Guest Post: Comparing The 2007 Topping Pattern To Now

Tyler Durden's picture

From Tony Pallotta of MacroStory

Comparing The 2007 Topping Pattern To Now (Updated)

Remember one simple truth, 91.8% of ES Futures daily volume is attributed to day traders and computer algorithms. And since not one single person within that group uses macro data for their intraday trades then it is safe to say the market in the short term has little to do with pricing in macro economic data. Remember how the SPX peaked two months before the great recession actually began. That is not forward looking.

Market participants are already analyzing today's afternoon rally as a sign that this market is resilient, that the economy is still headed for a soft patch and that the bull is alive and well.

I beg to differ but instead would rather highlight two important aspects of this market I suspect is dictating price.
Shorts are scared and longs are delusional. Bernanke not only taught investors to buy every single dip he even has them convinced the removal of the Bernanke put (i.e. QE) has no downside risk to the market.  The move the past two weeks was foreseen by no one and hurt a lot of shorts while making longs feel smart yet again. Even a lot of macro bears were capitulating on the economic data the past two weeks.  That is until today.

The next and probably most important aspect of this market I suspect is psychology.  It's not technicals even in the face of some bearish patterns created today like island reversals. Nor is it macro data although the transitory weakness argument just got a whole lot more difficult to defend.

A number of times I have compared the current topping pattern to that of the 2007 pattern. The reason I suspect they are similar is for psychology during such times does not change. Longs don't want to surrender their money making machines. Shorts are eager to price in economic weakness and the argument about soft landing or recession grow louder.

The magical Point E may now be in for the current market. The similarities are striking of the move to point E in both 07 and 11.  A similar move also occurred in the treasury market as highlighted here. That wild move higher shakes a lot of shorts out of their position, pulls in the last remaining dollars from the longs before finally ripping lower leaving few on the train.

During these Point E's the macro data is confusing as well. For example the NFP reports (and ADP) right before the great recession showed a positive reversal in job growth.  I am sure the debate of soft patch or recession were just as loud then as now.

So if in fact Point E is in (the current chart is not updated with today's price but trust me it was lower) expect a pullback, one last sucking sound of doubt move higher and then hell breaking loose. Which by the way would be a lovely set up for the Bernanke Put round 3.

Lastly I suspect one additional thing keeping a bid in the market is the hope of a debt ceiling deal possibly as early as this coming weekend. How that is bullish is beyond me for it will result in the government agreeing to reduce up to $4 trillion in fiscal stimulus from the economy and easily could put the US back into recession.  Other than a bounce and removal of doubt as if there should be any on this matter there is nothing positive about a debt ceiling deal.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
doesmybuttlookfatinthis's picture

Did you know John Kerry served in Viet Nam?

coppertop's picture

Home prices to fall 40% ?

trampstamp's picture

No.. this time it's global debt defaults. That should make the housing bubble look like a fart bubble in the tub.

Timing is everything so it has to happen within the next couple of weeks for this pattern to play out lol!

Rynak's picture

Debt defaults? We don't need a debt default - we can easily fix it.

Ladies and gentlemen, inspired by two posters in the thread about the "Reduce America's Debt Now Act", i've figured out a way how the USA can easily fix it's debt problem, and even become an export-addicted nation.

It works like this: In every city, we set up booths every sunday. Politicians are required to do "public service" during those days at those locations. The deal is: Groups of 20 people at a time, can make a bid of at least 5 dollars. The cash is used to reduce the debt. Everyone who did bid, may punch a politician in the face. The one who made the highest bid, gets to kick a politician in the nuts with steel toed boots.

Anyone, even politicians themselves, can make a bid. Tourists get four punches/four kicks instead of one, to promote tourism and get foreign capital into the country.

Of course, the problem is that other countries may copycat us. They may offer more days per week during which such events happen, or more politicians. Well folks, get with the time - in a global market with neither borders nor limits, sacrifices need to be made, to stay competitive. And the USA has an amazing opportunity here. It is, after all, the biggest exporter on the planet. Oh yes, it is, you just haven't noticed it yet, because we haven't capitalized yet on the ressource in question. We haven't understood our one true calling and destiny yet:


No nation on the planet exports more crap than the USA.... political crap, cultural crap, economic crap.... it's a literarily endless ressource. And with all the crap, it turns out there is a lot of hate to be harnessed, against those who come up with all the crap. We don't need to stop with politicians... we could extend the scheme to economists, bankers, CEOs, MSM whores, and much more.... no one will be able to beat us! We could finance the entire USA just by punching and kicking the crap out of all the crap, all day - crap, which in turn we then finance from kicking it!

coppertop's picture

wordy, improper subject definition, prepositional errors, structual imbalance. 

Long-John-Silver's picture

I bid $1,000 to Guillotine any politician currently serving in Washington D.C.

coppertop's picture

aren't you the arrogant ass that posts here like mad?

