Guest Post: China’s Economy: #1 or #126?

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Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:21 | 1230492 disabledvet
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my favorite book from the 90's:  "Less Than Zero."  I don't know what that means but "i feel a Big Buddha comin'."

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:57 | 1230715 LFMayor
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is it based off the film of the same name?  You know, the one where Robert Downey Jr. was method acting?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 01:23 | 1232980 flavian
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Half of the US so-called GDP is made up by "services" and especially financial services. Now, on the production side, half of that is military stuff.

Now wonder that China produces more real stuff than US and most of the products you buy from the supermarket is made in China.



Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:06 | 1230769 covert
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for china to become #1, it first become even more Libertian than all other countries. not likely to happen.


Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:19 | 1230496 tmosley
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Uh-huh.  And what happens when the Yuan appreciates 50%?  100%?  200%?


Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:53 | 1230689 Harlequin001
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they print more of it and the exchange rate stays the same...

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 19:07 | 1232115 Nobody special
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The author is an idiot.  Not only does the Yuan have the means to appreciate, it has the headroom.  The total economy in China would be larger than the US if each person had only 20% of the buying power a US citizen has.  As China grows, it could overtake the US by a factor of five.  Now I don't believe that the world's resources can sustain that, but I do believe we will get closer to a per capita GDP balance than we are today.  Little growth is actually required for the US position to be challenged by China.


When Britain was losing power to the US, what do you think British newspapers were printing?  Here's a hint... they weren't promoting their demise.  They only acknowledged it LONG AFTER it happened.  And so shall it be in the US.


Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:23 | 1230498 Ray1968
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European Union is not a country... its a continent. 

If you get to lump all of Europe together then we should include Canada's GDP with ours.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:23 | 1230520 tmosley
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But then we'd have to take Mexico's too.

And they have a monetary, and something resembling a political union--we do not.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:51 | 1230694 Harlequin001
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Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:59 | 1230728 Trying to Understand
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I beg to differ, we do, but mass media has not told anyone about it yet.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 15:44 | 1231219 edotabin
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The media didn't tell anyone for about 60+ years........

Look at the date the US signed......

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:23 | 1230523 falak pema
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a continent that doesn't know if its lost or found...Should consult the lost & found in one year to know whats what!

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:25 | 1230534 trav7777
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it's one currency zone, however

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:33 | 1230567 faustian bargain
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Just think, if the NWO folks get their way, that list will only have one member on it.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 17:31 | 1231760 Mallenet
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Actually - NO! There are 27 EU member states, 15 States use the Euro (which I suspect you are refering to), the rest use their own currencies.  Of course, there is also the one huge anomally - Montenegro (650,000 people), which is not in the EU but uses the Euro as its currency.

I do wish people would learn how to read before they learn how to write!

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 21:21 | 1232483 XPolemic
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Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:22 | 1230856 kaiten
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European Union is not a continent, actually. It´s a political union of 27 european countries, while Europe, the continent, has 50 countries. There are (still) more than 20 european countries outside of the EU.


European Union:

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 15:53 | 1231269 TK7936
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The EU is a united economy and not a continent. The Continent is called Europe and the EU does not cover all continental countries. Just for some facts here...

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 17:26 | 1231729 Mallenet
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Is it really bliss?  Ignorance, I mean?!

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:23 | 1230505 TheGreatPonzi
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I don't understand the point of this article. I think everybody on Zerohedge already knows the GDP and GDP per capita figures of China. 

This "my dick is bigger than yours" contest is becoming quite annoying.

By the way, the IMF is probably right, if you take into account the fact that the US are dead since the 1960s, and have simply postponed their ruin via fractional banking pyramids and accounting frauds. 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:53 | 1230702 Harlequin001
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Very true, if we simply inflate prices by 5% by printing more money has our economy 'grown'?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:24 | 1230511 schizo321437
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Britain probably did similar maths when the US overtook it.


Keep resting on your laurels.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:26 | 1230540 falak pema
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britain will be the new continent of virtual money ...when the City is declared Atlantis...before it sinks...

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:32 | 1230560 TheGreatPonzi
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The author of the article claims he doesn't care if the US are number 1 or not, but he clearly does, as he uses "we" to describe the US economy. 

By the way, it shouldn't be a surprise that a country with a 200-years history of free market is - for now - the leader in GDP per capita, compared with a country which just got out of communism 20 years ago. What matters is not the nominal figures, but the pace of organic growth. 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 21:30 | 1232513 Mec-sick-o
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Rome did it.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:27 | 1230531 kito
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 their "per capital gdp" is irrelevant when discussing their massive economy. they have 1.3 BILLION people!! thats four times the size of our population. and they are in the process of urbanizing 250 million people who live in the sticks. they will be well beyond us soon enough.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:28 | 1230538 trav7777
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isn't enough oil supply for them to do that

