in the population. 

The hiring numbers are pushed upward by the low total working hours per employee. On average, each temporary Census employee will work 19 hours a week for six weeks. But “work” may not be the most appropriate word. The Census estimates that only 47.8 million houses will require a Census worker to visit. Divide this by 723,000 census takers to get 66 houses per worker. Since each temp will be employed for six weeks, this translates into less than two houses visited per workday. 

The spending side of the Census equation doesn’t make much sense either. According to a Census Bureau press release, mailing back the form costs the government only 42 cents, while visiting a house costs 56 dollars.

Why does it cost 56 dollars to visit just one house! Even with repeat visits, this seems a lot. Imagine that pizza delivery were this expensive. 

This wasted money will go toward boosting the GDP by 0.1% and 0.2% during Q1 and Q2, followed by equivalent declines in Q3 and Q4. Some parts of the country will get more than others, according to various pay rates. The Washington D.C. Census office offers $20 per hour, San Francisco $22, and Anchorage, Alaska, pays the most at $25 per hour. On the lower end, Tupelo, MS, pays $10.50; Beckley, WV, $10.75; El Paso, TX, $12.75 per hour.

With some exceptions, large metropolitan areas will receive higher pay rates.

And what about money allocated through Census data? The Census marketing campaign has claimed that filling out the Census will help your community. Certainly, in 2007, nearly $436 billion were redistributed through the aid of Census data. But helping the community might be stretching it – unless one considers welfare payments as “helping the community.” Examining the long list of programs reveals that little will help net taxpayers, other than road-building projects.

Government cannot improve one individual’s situation without taking away from another. Just as it does for any government program, this applies to money allocated by the Census. This helps the community about as much as mugging somebody on the street. Hey, someone in the community got the money, right?

Distortions in unemployment rates aren’t the only things in store this year. It’s time to tally up the dependents on the welfare state, redistribute some income, and fudge the economic numbers. All in a day’s work at the Census – or should I say, half a day’s work.

Comments

[chepurko]

I guess most people against welfare are the ones who never needed it at some time.

[Bear_Cub]

"I'm not looking for a job right now because my unemployment benefits are too good"

True quote from somebody I met who wanted to know if she could qualify to buy a house. That's why most people are against redistribution plans.

[non-anon]

Hey Bear_Cub, also someone posted on WSJ comments that they saved and anticipated the housing market to go down to buy a house at "real" prices. Lo and behold the Fed steps in and props up the housing market to "inflated" prices, thus screwing those that saved and allowing people that are in foreclosure to live in their houses rent free. Gov rewards failure and punishes honest success!

[Cognitive Dissonance]

Can someone please explain to me why this comment would be junked? The ZH community has been taken over by junk bots, with the practice of random and ridiculous junking exploding over the past few weeks.

It began a week or so before anon's were banished from commenting and has continued since then. Which means it's registered ZH'ers who are doing this. Folks, if we want a viable community, this must stop. It's turning into the Yahoo boards, with anyone speaking even slightly off consensus being junked.

ZH is all about being off consensus. Wake up people. Someone(s) is shitting on your front porch.

[dark pools of soros]

well people DO pay into it..  nothing wrong for what it was designed to do (and some states you get squat) but the endless extensions are inane..  not even after that fraud 9/11 did they extend it this long

seriously, a lot of these so called handouts were fine until we bailed out these junk banks, etc.. now none of it makes sense.. and of course they changed the personal BK rules just before this whole sham

the game wasn't perfect in the 90's  but atleast it felt like the rules showed boundaries..and kept the game worth playing..  not so much now

[TheGoodDoctor]

Yeah you know the stigma of being unemployed or on unemployment is bad enough. It's not like some of us went to school with the goal of unemployment in mind.

Nothing like being forced to spend money that was being saved for said house at "normal prices" on a budget of only one paycheck a month thanks to unemployment. And I found out that I was pretty underpaid to begin with!

And to me that is the misconception. Unemployment covers the basics. It's not like I am living large and buying iPods and chasing tail at the club and hitting the 4 star dining establishments. I'm single and pay rent. I can only imagine those with a significant other and kids trying to make ends meet with a mortgage payment. I downsized as best I could and am trying to preserve capital until I get a job.

Right now I consider myself blessed. And I won't go into the whole playing by the rules game. Because that seems to not apply in this f'ing Bizarro world that we live in right now. (meaning going to school for an education (not Ivy League) paying off debt, saving for a house with a good chunk of change down, and building my very good credit rating) And all that being a non trad because you can't win at the game of life without the secondary education folks. Not anymore. It's a rarity. The American dream is almost dead.

And if you read a certain book by my avatar back around 71' he claimed it was dead then. Maybe so, because we got off the gold standard then.

[Paladin en passant]

I'm guessing Detroit is your shining city on the hill, your beacon of hope for the oppressed masses, your bosom of succor for the walked-on in life?

[Mad Max]

Your avatar matches your comment well.

[non-anon]

I am not a number, I am a free man... ha!ha!ha!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Is2nSoqFRHU

[TheGoodDoctor]

Yeah man. How naive. As a kid I thought this was about the social security number. Anyway, the new Prisoner on AMC was pretty cool. I have to check out the original series.

On a side note when Steve Harris puts his leg up on a monitor you know it is time to rock out!

Just curious were those Wall Street types into metal back in the 80's? Or just coke? LOL.

[throwthebumsout]

I think the hiring of census workers might actually increase the unemployment rate.  Many of the people who actually admit to the government surveys that they have stopped looking for work are trying to get census jobs.  If the recent ratio of 6 applicants for every job still holds, then hiring a million census workers could easily put several million back into the numbers.