Rynak's picture

No, that was your copycat account, called long-JUAN-silver.

coppertop's picture

Colonel Grevious? Lord Vitahoba? Ginny Crack Corn?

dogbreath's picture

i still think you are on some heavy shit but I'm beginning to think you could be the best troll yet to show up around here.  don't be so shy.

JW n FL's picture

he is big into cutting heads off! I wanna stretch some necks!


I got rope!


it is easier to carry around that that big machine he has! but in all fairness I am willing to share my rope with him.. or others!


we might as well make it a party! they damn sure did when they gang raped us!


Prosecuting Acts of Treason can Be FUN!! tell a Friend!

Frankie Carbone's picture

I'll raise that bid with $1,000 CAD. 

ebworthen's picture

And I'll raise that to one ounce .9999 purity gold, Krugerand would have some form of poetic justice.

Ag Tex's picture

The Krugerand is .9170 pure.  It and the Eagle (.9167) have separate alloy contents mixed in for durability, thus making them harder for garage refiners to melt and repurify.

ebworthen's picture

Damn metallurgists; I'll have to settle for .9170

mr_T's picture

Buffalos .... Biatchezzz.....

rosiescenario's picture

...may I make another modest proposal which will assist both Federal and state governments in reducing their expenses and therefore, their deficits?


We should out source our prison system. This would immediately reduce their operating cost and, I dare say, the rate of recidivism. Let me go so far as to even suggest some of the Wall St. crooks might think twice if they were weigh the risk of being transported to outer Mongolia rather than to a club fed in Lompoc.

jharry's picture

You're a very funny person!  I laughed my butt off!  Thanks!

OS2010's picture

Only 40%?  If they decrease by 80%, will people start buying houses for actually living in, again?

trampstamp's picture

Dam, I would buy 2 for my kids and the dog.

Sudden Debt's picture

All DOW stocks should trade at 10 X yearly dividend.

I wonder how many points it would still have :)


Robslob's picture

The "D" word bitches

Jendrzejczyk's picture

Yen Crucifiction Device, what does your OUIJA Board say?

gorillaonyourback's picture

whiskey bent and hell bound, time to start plundering the rich people around me, i got nothing to loose, go to jail get free room and board.   LMAO  its gitin, its gitin, its gitin pretty hectic.

gorillaonyourback's picture

you wouldn't happen to have angelo mozzilos address would you?

gorillaonyourback's picture

im appointing myself the head of the securities and exchange commision and lets say his ill gotten gains need to be taxed.

snowball777's picture

so you're going to watch porn and ignore everything that orange motherfucker does?

rocker's picture

Excellent Work.  Looks like a possible down trend channel was formed today.  Again, great work! 

coppertop's picture

The wizard knows the answer     :->      

Electric Wizard - Vinum Sabbathi

ebworthen's picture

...well, I suppose he is playing an SG...but...

kevinearick's picture

Organic Chemistry

The action occurs among electrons, surrounding a society of self-replicating protons, which act as the gravity counterbalance, with a semi-neutral buffer. What happens when an external proton meets a free radical?

You want electron flow through a circuit to sustain productive work. Some of those electrons pair up. Where do all the electrons come from? What is a resistor? What is a resistor to the resistor? What is the effect of Family Law on the circuit?

Installing a one-way circuit, attempting to force electrons down that path, on time, with no return, is pretty damn stupid, if you are looking to open the NPV window for constructive employment. On the other hand, if you are looking for a big bang as your last instruction in the loop…

DNA has a built-in instruction set that casts off addictive bonds. What happens if you disable it for 3 generations, and poison the food supply, to create a world addicted to scarcity? You ever notice how people/organizations behave when the welfare checks get distributed? Notice the similarity in these rolling recessions? It’s hard to pay attention, much less anticipate, on drugs, in an automated pharmacy.

So, now I am in a town where the 75% NPV excess capacity is strikingly obvious, where they readily sell their kids to $10/hr labor, which is just enough to keep the “non-profit” slumlord loss-leaders. Do you know what it is costing you to store all those houses, boats, and cars crammed into the pipeline?

They must hoard. They cannot help themselves, because they are genetically predisposed to do so as they enter an economy where all the traffic lights with the same momentum are green, and all the lights in the other direction are red. Inflate prices 3X and place a 30% off sale in the window. The herd comes running every time, seeking something for nothing, which is the inverse of effective investment.

Up until now, the market could stay irrational longer than the individual could remain rational. That is no longer the case, because you have an exit, but the market does not. You cannot fix a stupid economy in real time. How do you want to transform all that excess capacity?

From the market perspective, land is dear. From the individual perspective, land is cheap, unless you have been led to believe you are an immobilized proton, which simply cannot face sunk cost.


coppertop's picture

vague, nonspecific, disorganized