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:29 | 1230562 faustian bargain
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well, not us and them at the same time, anyway.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:40 | 1230619 hedgeless_horseman
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Urbanization is probably better than suburbanization, which is what we are stuck with in the USA, as we all slide down the backside of the oil production curve.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:50 | 1230661 tmosley
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Not enough oil, but plenty of energy--especially when you don't give a damn about the environmental effects.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:26 | 1230880 css1971
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Well that all depends whether they have it, or if you have it. No?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:26 | 1230539 Tense INDIAN
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downtrend almost OVER?::


Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:29 | 1230544 critical_mass_soon
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Well you paint a pretty picture for the western nations, but you forget the chinese are very selfless people they operate like the borg, like a collective,i've seen it with my own eyes, a whole family parents, uncles aunts nephews nieces (people who have money) all pay for the next child to go to university. they know together they can acheive alot. and so the whole argument for per capita gets blown straight out of the water. only selfish americans and brits think about how much wealth they can amass regardless of how his own brother is getting by.

Its harsh but its reality.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:57 | 1230733 Harlequin001
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It's to do with credit and your history of being developed from a debt based English system. Take away the credit and that's what you have, a system where money is hard to come by, and so families are forced to operate as a unit.

Without credit, could your children afford to move out and buy a house in their early twenties?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:28 | 1230552 faustian bargain
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He does know where Nikes are manufactured, does he not?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:31 | 1230575 falak pema
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Well maybe the chinese will develop the energy worm like they did the silk worm five thousand years ago. A worm to out worm all fossil fuels and out ant all chinese ants relegated to leisurely life riding energy worms to opium dens for a daily massage parlor of people's hopium. 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:34 | 1230591 Creed
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Tariffs are coming, US domestic manufacturing rebound draweth nigh.


Book it. 


Thanks for the info TD & Kurt.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:47 | 1230639 LawsofPhysics
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So is the next world war.  Could you be a little more specific regarding the timeline?


Also let me know just exactly who we are selling all of our products too?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:49 | 1230675 tmosley
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You're going to need a lot of scissors to cut through the red tape we have accumulated over the last 40 years.

Tariffs aren't going to do anything to get rid of those.  

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:51 | 1230976 falak pema
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that's what the boss of WTO says : Doha round dead! All jump from the global stop the iceberg of protectionism!

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:40 | 1230617 TriggerFinger
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makes me want to go out and get a Happy Meal

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:43 | 1230621 Leraconteur
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PPP actually UNDER estimates the real Chinese economy. You may as well double or triple the figures you see in raw, nominal GDP for China as they do everything on such razor-thin, cut-throat margins, and do it for far cheaper. Chinese per capita PPP is currrently about $7,400 but if you look out the window of ANY Tier 3 or up city in China what you see is a country with a $15,000 PPP per cap GDP.


Comparing China to Mexico, China is obviously more well off when one looks out the window walking around the nation, yet Mexico's PPP is twice that of China's.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:48 | 1230647 LawsofPhysics
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I was waiting for someone to point that out.  More proof the good old U.S. is quickly becoming a third world country.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 14:28 | 1230681 topcallingtroll
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Still it is a small minority that live in those cities.

Arent there 600 million peasants still squatting over holes in the ground to take a dump?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 16:01 | 1231321 RichardENixon
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They actually have a holes to squat over? Such opulence.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 16:09 | 1231357 thefedisscam
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That makes 700 Million + live in urban areas, MORE THAN TWICE As MUCH as the U.S. TOTAL population!!

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 18:15 | 1231959 Leraconteur
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I live in rural China.

They squat over a trench toilet in a public facility that has an auto timer with a motion sensor that flushes the trench every so often. Then they grab their mobile phone, hop on to their bicycle, e-bike, car or in the rare instance pull their cart of recycled cardboard, and then go on about their business.

They live in houses or apartments or a large compound with many rooms arrayed around a central courtyard. Usually small villages or towns or near (1 to 5 km) to Tier 4 cities of 40,000 or fewer inhabitants.

They save about 40% of their income so that slackers in California can have 151 weeks of funemployment, sitting at home all day surfing the net, playing X-box, and ordering pizza.

Like most of the planet, what you 'know' about China is wrong and outdated. To be fair, things change here on a yearly basis so it is a challenge to keep up.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:47 | 1230657 topcallingtroll
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Yeah south americans look rich in comparison and dont have to eat bugs and rats, but china did send them the poison toothpaste that killed about a hundred. Maybe they were jealous of south americas lavish lifestyle, getting to eat decent meat for example.

Do we so quickly forget who we are dealing with? Plastic rice, anyone? Poison toys? Poison milk?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 13:56 | 1230705 Urban Redneck
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The final sentence sinks the entire article-

"However, the idea that it is an economic power comparable to the U.S. is clearly not accurate"

Per capita statistics have nothing to with economic power, unless the author is suggesting Qatar, Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Bermuda, et al. are comparable economic powers to the US. 

Incidentally, in terms of functioning industries that produce the GDP to be divided per capita- the US is rapidly turning financial center centric, just like Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, and Bermuda but with the same impoverished masses found in China.

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