[faustian bargain]

That's just crazy enough to be a distinct possibility.

[Anonymouse]

The census of course has an important constitutional purpose, apportionment of seats in the House of Representatives.  Unfortunately, it is used as a hammer to find out all sorts of private information that has nothing to do with apportionment.

As explained at http://www.usconstitution.net/consttop_cens.html 

The authority of the Congress to conduct the census in whatever way it wishes, and thus to require that the forms be filled out is found in the Constitution itself, which notes:

[The Census] shall be made ... in such Manner as [Congress] shall by Law direct.

The Congress is also authorized to ask various questions in the census aside from the basic headcount by virtue of this clause and by virtue of the Necessary and Proper Clause.

They read this as license to ask anything the want.  To normal human beings the "manner" would be in person, by mail, etc.

To them, there is nothing they could not ask from number of telephones, to your wife's breast size, to whether you have sexual fantasies about Steve Liesman.

Unless of course, you base this on the Necessary and Proper Clause, which says

To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.

So what are those "foregoing Powers"?

The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

To borrow money on the credit of the United States;

To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;

To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States;

To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;

To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;

To establish Post Offices and Post Roads;

To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;

To constitute Tribunals inferior to the supreme Court;

To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offenses against the Law of Nations;

To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;

To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;

To provide and maintain a Navy;

To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;

To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions;

To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;

To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings

Funny, I don't see anything here about time you leave for work, your income, or whether you own your house.

Despite what the courts may have ruled, the census is an unconstitutional encroachment on our freedom

[jlr]

Lie much?  Nothing in census about what time you leave for work or what your income is.  If you want be a paranoid fool, go for it, just don't expect anybody to buy into the hyperbole.

[Anonymouse]

The American Community Survey is sent to 3 million Americans annually and includes those questions.

Question 33: What time did this person usually leave home to go to work last week?

Question 47: Income in the past 12 months

http://www.census.gov/acs/www/SBasics/acs_2010_faq2.htm

Do I have to respond to the 2010 Census and the American Community Survey?

Yes.

The American Community Survey, which replaced the decennial census long form [emphasis added], has different questions and purposes than the 2010 Census population headcount. Your participation in both is vital and required by law[emphasis added]. Data about how our communities are changing are crucial to many planning decisions that affect you—such as neighborhood improvements, emergency preparedness, transportation, senior services and much more.

So the ACS is part of the census (in essence the long form), is administered by the Census Bureau, and is required by law.

But what do I know?  I'm just a paranoid fool.

[Crab Cake]

I'm so making someone come to my door....

At least some average citizens and kids will get some spare change from the bankers dripping phallus, is my thinking.

[augmister]

It is so much easier getting rid of one of your Congressmen by throwing away your 2010 Census form than it is to vote one out of office.  Welcome to the new normal!

[Anonymouse]

+1776

Now that is a novel idea!  Never heard that thought before

Of course, they would redistrict to keep a Barney Frank or a Mel Watt or Sheila Jackson Lee and get rid of a Ron Paul.

Still, you may be on to something

[jlr]

That'a a great idea!  It will help to make sure that idiots like you don't actually have a voice or a vote that matters.

[nmewn]

jlr,

I note Anonymouse refuses to answer your ringing of his door bell and the pounding on his door.

Vil ju now kick in eees door and vorce him to sign your zensus papers FULLY at gunpoint? ;-)

[digalert]

Recieved a mailor six weeks ago informing that I would recieve the census. I got the census, still sitting in a pile. Then I get a mailor telling me they sent the census. We'll see, too many ?'s, I thought they just needed to count population, not my bank acct. number. Maybe when the worker comes around, I'll ask.

[jlr]

Didja you ever read that book by Norman Mailer?  It was great.

Do only fools post here these days?

Might as well just cancel the comments pages because all of the drooling has got to be shorting out the servers.

[yoodman_jimmyy]

I thought Census hiring was pretty much 'fait accompli'.

http://2010.census.gov/2010census/how/key-dates.php 

FALL 2008 
Recruitment began for local census jobs for early census operations 

SPRING 2009 
Census employees went door-to-door to update address list nationwide 

FALL 2009 
Recruitment began for census takers needed for peak workload in 2010 

MARCH 2010 
Census forms are mailed or delivered to households 

APRIL 2010 
National Census Day—use this day as a point of reference for sending your completed forms back in the mail 

APRIL - JULY 2010 
Census takers visit households that did not return a form by mail 

DECEMBER 2010 
By law, the Census Bureau delivers population information to the President for apportionment 

MARCH 2011 
By law, the Census Bureau completes delivery of redistricting data to states
 

[sethstorm]

Well, if the private sector refuses to help, it's part of the problem.  They can only hold out and circumvent for so long until they're called on it.

They need to stop holding US jobs hostage out of spite.  But then that wouldn't give them a politically pleasing outcome if they didn't have 6:1 applicant:job ratios.  That is, they wouldn't be able to lord over people looking for work or harass the people who already have it.

[orange juice]

Forget all that, I want to know how much this garbage is costing... remember the super bowl ad? The ads with hollywood stars in them? The sixteen different mailers you got about it?  And it took about 15 seconds to fill out and return..... wtf? Talk about wasted money!

[Miyagi_san]

Yes, but they got your name, address, fingerprints and maybe DNA. Get in line and STFU

[BlackBeard]

Woooo... just look at all that productive federal government labor!!!

[mark456]

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[Anonymouse]

Can this jerk be banned?